Thecantillonreport

While retail traders chased the breakout to $500, we have been waiting for the "Mean Reversion." Tesla is currently cooling off, but this is not a crash—it is a Liquidity Reset. The Institutional View: Smart money rarely buys parabolic extensions. They wait for price to return to the "Cost Basis." Our volume analysis identifies a critical Structural Floor building around $400 The Setup: We are watching for a "Backtest" of this breakout zone. The Logic: This area was previous resistance in October/November. It is now likely to flip to support as institutions defend their average entry. The Trap: Buying here ($437) is "No Man's Land." The edge lies in patience—waiting for the flush into liquidity. The Plan: Watch: $400 Signal: We are looking for "Passive Absorption" (Volume spiking but price refusing to drop lower) at this level. Invalidation: A daily close below $380 breaks the immediate bullish structure. We don't chase Green Candles. We buy Red Flushes.

Regime: Bearish HTF Bias: Bearish Position: Flat STRUCTURE Price sitting exactly at POC (137.67). Fair value — the level where most volume traded. But fair value doesn't mean bullish. Price is 4% below AVWAP. Institutions are underwater. Rallies get sold. Signal fired — only a 2. Low confluence. KEY LEVELS +1σ → 163.35 AVWAP → 143.53 (resistance) POC → 137.67 (current — decision point) -1σ → 123.72 (first target zone) -2σ → 103.90 CVD READ Collapsed in December. Now grinding higher near zero. Buying pressure building, but price not confirming. Mixed signals = low confluence. Regime says short. CVD says "not yet." SCENARIOS AVWAP rejection: Rally to 143-145, gets sold. Better short entry with higher confluence. POC breakdown: Price fails here, breaks 135. Acceleration toward -1σ. AVWAP reclaim: Regime shifts. Bearish thesis paused. BOTTOM LINE Bearish regime. Price at POC. POC is a decision point, not a signal. The edges pay. The middle chops. Wait for AVWAP rejection or POC breakdown. Don't force it here. Exact entries and position sizing in bio.

Regime: Bearish HTF Bias: Bearish Position: Watching STRUCTURE Price continues below AVWAP (92,860). Yesterday's failed reclaim confirmed the bearish regime. Now chopping just under institutional cost basis. A signal fired — but only a 2. Low confluence. Structure says short. Signal says be careful. KEY LEVELS +1σ → 100,017 AVWAP → 92,860 (resistance) Current → 91,794 POC → 87,526 (first target zone) -1σ → 85,703 CVD READ Caution flag. CVD trending higher while price stays below AVWAP. Possible interpretations: Short squeeze building Distribution into retail buying Chop before continuation Rising CVD is why signal is weak. Mixed signals require patience. SCENARIOS Grind lower: Price stays below AVWAP, works down to POC. Bearish plays out slowly. Squeeze then reject: Rally to AVWAP gets sold. Better entry on higher confluence signal. AVWAP reclaims: CVD wins. Bearish thesis paused. Wait for clarity. BOTTOM LINE Bearish regime. Signal fired but low confluence. The framework says: trade the setup, size to the conviction. Not every trade is full size. This one requires patience and discipline. Exact entries, stops, and position sizing in bio.

Regime: Conflicted HTF Bias: Bearish Position: Flat STRUCTURE Price reclaimed AVWAP (92,858). Now trading at 93,738, +0.95% above institutional cost basis. Saturday: Below AVWAP, bearish. Plan was short rallies. Monday: Above AVWAP. Picture changed — but HTF still bearish. When price and HTF conflict, we wait. KEY LEVELS +1σ → 100,073 (potential short zone if HTF stays bearish) Current → 93,738 AVWAP → 92,858 (just reclaimed) POC → 87,526 (fair value, support if regime fails) -1σ → 85,643 CVD READ Near zero. Mixed signals. Price pushing up without strong CVD confirmation. This looks like short covering, not fresh demand. Caution warranted. THE SETUP Two paths. Waiting for one to trigger. Short setup: Entry: +1σ zone (97-100k) Condition: HTF stays bearish, CVD diverges Stop: Above 101k Target: AVWAP, then POC Long setup: Entry: AVWAP retest (92,858) Condition: HTF flips bullish, AVWAP holds as support Stop: Below 91k Target: +1σ Until one triggers, flat. SCENARIOS Relief rally then fail: Price pushes to +1σ, exhausts, rolls over. Bearish HTF reasserts. Short opportunity. AVWAP holds: Price dips to AVWAP, bounces, HTF flips. Regime shift confirmed. Long opportunity. Failed reclaim: Price drops back below AVWAP. Bearish resumes. Short on the failure. BOTTOM LINE AVWAP reclaimed. That's notable. But one bullish day doesn't flip a bearish regime. HTF hasn't confirmed. Flat until clarity. Patience is the position. Full daily analysis with all positions on Substack. Link in bio.Rejected at Avwap. Would have been a great short but unfortunately did not. You win some you loose some. Still flat on BTC perp.

Volume Profile is one of the most underutilized tools in technical analysis. This guide breaks down how to read it and combine it with AVWAP for a complete market structure framework. VOLUME PROFILE BASICS Most traders use volume over time (the bars at the bottom). Volume Profile shows volume at price — where buyers and sellers actually agreed. Point of Control (POC) The price with the highest volume. The market's "fair value." Price above POC = bullish bias. Price below = bearish. Value Area (70%) The range where most trading occurred. Inside = balance. Outside = imbalance seeking new value. High Volume Nodes (HVN) Heavy volume zones. Expect slowdown or reversal. Positions were built here — traders defend them. Low Volume Nodes (LVN) Thin volume zones. Price rejected these levels. When price returns, expect fast movement. ADDING AVWAP Anchor VWAP to the last significant swing. This shows the average cost basis for everyone who entered during this move. Price above AVWAP = longs in profit, dips get bought Price below AVWAP = longs underwater, rallies get sold The confluence: POC + AVWAP alignment = high-probability zone POC + AVWAP divergence = expect reversion THE FRAMEWORK Identify POC, VAH, VAL Mark nearest HVN/LVN above and below Anchor AVWAP to the swing that started the current move Determine regime: price above or below AVWAP? Now you have: Structure (where will price react?) Bias (which direction is favored?) APPLYING THIS DAILY This is the framework I use every day in my market analysis. I publish a daily newsletter that applies Volume Profile, AVWAP, and regime analysis to real markets — with specific levels and scenarios for the session ahead. Happy trading!

$131.67 | 4H Chart Current State: - Price: $131 - AVWAP: ~$135 - POC: $125-$135 - Recent low: $118 Volume Profile: Heavy accumulation (yellow bars) at $125-$135. This is the Point of Control where the most trading occurred during the November-December consolidation. Thin volume above $135 up to $150 = Low resistance if we break out Thin volume below $118 = Air pocket if we break down The Setup: We're at a critical juncture: **Resistance:** - $135 - AVWAP (regime change level) - $150 - Previous support turned resistance - $165 - Major POC from October **Support:** - $125 - Bottom of current POC - $118 - Recent low, must hold - $110 - Next major support if $118 fails Trade Scenarios: **Breakout Play (Long):** IF: Close above $135 on 4H THEN: Enter $136-$138 Target: $150 Stop: $128 R:R = 2:1 **Breakdown Play (Short):** IF: Break below $125 with volume THEN: Enter short $123-$125 Target: $118, then $110 Stop: $132 R:R = 2:1 **Current Price ($131):** Dead zone. No edge. Wait for confirmation. Risk Management: Don't size up until we see directional conviction. Alts are volatile. A 10% bounce can turn into a 20% dump overnight. Use stops. Always. --- What's your SOL setup? 👇 #Solana #TradingSetup #Crypto

$89,974 | Perfect example of range-bound trading This chart shows what happens after a major rally. The Setup: BTC rallied from $60K to $108K in Q4 2025 (+80% in 3 months). Then it pulled back and has been consolidating between $84K-$94K for 2 months. This is textbook post-rally behavior. Reading The Volume Profile: The horizontal bars on the left show where volume traded. 🟨 Yellow bars = Heavy volume (POC at $87K-$90K) 🟦 Blue bars = Light volume (quick moves through these zones) The POC is where institutions are most committed. This becomes the "fair value" line. Right now we're sitting right at fair value ($89,974). Range Trading 101: In consolidation, you have three options: 1. **Trade the range:** - Buy support at $84K-$86K - Sell resistance at $93K-$95K - Scalp the oscillations 2. **Wait for breakout:** - Buy above $95K (bullish confirmation) - Short below $84K (bearish confirmation) - Only trade confirmed breaks 3. **Stay flat:** - No edge in the middle - Wait for better setup - Preserve capital Option 3 is underrated. The Lesson: Not every market condition is tradeable. Trending markets = Trade the trend Ranging markets = Trade the edges or wait Choppy markets = Stay out BTC is in a range. That means either trade the edges with discipline or wait for the break. Don't force trades in the middle just because you're bored. --- What's your range trading strategy? 👇 #Bitcoin #TradingEducation #RangeTrading

$89,974 | Perfect example of range-bound trading This chart shows what happens after a major rally. The Setup: BTC rallied from $60K to $108K in Q4 2025 (+80% in 3 months). Then it pulled back and has been consolidating between $84K-$94K for 2 months. This is textbook post-rally behavior. Reading The Volume Profile: The horizontal bars on the left show where volume traded. 🟨 Yellow bars = Heavy volume (POC at $87K-$90K) 🟦 Blue bars = Light volume (quick moves through these zones) The POC is where institutions are most committed. This becomes the "fair value" line. Right now we're sitting right at fair value ($89,974). Range Trading 101: In consolidation, you have three options: 1. **Trade the range:** - Buy support at $84K-$86K - Sell resistance at $93K-$95K - Scalp the oscillations 2. **Wait for breakout:** - Buy above $95K (bullish confirmation) - Short below $84K (bearish confirmation) - Only trade confirmed breaks 3. **Stay flat:** - No edge in the middle - Wait for better setup - Preserve capital Option 3 is underrated. The Lesson: Not every market condition is tradeable. Trending markets = Trade the trend Ranging markets = Trade the edges or wait Choppy markets = Stay out BTC is in a range. That means either trade the edges with discipline or wait for the break. Don't force trades in the middle just because you're bored. --- What's your range trading strategy? 👇 #Bitcoin #TradingEducation #RangeTrading

The 1H chart generated some good signals, although I only took the short setup and banked profits at the POC. I don’t usually trade off the 1H timeframe - this short was actually taken from the 4H chart, just happened to be at the same price level.

Amazon has been chopping sideways for three months. The Terminal shows why - and what to watch for direction. Current structure: ∙Range: 215-230, with price sitting right at the top of the volume shelf ∙POC: Heavy institutional activity in this 220-230 zone - that’s where the battle is ∙AVWAP: Curling flat, confirming the indecision ∙Sigma bands: Compressing - volatility squeeze building This is a “no trade” zone for swing traders. The range is tight, and you’re buying resistance or selling support. What changes the picture: ∙Bullish: Daily close above 235 with volume - targets 260 gap fill ∙Bearish: Lose 210 and the volume shelf gives way - 200 then 190 in play Until one of those triggers, AMZN is dead money. Patience over forcing. Full level breakdown and probability scenarios in today’s note - link in bio.