Low_Leverage_Matthew

The strategy seeks confirmation by entering the position if the price decisively breaks below a key support level associated with that double bottom formation.​ Profit is targeted by capturing a move to the next significant support level. A stop-loss is placed above the breakdown level.

Long BNB at 1,114, aligning with the 1,100–1,125 support zone.​ Add if price holds above 1,150, indicating strength toward the 1,200 pivot.​ Add again on sustained break/retest above 1,225–1,250.​ Take profits at 1350+

The setup fades a rebound into midrange supply beneath a declining moving‑average ribbon, leaning on mean‑reversion while the broader alt market stays capped under higher‑timeframe resistance.​​ Entry is taken only after an hourly rejection confirms failure at the midrange, avoiding premature fills during liquidity sweeps and stop‑runs.​​ Invalidation is deliberately loose to resist wicks, exiting only on a four‑hour close that reclaims the upper resistance band, with a fail‑safe beyond the supply and trend‑filter confluence.​​ Profit aims at the prior range floor as the base case, with the option to let it run for an extended leg if momentum breaks that floor or to trail on a trend‑flip signal.​​ Risk is modest and context‑aware, stepping aside if the altcoin index breaks through major resistance and signals a regime change that undermines short expectancy.​​

Thesis: short AAVE on a daily retest-and-failure of the 200‑day region, using that moving average as the regime filter and invalidation line.​​ Entry: wait for price to tag 255–259 and print a bearish rejection (wick and close back below) or a 4h lower high inside that band to trigger the short with precision.​​ Stop: place a hard stop on a daily close above 262–265, signaling acceptance back over the 200‑day and invalidating the setup per trend‑filter rules.​​ Sizing: risk no more than 0.5–1.0% of equity, sizing to the distance between entry in 255–259 and the 262–265 invalidation range to keep consistency across volatility regimes.​​ Targets: T1 at 236–240 to harvest initial momentum, T2 at 225, T3 at 211, and a stretch toward ~196 aligned with common 4h Fibonacci extension mapping of the downswing.​​ Management: on reaching T1, reduce 25–33% and move stop to break‑even or just above the most recent 4h lower high to protect gains while preserving downside participation.​​ Trailing: continue to trail above successive 4h lower highs or via a fast MA swing method as long as daily price remains beneath the 200‑day to stay aligned with the regime filter.​​ Confirmation cues: rising daily ADX and RSI below 50 favor continuation after rejection, improving the odds that rallies into the MA cluster fail rather than flip the regime.​ Invalidation protocol: two strong daily closes above 262–265 or clear basing above the 200‑day require full exit and reassessment to avoid fighting a potential trend reversal.​​ Relative edge: AAVE shows clearer overhead confluence and momentum context than the broad market, which still hovers nearer its own 200‑day, offering better asymmetry for selling strength here.​​

This 4‑hour short fades a stop‑run into the former support that flipped to resistance. The plan is to sell a liquidity sweep into 3.22–3.65, where resting offers and recent breakdown supply cluster, then ride the move back into the local demand pocket. Invalidity is a clean hold above the swept highs, which would signal acceptance back inside the prior range and risk a squeeze toward the next MA cluster, so the stop should live just above the top of that 3.22–3.65 box. Take profits scale out into 3.06 first and then 2.78, aligning with the retrace to the breakdown shelf and the 1.618 extension area, where bounces are common on first touch. The idea is momentum‑conservative: only execute on a rejection wick and close back below the zone, not on a blind limit fill, so the trade starts with confirmation rather than hope.​

Aptos is an inflationnary token (7% new supply a year) with declining TVL. I shorted APT on the 1‑hour around 3.15–3.17 because price is still under my 3.26 resistance shelf on the chart. I My first take‑profit is 3.04 to pay myself and then I move the stop to breakeven to protect the trade. If momentum continues, I aim for the 1.618 extension near 2.79 as TP2 and the 2.618 extension near 2.52 as TP3, with my overall target zone marked from 3.04 down to 2.45. The setup is invalidated if a 1‑hour candle closes back above 3.258. ​

Entry now: 3.94, with optional scale‑in on a pop that stalls around 4.04–4.10.​ Primary targets: 3.72, then 3.55, then 3.35; take partials at each step.​ Hourly setup (loose): stop above 4.28 or Entry + 2×ATR(1h); trail by ~1×ATR after first target.​ 4‑hour setup (loose): stop above 4.45 or Entry + 2.5×ATR(4h); add only if a bounce into 4.28–4.45 rejects.​ Daily setup (loose): stop above 4.45 or Entry + 3×ATR(1d); bias remains bearish while short MA stays beneath long MA.​ Weekly context: use very small size; catastrophic stop above the long MA region near 6.44–6.60 if holding for weeks.​ Invalidation cue: sustained daily close back above ~4.28 weakens the short thesis; reduce or exit.​ Risk control: risk 1–2% per trade and size via position‑sizing formula based on distance to stop for capital protection.​

This setup shorts the failure at the channel midline and 41–42 supply, aiming for a quick move back into the lower half of the daily channel with first take‑profit near 37.8 where prior demand and fib confluence sit. Execution is simple: sell into a fresh rejection below 41–42, I use a hard stop around 43.1 just above the recent swing and channel cap, and let the trade work toward 37.8 with the option to trail if momentum accelerates lower. If price closes back above 43.1, the idea is invalid and the short is closed without debate

The trade thesis is to go long (buy) HYPEUSDT near the current price around $45.4, as the price holds above support within an established upward channel and at key Fibonacci retracement levels. Take profit is set at $85, which aligns with a major Fibonacci extension (around 4.236) and the upper boundary of the channel, aiming for a strong upside move if the trend continues. Stop loss is strictly placed at $41.08, just below the lower trendline and beneath important Fibonacci retracement support, to limit risk if momentum fails. The trading plan benefits from confluence between the Fibonacci retracement/support zones and the channel structure, making it a technically robust setup with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

SOL is consolidating in a broad range between roughly $160 and $218. The strategy is to buy on a decisive breakout above $218 with strong volume confirmation, aiming for continuation toward higher targets. Failure to break out could trigger a retest of lower support levels in the $160 region.