without_worries

Bitcoin has officially entered the 2-day Gaussian Channel, a technical event that has historically coincided with prolonged sideways price action. Looking left, past instances suggest this phase can last several months, often frustrating both bulls and bears before a clear trend emerges. Key Observations Price is currently trading inside the 2D Gaussian channel. Historically, this has led to ranging/sideways price behaviour rather than immediate trend continuation. The sideways trading range can take up to 90 (red circles), meaning the end of November before a meaningful direction change in price action. Potential Scenarios Bullish Case – Price action has not yet confirmed the sideways trading period. A 2 day candle must close on or above $114k by August 31st. Bearish Case – failure to close above $114k by August 31st would confirm the sideways trading period. Furthermore it would confirm the end of the Bitcoin bull market, the technical cycle ends now in 30 days. The end of the bull market?! Unless you think this time is different, every cycle prior has ended in 526 days or less post halving, leaving the market with 30 days until the technical top. That's why whales have been gladly using retail exit liquidity those past few weeks. They have a plan, retail has influencers. Conclusion The entry into the 2-day Gaussian channel signals a likely multi month sideways market for Bitcoin. Patience will be key, traders should prepare for a rangebound environment while positioning for the eventual breakout. Ww ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Do your own research and manage risk appropriately.Bitcoin Bulls are going to need liquid hopium to prevent this monthly candle print in 48hrs The last time we saw a candle like that was the 2019 market top, price action crashed 70% from $10k to $3.3k at the time.Price action has now closed inside the 2 day Gaussian channel. If history is our teacher we should give this signal our full attention. A 2 day signal is an indication of a lengthy sideways trading period, 2 months minimum. Historically speaking the month of September is awful for Bitcoin price action. Indeed look left at previous years and you’ll notice the month of August closed with a bearish reversal candle. Whoever was selling with volume at $125k was the 5%, devoid of influencer influence and social media nonsense. Since December 2023 the market has returned 600% with now approximately 40 days remaining of this Bitcoin bull market, technically speaking. If we look left at the 2 day Gaussian channel entry as the market cycle is so close to completion we see: May 2021 August 2019 January 2018 Do you think this time is different? Ww

** forecast to print in the next 60 days at most ** 45% return after 4 years, that is what fans of Ethereum will rejoice over once the forecast to $6.6k is met. 45%, what a tremendous consumption of time and energy for such a insignificant return. A return that is largely evaporated when inflation is factored in. By comparison Gold as printed 100% return since and Ethereum 0% The argument foundations The much hyped Bitcoin ETF was said to start a liquidity rush into other assets. No such thing ever happened, it was a liquidity trap, not a catapult. The folks using Bitcoin ETFs today have no interest in selling gains for transfer into Ethereum, You’d be lucky if the majority of ETF users knew what a Bitcoin address looked like. From the market lows of November 2022 Bitcoin has returned 700% until 125k. Ethereum during the same period, 300%. In previous cycles Ethereum achieved 18,000% in 2017 and 5000% in 2021 as fresh Bitcoin liquidity entered the market. By early 2024 the Bitcoin ETF was introduced, removing any opportunity of fresh liquidity flowing into Ethereum as in previous cycles. The recent idea on the OTHERS market total asked the question “Is alt season dead?”, clearly yes. There was never going to be an alt token season in this cycle with the ETF introduction and regulation success afforded to Bitcoin. If you wanted risk exposure to Crypto, you bought Bitcoin. Everything else was a regulation nightmare. An alt token season typically requires 3 months minimum. This current cycle has around 40 days until completion. Unless this time is different, the halving cycles since the start of Bitcoin has with pin point accuracy informed the market when the top was in. See below. Complete alt token collapse? Yes. The signal to cause millions of tokens in circulation to drop to oblivion will be a signal from Ethereum itself. If Ethereum could not match the performance of Bitcoin’s bull market then one must ask, how fair Ethereum in a Bitcoin bear market that begins in a little over 40 days? 40 days until Bear market? 40 days remain of this bull market. That’s it. 40 days and 40 nights as influencers gaslight their audiences with prophecy of $10k and beyond come quarter 4, October through December. However the chart tells us the outlook is very different. The Halving cycle and market top can be measured with pinpoint precision since the inception of Bitcoin itself. To ignore those facts is emotional. Notice each following cycle the market is weaker than the previous. The entire crypto space is preparing to enter a period of complete collapse and irrelevance. A collapse that will be felt most painfully with Ethereum as so many have been led to believe it is the next thing. Influencers talk of institutional acquisition leading investors allocate pension exposure. What a nightmare the other side will be. $6.6k Maybe $7k, and then the death of Ethereum The entire history of Ethereum price action is shown on the above 2 week chart. This is a log growth curve chart. As the name suggests, it is a chart that tells you if an asset is in growth or decline. Ethereum has been in growth for 10 years exactly. Look left, red arrows. That growth has enjoyed support (blue arrows) until a price action breakout on February 2025. The breakout now seeks to confirm resistance, which is around $6.6k to $7k. We can even see a bearish rising wedge pattern form as price action approaches the legacy support. It is note worthy to see the apex of the rising wedge matches with the expected Bitcoin cycle top. Dazzled? You should be, this is many hours of study. Conclusion - What does all mean for the crypto market in the years ahead? This is best kept for another post. Essentially the Crypto currency asset class is a “Growth sector”, which is a description of assets people chase because they believe they’ll grow in the future. It has nothing to do with ability to generate income on merit or to provide a useful function in society. After 10 years of following this space, there’s not been no meaningful value proposition offered. Just clever marketing and eye candy. The Crypto currency asset class is about to have its Dot.com moment. Ww

** The next 18 months ** For the last couple of years Without Worries has been quite the bear on gold price action since $2200-2500 per ounce area. Now price action is up an additional 50%. Even today In some parts of the world $2500 remains more than twice the cost miners pay for recovery, which is Incredible. Price action now flirts with 3400-3500 as Gold bugs call for higher prices. Animal spirts are in full control. Indeed influencer and enthusiasts talk of forecasts to $7k, $10k as they seek an apology, “Do you admit you were wrong?”, that sort of thing, so strong is the conviction. Looking left, the last 1 to 2 years, absolutely. The market appetite was completely unforeseen by myself. From my perspective a 25 year bull run from $250 an ounce has played out. A bull run that has delivered an astonishing 1300% return, which is many multiples of the increased dollar supply (M2) even if you factor in the rate of inflation. Has my opinion changed? Is it true this time is different, is Gold now actually front running the inevitable devaluation of fiat currencies? Absolutely not. Price action is in an epic bubble not seen since 1980. Most of you reading this weren’t even born then. As incredible as the rush from $2k to $3.5k was (still underperforming Bitcoin by some margin); the last couple of years has protected purchasing power during persistent periods of inflation. The time to make good on that projection has arrived, but many gold investors might ignore that opportunity. Gold as an insurance product is only as good as the day you collect it. Why so bearish? There’s fundamental and technical outlooks. The fundamental reasons A bubble of this magnitude has not been seen since the 1980’s decoupling of the Gold standard. Not withstanding uncertainty and panic, today’s bubble is driven by a combination of factors such as conflict, run away state debt, unstable government, uncertain tariff policy. The combination has been the perfect storm for Gold to thrive. The 1980’s bubble was followed by a 70% correction after a massive 700% rally. Now we have a 1300% 25 year rally from the lows of 2000, and somehow I’m told this is the new normal. Typically I’m not one for fundamentals, regardless, the period of history we’re entering is not all that dissimilar from the 1980s through to 1984, many comparisons exist so lets got through them year by year. During each of those years the gold price declined, in particular 81 and 82 What happened between 1980 and 84 to cause such a drawdown? As we go through the reasons, think about the expectations for 2026 through until 2028, think about what those years may bring considering the world we’re in today and as it was between 1980 to 84. The period from 1980 to 1984 was marked by significant global events. In particular a severe worldwide economic recession and a heightened period of the Cold War. Republican president Ronald Reagan adopted a more aggressive stance against the Soviet Union. In the end the Soviet Union collapsed, although not the same, war driven Russia today is faced with economic challenges that will require a generation of recovery. The most significant event of this period was the global recession that began in 81, widely regarded as the most severe since the 1940s. Gold dropped 35% in 1981 alone. A primary cause of the recession was the tightening of monetary policies by major developed nations, particularly the United States under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. This was a deliberate effort to combat high inflation rates that had plagued the economy in previous years (similar to the current situation). Interest rates were significantly increased, reaching nearly 20%. On Inflationary pressures… The effects of tariffs are unlikely to be fully realised until late 2026. But the rate of inflation is now falling, right? That’s the talk. However tariff effects will very likely cause strong inflationary pressures, which are just beginning to be felt. This couldn’t come at a worst possible time as the US reports false and falling employment numbers. A combination of rising unemployment with unseen rates of inflation since the 1980s would indeed be an experience not observed for over two generations. Technological achievements 1982 saw great technologic advancement with the IBM personal computer release marking a significant step in the personal computing revolution. It did not trigger a sudden catastrophic wave of job losses in the way one might imagine. Instead, the arrival accelerated a fundamental restructuring of the job market not unlike what is now seen with the onset of AI tools. I do emphasise ‘tools’, a human component shall always be required. An expert in his or her field. The point would be the disruption to the market new technology brings, which shall inevitability begin with increasing rates of unemployment. Gold had corrected over 60% by this point. In summary, the early 1980s was a period of significant economic restructuring aimed at taming inflation, which came at the cost of a severe recession and high unemployment. The geopolitical landscape remained tense and dynamic. When confidence in the market returns, regardless if it is good or bad, Gold falters on market confidence. The technical Price action printed a new 6 month candle with the close of July. Whether you believe in technical analysis or not, three are now several facts that require attention. They include: A candle count. The age of an Impulsive move is one of the most simplest measurement tools of any chart to help understand if buyer or seller appetite is dwindling. As you study impulsive moves from 6, 7 and 8 month charts that have printed since 1975 you realise each move is limited to a set number of green candles. The greatest being 8 x seven green monthly candle prints. The current print has 7 x seven month candle prints. The Bollinger Band For the first time in 45 years price action has printed a candle body well outside the Bollinger Band, 2 standard deviations (red circles) from the Mean. That is extraordinary. There is now a 95% probability price action shall pivot and begin a trend towards the mean, currently priced at $1800. Relative Strength Index (RSI) To see RSI at 94 on a six month chart in combination with matching Candle Count and Bollinger Band condition is a strong indication of what should be expected to follow. Notice the RSI support is now confirmed as resistance. In summary, there are both fundamentals and technical reasons to now expect a macro shift in price action due to shifts in the global economy that began many months ago. Is it possible price action continue with higher prints? Absolutely. Is it probable? No. Ww

On the above 10 day chart price action is shown with a 40% correction since December last year. A number of reasons now exist for a bullish outlook, including: Support and resistance Price action confirms support on past 3 year resistance around 60 cents Trend reversal The support confirmation is followed by higher low and higher high prints. The Bull flag A measured move from the first impulsive wave will see price action move to the previous all time high of circa $2.50 Summary The flag set up is fairly reliable with a high success rate for continuation with 60% probability. However avoid greed at the forecast area, many people entered the market at $2.50 in 2021. This was the worst possible moment and have been waiting for this opportunity to exit. Do not be their exit liquidity! Is it possible price action continues lower? Sure. Is it probable? No. WwActive on publication

The above forecast is predicted to strike before October 2025. Ethereum will never reach $10k in its lifetime, which a study for another post. A 75% correction is shown on the above 6 day chart that began in March 2024. A number of compelling reasons now exist for a strong upward move. Support and resistance Look left, price action confirms support on past resistance, which follows a strong positive divergence. The resistance has held since May 2022. Incidentally on the topic of divergences, on the same time frame with the same settings, Ethereum prints a double negative divergence over the same period. (see below). The trend Both Price action and RSI resistances have broken out. RSI confirms a trend reversal on past resistance. A Cup and Handle pattern confirmation The forecast is derived from the Cup and Handle pattern topping out at around $10.5k, however it is not suggested to wait until this area before profits are taken. Is it possible price action continues to print lower lows? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Ethereum 6 day double negative divergenciesActive on publication.Will cancel this one for the moment. On the main chart price action is a long above 2100, except we're now closing the weekly under that level. Support and resistance 101, past resistance must act as support before continuation. The chart now violates that rule. Can re-visit the chart should it change.

"Trump token, it's gonna be huge, believe me. We're talking about a tremendous move, a total win, unlike anything you've ever seen. The fake news, they won't tell you but this token it's exploding. It's happening folks everyone knows it, everyone is talking about it." Alright, enough of that... On the above 1 day chart price action has corrected 45% since the month of April. The chart now displays a compelling technical setup for a 100% move to $18. Bullish Arguments: Support and resistance Price action and Relative Strength Index (RSI) breakout from downtrend resistance. Price action also confirms support on past resistance (red / blue arrows). The trend A higher low print is confirmed with the downtrend resistance breakout. The RSI also mirrors this trend reversal with a higher low print. Divergence Look left. Five oscillators now print positive divergence with price action. Conclusions The downtrend clearly now shows signs of reversal. The next two resistance levels are shown, beyond that is unknown until the upper resistance confirms support. Not expected to occur in this market cycle. Is it possible price action continues to print lower highs? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww

** The months ahead ** On the above 8 day chart price action has corrected 99% since 2021. The chart now displays a compelling technical setup that suggests a strong bullish continuation could be on the horizon. Bullish Arguments: Price action forms a clear bull flag pattern A classic continuation pattern typically appears after a strong upward movement (the "flag pole" or impulsive wave) and is followed by a period of downward consolidation (the "flag"). Albeit the formation rarely prints over such a long period of time for a crypto. The downtrend resistance is now broken with a support confirmation suggesting price action is preparing for another leg up, resuming its prior bullish momentum from 2020. Strong support confirmation on past resistance Look left. Historical price zone has proven its significance in the past, acting as both a ceiling and a floor for price movements. The current bounce off past resistance, marked by a higher low, indicates buyers are stepping in at this area. The volume entering the market, collecting emotional seller capitulations, is notable. Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms resistance breakout The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reinforces the bullish outlook. Notice prior to the resistance breakout the index would now print a higher low from the same support area as in 2020. Money Flow Index (MFI) resistance breakout The Money Flow Index (MFI) in the lower panel provides excellent confirmation of the bullish sentiment, follow the money! The new money shows a clear pattern of resistance breakout, mirroring previous instances (marked as 1 and 2) where similar money flow preceded to see strong upward moves in price action. This indicates that money is flowing back into the token, for whatever reason I do not know. Considering the clear bull flag formation, the strong bounce off a critical support/resistance zone, and the confirming signals from RSI and MFI indexes (or indices?!) NKN appears poised for a significant upward continuation. Is it possible price action continues to print lower lows? Sure. Is it probable? No. WwNow we wait... wait until until recently liquidated retail traders return with fresh exit liquidity on next month's pay day.

Every other week Without Worries is asked for his thoughts on Internet Computer project. It is very clear a number of folks are invested and for a few it is the only crypto token they hold. Disclaimer . Without Worries does not hold or trade this crypto token. My opinion is impartial. Two questions every trader or investor must ask themselves before exposure to any asset: What is the trend? Support or resistance, which is it? To not answer either or even ignore the answers; that is to ignore the facts of the chart. You’re here to make money, nothing else. The questions are best answered on a higher time frame where possible, especially a time frame where market pivots align with the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Question 1, what is the trend? Start by looking left, on both Price action and RSI. The first lower high is observed in tandem with a lower high in RSI. This trend is matched in RSI as lower lows in price action and RSI break legacy support. This is clearly a downtrend. Question 2, Support or resistance, which is it? As before, look left. Typically best to start with higher timeframes. Support levels are identified by observing historical price charts where the asset has repeatedly stopped falling and reversed upwards. Similarly, resistance levels are identified by observing historical price action where the asset has repeatedly stopped rising and reversed downwards. These levels are often marked by previous swing highs, areas where the price has consolidated, or psychological round numbers (blue and red arrows). It is fairly clear price action on the above chart now finds resistance on past support. Bonus observation With questions 1 and 2 both answered, it is clear future price action favours a bearish outlook on the macro outlook. A long term bear flag has established, now awaiting confirmation. That confirmation shall be a print of rejection from the underside of the flag, which will also be an additional lower high around $10. It is entirely possible (and is often the situation for flags to print their forecasts without confirmation!). After the confirmation price action will begin its decent towards 60 cents. ww

** The months ahead ** Examination of the 3-week chart for SOLANA reveals several compelling technical signals that suggest a potential bearish trend reversal. This analysis highlights crucial patterns traders and investors of Solana should consider. 1. Formation of a 3-Week Death Cross: A notable bearish signal prints on the chart: a ‘3-week death cross’. This follows a ‘2-week death cross’ that preceded a significant downward movement, just as in early 2022. The death cross, where a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term one, is a strong indicator of a shift towards a bearish trend, especially on higher timeframes like this 3-week chart. 2. Broken Market Structure: The chart clearly indicates a “broken market structure.” This typically occurs when the price fails to create higher highs and higher lows during an uptrend, or in this case, breaks below a significant support level that had previously held. It is absolutely possible price action backtests past support for a resistance confirmation, however on looking left, such a test never occurred on the last death cross. 3. Resistance from Previous Peaks (Head and Shoulders Pattern): Price action leading up to the recent highs resembles a potential ‘Head and Shoulders’ pattern. The three distinct peaks, with the middle peak being the highest, suggest a classic reversal pattern. A subsequent break below the ‘neckline’ (implied support level below the peaks) would confirm the bearish outlook. 4. RSI Oscillator (bottom of chart) resistance The lower panel of the chart displays an RSI oscillator indicator, which shows a clear pattern of "resistance." following a period of support since 2023. The RSI has clearly confirmed resistance from almost 3 years of support. 5. Solana vs Bitcoin All the bearish observations made on the SOL-USD trading pair can be observed on the same 3 week time frame for the SOLANA - BITCOIN trading pair: 6. Potential for Significant Downside Target: Based on the measured move from the previous death cross and breakdown and Fibonacci extension, the chart illustrates a potential downside target of approximately -70% from current levels toward the $30-40 area. While this is a projected target and not guaranteed, the historical precedent following similar bearish signals provides a context for the potential severity of the downturn if the bearish momentum continues. Conclusion: Considering the confluence of a 3-week death cross, broken market structure, resistance from previous peaks (suggesting a potential Head and Shoulders pattern), and the confirmation of RSI resistance, the outlook for SOLANA on the 3-week timeframe appears distinctly bearish. Is it possible price action continues upwards after a 3200% rally? Sure. Is it probable? No WwPrice action has returned to broken market structure. A volume sized move through and above 240 is needed to reclaim structure, otherwise its "trade active".Price action rejects past 200 support, must be regained in the following days.We now have a strong confirmation of resistance on past support following the bearish cross after a 3500% melt up in this cycle. Return in 2028 for the next bull market. 18 day chart

Pattern Overview A textbook bull flag formation has materialised and appears to be have confirmed support on past resistance. The pattern shows the classic characteristics of a strong impulse move followed by a controlled consolidation phase.Key Technical ElementsFlag Formation Structure:Initial strong bullish impulse creating the "flagpole"Orderly consolidation within a defined channel (the "flag")Decreasing volume during consolidation phaseRecent breakout above flag resistance with volume confirmationMoving Average Support:Price action has found support at both the 50-day (blue line) and 200-day (red line) moving averages.Recent price action bouncing cleanly off these dynamic support levelsRSI Confirmation:RSI showing healthy momentum without being overboughtThe oscillator pattern mirrors the flag consolidation, suggesting controlled profit-taking rather than distributionTechnical OutlookBull flags are typically measured by adding the height of the flagpole to the breakout point. . The next impulsive wave forecasts price action to $1Risk ManagementWhile the technical setup appears strong, proper risk management remains essential. A break back into the flag structure, especially below the moving average support zone, would warrant reassessment of the bullish thesis.Ww___________________________________________________________________________________This analysis is for educational purposes and represents technical observations based on price action and indicators shown on the 2-day timeframe.