without_worries

Is XRP about to collapse faster than a vegan at a BBQ? The idea “ XRP heading for 70% correction to 60 cents? ” was published at circa $2.90 after price action rallied almost 1000% throughout 2024. Price action continued to climb until $3.30 in the weeks ahead. Naturally many took umbrage to any publisher who dared to suggest investors might do something as awful as, you know, sell after huge profits. Because making money is not the game, on no. Pledging your allegiance and unshakable faith is the true path to financial freedom. And if you believe that, I’ll tell you another... Trump and & Co. are taking up philanthropy. The piffle from the congregation continues to entertain “Swift will be replaced by Ripple”, “Blackrock are going in big,”, “Why don’t you learn to read charts?”, every market top is the same. Liquid Euphoria. The technical A noteworthy development prints on the above weekly chart. A development that was fatal to any long investor who continued to ignore previous cycles. Once price action closed a candle body under the 50 week Simple Moving Average, the market dropped like a stone. After the bearish divergence print in July (same strength as the bullish divergence print in March of 2020 at 14 cents) price action went on to break market structure. Bulls were unfazed by this development it would seem, but now a more serious development, the 50 week SMA breakdown. Support and resistance is currently around 70 cents. Support never confirmed following the breakout. Previous collapses in price action align nicely with a 70% correction that would take price action back to the breakout should that correction strength repeat. Conclusions XRP has done it again, fooled the faithful into thinking this time it’s different. “Institutional money’s coming,” “the banks are loading up,” “Swift is finished!” Yeah, sure. And I’m the next Pope. Look, I get it, every cycle needs its pantomime hero. However this isn’t a revolution; it’s déjà vu in high definition. The chart above doesn’t lie, the same structure, the same signals, and now the same 50-week breakdown that’s historically ended in tears. It’s not witchcraft, it’s statistics: Close below the 50-week SMA? → -60% to -80% every single time. RSI? Rolling over like a fainting goat. Support? Never confirmed. It’s all right there, hiding in plain sight while influencers keep shouting “bullish!” from their YouTube mansions. Could it bounce? Sure. Dead cats do that too. But when every lower high is accompanied by louder noise and weaker conviction, you’ve got yourself less of an “investment” and more of a live action psychology experiment. So, is XRP on death’s door? Let’s just say it’s knocking politely and the door’s already open. Ww Disclaimer This isn’t financial advice. Obviously. If you’re basing your investment strategy on what some bloke on the internet with access to a TradingView account says, you deserve whatever cinematic tragedy comes next. I don’t work for Ripple, I don’t hate Ripple, and I definitely don’t think Ripple’s going to replace Swift, unless Swift suddenly stops working and forgets how to money. So, do your own research, manage your own risk, and for the love of all things holy, stop confusing hopium with a business model. If XRP moons, great, tell me all about it while I pretend to care. If it crashes 80%, well… don’t say the moving averages didn’t warn you.

An opening statement: The idea is not restricted to Ethereum Classic (ETC), many legacy tokens are showing the same sequence of events as highlighted in the chart above. The recent update to the OTHERS total idea identifies a few. Story so far The Crypto gambling mania of older tokens continues to entice many. Market participants were told financial armageddon is around the corner, prepare now. A corner that turned out to be a roundabout, an endless road to nowhere with changing views. “ETF is coming Ww!” “Trump will approve new Crypto fund blah blah”, the inbox is filled with such messaging. The project fundamentals are now irrelevant, it seems, as folks hope and pray for a greater fool to come along and release them from the stress of holding dead weight. But what if the crypto fool supply is drying up? Then what? The technical warning The above 8 chart of Ethereum classic is typical of many legacy tokens. Like stone skipping. That is, you throw this little flat stone across the pond and at first it’s amazing, it’s like, boing! boing! boing! You feel like a physics genius. However what’s actually happening, properly, scientifically, is the stone’s cheating gravity for a bit. It hits the water at just the right angle, makes this tiny lift like a miniature water trampoline. But every time it hits, it loses a bit of energy. Bit of speed, bit of spin, bit of dignity. Eventually it’s like, ‘Nah, I’m done,’ and just plops in. That’s it. It’s run out of the stuff that keeps it skipping. It’s the same as me after two beers trying to dance, starts strong lots of energy, then gravity wins. Straight down. Splash.. Sentiment No shortage of long ideas on the platform. . To be a contrarian is to look the other direction when everyone else says the same thing. Not easy, but imperative. Like many legacy charts, the Bitcoin pairs exhibit broken market structures. ETC.btc chart, broken market structure Conclusions There’s no polite way to say this, Ethereum Classic, like many of its legacy peers is running on fumes. Every bounce looks impressive until you zoom out and realise it’s just another stone skip on the surface of a dying pond. Each lower high is a polite reminder that gravity still works. The chart doesn’t lie: Momentum’s gone. Liquidity’s gone. Belief is on life support. Price continues to cling to the same horizontal band it’s bounced off for half a decade, the so-called “water line where surface tension and angular momentum meet.”* Below it? Silence. You’ll always find someone calling this “undervalued,” or “ready for a comeback.” But let’s be honest, that’s nostalgia speaking. What used to be innovation is now a museum exhibit, a relic from the days when everyone thought “blockchain” was going to save the world. Sure, maybe there’s a pop left in it, one final gasp, a skip before the splash. But when it happens, don’t mistake physics for faith. Eventually, every stone sinks. Ww ============================================================ Disclaimer This isn’t financial advice, obviously. If you’re buying Ethereum Classic because someone on the internet said it might bounce, that’s not investing, that’s performance art. I don’t hold ETC, I don’t want to, and if it suddenly moon-shots I’ll still sleep fine. Do your own research, manage your own risk, and please for your own sanity stop expecting miracles from assets that peaked during the Obama administration. If it goes up, brilliant. If it goes down, well… gravity wins again.

In just over a week from now (currently October 23rd, 2025), Bitcoin’s 3 week chart may confirm a bearish engulfing candle (blue circles), unless price recovers $115k. If you’re a fan of statistics (as I am), you’ll know what comes next: look left. Every single time a 3 week bearish engulfing candle printed with RSI at 57 or below, the result was the same, collapse. Don’t shoot the messenger; all I’m doing is looking left while influencers are looking up. A confirmed close here would mark the fifth such candle in Bitcoin’s history. Each prior event retraced to the Fibonacci 0.382, placing a downside target near $40,000. Right back into the historical mean reversion zone. Such a drop would almost certainly trigger forced liquidations, particularly for leveraged institutional positions (yes, that means MicroStrategy). Debt and drawdowns make for a dangerous combination when gravity reappears. On the 15 day chart, the situation is already deteriorating, price has exited the rising support channel, exactly as shown in the main 3 week chart above. A strong, high volume reversal from the bulls is required to invalidate this setup. 15 day chart What about the $160k idea? For those following closely, you’ll recall “ The End of Bitcoin Begins in 40 Days @ ~$160k (October 2025) ”, the analysis remains technically valid as long as structure holds. Has market structure failed? That's exactly what this idea aims to determine. If a 3 week candle body closes below the rising support channel, then it's over. There'll be no new all time high in this cycle, $126,000 was the top as forecast back in 2023 . Until then, the market hangs on a knife edge. Any clues which way the market takes next? Indeed there is and it's not from crypto Twitter. The Bond market never lies. Specifically, the 3 month US Treasury yield, which is in free fall. A classic leading indicator of liquidity stress and risk-off sentiment. Every time the bond market collapses while equities remain elevated, technology stocks follow soon after. And Bitcoin, like it or not, trades more like a high beta tech asset than an inflation hedge. Tech versus the 90-day Bond market For those still clinging to the “Bitcoin is an inflation hedge!” narrative, the chart disagrees. If you thought the $19B liquidation event was bad, wait until "Hold my beer" Micheal Saylor reaches the point of forced liquidated on unmanageable levels of debt interest. “ Everything Money Plus ” describes the situation perfectly, have a lookie. Conclusions Well, here we are again. Bitcoin’s about to do what it always does. Everyone’s screaming “supercycle,” influencers are drawing triangles on charts like they’ve cracked the code to the universe, and meanwhile, the candle’s about to slap them all in the face. If this 3 week setup confirms, price is going to $40–45k. Not because of some secret cabal or “market manipulation,” but because… that’s what happens when you buy something that went up 700% and convince yourself it’ll never go down again. Every cycle it’s the same story. They say, “This time it’s different.” But no. It’s exactly the same. Only this time, you’ve got a Discord group cheering you on while you lose your house. So, will Bitcoin crash? Maybe. Will people still tweet laser eyes while it happens? Absolutely. Then they’ll blame the FED, the ETFs, the moon’s gravitational pull anything but themselves. So yeah, maybe it bounces. Maybe it doesn’t. But when the market dumps and the influencers vanish faster than your portfolio, just remember: the chart did warn you. You just didn’t listen. Ww ============================================== Disclaimer Alright, (puts dram down to one side) let’s get this straight, this isn’t financial advice. Obviously. If you’re taking trading tips from strangers on the internet with adorable profile pictures, that’s on you. I don’t work for a hedge fund, I don’t have insider info, and I’m definitely not sitting in a room with ten monitors shouting “buy the dip.” I’m just looking at the same chart as everyone else and going, “Yeah, that looks a bit grim.” So, if you sell your house, remortgage your cat, and go all-in on a candle pattern, don’t come crying when it goes the other way. That’s not a “rug pull.” That’s just bad life choices. Crypto’s volatile. It goes up, it goes down, sometimes both in the same hour. So, do your own research. Manage your own risk. And if you lose money, at least learn something, because that’s the only guaranteed return in this market.

This idea is not active on publication. Are we clear? Great, read on.. The Story Markets have an uncanny ability to fool the largest number of participants at the most critical moments. Bitcoin is once again setting that stage. While the crowd celebrates new highs and “the strongest bull market ever,” the structure is quietly repeating the same pattern that preceded every major cycle top. At the same time influencers across social media continue to gaslight audiences on the promises of “Alt season” in quarter 4, even though the cycle top is ridiculously close the charts are signalling something is not quite right. Do the following charts suggest green months ahead? Each bull market, 2013, 2017, 2021 produced a sequence of consecutive green six-month candles before exhaustion: * 2012 – 2013 → 5 green six-month candles * 2015 – 2017 → 6 candles * 2020 – 2021 → 4 candles * 2023 – 2025 → now at 5 candles Six month candle count in each bull market It’s not the count that matters, it’s the context. Every cycle ends in euphoria, and euphoria is exactly what a 6-month Gravestone DOJI represents: a candle of rejection formed at the height of optimism. On shorter timeframes, that same behaviour repeats. The 1 month and 3 month charts both print hammers, powerful reversal setups when they appear at cycle extremes, not continuation zones. 1 month hammer 3 month hammer 6 month Gravestone DOJI What’s Next The combination of the 1-month hammer, 3-month hammer, and 6-month Gravestone DOJI forms what can only be described as a trap structure, a technical pattern that invites late buyers before liquidity vanishes. Historically, when Bitcoin posts a Gravestone DOJI on the higher timeframe following four to six green candles, it signals a pause or the beginning of distribution. The takeaway is simple: Momentum is slowing Structure is repeating Sentiment is euphoric If the 6-month candle confirms red in early 2026, the trap will have sprung and history will have rhymed again. Conclusions This isn’t the end of Bitcoin, but it may be the end of this particular cycle.
A Gravestone DOJI doesn’t kill a trend on its own, but at the tail of a multi-year rally, it’s the market whispering “take profit while you still can.” They’ve built the perfect trap, the market makers, and the majority are cheering it on. Until confirmation proves otherwise, caution is not bearish, it’s survival. Ww ======================================== Disclaimer This post is for educational purposes only and reflects personal opinion, not financial advice.
I hold no position in Bitcoin and have no vested interest in the outcome of this analysis. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and unpredictable; always conduct your own research, manage your risk carefully, and base decisions on your own strategy and timeframe. Patience and confirmation always outlast emotion.

Up’October is widely expected, myself included. Statistically speaking the 2nd October post Halving is a strong green month. All the influencers are talking about it. That was until the largest forced liquidation event in the history of the asset class wiped out $19billion. What a number. One man, one tweet = mass panic. The liquidations cascaded one after the other sending a number of alternative tokens all the way to near zero before quickly recovering. Confidence in the Ponzi scheme has taken quite a hit. In fairness market participants must accept some blame, 80% of the money entering the space was on leverage products with the small remainder into spot positions. In summary the liquidity in the spot market is near non existent. No one is touching it, which was first identified in the " Is alt season dead? " idea. The technical analysis Price action follows an upward trending channel on the above 4 day chart. Price action has recently rejected the medium line and confirmed it as resistance for the 3rd time. Look left, previous events sent price action to the lower side of the channel. Is this time different? “Strong” and “weak”, notice the labels here? When price action tests the Gaussian channel (uptrend or downtrend) it is expected to bounce strongly as a confirmation of the current momentum behind the trend. The test at this moment is a 4 day candle that prints today, the reaction to the channel has been anything but strength, it is complete weakness. This is what happens when interest in the asset is sub-zero, buyers are nowhere to be seen. ** It is highly likely price action shall test the lower side of the channel should a candle body print inside the channel ** In order words, price action will correct to $92k should it drop in a straight line. Looking left a period of up to 30 days is likely to follow before a test. The channel is rising and price action would likely be around $102k by mid-November. ** This will be the reddest October ever! ** $102k, a line in the sand Price action at this level cannot fail support as shown on the above 4 day chart. Broken market structure would be confirmed should a candle body close under this level. That would mean Bitcoin entered a bear market and trend reversal. Conclusions Bitcoin has now reached a point in the structure where the reaction must be strong, but it isn’t. The rejection from the channel midline for the third time and the subsequent weak Gaussian test are not the signs of a healthy uptrend. If price action fails to hold, it risks closing a 4-day candle body inside the Gaussian channel, a condition that historically precedes a move to the lower boundary. Based on the current slope, that lower test aligns near $92,000 tomorrow and $102k by mid-November. There’s still room for recovery, but it must happen immediately. The longer Bitcoin trades near channel support with low volume, the greater the probability of structural failure. Should a confirmed close occur below $102k, that would officially mark the first trend reversal since the 2024 post-halving rally, a shift from expansion to contraction. In simple terms, a break below this level transitions Bitcoin from bull to bear. For now, October’s historical strength remains a statistic, not a guarantee. The market doesn’t care what month it is, only where the liquidity is. Ww ==================== Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and expresses personal opinion, not financial advice. I hold no position in Bitcoin and no vested interest in it. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and unpredictable. Always conduct your own analysis, manage your risk carefully, and never trade solely based on another person’s idea. Patience, confirmation, and risk control, the only things that survive every market cycle.Price action is now inside the channel. It has until Monday October 20th to not confirm, this idea is active otherwise.Price action has 12 hrs to get above 115k to avoid channel confirmation. Place your bets for a green Up'tober. Price action has corrected -14% so far in October with 10 days until the month end. Influencers talk about a Green quarter 4, with +40% gain typically found in a post Halving October. The truth is, Bitcoin is the same price it was a year ago. That is the first time in Bitcoin's history you could have said that. Is the penny dropping yet?Despite the bonce from 103k the bulls have failed to push price action up and over 115k, at best to 111.5k, where we're now observing strong rejection from the upper channel. The was a speculator display of weakness from bulls. Activation of this idea does not mean a new all time high will not print. However it does mean October is likely to be quite red, which is a challenge to previous post halving Green Octobers of circa +40% All the evidence of a dying asset class continues to unfold in charts at various timeframes, few want to believe it. 4 dayThis little red candle on the 4 day channel is something you have to watch closely, bull or bear. Although it appears outside the channel, the volume is weak, the momentum more so compared to past event. If it fails to close outside and turns bearish on the channel instead, then it'll be straight down to the low 90's as originally forecast in this idea. I know the influencers are continuing to pump out the green quarter 4 alt season narrative still, but the evidence for that is sub-zero.Forecast update to the low $90k area. Unless the bulls can stop this 4 day Bearish engulfing candle print by tomorrow, not feeling it. High negative divergence. The forecast is only $16k away from Saylor's liquidation area. Exciting times!Now is the time to watch how the weekly candles close over the course of November. Should the weekly candle body close inside the channel, in full, then the normal post market top correction of -70% can be expected. This would return price action to the $30k area.Strikes $100k on the nose.. Was there volume waiting? Not a cent. This is incredibly weak. $96k is the next support test. That'll be a full $30k correction, which might attract some interest. However if Saylor is indeed liquidating positions,,, It is possible, the size of volume sold is not retail. Wait for $96k before considering long opportunities. If price action fails to recover $100k by November 17th.. it is over for Bitcoin for many years.

As everyone falls off their chair at the prospect of $14k Ethereum.. a messily 220% return (who in crypto gets out of bed for that?), you’ve got to wonder, what percentage of us would lift the bed sheets for Ethereum at $1 as if it were December 2015? As it turns out, very few. When I first purchased ADA , MATIC (ideas linked) at 3 and 2 cents, respectively, few were interested. And more recently with XCN . Each of those had a market cap similar in size to the chart above. Back in those days my specific problem was not finding those opportunities, it was holding onto them. Discovery of a 100x, 500x, or even a 1000x opportunity is not a challenge. Holding on to it is. The up and coming recession, bear market and expected collapse in equities, all of those things are irrelevant when long exposure is taken from such an early stage. The project is XDB Chain What’s so special about this low volume nano cap? There’s Fundamentals and Technical analysis. The XDB chain project is a fork based off the proven Stellar lumens protocol, as it was XRP before it. The project has adopted the core features and capabilities of the latest Stellar network (v19), including the token certification service and on-chain trading (DEX). In their words: “The platform was created to support the fast and affordable transfer of consumer digital assets such as branded currencies" There’s plenty of recent rumour etc on social media circles, will let you do your own research. On the technical analysis The above weekly chart makes for an interesting study, during the month of November 2024 a development not seen since April 2022 (blue circles) prints. Price enters the Gaussian channel. It was not until this month, October 2025, did the channel change from red to green. This is important. When the colour flips from red to green, it signals that the slope of the Gaussian average has turned positive, or price has crossed above the central line of the Gaussian channel. This is interpreted as an uptrend signal, momentum has shifted from bearish to bullish. Latterly a 2 year consolidation period now prints an RSI resistance breakout. The first and second resistances are shown at 60x (6000%) and 130x (130,000%). Conclusions The chart above represents one of those rare conditions that technical traders wait years to see. A 2 year consolidation, a Gaussian band colour flip, and an RSI breakout from multi-year resistance, these are not everyday occurrences. Does this guarantee performance? Absolutely not. But when historical patterns align this cleanly, the potential reward to risk ratio becomes exceptional. If momentum continues and support holds, the projections point toward 60x and 130x levels, equivalent to 6,000% and 130,000% returns respectively. Those numbers sound absurd until you remember: ADA, MATIC, and XCN once sat in similar structures, with low volume, and largely ignored by the market. Still, as always, holding is the hardest part. A setup like this requires conviction, patience, and most of all, discipline to avoid overexposure. $1,000 to $1 million sounds incredible, but markets rarely reward impatience. A bullish bias is only valid while structure confirms. Lose that confirmation, and the opportunity resets. For now, the data speaks for itself: Gaussian flip (October 2025) : momentum turns bullish RSI breakout: first in over two years Price structure: higher low + band confirmation Is it possible price action continues correcting? For sure, nothing is certain. Is it probable? No. Ww ======================== Disclaimer This analysis is for **educational purposes only** and reflects my personal opinion, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are speculative and volatile; prices can fluctuate rapidly and may result in total loss of capital. Always conduct your own due diligence, understand your risk tolerance, and never trade based on a single analysis or forecast. Previous low cap ideas: ADA @ 3 cents in December 2018, 9000% or 90x MATIC or Polygon @ 2 cents, 13000% or 130x XCN @ 0.00077 cents, 6600% or 66xWeekly GRM support confirmed. Let's return in a few months to see what's what.

As everyone falls off their chair at the prospect of $14k Ethereum.. a messily 220% return (who in crypto gets out of bed for that?), you’ve got to wonder, what percentage of us would lift the bed sheets for Ethereum at $1 as if it were December 2015? As it turns out, very few. When I first purchased ADA , MATIC (ideas linked) at 3 and 2 cents, respectively, few were interested. And more recently with XCN . Each of those had a market cap similar in size to the chart above. Back in those days my specific problem was not finding those opportunities, it was holding onto them. Discovery of a 100x, 500x, or even a 1000x opportunity is not a challenge. Holding on to it is. The up and coming recession, bear market and expected collapse in equities, all of those things are irrelevant when long exposure is taken from such an early stage. The project is XDB Chain What’s so special about this low volume nano cap? There’s Fundamentals and Technical analysis. The XDB chain project is a fork based off the proven Stellar lumens protocol, as it was XRP before it. The project has adopted the core features and capabilities of the latest Stellar network (v19), including the token certification service and on-chain trading (DEX). In their words: “The platform was created to support the fast and affordable transfer of consumer digital assets such as branded currencies “Is XDB Chain the Next Big Thing in Crypto?”, youtube.com/watch?v=k6gnLmIYc7I There’s plenty of recent rumour etc on social media circles, will let you do your own research. On the technical analysis The above weekly chart makes for an interesting study, during the month of November 2024 a development not seen since April 2022 (blue circles) prints. Price enters the Gaussian channel. It was not until this month, October 2025, did the channel change from red to green. This is important. When the colour flips from red to green, it signals that the slope of the Gaussian average has turned positive, or price has crossed above the central line of the Gaussian channel. This is interpreted as an uptrend signal, momentum has shifted from bearish to bullish. Latterly a 2 year consolidation period now prints an RSI resistance breakout. The first and second resistances are shown at 60x (6000%) and 130x (130,000%). Conclusions The chart above represents one of those rare conditions that technical traders wait years to see. A 2 year consolidation, a Gaussian band colour flip, and an RSI breakout from multi-year resistance, these are not everyday occurrences. Does this guarantee performance? Absolutely not. But when historical patterns align this cleanly, the potential reward to risk ratio becomes exceptional. If momentum continues and support holds, the projections point toward 60x and 130x levels, equivalent to 6,000% and 130,000% returns respectively. Those numbers sound absurd until you remember: ADA, MATIC, and XCN once sat in similar positions structures, with low volume, largely ignored. Still, as always, holding is the hardest part. A setup like this requires conviction, patience, and most of all, discipline to avoid overexposure. $1,000 to $1 million sounds incredible, but markets rarely reward impatience. A bullish bias is only valid while structure confirms. Lose that confirmation, and the opportunity resets. For now, the data speaks for itself: Gaussian flip (October 2025) : momentum turns bullish RSI breakout: first in over two years Price structure: higher low + band confirmation Is it possible price action continues correcting? For sure, nothing is certain. Is it probable? No. Ww ======================== Disclaimer This analysis is for **educational purposes only** and reflects my personal opinion, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are speculative and volatile; prices can fluctuate rapidly and may result in total loss of capital. Always conduct your own due diligence, understand your risk tolerance, and never trade based on a single analysis or forecast. Previous low cap ideas: ADA @ 3 cents in December 2018, 9000% or 90x MATIC or Polygon @ 2 cents, 13000% or 130x XCN @ 0.00077 cents, 6600% or 66xActive on publication.

...if… and a big if, past resistance confirms as support. A few months ago the idea “ Ethereum blockchain to $6.6k before dying a slow death ” was published by myself in August. The premise behind the bearish outlook is simple enough, the legacy support curve has failed. A recent question to this idea “Ww what would it take to invalidate this bearish outlook?” Please remember, I do not hold this asset or have any interest in it. My opinion is impartial. Two questions all traders and investors must ask: 1. What is the trend? 2. Support and resistance, which is it? You’d be surprised how few actually master those questions, instead preferring the ramblings of the influencer. If you’re reading this, congratulations, you already have patience by making it past the headline. So few do! Let’s have an example: On Ethereum: Question 1 is positive, an uptrend. Ethereum printed a higher low back in April at $1600 Question 2 is negative, price action is very much trading under resistance. I tell you all that to tell you this, it is entirely possible question 2 returns positive with a break of resistance. If a resistance breakout of $4400 occurs AND a 2 week candle body close (ignore wicks) on or above $4500, then in all likelihood the bearish outlook is void. A resistance breakout and support confirmation would see price action continue to rally until $14k, the cycle top. The technical analysis A new 2 month candle shall print next month (November) on the above 2 month chart. Over the last year price action saw resistance at 3400. It is incredible that price action continued to trade in this area for so long until July 2025 breaking the 1st resistance. The recent liquidation event saw price action once again test the 3400 area. It was no surprise price action saw strong demand from this level after trading as resistance for over a year. The folks that panic sold at this level almost certainly made a mistake. Price action is now about to do something very important. IF price action closes the 2 month candle above 4400 in the month of October, then you’ll have a positive answer to question 2! A confirmation of support on past resistance. Positive answers to questions one and two is a green light for a long entry. And more importantly a cancellation of the bearish idea. Why $14k forecast? For this we return to the log growth curve. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is despite the forecast, an asset rotating from growth to how can I say “Nothing burger”. If you buy the top you’ll be holding onto an asset that trades sideways for 10+ years. Ethereum continues to see growth rising until its breakdown in April 2022, the red arrow. A break of growth does not mean price action cannot continue to rise, but it does mean the rate of growth is now in decline. The medium growth (black line) that was past support is now due a resistance test. Why should this offer resistance now when it broke up in March 2021? Each market top of Ethereum (just like Bitcoin) saw price action top out at a reduced resistance Fibonacci level (black arrows). The next level down just so happens to be beneath the medium growth curve. Coincidence? 2 week There’s more.. the same forecast is also matched by a Cup and Handle pattern. Now that’s more than a coincidence. 2 week Cup and Handle Conclusions Ethereum’s technical structure is approaching a decisive moment. The 2 month close for October will likely determine whether the long standing resistance at $4,400–$4,800 transitions into confirmed support, a shift that would completely invalidate the prior bearish outlook. If this confirmation occurs, the path toward $14,000 becomes not just plausible but technically justified. The convergence of a resistance support flip, the log growth curve retest, and a textbook Cup and Handle formation would signal strong alignment across multiple timeframes, a rare occurrence. However, perspective is essential. A 220% move from current levels, while substantial, is not unprecedented in this market and may even lag behind opportunities elsewhere, particularly in equities and emerging sectors. Ethereum’s macro trend remains in a phase of decelerating growth; even if this rally unfolds, it may represent the final euphoric leg before a prolonged consolidation era. In short, Ethereum to $14k if and only if resistance confirms as support. Until then, patience, not prediction, remains the edge. Ww Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion, not financial advice. I don’t hold a position in Ethereum and have no vested interest in the outcome of this analysis. Always do your own research, manage risk, and make decisions based on your own strategy and timeframe. Markets reward patience, not predictions.Remember, 4400 by Friday 31st, October validates this idea. Also remember the disclaimer, I don’t hold a position in Ethereum and have no vested interest in the outcome of this analysis. If you don't remind me I'll not update it!"Remember, 4400 by Friday 31st, October validates this idea." Remember this idea was written as a request to answer the question: >> A few months ago the idea “Ethereum blockchain to $6.6k before dying a slow death” was published by myself in August. The premise behind the bearish outlook is simple enough, the legacy support curve has failed. A recent question to this idea “Ww what would it take to invalidate this bearish outlook?” << It was unlikely to happen given the conditions of probability. Wait for price action to correct below $2500 before sniffing around again. And ignore this "institutions are buying the dip" Piffle, instead give your full attention to the chart. 4 day chart

As the Bitcoin bull market nears completion in preparation for the 2 year bear market, influencers continue to gaslight their audience on wonderful “alt token season” that never came. Officially there has not been an alt token season. Technically speaking it is impossible for one to now exist in the normal scheme of things if the 4 year market cycle theory is to be maintained. The OTHERS market total clearly informs us the market is exiting the cycle without an alt season during this Bitcoin bull market. Animal spirts must be set to 'Max' if the bulls are going to ignore this information. As you study various monthly charts you’ll notice there’s a lot of pain about to be delivered bullish market participants who ignore charts. The PEPE token is one such example. On the above weekly chart you will see: 1. Broken market structure 2. A trend reversal, higher lows higher highs are now replaced with lower lows higher lows. 3. Past support confirms resistance. 4. The 2 month chart below prints a “Gravestone DOJI” candle. Please don’t ignore this, it is a candle that has the power to push price action right down to the basement. Hope on over to recent Tradingview ideas and you’ll see the majority are ignoring those facts. Incredible isn’t it? Remember over 90% of traders will fail to make a profit. Don't be the 90%. tradingview.com/symbols/PEPEUSDT/ideas/?sort=recent Moreover many are forecasting eye catching targets. Is it possible price action climbs to the stars as many are calling for? Absolutely. Is it probable? no! Ww 2 month chartDon't get me wrong, there are some tokens that will recover from the recent collapse. However PEPE is not one of them... a further 70% correction is imminent. The BTC pair of this token has broken the next level of market structure, following the first that was observed on publication. 3 day chart 3 day dollar chart. - head and shoulder / or as I see it, the middle finger.

The above 11 day chart (don’t ask) tells us someone somewhere bought this token at $3.85 in March of 2024 before watching a 92% collapse in price action. The marketplace is now gripped by fear. Are sellers today correct, get out now before the remaining -8% to zero strikes? It certainly appears that way. Support and resistance Price action has confirmed support on past resistances. Both legacy and the recent corrective resistance. This is also true of RSI. The trend For the first time in 21 months price action has printed a higher low. Divergence Price action prints positive divergence (USD and Bitcoin pairs) equivalent to that of August 2023 before an strong move printed. Hook reversal pattern A textbook hook reversal pattern has printed. You’ll find those patterns at market bottoms. The psychology of why they print is an interesting subject in its own right: Candle by candle starting from ‘1st candle’ 1) The bears stepped in, pushing price down closing the week lower than it began with significant pressure, hence red candle. 2) The bears stepped in again and closed price action lower than the week began, but two things have changed from the previous week: a) The wick is lower, indicating sellers are weakening. b) The body of the candle is thinner. This tells that despite all the selling pressure of the bears, the bulls matched it. At this point you start to see something significant. A very thin body with a long wick above. This candle is called a ‘morning star’ and is confirmed with a ‘green candle’ in the following trading session, which we have. The psychology here is the bulls entered deep into the bears territory with not as much resistance as the previous session. 4) The first green candle. A ‘indecision candle’. The bears are confirmed ‘exhausted’, bulls closed price action higher than the previous trading session. The height of the wick is important here. Higher is stronger for future impulsive moves. Finally we have arrive at the stage that attracts the most interest, the selling pressure is soaked up by the bulls, with future sell orders not only offered by those who bought at the pivot. This is why you often only see an “up only” move in price action afterwards. Conclusions So, what have we learned? Basically, everyone panicked, sold their tokens like they were on fire and now we’re all sitting here pretending to be experts because a candle looks a bit different. *Ooooh, hook reversal pattern!* Yeah, alright mate, it’s a green line going up after a red one went down. Calm down. The truth is: the bears are knackered, the bulls are sniffing around again, and if history repeats, we might actually see this thing shoot up. Or it won’t. That’s the game, innit? People want certainty but it’s crypto, it’s like betting on which one of your drunk uncles will fall down first at Christmas dinner. Odds are high, outcomes are unpredictable. So yeah, maybe it’s a bottom. Maybe it’s the start of a big run. Or maybe we’ll all be here in two weeks going, “Remember when we thought that was bullish? Ha!” , either way, don’t bet your nan’s house on it. WwActive on publication.