mukit1

SUI bullish price action stalled when it failed to break higher in September, putting an end to a series of 1/2 moves to bed then crashing into the October low. The actual low is debatable, but Binance seems to have gotten hit the hardest, so let's go with that. Now the 5 wave moves in between seem to be parts of a and C waves of various degrees. Depending on how the next price action unfolds, there could be 2 bullish options. 1. Less bullish leading diagonal: In this scenario, we should see 3 wave move up to make new highs for primary wave 3. The lazier the start, the stronger validation for this scenario. Depending on, if the structure is expanding or contracting, the target could be somewhere in between $11 to $70 in the next two years or so. Lazier the action, lower the target. As long as the last wick low holds SUI can chug along. 2. More bullish 1/2, 1/2: In this scenario, the current price action is even a lower degree, maybe a minute degree 1/2 in progress. In this scenario, there is no room for additional downtime. Price needs to move soon and very strongly. Price can correct a bit more, maybe test the $1.5 support, but things cannot drag on for months. Decision time should be in a couple of weeks give or take one week. After that, macro wave 3 or 3 of 3 of 3 should be the strongest and longest leg for SUI. 3. Bear case: If the black Friday wick low is lost, then things will look really nasty. It may take a while for SUI to recover. I still believe in the technological fundamental that drives the hype. In theory it is the perfect fit for AI driven economy and content. Will it translate into real life use cases, we will have to wait and see. I did add to my bag during the crash and still holding. If price falls below $1.5, then will need to reassess the whole situation.

One thing for sure, Uptober has flopped big time! Market recovery is not on the horizon just yet. BTC is more likely to shed some more value in terms of dollars. Major Alts are back above major support, but if those will hold or not, will be found out in the upcoming weeks. The big question is, if the bull market done? If we go by the 4 year halving cycle, then one could make an argument that the bull market is over for the next 18 months. To be completely honest, all major price targets have been hit for this cycle. Not only for BTC, but also for SPX, NDX, Gold, major Alts, etc. So, what is there to complain about? Well, first of all, this crash is totally manmade (AHEM!!!). And second, Crypto industry was just getting its very first legitimate institutional led headwind and it stalled before it could really take off! Frustrating, for sure; unexpected, not really! Now, in terms of how bad it can get, we need to look if support levels can hold. I will have a few stop losses to get me out of this mess if things start to fall apart. First is the 108k level. It almost gave in, but holding on. If that fails, then 89k level. It is very important to hold. If we see daily closes or weekly close below it, then 74k pivot will be tested and most likely fail. If that fails then the 70k-65k cluster and if that is not enough then 50K. Below 50k, I don't think any institution will be comfortable to hold on. So, if that fails, it is really game over! No one knows what will really happen. In past cycles, big draw downs have marked a low, but this time it is a bit different. Previous drops like this have been in the bottom of the cycle and this time it's at the top. So, unless BTC can shrug this off and take advantage of the dollar decline and start to head back up, we need to prepare for the bear market. The bull market is still intact if BTC can bounce off one of the fib levels and start making new highs. If that happens, then we will see the last leg of the extended wave 5 move! We do not want to see price closing below $89k on daily closing basis.

ADA is slowly setting up for a move. Looking for a short term retrace to setup an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Right now, 1 hour RSI has bearish divergence. This dip will reset the momentum and should setup for a big move. There will be several degrees of wave 3 starting at this time, so, I would expect something rather explosive. If it not coming out of the gate blazing, then something would not be right. It would be easier to set a stop loss. Right now, I will deploy a bit more capital on the upcoming dip to make the bag heavier.

Doge is coming up on a resistance, making local higher high as RSI is still a lower high. So far, the structure looks to be a 3 wave move. The 5 waves move seems to be a part of a bigger 3 waves move, making it very difficult to count as an impulse overall. Hense the idea of an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals can form a structure over a very long period and it is almost impossible to identify until it is almost over. So, this idea will be something I will be tracking closely but, still not the primary idea. For now, overall markets are getting frothy, and a correction seems to be imminent. At this moment, having a true breakout to push RSI higher seems to be less probable, but not impossible. So, if price starts to retrace over the next 2-4 weeks, it might be the B wave before the yearend rally to complete C of 3. It could also be a leading diagonal to a wave 1 of 5, but we can talk about that down the road depending on the macro landscape.

BTC price breaking below $112k is a big deal. It made a lower low similar to June, but from EW perspective, it marked the completion of a significant top. It also confirmed that the inverse head and shoulder pattern has failed. Now, there are several pathways opened up where price can either take a nosedive or chop around a bit or go back up with even greater intensity and there is no way of knowing which one, until it happens. 1. Blue path: this could be an extension of minuette degree wave 5. Instead of completing subminuette 5 waves move, maybe it is only the wave 1 of 5. If that is the case, then this correction should be winding down very soon. This move down in price during August looks to be a three waves move, most likely a wxy. It has tapped the golden zone from June low to August high. For blue path to be true, we should see $112k regained early next week and ATH reached before end of September. If this plays out, then we will see the parabola that everyone is waiting for! 2. Green path: this assumes minute degree wave 3 has completed and wave 4 is on going. This would be the most painful scenario, since the chop will be quite brutal and shakeout a lot of people on both sides. specially if price action takes a triangle shape, then it can go on for a while. The move down so far is in 3 waves and the first wave being in another 3 waves, it is most probable that the overall move will not be an impulse. It might turn out to be a diagonal to start wave 1 to the downside, but that will be an alternate count of an alternate count. For now, this scenario will assume a slow ride down to $90-$70k, hopefully support at the trendline in the next 2-3 months. 3. Red path: most bearish. Would assume minute degree wave 5 is complete and has marked the completion of Minor wave 1. Minor wave 2 can travel a lot. To reach the golden zone could take price to $32k. The confirmation would be the trend line break in the $85k region. Depending on how fast the price drops, it may last for the next 6-8 months with steep bounces along the way. Right now, exiting is the most difficult decision to make. I would be extremely careful to put any leverage on either side of the trade. I have taken profit but not going to either exit or put more capital at this moment.

Since my last update on SUI, very little has changed. There has been a series of wave 1 and wave 2. Unless something changes on the macro and SUI price fails to break above $4.43 in the next 2-3 weeks, it should be time to start a series of wave 3s. This melt up should last for 6 months to 1 year and price target should be around $30 to complete intermediate degree wave 3. Overall market is very tricky right now. A lot of news driven and emotional trades are dominating price action. So, if we don't see well defined and very strong upward moves, something different might be going on. For now, holding tightly until price breaks below $2.

SPX is coming up on the support area around 6300. Next week will be the do or die test. If support trendline breaks, then probability of Minor degree B wave goes up by a lot. Right now, the bullish scenario is on the red path. If, SPX gets support on the trendline and bounces to make another ATH along with Daily and Weekly RSI making another lower high, then that would be the local top. More bearish scenario is if the support breaks right now. That will put SPX on the green path; breakdown, retest trendline and then crash. In that case, should expect correction to last till the end of September; maybe till mid October, and then the Halloween rally to finish up the year. Should expect market to get down to 0.618 to 0.5 fib level before the down turn is over. Do not want to see the market get below 5k. For now, the trendline is where the next move will most likely be decided. I do not think the generational crash is here just yet. There are still a lot of investors on the side lines. Crypto market still hasn't seen the blow off top. Underlying economy is still holding steady, even though some cracks are appearing. Depending on how the correction unfolds, either a 3 or a 5 waves move, we will find out the magnitude and the degree.

After breaking out of $0.27 Doge is poised to go to the next level at $0.49. Expecting a pullback to get in, but market may not provide a lot of time to think about it. At this point 2 counts are at play and both bullish. Blue count: tracking an ending diagonal pattern. The two 5 waves moves; one from Oct 2023 low and one from Aug 2024 low could be a zigzag. Now we need to see how the wave 3 forms. If we see another 3 waves move that stalls between fib 1 to 1.236 extension ($1.2 - $ 1.7), and price falls below $0.49, then ending diagonal is most likely. Black count: Instead of a zigzag, this count assumes we have a 1/2, 1/2 and primed for a 3 of 3 move. In this case, we should still expect a resistance at $1.2 but price should not break below $0.49. and the way the waves form would be a lot more impulsive. Crypto market has a lot of tailwinds at the moment and might decouple from the overall markets. As rotation begins, on top of pent-up institutional demand, things might go crazy. Doge has a good use case with backing from Musk and his platforms.

The recent price action from end of June low is creeping up but not a very impulsive way. The drop from May high is in a 5 waves move. That makes things a bit open to interpretation. 5 waves move can both start or end a sequence. So, the question is, if the correction over already or if Doge is heading for another sharp move down. If the later, then we should expect price to drop in another 5 waves move down to 11c - 9c area. right below wave A, 13c area. If that happens, then it will be a solid buy for me. In no circumstances, price can fall below primary wave 4, 5.6c. If that happens then a much bigger primary wave 4 would be in progress and we should expect price to fall below 3c. If the correction is over and Doge is heading towards $1, then we should see the pullback very soon and sharp move above 26c. Price cannot break the 14c low. Only above wave B we can confidently say that the correction is over, and Doge is going towards $1. At the moment, still in a no man's land.

The move up from June 5th low has been in 3 waves. The current global economic situations have rattled the overall markets this week. Even though BTC is holding the 102k support so far, things are getting much weaker as time passes. If the 102 K support breaks, then we will most likely see a flush down to 95k-90k area. Personally, I will be cautious buyer there. Even a stroll down to 85k won't be super bearish long term. Anything below that might spell bad news. Starting small and assessing the situation will be key. I don't put stop loss on BTC. But, if price keeps getting lower highs, then, breaking 80k will be my signal to get out on the next spike and reassess the situation.