without_worries

The above chart been brought to my attention by a number of folks asking for an opinion. So here it is.. remember, am just a messenger not target practice. Price action shown on the above weekly chart has closed under the 50 week SMA, or so I’m told. “Is that it? The top now in Ww?” Look left, if you’re using two moving averages: 50 week SMA (blue) 200 week SMA Then for you, the top is in. It’s over, go home. Congratulate yourself once again for providing exit liquidity for those that entered long positions at $15k. They have your everlasting thanks. What's the hullabaloo? Throughout the history of Bitcoin a test of the 200 weekly SMA occurred every time price action closed under the 50 week SMA. That’s not up for debate, it is a chart fact. Today that would be a highly predictable test of $56k, which is also the Fibonacci 0.38. This forecast is going to upset a lot of people. The influencers promised them tales for fortune and glory. Instead.. they got a lesson in basic economics, but they had to pay $50,000 for it. You don't get refunds for stupidity, do ya? Is this time different? It is not possible to tell right now. Many might look at the chart and quit, they’ve had enough. That would be a mistake. Why? Confirmation. Look left. Always look left. Until Monday 24th, November it is not known if the break of the 50 week is confirmed. Indeed if you take a closer look, price action has not actually closed a weekly candle body under the 50 week SMA, it has closed through it. That’s important. Today January 2022 Confirmation June 2018 Confirmation August 2014 Confirmation Conclusions So here we are again, Bitcoin teetering on the edge, influencers chanting “bull market!” like it’s a religion, and yet… there’s that nasty little blue line. Price action under the 50-week SMA has never ended well. Not once. Every single time, without exception, it’s been followed by a cozy trip down to the 200-week SMA. Historically, that’s what Bitcoin does, it falls until it hits something red and expensive looking, then everyone acts surprised. And where’s that level today? About $56k. Right on the Fibonacci 0.38. It’s like gravity with maths. But before you light the torches and start the “Ww’s turned bearish” posts, calm down. The candle hasn’t confirmed yet. That’s right, you’ve got until Monday, November 24th to find out if this is the real deal or just another fake-out designed to make you question every life decision since buying at $110k. Look left. Every time price closed through the 50-week, the same story played out: August 2014: crash. June 2018: crash. January 2022: crash.
It’s basically Bitcoin’s version of Groundhog Day, but without Bill Murray or the happy ending. If it confirms below that line, that’s it. The 200-week SMA becomes the magnet.
If not, we’ll bounce, the influencers will return, and everyone will convince themselves they knew all along. Either way, I’m not saying “doom.” I’m just saying, maths, it works. Ww Disclaimer =============================================================== This isn’t financial advice. Obviously. If you’re taking investment cues from a bloke with a sense of humour about market collapses, you might want to re-evaluate your decision making process. If you sell here and it pumps that’s on you.
If you hold and it dumps, that's also on you.
If you blame “market manipulation,” congratulations, you’ve just described every loser in crypto since 2017. I don’t have a crystal ball, just charts and they don’t lie, even if people do. So whether Bitcoin crashes to $56k, or rallies to $160k, or starts taking payments in “Hopium,” I’ll still be here, tea in hand, smirking, watching the comments fill up with “You were wrong!” from people who were never right. Without Worries (Ww)
“Look left, not up.”The S&P 500 currently at 6630, the same price it was in mid-September. Not a crash. At that time Bitcoin was at $118k -$40k, yes.. that's a crash. Stock market = 1 Crypto speculation = 0Down $40k from $126k, only $30k to go as Micheal Saylor reveals "Microstrategy admits a bitcoin sale is possible" finance.yahoo.com/news/microstrategy-admits-bitcoin-sale-possible-180141373.html The house of cards slowly begins to collapse.

Ah, MicroStrategy…. the stock that’s half software company, half Bitcoin cult. Every time you think it’s about to behave like a normal tech firm, Michael Saylor pops up with a grin, another billion dollars of debt, and the conviction of a man who’s never heard the words “margin call.” And here we are, November 2025, staring at the Red Channel Crossover. Sounds ominous doesn’t it? Like something NASA would warn about before the Sun goes super nova. Déjà Vu: February 2022 Says Hello Look left. 
The last time price action crossed into the red channel was February 2022. Market structure broke. Price dumped. Holders prayed. And then just when everyone thought it was over, sneaky sellers rotated the gravity dial to 2G. Now we’re back at it. November 2025, same crossover, same setup, same “this time is different” nonsense. Every influencer on X is already typing “Buy the dip 🚀”, as if adding a rocket emoji somehow fixes negative momentum. The technicals The green channel represents calm waters, an uptrend, happy times, and Saylor buying jets with the profits. The red channel is the opposite. It’s like when the hangover kicks in and you realise that was not sugar free Red Bull. Each time MSTR entered this red zone, it meant one thing: Broken market structure, 50–70% correction, Mass denial phase. Right now, the chart’s showing that same red crossover again, after breaking below structural support around the $240 area. If you’re still shouting “to the moon” at this point… well that rocket exploded months ago. RSI & sentiment RSI is rolling over faster than a drunk at a wedding. Momentum’s drained and what’s left are bag holders explaining to their spouses that “it’s a long-term store of value.” It’s not. It’s a tech stock with a crypto addiction. So what happens next? If history’s anything to go by, and it usually is, price action is heading for the same fate it suffered post February 2022: First, a short-lived bounce to sucker in the hopeful. Then, the slow, grinding descent into despair. A retrace toward the $80–$100 region would fit perfectly with prior cycle behaviour. And if Bitcoin confirms its own Gaussian bear trend, well… let’s just say Michael Saylor’s going to need more than “diamond hands”, he’ll need a therapist. Before that can happen expect price action to test the $300 area to confirm broken market structure. Today price action is considerably oversold, this idea only becomes validated after a resistance confirmation on past support . Wrote that in bold for those of you who struggle to get past the headline. I blame Tik-Tok Conclusions Every cycle it’s the same story: 1. MSTR breaks structure. 2. The red channel appears. 3. Everyone panics. 4. Then comes the silence. The only variable is how many motivational tweets Saylor can post before margin calls start rolling in. This setup isn’t new, isn’t rare, and isn’t bullish, it’s just math doing its job while people pretend it’s spiritual warfare. So yes, the red channel crossover is back. Same movie. Different year. Still ends badly for the extras. Ww Disclaimer ================================================================== This isn’t financial advice, obviously. If you need a stranger on the internet to tell you not to buy a company using borrowed money to gamble on Bitcoin, you deserve the portfolio you get. If it pumps, you’ll take credit.
If it dumps, you’ll blame the FED.
Either way, I’ll be here limiting my desire to say "I told you so".

A Death Cross. Sounds terrifying, doesn’t it? Like something out of a low-budget horror film. Here in deepest darkest Bavaria you can’t drive ten minutes without seeing Christ nailed to a cross at every T-junction, it’s practically the local logo. Cross the Austrian border and the numbers multiply like leverage traders in a bull run. Lovely. But this? This is the real death cross. Or at least, that’s what the market thinks. Déjà vu… for the third time This is the third time I’ve written this post. And yes, it’s always at max fear. Every cycle the same: people panic, memes fly, and somewhere someone says, “It’s different this time.” Spoiler: it’s not. If you’re feeling nostalgic, click the little triangles where the purple arrows point on the chart. you’ll see the previous posts. The critics lined up back then too, bless ’em. Loud voices, small wallets, and Mum's voice in the background "Dinner's ready!". April 7th, 2025 Death cross August 18th, 2024 Death cross The November 17th Death Cross On the 1-day chart above, the signal is forecast to print by November 17th. That’s when the 50-day SMA (blue) crosses below the 200-day SMA (red) and price action sits under the 200-day line. It’s the technical version of your mother saying, “I’m not angry, just disappointed.” This forecast uses the Trigg & Leach method, the same one applied to prior crosses and it’s nailed every one since the bull market began. Closer Zooming out.. Time to market top: circa 59 days Here’s the clever bit, or as I call it, the boring maths no one reads. Historically after each Death Cross Bitcoin rallied before topping out. The time between the cross and the pivot has been shrinking: 1st Cycle → 179 days 2nd Cycle → 131 days 3rd Cycle → 99 days Apply some arithmetic progression, that’s a fancy way of saying “find the difference and pretend it means something.” Difference 1 131 − 179 = −48 Difference 2: 99 − 131 = −32 Average difference = −40 Therefore 99 − 40 = 59 days. That puts the potential cycle top mid-January 2026, and wouldn’t you know it, mid-January sell-offs are a Bitcoin tradition older than bad YouTube thumbnails. Conclusions So yes, a Death Cross is coming. Cue the headlines, the drama, and the bloke on X explaining Fibonacci levels like they’re sacred scripture. Look left. Every time this happened, it played out the same way: panic, bounce, despair, recovery. Rinse, repeat. The maths points to mid-January 2026 for the next swing high, and then gravity takes over. If it all goes to plan, brilliant. If not, add this one to your growing folder titled “Why I don’t listen to anyone on TradingView.” Ww Disclaimer ============================================================== This isn’t financial advice. I’m not your fund manager, your priest, or your mum. If you go all-in on Bitcoin because two squiggly lines made a cross, that’s your fault, not mine. If it pumps, you’ll say you “always knew.”
If it dumps, you’ll tweet “market manipulation.”
Either way, I’ll still be here, drinking tea and laughing at the comment section. So yes it’s a Death Cross. But relax. It’s just a chart, not the Book of Revelation. AhmenThe idea is now active. Price action could still sell off down to $90k with ease, even lower on the typical Monday sell off. But that's just an opportunity, when there's blood on the streets, take advantage. Don't forget, this is a daily chart, the upside period is limited to 59 days with the market top not being more than double this pivot low. So if we see $80k, then $160k is the top. $90k pivot low, then $180k is the top, understand? 59 days or double price, whichever comes first. Fully exit the crypto market at that time, the bear market will be extensive. Daily chart The bearish charts on Bitcoin that are published remain valid, nothing has changed. Remember most are on weekly or 3 week time frames. The above daily chart and progress over the next 59 days barely shows over 3x three weekly candles. Ww

And the Bulls have until November 17th to undo that, or else… An alarm recently triggered, an alarm that had been completely forgotten about. That alarm has a message written to myself: “Bitcoin price action enters weekly Gaussian channel. Look left - DO NOT IGNORE” We look left, and pause, “ well isn’t that interesting ”, says the little voice of reason. I tell it to shut up as I convince myself this time is different. The technicals: Each candle circled from 2014 through until 2021 is the first candle to enter the weekly Gaussian channel following the market top. Now whether you believe the market top is in or not, that is not relevant. We’re only interested in facts. The facts are: Price action corrected -60% minimum upon entering the channel AFTER confirmation. Price action has until November 17th to confirm. That would result in a market bottom of $43k to $57k, Saylor’s fund would be wiped out. Price action would remain in a bear market condition for at least 18 months. Therefore no recovery until mid 2027. Closer Clarice What needs to happen to remain in a bull market? Price action must close above $110k, while technically speaking $105k is outside the channel, that would be a weak close. A weak close as the previous bar engulfs the print. Conclusions So here we are again, Bitcoin’s entered the weekly Gaussian channel, that green noodle of doom. Every time it happens, people scream “buy the dip!” as if chanting it makes the red candles go away. Look left, seriously, just look. Every single time price action’s wandered into that channel since 2014, it’s been the start of an 18-month spa retreat for the bears. “This time is different,” they say. In each cycle Bitcoin entered the Gaussian channel price dropped roughly -60 % and stayed miserable for over a year. And 2025 has been glorious right?, all Bitcoin maxis ever wanted was a fiat replacement. Congratulations, price action is the same as it was this time last year and look set to continue the trend! Why the long faces?! Isn't this what you wanted? Was never about more dollars was it? 1 Bitcoin still = 1 Bitcoin after all. Now the bulls have got until November 17th to prove this isn’t another replay. If the bulls can’t push price back above $110 k (and hold it), it’s curtains. $43k – $57k becomes the new meditation zone while Saylor and the laser-eye crew quietly delete their tweets. Ww Disclaimer ============================================================= This isn’t financial advice. It’s a bloke on the internet pointing at a rainbow-coloured curve saying “that’s bad.” If you mortgage your house because you think I’ve uncovered the secret code of the Gaussian gods, that’s on you. If it pumps, you’ll call yourself a genius. If it dumps, you’ll say the whales manipulated it. Either way, I’ll still be here, laughing at the comments section. So yes, DO NOT IGNORE the channel. But also, don’t sell your kidneys because a stranger on TradingView drew some squiggly lines.

Here we go again. Dogecoin, the only “currency” that started as a joke, became a religion, and now looks like it’s back on life support. Every time the blue line (that’s the 50 SMA on shown 12-day chart above) touches price, the crowd shouts, “It’s breaking out!” Then gravity reminds everyone how charts and physics actually work. Look left As price action closed a 10 or 12 day candle on or below the blue line, that is the 50SMA, price rises to the moon or falls off a cliff. It’s like déjà vu but more expensive. The technicals (A.K.A. reality check) 1. The support channel: Price has been obediently bouncing inside that nice little rising channel since 2022. When you see price action following the channel rather than reacting to it, that’s a warning. That's a warning of impending weakness. Now price has fallen like a drunk through a coffee table. 2. The RSI: Hovering in the mid-40s, which basically means it’s deciding whether to bother trying or just give up quietly. If it creeps down to 42, abandon ship! 3. The Stochastic RSI: You can see it curling down again. That red circle? That’s the technical equivalent of a yawn before a nap, usually followed by a drop. Once you’re below 20, you’re staying there for a period. See that 78% correction from 2021? Yeah, we’ve just printed the same setup again (points 1 through 3). The only thing missing is a Twitter meme from a ketamine fuelled billionaire. The Forecast Best case: A dead cat bounce back to the bottom of the channel (~$0.17). Congrats, you’ve broken even on the way to losing more. Base case: Another 70–80% correction, just like last time. History doesn’t repeat, but Dogecoin traders sure do. Price action would test 4-5 cents in this instance. Worst case: Elon tweets something, it pumps 40% in an hour, and you buy the top again. Conclusions Dogecoin still does what it’s always done, remind us that markets are powered more by emotion than logic. It was fun while it lasted, but the joke’s over. The punchline is your portfolio. If history is any guide, the next few months will be spent pretending this is “accumulation.” It isn’t. It’s denial with extra steps. Could it moon again? Sure. So could my toaster if Elon tweets about it. Ww Disclaimer =============================================================== This isn’t financial advice. It’s a bloke on the internet pointing at a picture of a dog and some candles. If you buy Dogecoin because of this, don’t DM me crying when it tanks, call your therapist. If it pumps, you’ll call yourself a genius. If it dumps, you’ll call it market manipulation. Either way, it’ll be hilarious.

A 2 day death cross prints on the above 2 day chart of SUI. That is when the 2-day 50 SMA crosses down the 2-day 200 SMA (red). Sounds bearish doesn’t it? The truth, when looking left, was far different. Price action climbed an astonishing 900% on the 2 day death cross print. Is history repeating? Maybe. There’s two questions that first must be positively answered before a repeat of history: 1. The trend, is higher highs higher lows printing? 2. Support and resistance, which is it? Both questions are negatively answered at this moment. A long position is irrational until that changes. Moving averages do not predict the future Too easily traders see moving averages as a forecast of things to come. It feels dumb for saying this: " A moving average is the average value for a set of values over a given period of time ". You’d be surprised how many people do not realise that. Moving averages are telling you something of the past and nothing about the future. Only questions 1 and 2 can do that. What can be expected? It is clear an upward move in price action can be expected on the death cross print. At least until market structure. This would be a 50% gain from price action today. After that, questions 1 and 2 must become positive, just as before in late 2024. Conclusions The so-called death cross, a term that sounds far more apocalyptic than it deserves, has once again provoked hysteria in the usual corners of the market. Every time two moving averages intersect, a small army of self-anointed prophets appear, clutching at trend lines as though they were holy scripture. But, as ever, the data mocks the drama. The last time this same formation appeared, SUI didn’t die, it rose ninefold. That’s not a harbinger of doom; it’s a reminder that the market, unlike superstition, doesn’t care for human expectations. Until higher highs and higher lows reassert themselves, until resistance becomes support, the idea of a renewed uptrend remains aspirational rather than empirical. To treat a moving average as predictive is to confuse the rearview mirror for the road ahead. It tells us what has been, not what will be. Yet traders persist in treating it as gospel, and then curse the market for their misplaced faith when the price does not comply. A short term rally is likely to occur, as it often does when hysteria meets technical imbalance. But without confirmation of structure, such rallies are little more than reprieves, merciful pauses in an otherwise indifferent process of price discovery. Ww Disclaimer ======================================================= This isn’t financial advice. If you’re making trades because a bloke on the internet wrote “death cross” in bold letters, you deserve every emotional rollercoaster that follows. I don’t care if you’re bullish, bearish, or just bored, or if you lose money, that’s not a “market manipulation conspiracy,” that’s just you being wrong. Do your own research, manage your own risk, and please, for everyone’s sake, stop treating moving averages like they’re tarot cards.

Is XRP about to collapse faster than a vegan at a BBQ? The idea “ XRP heading for 70% correction to 60 cents? ” was published at circa $2.90 after price action rallied almost 1000% throughout 2024. Price action continued to climb until $3.30 in the weeks ahead. Naturally many took umbrage to any publisher who dared to suggest investors might do something as awful as, you know, sell after huge profits. Because making money is not the game, on no. Pledging your allegiance and unshakable faith is the true path to financial freedom. And if you believe that, I’ll tell you another... Trump and & Co. are taking up philanthropy. The piffle from the congregation continues to entertain “Swift will be replaced by Ripple”, “Blackrock are going in big,”, “Why don’t you learn to read charts?”, every market top is the same. Liquid Euphoria. The technical A noteworthy development prints on the above weekly chart. A development that was fatal to any long investor who continued to ignore previous cycles. Once price action closed a candle body under the 50 week Simple Moving Average, the market dropped like a stone. After the bearish divergence print in July (same strength as the bullish divergence print in March of 2020 at 14 cents) price action went on to break market structure. Bulls were unfazed by this development it would seem, but now a more serious development, the 50 week SMA breakdown. Support and resistance is currently around 70 cents. Support never confirmed following the breakout. Previous collapses in price action align nicely with a 70% correction that would take price action back to the breakout should that correction strength repeat. Conclusions XRP has done it again, fooled the faithful into thinking this time it’s different. “Institutional money’s coming,” “the banks are loading up,” “Swift is finished!” Yeah, sure. And I’m the next Pope. Look, I get it, every cycle needs its pantomime hero. However this isn’t a revolution; it’s déjà vu in high definition. The chart above doesn’t lie, the same structure, the same signals, and now the same 50-week breakdown that’s historically ended in tears. It’s not witchcraft, it’s statistics: Close below the 50-week SMA? → -60% to -80% every single time. RSI? Rolling over like a fainting goat. Support? Never confirmed. It’s all right there, hiding in plain sight while influencers keep shouting “bullish!” from their YouTube mansions. Could it bounce? Sure. Dead cats do that too. But when every lower high is accompanied by louder noise and weaker conviction, you’ve got yourself less of an “investment” and more of a live action psychology experiment. So, is XRP on death’s door? Let’s just say it’s knocking politely and the door’s already open. Ww Disclaimer This isn’t financial advice. Obviously. If you’re basing your investment strategy on what some bloke on the internet with access to a TradingView account says, you deserve whatever cinematic tragedy comes next. I don’t work for Ripple, I don’t hate Ripple, and I definitely don’t think Ripple’s going to replace Swift, unless Swift suddenly stops working and forgets how to money. So, do your own research, manage your own risk, and for the love of all things holy, stop confusing hopium with a business model. If XRP moons, great, tell me all about it while I pretend to care. If it crashes 80%, well… don’t say the moving averages didn’t warn you.

An opening statement: The idea is not restricted to Ethereum Classic (ETC), many legacy tokens are showing the same sequence of events as highlighted in the chart above. The recent update to the OTHERS total idea identifies a few. Story so far The Crypto gambling mania of older tokens continues to entice many. Market participants were told financial armageddon is around the corner, prepare now. A corner that turned out to be a roundabout, an endless road to nowhere with changing views. “ETF is coming Ww!” “Trump will approve new Crypto fund blah blah”, the inbox is filled with such messaging. The project fundamentals are now irrelevant, it seems, as folks hope and pray for a greater fool to come along and release them from the stress of holding dead weight. But what if the crypto fool supply is drying up? Then what? The technical warning The above 8 chart of Ethereum classic is typical of many legacy tokens. Like stone skipping. That is, you throw this little flat stone across the pond and at first it’s amazing, it’s like, boing! boing! boing! You feel like a physics genius. However what’s actually happening, properly, scientifically, is the stone’s cheating gravity for a bit. It hits the water at just the right angle, makes this tiny lift like a miniature water trampoline. But every time it hits, it loses a bit of energy. Bit of speed, bit of spin, bit of dignity. Eventually it’s like, ‘Nah, I’m done,’ and just plops in. That’s it. It’s run out of the stuff that keeps it skipping. It’s the same as me after two beers trying to dance, starts strong lots of energy, then gravity wins. Straight down. Splash.. Sentiment No shortage of long ideas on the platform. . To be a contrarian is to look the other direction when everyone else says the same thing. Not easy, but imperative. Like many legacy charts, the Bitcoin pairs exhibit broken market structures. ETC.btc chart, broken market structure Conclusions There’s no polite way to say this, Ethereum Classic, like many of its legacy peers is running on fumes. Every bounce looks impressive until you zoom out and realise it’s just another stone skip on the surface of a dying pond. Each lower high is a polite reminder that gravity still works. The chart doesn’t lie: Momentum’s gone. Liquidity’s gone. Belief is on life support. Price continues to cling to the same horizontal band it’s bounced off for half a decade, the so-called “water line where surface tension and angular momentum meet.”* Below it? Silence. You’ll always find someone calling this “undervalued,” or “ready for a comeback.” But let’s be honest, that’s nostalgia speaking. What used to be innovation is now a museum exhibit, a relic from the days when everyone thought “blockchain” was going to save the world. Sure, maybe there’s a pop left in it, one final gasp, a skip before the splash. But when it happens, don’t mistake physics for faith. Eventually, every stone sinks. Ww ============================================================ Disclaimer This isn’t financial advice, obviously. If you’re buying Ethereum Classic because someone on the internet said it might bounce, that’s not investing, that’s performance art. I don’t hold ETC, I don’t want to, and if it suddenly moon-shots I’ll still sleep fine. Do your own research, manage your own risk, and please for your own sanity stop expecting miracles from assets that peaked during the Obama administration. If it goes up, brilliant. If it goes down, well… gravity wins again.You think sellers will stop at $0 ?? Think again ;-)

In just over a week from now (currently October 23rd, 2025), Bitcoin’s 3 week chart may confirm a bearish engulfing candle (blue circles), unless price recovers $115k. If you’re a fan of statistics (as I am), you’ll know what comes next: look left. Every single time a 3 week bearish engulfing candle printed with RSI at 57 or below, the result was the same, collapse. Don’t shoot the messenger; all I’m doing is looking left while influencers are looking up. A confirmed close here would mark the fifth such candle in Bitcoin’s history. Each prior event retraced to the Fibonacci 0.382, placing a downside target near $40,000. Right back into the historical mean reversion zone. Such a drop would almost certainly trigger forced liquidations, particularly for leveraged institutional positions (yes, that means MicroStrategy). Debt and drawdowns make for a dangerous combination when gravity reappears. On the 15 day chart, the situation is already deteriorating, price has exited the rising support channel, exactly as shown in the main 3 week chart above. A strong, high volume reversal from the bulls is required to invalidate this setup. 15 day chart What about the $160k idea? For those following closely, you’ll recall “ The End of Bitcoin Begins in 40 Days @ ~$160k (October 2025) ”, the analysis remains technically valid as long as structure holds. Has market structure failed? That's exactly what this idea aims to determine. If a 3 week candle body closes below the rising support channel, then it's over. There'll be no new all time high in this cycle, $126,000 was the top as forecast back in 2023 . Until then, the market hangs on a knife edge. Any clues which way the market takes next? Indeed there is and it's not from crypto Twitter. The Bond market never lies. Specifically, the 3 month US Treasury yield, which is in free fall. A classic leading indicator of liquidity stress and risk-off sentiment. Every time the bond market collapses while equities remain elevated, technology stocks follow soon after. And Bitcoin, like it or not, trades more like a high beta tech asset than an inflation hedge. Tech versus the 90-day Bond market For those still clinging to the “Bitcoin is an inflation hedge!” narrative, the chart disagrees. If you thought the $19B liquidation event was bad, wait until "Hold my beer" Micheal Saylor reaches the point of forced liquidated on unmanageable levels of debt interest. “ Everything Money Plus ” describes the situation perfectly, have a lookie. Conclusions Well, here we are again. Bitcoin’s about to do what it always does. Everyone’s screaming “supercycle,” influencers are drawing triangles on charts like they’ve cracked the code to the universe, and meanwhile, the candle’s about to slap them all in the face. If this 3 week setup confirms, price is going to $40–45k. Not because of some secret cabal or “market manipulation,” but because… that’s what happens when you buy something that went up 700% and convince yourself it’ll never go down again. Every cycle it’s the same story. They say, “This time it’s different.” But no. It’s exactly the same. Only this time, you’ve got a Discord group cheering you on while you lose your house. So, will Bitcoin crash? Maybe. Will people still tweet laser eyes while it happens? Absolutely. Then they’ll blame the FED, the ETFs, the moon’s gravitational pull anything but themselves. So yeah, maybe it bounces. Maybe it doesn’t. But when the market dumps and the influencers vanish faster than your portfolio, just remember: the chart did warn you. You just didn’t listen. Ww ============================================== Disclaimer Alright, (puts dram down to one side) let’s get this straight, this isn’t financial advice. Obviously. If you’re taking trading tips from strangers on the internet with adorable profile pictures, that’s on you. I don’t work for a hedge fund, I don’t have insider info, and I’m definitely not sitting in a room with ten monitors shouting “buy the dip.” I’m just looking at the same chart as everyone else and going, “Yeah, that looks a bit grim.” So, if you sell your house, remortgage your cat, and go all-in on a candle pattern, don’t come crying when it goes the other way. That’s not a “rug pull.” That’s just bad life choices. Crypto’s volatile. It goes up, it goes down, sometimes both in the same hour. So, do your own research. Manage your own risk. And if you lose money, at least learn something, because that’s the only guaranteed return in this market.

This idea is not active on publication. Are we clear? Great, read on.. The Story Markets have an uncanny ability to fool the largest number of participants at the most critical moments. Bitcoin is once again setting that stage. While the crowd celebrates new highs and “the strongest bull market ever,” the structure is quietly repeating the same pattern that preceded every major cycle top. At the same time influencers across social media continue to gaslight audiences on the promises of “Alt season” in quarter 4, even though the cycle top is ridiculously close the charts are signalling something is not quite right. Do the following charts suggest green months ahead? Each bull market, 2013, 2017, 2021 produced a sequence of consecutive green six-month candles before exhaustion: * 2012 – 2013 → 5 green six-month candles * 2015 – 2017 → 6 candles * 2020 – 2021 → 4 candles * 2023 – 2025 → now at 5 candles Six month candle count in each bull market It’s not the count that matters, it’s the context. Every cycle ends in euphoria, and euphoria is exactly what a 6-month Gravestone DOJI represents: a candle of rejection formed at the height of optimism. On shorter timeframes, that same behaviour repeats. The 1 month and 3 month charts both print hammers, powerful reversal setups when they appear at cycle extremes, not continuation zones. 1 month hammer 3 month hammer 6 month Gravestone DOJI What’s Next The combination of the 1-month hammer, 3-month hammer, and 6-month Gravestone DOJI forms what can only be described as a trap structure, a technical pattern that invites late buyers before liquidity vanishes. Historically, when Bitcoin posts a Gravestone DOJI on the higher timeframe following four to six green candles, it signals a pause or the beginning of distribution. The takeaway is simple: Momentum is slowing Structure is repeating Sentiment is euphoric If the 6-month candle confirms red in early 2026, the trap will have sprung and history will have rhymed again. Conclusions This isn’t the end of Bitcoin, but it may be the end of this particular cycle.
A Gravestone DOJI doesn’t kill a trend on its own, but at the tail of a multi-year rally, it’s the market whispering “take profit while you still can.” They’ve built the perfect trap, the market makers, and the majority are cheering it on. Until confirmation proves otherwise, caution is not bearish, it’s survival. Ww ======================================== Disclaimer This post is for educational purposes only and reflects personal opinion, not financial advice.
I hold no position in Bitcoin and have no vested interest in the outcome of this analysis. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and unpredictable; always conduct your own research, manage your risk carefully, and base decisions on your own strategy and timeframe. Patience and confirmation always outlast emotion.