Technical analysis by mukit1 about Symbol BTC on 10/11/2025

One thing for sure, Uptober has flopped big time! Market recovery is not on the horizon just yet. BTC is more likely to shed some more value in terms of dollars. Major Alts are back above major support, but if those will hold or not, will be found out in the upcoming weeks. The big question is, if the bull market done? If we go by the 4 year halving cycle, then one could make an argument that the bull market is over for the next 18 months. To be completely honest, all major price targets have been hit for this cycle. Not only for BTC, but also for SPX, NDX, Gold, major Alts, etc. So, what is there to complain about? Well, first of all, this crash is totally manmade (AHEM!!!). And second, Crypto industry was just getting its very first legitimate institutional led headwind and it stalled before it could really take off! Frustrating, for sure; unexpected, not really! Now, in terms of how bad it can get, we need to look if support levels can hold. I will have a few stop losses to get me out of this mess if things start to fall apart. First is the 108k level. It almost gave in, but holding on. If that fails, then 89k level. It is very important to hold. If we see daily closes or weekly close below it, then 74k pivot will be tested and most likely fail. If that fails then the 70k-65k cluster and if that is not enough then 50K. Below 50k, I don't think any institution will be comfortable to hold on. So, if that fails, it is really game over! No one knows what will really happen. In past cycles, big draw downs have marked a low, but this time it is a bit different. Previous drops like this have been in the bottom of the cycle and this time it's at the top. So, unless BTC can shrug this off and take advantage of the dollar decline and start to head back up, we need to prepare for the bear market. The bull market is still intact if BTC can bounce off one of the fib levels and start making new highs. If that happens, then we will see the last leg of the extended wave 5 move! We do not want to see price closing below $89k on daily closing basis.