Technical analysis by Thecantillonreport about Symbol BTC on 1/6/2026

Regime: Conflicted HTF Bias: Bearish Position: Flat STRUCTURE Price reclaimed AVWAP (92,858). Now trading at 93,738, +0.95% above institutional cost basis. Saturday: Below AVWAP, bearish. Plan was short rallies. Monday: Above AVWAP. Picture changed — but HTF still bearish. When price and HTF conflict, we wait. KEY LEVELS +1σ → 100,073 (potential short zone if HTF stays bearish) Current → 93,738 AVWAP → 92,858 (just reclaimed) POC → 87,526 (fair value, support if regime fails) -1σ → 85,643 CVD READ Near zero. Mixed signals. Price pushing up without strong CVD confirmation. This looks like short covering, not fresh demand. Caution warranted. THE SETUP Two paths. Waiting for one to trigger. Short setup: Entry: +1σ zone (97-100k) Condition: HTF stays bearish, CVD diverges Stop: Above 101k Target: AVWAP, then POC Long setup: Entry: AVWAP retest (92,858) Condition: HTF flips bullish, AVWAP holds as support Stop: Below 91k Target: +1σ Until one triggers, flat. SCENARIOS Relief rally then fail: Price pushes to +1σ, exhausts, rolls over. Bearish HTF reasserts. Short opportunity. AVWAP holds: Price dips to AVWAP, bounces, HTF flips. Regime shift confirmed. Long opportunity. Failed reclaim: Price drops back below AVWAP. Bearish resumes. Short on the failure. BOTTOM LINE AVWAP reclaimed. That's notable. But one bullish day doesn't flip a bearish regime. HTF hasn't confirmed. Flat until clarity. Patience is the position. Full daily analysis with all positions on Substack. Link in bio.Rejected at Avwap. Would have been a great short but unfortunately did not. You win some you loose some. Still flat on BTC perp.