koryu

a dot appeared in a dream and some autistic thoughts, but it all made sense and then this target for eigen magically appeared in my mind. not financial advicetrade still active, entry has been too early and eth ecosystem is lagging behind. EIGEN needs to do a higher low here to then go into price discovery later.

Trying to figure out the target for the bitcoin bubble that usually occurs after the all-time high.We've seen in the past that bitcoin usually has a big correction after topping of 94%, 86%, 84% and 78%. The bear markets are bloody, but still a bit softer each time while the market majors, so I am assuming a 70% decline this time.I also assume that the log regression support will hold during the next bear market, so we can expect bitcoin to bottom at around 50k to 100k, but most likely around 50-75k depending on how long it takes to bottom. To have such a bloody bear market and then bottom around there, btc would have to go much higher before that, something around 180k-260k.Another option we have is to check the Fib extension levels. The 2013 and 2017 bubbles topped at or above the 17.944 fib, while the weak 2021 bubble topped at the 3.618 fib. These fibs would point to 209k and 979k. The third option I see is to use the top line of the log regression (marked as red line) which is around 300k-400k.Since it is unlikely for btc to go above the log regression high, it is very unlikely for bitcoin to hit the 979k target.To compare the current move with previous bubbles, I added the 2017 and 2021 fractals after BTC hit its all-time high.My conclusion from this is that I think 180k is a conservative target that will very likely be hit, 240k is also still likely and up to 350k is on the cards. Anything above that is unlikely but not impossible.We also need to remember that the ETF and the arrival of institutions can change the market dynamics so that past price movements may have become less relevant.source for Bitcoin Log regression, Log/Log power law: charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/Regarding the term bubble vs. cycle: in 2013 and 2017, when BTC reached the 17.944 fib, we talked about the bitcoin "bubble", while since 2021 we talk more about the bitcoin "cycle". However, I think they mean the same thing and there will be blood after. But first we will ride it to the top.

The current ETHUSD weekly is very similar to the BTCUSD daily from the beginning of 2019.It is likely to follow BTC. Fees on ETH are rising, which creates a positive feedback loop as staking revenue increases.also compare with the sol reversalethbtc shows some rebound signalsapproval of btc etfs means higher chance for eth etf approval in may/june. so it's likely that the market will price that in now.BTC Dominance had a bear div and a lower high with rsi bear div trendline rejection, indicating momentum shift towards altcoins. Could form a head and shoulders top next. Watching.

"$FWB:PEPE is a meme coin with no intrinsic value or expectation of financial return. There is no formal team or roadmap. the coin is completely useless and for entertainment purposes only."That said, it looks like PEPE is becoming the memecoin of this cycle, when I compare the pepe chart with the doge chart, pepe looks much cleaner. Also the volume vs market cap favors PEPE.If it breaks above 140, it should target 200 and 330 with a classic 5-wave impulse.People like to gamble on memecoins so doge went to 75b market cap in the last cycle. But doge is now full of bagholders, so I guess PEPE will be the better alternative.Picking up a tiny position in it. It can also easily get rekt to 0 as its totally useless.Would be funny if pepe becomes the memecoin of this cycle and outperforms btc while being completely uselessgood start on it, i personally avoid leverage on all shitcoins.pepe price in satoshi, funny how it outperformed btc during this current pump.also made higher high and higher low after bull div.Ticker: BINANCE:PEPEUSDT/BINANCE:BTCUSDT*10^8expecting pepe to move like eth on leverage

Let's take a closer look at what's going on with Cosmos.In the past, the top 100 cryptocurrencies and crypto projects were mostly dominated by eth-related projects, that's still the case, but there is one ecosystem that caught up a lot during the bear market, it's Cosmos. Currently, 8 out of 100 are using Cosmos technology (ATOM, CRO, RUNE, INJ, TIA, KAVA, DYDX), with some more coming close to the top 100 like OSMO and AKT.The rest are basically ETH related projects, with one moving to Solana (RNDR) and also some adopting AVAX as an alternative to eth L2s. But overall it looks to me like Cosmos is the strongest ecosystem to catch up with Ethereum.Why is that? With Cosmos, anyone can create their own chain and connect it to the other chains using IBC (Inter-Blockchain Communication Protocol). IBC can also be implemented in non-Cosmos chains like currently in SOL and AVAX.There are many bridges, but IBC is becoming the most dominant and trusted bridge. When a chain implements IBC, it breaks out of its closed ecosystem and assets can move freely between all other chains that implement IBC.During the bear market, Cosmos added a new feature called ICS (Interchain Security). This allows anyone to create their own Cosmos chain without using their own validator set, instead using ATOM's validators for security. When using ICS, the transaction fees go to the ATOM stakers.There is now an interesting project using ICS called Noble. Circle is using Noble to bring it's USDC stablecoin to Cosmos. This is very important because Cosmos lost its main stablecoin UST after the Luna collapse and has been missing a major stable in its ecosystem ever since. On November 28th, Circle will activate it's Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) for Noble. It will allow users on Ethereum to burn their USDC there and generate new USDC on Noble. DYDX, the leading decentralized derivatives exchange, is currently moving to its own chain on Cosmos. With the activation of the CCTP, USDC from Ethereum can be easily moved to the DYDX chain, kickstarting DYDX v4 and USDC on Cosmos.Now let's talk about the halving. When you look at the Cosmos chart, it sometimes looks like it is underperforming. But people forget that it has high inflation and that inflation is paid out as a bonus. In addition, Cosmos also had a lot of top airdrops, which gave additional yield and are not visible in the chart.After a wild 2 weeks, the ATOM proposal 848 was finally passed yesterday, which reduces the inflation to a maximum of 10%. It's a sudden halving and it was not guaranteed that this halving would come, in fact it just flipped from no to yes during the last day. So this halving should not be priced in. Imo ATOM solving its issuance problem was the last piece of the puzzle for ATOM to turn bullish. High inflation was used to get a 67% bonded rate and punish non-stakers But high inflation has two problems, even if only non stakers were diluted. We have to pay taxes on the staking income, so even the stakers get diluted. The other problem is that prices are inelastic, and the constant selling of ATOMs by stakers hurts the price more than expected. Some voices are afraid that ATOM will become less safe with lower inflation, but I think there is no evidence for this and the truth should be revealed in the next few months.Because the halving proposal was controversial, some of the pro-inflation crowd are planning to fork ATOM and airdrop the new token to "No Voters". This gives me BCH flashbacks. There is a risk that some of them will sell their ATOM, but I think that would be a bad choice. What we saw with BCH is that it's hard to get a minority behind the same goal. BCH forked twice more just because people could not agree on its direction and the forks became irrelevant. Those who sold their bitcoin for those forks made a bad decision. This would be clear if ATOM can keep a high bonded rate despite lower inflation. So I think even if you are against the lower inflation its better to hold on to ATOM in case you are wrong.Now that we have the fundamentals, let's look at the chart. I think that the price is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern and should break it fairly soon with a target of ~$18. If that happens and the price hits the target. There should be a big Adam and Eve double bottom on the chart with a target around 41$. This would mean that ATOM would have to reach back to its old ath and if it can break out of it, it has a chance to reach the channel high as a moon target of around 200$ at the top of the new cycle.A lot of cryptos will be pumping if the new cycle happens as expected. Therefore, I think it is also important to keep an eye on the ATOM dominance, which is also currently forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which would then make it break out of its logarithmic downtrend.All this makes me think that ATOM could be a top alt pick for this cycle.Special thanks to twitter.com/RupsysMarius for helping me figure things out about Cosmos, follow the guy as he knows more about Cosmos than I do ;)Also DYOR, no financial advice!sources:(I wanted to post the sources here, but TradingView did not allow me to post the links, so you will have to fact check yourself.)Some think they can corner the market and keep the price down, but it usually ends in tears.4 million USDC transferred to Noble and into DYDX since CCTP activation yesterday datalenses.zone/chain/dydx/bridgeThe Atom price is now back above the body of the halving day candle.It also still has 65.7% bonded tokens. The supply that was unstaked and sold was bought and staked again.If btc moves fast, most alts will have to wait. Still think this looks great for atom here, just needs more time.there are now 11 cosmos chains in the top 100 cryptos, ecosystem keeps growingATOM is back at the price of the body of the halving day candle.Performance of ATOM itself is not good so far, but it gave the DYM airdrop, also it gave TIA before and TIA also gave more DYM, its compounding a lot and overall gives a great performance which is not shown in the chart. Its important that if you hold ATOM, you really need to take part in governance and claim the airdrops, otherwise you will miss the real performance.To qualify for airdrops, use a non exchange validator, ideally avoid the largest validators, vote on proposals, and keep yourself up to date what projects are launching in the cosmos ecosystem.Also there are a lot of other interesting beta plays around the cosmos ecosystem growing.

I just looked into the crystal ball and it told me the big frontrun is coming. It said the 2nd pre halving rally is also fuel by the etf frontrun, laughed about my 46k target and then it warned all bears:"The path of the righteous man is beset on all sidesby the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men.Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good willShepherds the weak through the valley of darkness.For he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children.And I will strike down upon thee,with great vengeance and furious anger,the bears who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers.And you will know my name is the bull,when I lay my vengeance upon thee."breaking 38kPeople are buying money.CME is going to open with a gap to 40k after a rare weekend pumpWhen I researched this idea, I looked for similar price action and similar RSI behavior (resetting RSI on bear div with hidden bull div, with an unconventional bull flag upside after a quick rise). It gave me 2 fractals, the one used in this idea is from 2019 but there was another one from 2012. Both matched really well. I thought 2019 was more likely, but so far 2012 matches even better. This is the 2012 fractal:So everything points to a sell the news event on ETF approval in January 2024.BTC failed to hold above 43400 which was an important level on the 4 hour chart. Now there is still a CME gap open at 39k which has some risk to close.I think that 39k-41k should be a solid support now, a lot of btc changed hands in the 37k region and sellers get their chance to get back in, also still plenty of sideline money wanting to get in, so I think its unlikely we will see a major 30%-50% correction like we saw in previous cycles. Need to go much higher before that.I think leverage gets washed out, and Christmas time can be chopy.While the fractals give us an idea of direction and timing, we cannot rely on them alone. But trendfollowing signals on daily and weekly both remain intact for me even if would test 39k.News for this dip was twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1734277882166313349Bill would mean a ban of bitcoin in USA, that would hurt a lot of people, so it's like 0% chance to pass.Warren does a lot of BS all the time, wonder if this is true but I guess it is: twitter.com/lopp/status/1603129259790598145Bitcoin has been climbing a wall of worry.Not much happened in December for the Bitcoin price; it started to form a possible triangle, which usually indicates trend continuation. So its more likely to break up than down. But in case it breaks down, it could form an ABC pullback and might find support around $38-39k, allowing for a new dip entry.The big frontrun fractal showed a stronger initial move, but the timing matches. If it follows the fractal, BTC should move again soon.triangle remained intact. Usually triangles have 5 waves: ABCDE but sometimes they break out on D wave already.Btc broke out without a D-wave and was rejected on the first try.The market washed out 500m of leverage with this scam wick and is still trying to break out of the triangle to the upside. But its uncertain if price can go higher.Market did a good job, I dont see anyone having a strong opinion on either outcome anymore, same for me. But I remain slightly bullish, especially as long as btc is above the daily ma20.good luck!As we can see in the chart there are usually two rallys before the halving.In 2020 the 2nd rally was interrupted by a global liquidity shock (covid).2016 and 2012 were similar, only the 2nd rally in 2016 was followed by the Bitfinex hack.This time it looks like 2012 and 2016 again. Based on this theory, one would expect btc to go sideways or sideways down into the halving.But this time there are the etfs coming, so it could be an outlier to the upside, just like covid was an outlier to the downside.So we can ask ourselves the questions:If we assume 2016, will we have some major bearish news like the bitfinex hack?If we assume 2020, will there be a global bearish event like covid?If not, then we can assume a sideways phase into the halving or an outlier to the upside.s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/9/9Gl3GfpC.pngSo it seems like the price is still too low for a "sell the news" event on bitcoin etfs. Today we will see the demand for the etfs and if market makers can provide enough liquidity for etf buyers. Also the frontrun for the halving is still in progress.looks like the frontrun could be over for now and there are higher chances that btc goes sideways into the halving. long term weekly charts for the cycle remain bullish but any leverage seems risky here.new idea needed.seems like it was programmed

Bitcoin is turning bullish on a weekly basis for the first time after a deep red bear market phase. This is a huge signal and usually indicates the beginning of the next cycle.I have marked the deep red phase in purple and the first weekly signal with an arrow on the chart.This is the first phase of the cycle, so I would not expect any crazy end-of-cycle moves. But for now, dips should be a gift from heaven. In the past we have seen 30-50% corrections within the cycle. So we need to be prepared for that as BTC approaches and breaks its ath.We will have to figure out the target during the next year but I think it will be 6 digits.1 like on the idea... people have little conviction?all the forced selling already happened during the bear which pushed the price way below the weekly ma200, coins moved to strong hands with conviction, we bulls bought it all up and are not going to give up on btc right before the etf and halving.It will not be an easy ride to the new ath, it will take some time and we cannot take all the leverage traders with us to the moon.the rsi gives me 2015 flashbacksYesterday we saw 9k net inflows into the ETF versus 0.9k new BTC mined. Boomers are buying, there has been supply from gbtc, but we see as soon as there are small outflows from gbtc, btc has to be bought on the open market. With Genesis there is still one big seller left in GBTC with about 30k btc: blockworks.co/news/genesis-offloading-gbtcSo there is still some supply, but once all that is eaten up, boomers will have to find sellers, and there will not be many left. Meanwhile, the halving will halve the daily freshly mined btc to 0.45k.btc is really strong. the price went back down to the midline of the channel and is now back at the upper line, i think if btc breaks out it will move to ath. if not it might become boring for a while again. The weekly rsi, is still looking similar to 2015/2016 early bull market phase, neckline got tested and acted as support.I think if btc breaks out of the channel, crypto is leaving the early bull market phase and entering the bubble phase.bitcoin already broke out of the channel and with it the bubble started.I think it will not fall back in the channel anymore, so all corrections should be above the upper channel high.the crypto bubble usually takes 6-18 months, very hard to guess as this cycle is a bit different from others, with the etf the bull already started way before the halving.what we saw in previous bubbles is that altcoins usually have their best time once bitcoin is close or above its ath, so we will likely see some more crazy alts pumps in the near future.good luckbreaking ath :)The post halving consolidation phase is now coming to an end, and while we have been able to enjoy the summer and chill, it is time to start paying attention again as BTC starts to move higher for its next leg up.It's 6 digits

In the short history of bitcoin, its price usually pumped two times before the halving. I think many people currently focus too much on 2019/2020, which could be recency bias. I see 2020 as an outlier where the second pre halving pump was interrupted by a black swan event.See yourself how bitcoin first rallys from the bear market lows and then has another leg before the halving.201220162020So I think higher prices are more likely than lower. In case the price drops below 24k, I would expect a 2nd pump just from a lower level around 19k-21k.looks good so far but i think it will be a ride on disbelief with some pullbacks inbetween. the target remains around 46k over the next months.The btc price is moving like a magnet to the target, just faster than expected. Not complaining about it tho.looks like btc is ready to make its move towards 46k, weekly, daily and 2h all turned bullish.2h failed, seems like btc needs more time and we need more patience. once 38k breaks, btc should accelerate.i am starting to think that if 38k breaks there is a chance to see a bigger rally than 46k because this 2nd pre-halving rally has the halving and etf being frontrunned vs just the halving in previous cycles so it could look something like this:I think the 46k target is too low because like 2020 covid was an outlier to the downside, the etf is an outlier to the upside. Imo its more likely to go to ath before the etf which is likely to come on January 10th.new idea is here:this idea reached the target. but this was before the etf news. so btc reached its target for the 2nd pre halving rally which should also have happened without the etf.

Bitcoin ote buy I am expecting a strong up reaction to the important weekly support levels of the weekly ma200 around 26300 and the weekly ma20 around 25600, so it should be an optimal trade entry to buy the btc dip in this pull back phase. With the strong long term support it can then form a new short term uptrend channel and likely retest the 30k price level.

Dydx has completed a wyckoff accumulation and is entering the mark up phase after throwbackalso completed textbook 1-2 EW