mukit1

ETH is at a make or break area at the moment. $2870-$2950 is a super major support zone for ETH. If price wants to go down a bit more, then the 0.5 fib level at $2730-$2630 would be another very strong support. The last bit of support would be the golden zone area between $2270 - $2180. Elliott wave perspective, ETH might have come to a spot where no one would complain if it turned around from here. RSI is showing bullish divergence. We can make a case for a full 5 waves for C. If market has other ideas, then this could be a larger wave 3 for a nested 1/2, 1/2. If that is the case, then price might head down to the lower levels mentioned above. But, for now, it does seem like capitulation has taken place, and the sell pressure has peaked. Until price is above at least $4285, it can still be a larger AB with another leg down for C. Ideally, we would want to see another ATH with a complete 5 waves sequence up before we know for sure. My plan is to start nibbling ASAP to add back to my bag with a stop loss. When the sentiment is this bearish, it has always worked out, at least in the short term. If the minor Wave 2 is indeed over, then we should start prepping for massive fireworks. On macro cycle minor wave 3s are the strongest. We'll see how things go, but I am hopeful; until market decides to throw dirt in my eyes!

I have been researching assets that fall into the cross section of AI compute and Crypto. Some more prominent ones like RNDR, FIL etc. are ok, but I was looking for something with 100x potential; something that have been severely depressed. I found Akash Network. Cosmos chain has been terrible for the ecosystem and has done nothing for the true potential of the chain. The fundamentals are pretty solid. They are not in the business of competing against AWS or Azure. But they are perfect for cheap and fast infrastructure to run AI agents and rag tools. They need to find a new home same as RNDR moved into SOL. If they can do this without any major fallout, I think now is the time, the price will start to reflect the potential. Chart technicals are showing strong bullish divergence in RSI. EW structure is looking pretty text book completion or near completion. I started to accumulate at the golden zone. Will accumulate a bit more if price hits $0.4. But, I would expect a solid bounce to come very soon. At the moment, the market is a bit risky, so, I will not go in too deep. Long term, this could be a good alt to hold for a few years.

I haven't looked at GRT for a while. This coin still holds a lot of potential, but not much to show for. Throughout this cycle, the price has only gone down. If the bottom has been reached is anyone's guess, but Eliott Waves technicals are pointing at an end of cycle. The last leg might already be done, or we have wave 1 of 5 of C and price might head lower. If the low is in, or about to be in, we should see a 5 waves structure upward to complete wave 1. If price is about to hit lower, then it should start making new lows for wave 3 right away. Either way, I will be interested to see this run to come to an end. I might start to nibble if price breaks down and touches the mid line of the channel. If price goes up and finishes a 5 wave structure, I will start to nibble on the wave 2 retrace. Bottom line, I would accumulate a little bag in the next couple of months. At the least, I would expect a healthy bounce towards the top of the channel.

SUI bullish price action stalled when it failed to break higher in September, putting an end to a series of 1/2 moves to bed then crashing into the October low. The actual low is debatable, but Binance seems to have gotten hit the hardest, so let's go with that. Now the 5 wave moves in between seem to be parts of a and C waves of various degrees. Depending on how the next price action unfolds, there could be 2 bullish options. 1. Less bullish leading diagonal: In this scenario, we should see 3 wave move up to make new highs for primary wave 3. The lazier the start, the stronger validation for this scenario. Depending on, if the structure is expanding or contracting, the target could be somewhere in between $11 to $70 in the next two years or so. Lazier the action, lower the target. As long as the last wick low holds SUI can chug along. 2. More bullish 1/2, 1/2: In this scenario, the current price action is even a lower degree, maybe a minute degree 1/2 in progress. In this scenario, there is no room for additional downtime. Price needs to move soon and very strongly. Price can correct a bit more, maybe test the $1.5 support, but things cannot drag on for months. Decision time should be in a couple of weeks give or take one week. After that, macro wave 3 or 3 of 3 of 3 should be the strongest and longest leg for SUI. 3. Bear case: If the black Friday wick low is lost, then things will look really nasty. It may take a while for SUI to recover. I still believe in the technological fundamental that drives the hype. In theory it is the perfect fit for AI driven economy and content. Will it translate into real life use cases, we will have to wait and see. I did add to my bag during the crash and still holding. If price falls below $1.5, then will need to reassess the whole situation.

One thing for sure, Uptober has flopped big time! Market recovery is not on the horizon just yet. BTC is more likely to shed some more value in terms of dollars. Major Alts are back above major support, but if those will hold or not, will be found out in the upcoming weeks. The big question is, if the bull market done? If we go by the 4 year halving cycle, then one could make an argument that the bull market is over for the next 18 months. To be completely honest, all major price targets have been hit for this cycle. Not only for BTC, but also for SPX, NDX, Gold, major Alts, etc. So, what is there to complain about? Well, first of all, this crash is totally manmade (AHEM!!!). And second, Crypto industry was just getting its very first legitimate institutional led headwind and it stalled before it could really take off! Frustrating, for sure; unexpected, not really! Now, in terms of how bad it can get, we need to look if support levels can hold. I will have a few stop losses to get me out of this mess if things start to fall apart. First is the 108k level. It almost gave in, but holding on. If that fails, then 89k level. It is very important to hold. If we see daily closes or weekly close below it, then 74k pivot will be tested and most likely fail. If that fails then the 70k-65k cluster and if that is not enough then 50K. Below 50k, I don't think any institution will be comfortable to hold on. So, if that fails, it is really game over! No one knows what will really happen. In past cycles, big draw downs have marked a low, but this time it is a bit different. Previous drops like this have been in the bottom of the cycle and this time it's at the top. So, unless BTC can shrug this off and take advantage of the dollar decline and start to head back up, we need to prepare for the bear market. The bull market is still intact if BTC can bounce off one of the fib levels and start making new highs. If that happens, then we will see the last leg of the extended wave 5 move! We do not want to see price closing below $89k on daily closing basis.

ADA is slowly setting up for a move. Looking for a short term retrace to setup an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Right now, 1 hour RSI has bearish divergence. This dip will reset the momentum and should setup for a big move. There will be several degrees of wave 3 starting at this time, so, I would expect something rather explosive. If it not coming out of the gate blazing, then something would not be right. It would be easier to set a stop loss. Right now, I will deploy a bit more capital on the upcoming dip to make the bag heavier.

Doge is coming up on a resistance, making local higher high as RSI is still a lower high. So far, the structure looks to be a 3 wave move. The 5 waves move seems to be a part of a bigger 3 waves move, making it very difficult to count as an impulse overall. Hense the idea of an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals can form a structure over a very long period and it is almost impossible to identify until it is almost over. So, this idea will be something I will be tracking closely but, still not the primary idea. For now, overall markets are getting frothy, and a correction seems to be imminent. At this moment, having a true breakout to push RSI higher seems to be less probable, but not impossible. So, if price starts to retrace over the next 2-4 weeks, it might be the B wave before the yearend rally to complete C of 3. It could also be a leading diagonal to a wave 1 of 5, but we can talk about that down the road depending on the macro landscape.

BTC price breaking below $112k is a big deal. It made a lower low similar to June, but from EW perspective, it marked the completion of a significant top. It also confirmed that the inverse head and shoulder pattern has failed. Now, there are several pathways opened up where price can either take a nosedive or chop around a bit or go back up with even greater intensity and there is no way of knowing which one, until it happens. 1. Blue path: this could be an extension of minuette degree wave 5. Instead of completing subminuette 5 waves move, maybe it is only the wave 1 of 5. If that is the case, then this correction should be winding down very soon. This move down in price during August looks to be a three waves move, most likely a wxy. It has tapped the golden zone from June low to August high. For blue path to be true, we should see $112k regained early next week and ATH reached before end of September. If this plays out, then we will see the parabola that everyone is waiting for! 2. Green path: this assumes minute degree wave 3 has completed and wave 4 is on going. This would be the most painful scenario, since the chop will be quite brutal and shakeout a lot of people on both sides. specially if price action takes a triangle shape, then it can go on for a while. The move down so far is in 3 waves and the first wave being in another 3 waves, it is most probable that the overall move will not be an impulse. It might turn out to be a diagonal to start wave 1 to the downside, but that will be an alternate count of an alternate count. For now, this scenario will assume a slow ride down to $90-$70k, hopefully support at the trendline in the next 2-3 months. 3. Red path: most bearish. Would assume minute degree wave 5 is complete and has marked the completion of Minor wave 1. Minor wave 2 can travel a lot. To reach the golden zone could take price to $32k. The confirmation would be the trend line break in the $85k region. Depending on how fast the price drops, it may last for the next 6-8 months with steep bounces along the way. Right now, exiting is the most difficult decision to make. I would be extremely careful to put any leverage on either side of the trade. I have taken profit but not going to either exit or put more capital at this moment.

Since my last update on SUI, very little has changed. There has been a series of wave 1 and wave 2. Unless something changes on the macro and SUI price fails to break above $4.43 in the next 2-3 weeks, it should be time to start a series of wave 3s. This melt up should last for 6 months to 1 year and price target should be around $30 to complete intermediate degree wave 3. Overall market is very tricky right now. A lot of news driven and emotional trades are dominating price action. So, if we don't see well defined and very strong upward moves, something different might be going on. For now, holding tightly until price breaks below $2.

SPX is coming up on the support area around 6300. Next week will be the do or die test. If support trendline breaks, then probability of Minor degree B wave goes up by a lot. Right now, the bullish scenario is on the red path. If, SPX gets support on the trendline and bounces to make another ATH along with Daily and Weekly RSI making another lower high, then that would be the local top. More bearish scenario is if the support breaks right now. That will put SPX on the green path; breakdown, retest trendline and then crash. In that case, should expect correction to last till the end of September; maybe till mid October, and then the Halloween rally to finish up the year. Should expect market to get down to 0.618 to 0.5 fib level before the down turn is over. Do not want to see the market get below 5k. For now, the trendline is where the next move will most likely be decided. I do not think the generational crash is here just yet. There are still a lot of investors on the side lines. Crypto market still hasn't seen the blow off top. Underlying economy is still holding steady, even though some cracks are appearing. Depending on how the correction unfolds, either a 3 or a 5 waves move, we will find out the magnitude and the degree.