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If my wave forecast is correct and BTC trades down toward $23K (ie. 80% log retracement level of the 2023-2025 bull run), MicroStrategy (Strategy) becomes balance sheet insolvent: liabilities (convertible debt + preferreds like STRK/STRF/STRD/STRC) would exceed assets. That doesn’t mean automatic bankruptcy. Their convertibles only cost ~$35M/yr in interest, and even with ~$550–$680M/yr on ~$6.43B at 8–10% in preferred dividends layered on top, they can still cover fixed obligations short-term by liquidating BTC or issuing more equity. That keeps them out of Chapter 11 in the near term. But the trade-off is ugly: Massive dilution from issuing stock at distressed prices, or Selling BTC at $23K just to stay afloat. The real problem is the refinancing wall starting late 2027. With equity wiped on paper and ~$1.1B coming due by early 2028, any refinancing deal will be extremely punitive, handing creditors cheap equity or forcing fire-sale BTC disposals. Market pricing implication: Equity = option value only. Common stock would likely collapse into deeply distressed single digits (<$10), well below NAV, because shareholders sit behind $8.2B in converts and $6.4B+ in high-yield preferreds. So even if BTC really does retrace all the way to $23k, MSTR doesn’t go to $0 right away, but the stock trades like a distressed, over-leveraged call option on Bitcoin, with survival depending entirely on a rebound before maturities hit. BTC Forecast:

BTC has formed into a double zigzag from the low in 2023 until now. This is the same count that my friend Glenn Neely (the founder of Neowave) is following. At this point there aren't really any other counts that appear to make sense. Especially considering the terminal impulse that wave-c has formed (see Daily chart). We've already begun breaking down from the rising wedge pattern, which is a strong indication that wave-c has concluded. Beyond just Elliott Wave/Neowave considerations, this has also formed long-term momentum divergences on the AO, and a clear weekly wiseman right at the end of wave-5 of c, perfectly aligned with the 0.5(a+b) time target for wave-c. This perfect confluence of signals here is a very strong signal the market has topped out long-term, and could retrace all the way back to ~$23k in the worst case scenario. Other potential retracement levels are labeled on the chart. If this does end up breaking $125k, then it may be a good idea to flip bullish as the bull cycle could continue for an unknown amount of time after that. For now, probabilities are starting to stack up indicating that the top is in and a big retracement is coming.From a William's perspective, I see this long-term set up as exceedingly bearish: 2D and 3D charts have closed under the gator. Both charts have all three wisemen. Both charts have created multi-peaks and have crossed or are approaching the zero line on the AO. 1W and 1M both have first wisemen (1M closes in 2 days). Virtually all charts have twin or multi-peaks, long-term divergences, and are beginning to turn red on the AO. This all aligns perfectly with the Wave theory price/time/structure targets which indicate that we've already hit the top. We've also retraced wave-5 of c faster than it was formed, broken down clearly from the rising wedge pattern, and even retested the bottom trendline before heading lower. (see daily rising wedge chart) The only bullish thing to note on these charts is the 1D first wisemen, but this signal is fairly weak given the rest of the set up. On the flip side, in the less likely scenario where this does break up above $125k and reverse the long-term wisemen and other signals, it would be a strong buy signal. However, that alternative scenario seems much less likely at this point, so unless it does break $125k, it's best to remain bearish based on Neowave theory and William's indicators.

I will no longer be posting to Tradingview because of their new rules which they've retroactively applied to my previous posts. The new rule is that you cannot use "private indicators." Even though my indicators are just slightly tweaked indicators that are fully public (only changed to scale them logarithmically and nothing else), they've still retroactively removed almost half of my charts for whatever asinine reason. I cannot even make these indicators public because the developer who published them originally has unfortunately passed away. Unless they fix this I will no longer be posting here. Really sad to see after posting here for almost 12 years.

Based on the time similarity here, TRX has formed into a potential bullish diametric pattern. The breakout from this sleeping gator range should indicate the next trend. Momentum and wave structure is favoring upside from here, but a break down from the range could quickly change that. Above the green horizonal line is an early bullish confirmation, and below the red horizonal line is an early bearish confirmation.There's not really much clarity here with wave structure, and either of these counts could be right (but good chance that both are actually wrong). The most important signal here is to wait and see which direction we break from this range before taking a position.This has broken the first daily fractal above the sleeping gator, so there's a good chance we are beginning a new uptrend now.Based on this short-term zigzag, and the fact that a pullback tends to happen right after a confirmation, we'll likely see a dip back towards the 0.243-0.239 range. Assuming support continues to hold, that is likely going to be a better re-entry point.

The last few weeks on BTC have formed a huge whipsaw pattern, constantly faking out in each direction. This is common for an expanding triangle pattern, and this current triangle also has very good time relations (and lack of fibonacci price relations). Wave-e also broke beyond the a-c trendline as is standard for expanding triangles.Last week I said that we'd get one final run up to the highs and BTC would double top while some alts made new all time highs. This is exactly what has happened, and based on this expanding pattern, as well as the longer-term chart that I published in December, I believe the top is in for the rest of the year.The next move down should be extremely large and violent, probably ending somewhere around 30k towards the middle of this year. The b-wave recovery after that will likely be slow and followed by another c-wave before we finally end this major correction sometime in 2026.Shorting BTC September 2025 futures on OKX with $9,000 in premium seems like the best long-term play for this setup, because they are currently trading at 109k and the premium will eventually go to 0 as this collapse begins to accelerate.Funny enough, this did end up squeezing out the very last little bit of my price/time target, and reversed perfectly on my time target, and stopped right under my upper price target. Despite very briefly breaking ATH, I believe that we're still headed much lower from here. This was just the final part of the whipsaw pattern.Looks like wave-e of the expanding triangle formed a 2nd x-wave and a contracting triangle as the final phase of a triple combination, adding to the whipsaw even more. If this were to breakout and make a new all time high, then the chances that this can continue up are high. But for now odds seem to favor the downside from here.Based on the size of the retracement off of today's drop, there's a good chance that this continues to make at least one more new high. Support seems relatively strong here, especially considering the long-term break out of the weekly and monthly wisemen. Next move up should go at least to $120-130k by February.Based on the recent choppiness of the market I am very cautious trading this one in either direction until things start to clear up more. Downside still seems very likely but I am happy to stay out of this market until things start to clear up. If I see a clear trade set up, I will publish a new chart. The slightly bullish forecast from above is not a trade, and even if it did get another small wave up it's likely not going to go very far and will probably be completely retraced.

XRP is one of the few cryptos that still looks pretty bullish. After reversing the daily wiseman signal from Jan 4th, and with the gator open to the upside, the chances of the uptrend continuing from here are relatively high.Upside targets will probably relate to the first wave up by a fibonacci ratio, putting XRP at least at $4.50 and as high as $7.00 by February.ATH 🎉Starting to see some weakness here, it might be early to close but I made 1500% trading this on 50x leverage so I am happy with that, and the risks to the downside are significant from here. The long-term bearishness on BTC (check my December chart), and the sentiment has spooked me out of this trade.

ETH has created a perfect zigzag pattern, with a triangle for wave-B. Since wave-B is a limiting contracting triangle, wave-C should relate to wave-a of B by 100% in price, and end around the apex of the triangle timewise. Both of these requirements have been perfectly fulfilled, and the standard time target of (a+b)/2=c is also satisfied.On top of this wave pattern, we also have the first wiseman forming on the 4hr, as well as momentum divergences on multiple shorter-term charts. At the higher timeframes, ETH and BTC have both hit long-term fibonacci targets, time targets, monthly/weekly/daily wisemen, and momentum divergences. All of these long-term and short-term signals and wave patterns are indicating a potential long-term top, and at the least a significant pull back to new lows.The 4hr wisemen on ETH gives us a good way to minimize our risk on this trade by putting our stops at today's highs. From here, we should quickly retrace all of wave-C faster than it was formed to get confirmation that the zigzag is over. After we have confirmation, we can be very confident that we are heading to new lows and will probably end this wave somewhere around $3,090 to $2,770This one ran our stops and reversed us into a long, so for now I will assume that the uptrend will continueA new 4hr wisemen formed and the zigzag is still valid, so this is likely a good place to re-enter shortsWe've broken down from the channel and almost completely retraced wave-c much faster than it was formed. This is a strong confirmation we will head lower towards new lows as forecasted a couple days ago. Likely target is around $2,830 within the next 2 weeks, with the potential to go lower to around $2,380 (btw this new tradingview platform update is trash and only allows you to update trades once, so for now I will just use notes instead of trade updates)Good time to start scaling out of these shorts. It seems like ETH will make a retest of the highs one more time. Most likely we won't be able to bust through the highs here and it will double top, followed by a much larger crash. For now, it is probably time to start looking for longs to catch this final run up.

Bitcoin is currently exhibiting several long-term top signals, some of which stretch all the way back to 2019. Those include:Wave-D = (C+B)/2 in Time [Perfect Ratio]Wave-D = 0.618(B) in Price [Perfect Ratio]Waves a, b, c, f, and g are all time-similar forming a perfect diametricFirst Wiseman signals on Weekly, Monthly chartsAll three wisemen on Daily chartsHUGE long-term momentum divergences on all long-term chartsManic market sentiment following Trump's promises and 100k prices (which he may not keep)I believe a deep, long-term bear market is highly likely from this point. It also appears that the stock market could be falling into a bear market as well. The invalidation for this forecast will be for BTC to make new all time highs. If we can reverse the wisemen signals and long-term time/price targets that have formed that would be extremely bullish, but at the moment that is seeming less and less likely. For now the probabilities are favoring major downside in crypto, stocks, and real estate.There's also other possible targets. While 32k in 2 years is close to the worst case scenario, a drop lasting only a few months and forming a smaller x-wave or something else is also possible. It will depend ultimately how this develops. To confirm a long-term bear market we should hit around 62k by end of Q1. If it takes longer than that, it's possible the bear market won't be as big. Right now, the important thing is that the market is at a clear fork in the road. If it can't push new all time highs then the signals clearly say that we are headed down from here based on the momentum, price action, sentiment and wave counts. How far down exactly can be determined in the future when there's more information.

TRX has created several simultaneous buy signals here. First we have the perfect bat harmonic, then we have wisemen on multiple timeframes, in a grey zone on the 4hr, perfect double bottom breaking all lows expect the final low, short-term momentum divergences, and a solid diametric count with at least 5 of 7 waves being time similar. All of these signs are pointing to a bottom forming right now, meaning the lows should not be violated and TRX will go to all time highs from here. If we do make new lows it is probably a good idea to stop and reverse, and look for a new potential bottom. For now, all signs are pointing up, especially the longer-term count which has us beginning a supercycle this quarter.The stop and reverse turned out to be profitable, now with this bounce back it seems there is another good chance we have bottomed.This count is probably more likely at this point, while the original diametric is possible, unless we retrace all of wave-g faster than it was formed then we will probably end up forming a complex correction that could end next week, with some more downside possible in the meantime, depending on how low wave-c can go.Based on longer term charts, especially on BTC and the S&P, and also considering the failure of the original buy signals on TRX, a sharper, larger decline is starting to appear much more likely now.

Based on wave theory, the new supercycle should begin with a wave that is similar in strength and size to the end of the last supercycle, which happened in 2018. The yellow bars overlayed on the chart are a copy of the daily bars from the move on TRX at the end of the supercycle in 2018.If TRON continues to follow a similar pattern, then it would run towards $29 by the first week of January. I will publish this chart now so we can track its progress, because now it seems like we've finally had a move up that was strong enough to confirm the bear supercycle has ended on TRX.This will also just be the first move up for TRX, and after a correction it should be followed by a move which takes it even higher than $29 later in 2025.