mukit1

The recent price action from end of June low is creeping up but not a very impulsive way. The drop from May high is in a 5 waves move. That makes things a bit open to interpretation. 5 waves move can both start or end a sequence. So, the question is, if the correction over already or if Doge is heading for another sharp move down. If the later, then we should expect price to drop in another 5 waves move down to 11c - 9c area. right below wave A, 13c area. If that happens, then it will be a solid buy for me. In no circumstances, price can fall below primary wave 4, 5.6c. If that happens then a much bigger primary wave 4 would be in progress and we should expect price to fall below 3c. If the correction is over and Doge is heading towards $1, then we should see the pullback very soon and sharp move above 26c. Price cannot break the 14c low. Only above wave B we can confidently say that the correction is over, and Doge is going towards $1. At the moment, still in a no man's land.

The move up from June 5th low has been in 3 waves. The current global economic situations have rattled the overall markets this week. Even though BTC is holding the 102k support so far, things are getting much weaker as time passes. If the 102 K support breaks, then we will most likely see a flush down to 95k-90k area. Personally, I will be cautious buyer there. Even a stroll down to 85k won't be super bearish long term. Anything below that might spell bad news. Starting small and assessing the situation will be key. I don't put stop loss on BTC. But, if price keeps getting lower highs, then, breaking 80k will be my signal to get out on the next spike and reassess the situation.

I am planning on buying and holding for now. SUI probably has the best chart among all altcoins at the moment. Beautiful higher highs and higher lows with perfect 45 degree angle and textbook Elliott wave look; it can't get any better. I started to buy last year and loaded up again during the recent correction and will plan on adding on every dip. Stop loss at the last low around $1.7 and it will move up as we see new higher lows. Fundamentally it seems to have everything going for it. It is fast and trying to be decentralized as a core feature. But similar to Solana, it needs to figure out how to minimize outages and exploits and hopefully will make the necessary changes soon to truly compete against ETH, SOL and ADA. As a new generation layer 1, it holds a lot of promise, so I will be in it for a while unless it proves itself otherwise.

This weekend looks like the crypto God candle weekend for the majors. Doge is also looking strong, but chance of it being part of the US strategic reserve is slim to none. But, when tide is rising, it doesn't matter. Right now, the challenge in front of doge is to get out of the downward channel, and fast. The price action has two bullish scenarios left. Depending on how strong the momentum gets, one or the other should come to pass.1. Ending diagonal (pink): The price action for both intermediate 1 and Minor 1 can be counted as 3 waves zigzag or five waves and be valid. This is something that EW sometimes cannot paint a clean picture until a lot of time passes. But as traders, we need to just figure out the next move and be prepared. In case doge is playing out an ending diagonal pattern, then we should see 3 waves moves to the upside. And since, it is an expanding diagonal, we should see wave 5 is larger than wave 3. So, as a normal range of 1 to 1.236 extension, price should top out between $1.1 to $1.6. The confirmation will be a sharp decline from the top.2. Wave 3 of 3 of 5 (blue): probability of this should be greater with a strong momentum to the upside. We should see price rocket out of the channel and get to all time high before a meaningful pullback. Price should break through $1 milestone and go higher without stopping for a breather as we have seen in the previous rocket moves. Target will be $6-$10 and level of insanity will be at its peak!How to trade between the two scenarios: The difference of targets between the two scenarios is massive. We don't want to take a risk of losing all the gains in matter of days, nor do we want to stay on the sidelines when price makes 6x gains in matter of weeks. So, to stay safe, it is important to take some profit between 1 - 1.236 fib extension (at least 25% - 30%) and put a stop loss at $0.48 for the rest. There could be other higher areas to put the stop loss to phase out with more gains, but $0.48, which is the top of minor wave 1, and breaking that will be the confirmation of the top. If price doesn't make it to that level and goes back up to make strong highs, then buy back in at the breakout (this would be one of the scenarios where we can buy a breakout) to jump back on the ship and ride the lightning. Bear case: There is always the other side of the coin. If price fails to break above $0.28 and the channel, then chances are, the downtrend will continue. It can keep going down to find support at the trend lines. If the trend lines break, then chance of primary wave 4 still in play goes higher. Target can be anything till $0,018. Hope that is not the case...

After breaking out of $0.18 area, Doge has made a nice 5 waves move. Now it is time to see if it was just another C wave to extend its dreaded multiyear correction, or if it is, in fact, the bull run that the bag holders have been waiting for years. I will not want to see Doge breaking below the $0.23 support area of March 2024 high. I would be perfect if Doge can bounce from 0.618 fib support area of $0.24. The next week or 2 will be crucial to see how price action evolves. Price will have to break below $0.12 to be really bearish. Until then, would like to see BTC and other top names put in the lows and start making new highs.Moment of truth....If price cannot hold support this week, a lot of hurt will ensue. Ideally this low should mark the bottom of minor 2 and we should see an upward trend. But the macro fundamental picture is shifting with new trade wars and that is not very good for the markets. It is time to be very cautious and add stop loss.

So far, BTC is following the extended path to complete wave 5 to end minor degree wave 1. IF price falls below 86k, then I may have to up the internal wave degrees to lower the targets, but even then, the extension target should be 2.618 fib extension of minute degree wave 1 and 2; at 160k. For now, I am watching if 96k support holds for micro degree wave 2. This week will be crucial to get back on the narrative train and start making higher highs. Longer BTC is stuck in this range, greater the probability of distribution cycle and that will not be good for the overall crypto market.

Back in September, I was tracking BTC price action as a start of an ending diagonal pattern. The movement out of August low looked like a 3 waves pattern. Even though, it still looks like a 3 waves pattern, the breakout from early November is definitely no diagonal pattern. It is a clear wave 3 of some degree. I have been expecting BTC to hit 100k milestone, but I was thinking it as a touch and go the other way kind. The current structure is most likely proving me wrong about the strength of that milestone. I have to admit, I will most like eat my words when I said 100k will get people holding the bag.From EW perspective, I can dig out a wonky leading diagonal pattern from August price action to call it a wave 1 and Sep low a wave 2. Now, this wave 3 needs to break 100k and stay above 100k for a few days to prove the strength. Wave 4 should stay well above 74k and get support on one of the fib locations. How far BTC will go this cycle is anyone's guess. But the lesson here is, if one tries to predict the top, one will miss out!

Since the breakout from the $0.14 level, Doge has been on a rip. Right now, we are seeing the first pause on this run. A modest 23% draw down looks to be the reload area. But keep in mind that we have only seen a 3 waves sequence. Until a full 5 waves sequence is complete, there is always a chance of full retracement. So, it is imperative to put a stop loss to keep the capital safe. In the situations like this, it cannot be a risk-free mode. Will need to take some risk. And this case, the risk to get in here is over 35% (but with a significant reward possibility or more that 10:1). The invalidation area is all the down at $0.2. But if things work out and we get a full sequence, stop line can be raised up along with taking some profit at the end of one leg and getting it back during correction will eventually make it fairly risk free until it reaches the Minor wave 1 target, which could be an ATH at about $1.5. Next few weeks will most likely be busy.

The last cycle and current cycle are looking extremely similar. Price finally decided on a direction, and it has been a ripper so far. Overlaying the parabolic run from last cycle may give us some ideas. Will it play out exactly? No one knows. Will there be pullbacks along the way? you bet your behind. I am gearing up for BTFD and have accumulated a little bit outside of the box. But I am not going to risk it all by going all in all at once. I will set stop loss even if it is a little far away from the liquidity grab areas...

The recent price action makes the probability of wave 2 of primary degree complete. But, to be confident, we must see price breaking above 52 cents and then getting support above 40 cents. Otherwise, market can still play tricks on us and make this pump a wave c for another higher degree B wave and crush the bag holders hopes and dreams. But until 31 cents breaks, I am flipping on the bull side for now.