Technical analysis by Low_Leverage_Matthew about Symbol AAVE: Sell recommendation (10/19/2025)

Thesis: short AAVE on a daily retest-and-failure of the 200‑day region, using that moving average as the regime filter and invalidation line.​​ Entry: wait for price to tag 255–259 and print a bearish rejection (wick and close back below) or a 4h lower high inside that band to trigger the short with precision.​​ Stop: place a hard stop on a daily close above 262–265, signaling acceptance back over the 200‑day and invalidating the setup per trend‑filter rules.​​ Sizing: risk no more than 0.5–1.0% of equity, sizing to the distance between entry in 255–259 and the 262–265 invalidation range to keep consistency across volatility regimes.​​ Targets: T1 at 236–240 to harvest initial momentum, T2 at 225, T3 at 211, and a stretch toward ~196 aligned with common 4h Fibonacci extension mapping of the downswing.​​ Management: on reaching T1, reduce 25–33% and move stop to break‑even or just above the most recent 4h lower high to protect gains while preserving downside participation.​​ Trailing: continue to trail above successive 4h lower highs or via a fast MA swing method as long as daily price remains beneath the 200‑day to stay aligned with the regime filter.​​ Confirmation cues: rising daily ADX and RSI below 50 favor continuation after rejection, improving the odds that rallies into the MA cluster fail rather than flip the regime.​ Invalidation protocol: two strong daily closes above 262–265 or clear basing above the 200‑day require full exit and reassessment to avoid fighting a potential trend reversal.​​ Relative edge: AAVE shows clearer overhead confluence and momentum context than the broad market, which still hovers nearer its own 200‑day, offering better asymmetry for selling strength here.​​