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Gold Outlook Ahead of FOMC: Dovish Fed Could Push Prices Higher As the market eyes tonight’s FOMC decision, volatility in Gold (XAU/USD) is expected to spike. Traders are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, from 4.00% to 3.75%, making the Fed’s tone a key determinant for the USD and Gold direction. 1️⃣ Fundamental Outlook Rate Cut / Dovish Tone: Likely to weaken the USD, supporting a bullish move in Gold. No Cut / Hawkish Tone: Strengthens USD, which may trigger a Gold correction. Recent data shows softer inflation and slowing job growth, tipping the scales toward a dovish outcome. This aligns with a short-term bullish bias for Gold. 2️⃣ Technical Overview (H1–H4) Gold is currently in a descending channel—a short-term correction within a larger bullish structure. Key levels to watch: TypePriceComment Resistance$4,078–$4,100Channel top & supply zone Intraday Resistance$4,050Potential liquidity grab area Support$3,947Intraday demand zone Major Support$3,874–$3,878Monthly SMC demand block Liquidity Zone$4,005Equal highs area pre-FOMC The monthly support at $3,874–$3,878 has been strongly defended, indicating institutional buying interest. 3️⃣ Price Action & SMC Bias From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective: A sweep below $3,880 created a strong reversal block, signaling accumulation by institutions. The market is now in a reaccumulation phase, targeting premium levels for liquidity grabs before the FOMC. Order Blocks to Watch: Bullish OB: $3,875–$3,900 Bearish OB: $4,078–$4,100 Price may test above $4,050 to collect stop orders, then react sharply based on the FOMC outcome. 4️⃣ Trading Plan (Scenario-Based) 🟢 Bullish Case (Rate Cut / Dovish Fed): Entry: Break & close above $4,050 SL: Below $4,020 TP1: $4,078 | TP2: $4,135 | TP3: $4,249 SMC View: Break above channel → imbalance fill toward $4,135–$4,250 🔴 Bearish Case (No Cut / Hawkish Fed): Entry: Rejection from $4,050–$4,078 zone SL: Above $4,110 TP1: $3,947 | TP2: $3,874 | TP3: $3,820 SMC View: Premium zone manipulation → continuation of bearish channel correction 5️⃣ Strategic Summary BiasSetupAction Short-termBullish if rate cut confirmedWait for breakout above $4,050 Medium-termConsolidation until FOMC volatility clearsTrade reaction, not anticipation Long-termStill bullish as long as $3,874 holdsPotential expansion toward $4,249+ in November Conclusion: Gold traders should monitor the $4,050 breakout zone for clues. A dovish Fed could propel Gold toward $4,249, while a hawkish surprise may see it revisit $3,874. Reacting to price action post-FOMC is key—anticipation could be risky.

Gold is trading near $4,100, and the market is now showing signs of a possible turning point. After months of steady gains, price has entered a correction phase, but the overall long-term trend remains bullish. In this article, we’ll look at gold’s current structure, key supply and demand zones, and what Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Price Action are telling us about possible future moves. Market Structure Overview On the daily and weekly charts, gold still maintains a bullish structure, though price is now testing a critical demand zone between $4,050 and $4,100. This zone has acted as a base for buyers in the past, and many institutional traders may look to accumulate new long positions here. The previous swing high sits around $4,350–$4,400, where liquidity likely remains from retail traders’ stop orders. If the larger uptrend is to continue, the market may attempt to revisit or even break above that region in the coming weeks. Smart Money Concepts Breakdown Smart Money traders analyze liquidity, order blocks, and changes in market character to identify where big players are active. Liquidity Sweep: Recently, gold swept liquidity below $4,100 by taking out stops from earlier long positions. This often happens before larger players start buying. Change of Character (CHoCH): A bullish signal will appear if gold closes strongly above $4,150 on the H4 chart. That would mark a structural shift from bearish correction to bullish continuation. Fair Value Gap (FVG): There’s an imbalance between $4,150 and $4,180. If buyers regain control, price may move toward this zone as a short-term target. Order Block: The main bullish order block sits between $4,050 and $4,100 on the daily chart—an area where institutional buying likely occurs. Supply Zones: On the H4 timeframe, supply lies around $4,250–$4,300 and on the daily chart around $4,350–$4,400. These zones can act as profit-taking points for longs or entry zones for potential shorts. Long (Buy) Scenario If gold holds the $4,050–$4,100 support area and breaks above $4,150, it would confirm a bullish change of character. Traders can then look for a pullback toward $4,120–$4,130 to enter long positions. A stop-loss should be placed below $4,040, under the daily order block, to protect against false breakouts. The profit targets for this move could be: TP1 → $4,180 (to fill the FVG) TP2 → $4,250 (H4 supply) TP3 → $4,350–$4,400 (daily supply zone) This setup offers a risk-to-reward ratio of around 1:3 to 1:5 if executed correctly. Short (Sell) Scenario If the bullish setup fails and price rallies toward $4,250–$4,300 but shows strong rejection, this could create a short opportunity from the supply zone. In that case, traders can enter short positions with a stop-loss above $4,330. The profit targets for the short trade would be: TP1 → $4,150 (minor liquidity zone) TP2 → $4,080 TP3 → $4,000 (major psychological level) This would represent a bearish continuation pattern based on rejection from institutional supply. Short-Term Outlook (1–3 Days) In the next few days, gold is likely to retest the $4,150–$4,180 zone. If price rejects from that level, short-term bearish pressure could return, pulling gold back to $4,050. If it breaks and retests the zone successfully, bullish momentum might build again, aiming for $4,250 and above. Long-Term Outlook (1–3 Weeks) The $4,050–$4,000 level is now the key area to watch. If gold remains above it, we can expect accumulation and eventually a rally back toward $4,350–$4,500. However, a daily close below $4,000 would signal a structural shift toward the downside, opening the path to $3,900–$3,850, which is the next weekly demand zone. Summary Table DirectionEntryStop LossTargetsCondition Buy (Swing)4,100–4,1204,0404,180 / 4,250 / 4,350Bullish CHoCH above 4,150 Sell (Retest)4,250–4,3004,3304,150 / 4,080 / 4,000Rejection from supply, bearish BOS Final Thoughts Gold is now sitting in a make-or-break zone. The $4,100 region could become the foundation for the next bullish leg—or the point where sellers take full control. Traders should stay patient, wait for a clear CHoCH confirmation, and manage risk carefully. As always, the market rewards patience and discipline. Following Smart Money Concepts and price action together can help traders align with institutional flow instead of chasing moves blindly. — Md Golam Rabbani

Technical Analysis (1H Chart) Structure: Gold remains in a strong ascending channel, with price consistently respecting both the upper and lower trendlines. The lower black trendline (marked by blue arrows) has acted as a dynamic support multiple times. The upper black line is serving as a trendline resistance, with potential rejection zones near $4,550–$4,560. Current Pattern: Inside the main channel, a smaller parallel structure (rising wedge/inner channel) is forming — showing potential accumulation or continuation within the trend. This usually precedes a breakout move toward the upper zone of the larger channel. Key Levels: Support: $4,200 – $4,220 (Major support zone)** Current Support Zone: Around $4,250 (near trendline confluence and previous rejections) Resistance: $4,455 – $4,560 (target zone / channel top)** Technical Bias: ✅ Bullish above $4,200 support ❌ Bearish breakdown below $4,200 may open room to $4,100–$4,050 💹 Price Action View Triple rejection from the midline shows short-term liquidity grabs before continuation. Each rejection was followed by higher lows, showing buyers’ defense (sign of demand zone creation). The blue arrows represent areas where price tapped liquidity and rebalanced inefficiencies — typical of smart money retracements before continuation. Next expected move: Price may: Tap once more near $4,250 (liquidity sweep of recent lows) Then rally toward $4,450–$4,550 🧭 SMC (Smart Money Concept) Liquidity & Demand Zones: Liquidity below $4,250 (equal lows) Demand Zone: $4,200–$4,240 → ideal institutional entry Imbalance/FVG: Between $4,300–$4,360, which price may fill before next push Market Structure: Higher Highs & Higher Lows intact (bullish structure) Internal BOS (Break of Structure) on minor pullbacks confirms healthy trend Expectation: Re accumulation phase → move to premium zone (above $4,500) SMC Setup Idea: Wait for liquidity sweep at $4,250 Entry: On bullish BOS on lower TF (M15–M30) TP1: $4,400 TP2: $4,550 SL: Below $4,200

🟡 Gold’s 9-Month Rally Nears the Top Channel — What Dow Theory Tells Us Gold (XAU/USD) has been on a strong run for the past nine months, climbing from around $3,200 to above $4,230. This impressive move has caught global attention, but the chart now shows gold reaching the top of its long-term rising channel — a sign that the market could be losing steam. Let’s break this down using Dow Theory, one of the oldest and most reliable ways to understand market trends. 🔹 1️⃣ The Main Trend – Still Up According to Dow Theory, markets move in large “primary trends” that can last for months or years. Gold’s main trend has been strongly bullish, with clear higher highs and higher lows. This rise has been supported by: Expectations of more U.S. interest rate cuts, Geopolitical tensions, and Ongoing central bank gold buying. All of these have kept investors confident in gold. 🔹 2️⃣ The Three Phases of a Bull Market Dow Theory says every uptrend has three phases — and gold has followed this pattern very clearly: PhaseMarket BehaviorGold’s Example Accumulation PhaseSmart money buys quietly after a downtrend.Started in early 2024 when institutions and banks added gold at low prices. Public Participation PhaseThe trend becomes visible; the public joins in.Most of 2025 saw this phase, with strong rallies and big breakouts. Distribution PhaseLate buyers rush in, while professionals start taking profit.Now, around $4,250–$4,400, gold seems to be entering this stage. At this point, the market is still bullish, but momentum looks overstretched. 🔹 3️⃣ Market Confirmation Dow Theory also says that a trend is stronger when other related markets move in the same direction. Currently, that’s happening: Silver is also rallying, The U.S. dollar (DXY) is weaker, and Bond yields are falling, which helps gold. These signals confirm gold’s main uptrend is still valid — but it won’t last forever. 🔹 4️⃣ Possible Distribution Near $4,250–$4,400 The upper channel area around $4,250–$4,400 could act as a distribution zone, where big traders start selling and prices begin to slow down. Traders should watch for these warning signs: Prices rising but volume dropping, Doji or reversal candles on the weekly chart, Price failing to make new highs after reaching resistance. If this happens, gold could pull back to $3,850–$3,950 before continuing its long-term uptrend. 🔹 5️⃣ Summary — What Dow Theory Says Now Key PointGold’s Status TrendPrimary uptrend (still valid) PhaseShifting from Public Participation → Distribution ConfirmationSupported by silver, USD, and bond market moves Distribution Zone$4,250 – $4,400 Correction Target$3,850 – $3,950 Big PictureBullish long-term, but near-term caution needed 🔸 Final Thoughts From a Dow Theory view, gold’s 9-month rally looks mature. The market has moved fast and far, suggesting it may be nearing a short-term top. This doesn’t mean the trend is over — but it could enter a cooling-off period before the next big move. Smart traders at this stage: Take partial profits, Tighten stop losses, and Watch for early reversal signals. “A trend remains in effect until it gives a clear sign that it has reversed.” — Dow Theory Gold hasn’t shown a reversal yet… but the signs of early distribution are starting to appear.

GOLD (XAUUSD) – Technical & Fundamental Outlook Technical View: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, trading within a rising channel. Currently testing the trendline supply zone around 4218–4223, where some short-term resistance is expected. A correction toward 3950 support could occur before the next bullish move. If price holds above 3950, the next potential target remains near 4500. Key Levels: Resistance: 4218 – 4223 Support: 3950 Fundamental View: The outlook stays bullish supported by: Fed’s dovish tone and potential rate cuts. Central bank demand for gold. Geopolitical uncertainties boosting safe-haven flows. Short-term volatility may appear as traders take profits near recent highs, but the broader trend remains positive. 📉 Short-term: Possible pullback to 3950 📈 Medium-term: Bullish continuation toward 4500 This is not financial advice.

Gold is moving inside an uptrend channel and now facing a major resistance zone at 3840–3850. This is the decision point – will it reject or break out? 🔹 Bearish Setup (if rejection at 3840–3850): Entry: 3840–3850 SL: 3870 TP1: 3780 TP2: 3720 🔹 Bullish Setup (if breakout holds above 3850): Entry: After retest above 3850 SL: 3820 TP1: 3900 TP2: 3925 📌 Chart shows price testing resistance with possible pullback path (blue arrows) vs breakout path. ⚠️ This is educational analysis only, not financial advice.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading inside a strong upward channel, reaching the $3,720–$3,820 area. Technically, this zone is marked as an exhaustion area, meaning price may face heavy resistance and possible reversal signals. Technical Outlook The chart shows gold has been respecting the rising channel. Above $3,720, sellers may become active, making it harder for price to push higher. Nearest strong support lies at $3,740. If price holds this level, buyers may attempt another rally. Major resistance is now at $3,800 and $3,820. A breakout above $3,820 could extend the bullish move further. If gold fails to hold above $3,740–$3,720, a deeper correction toward $3,650–$3,620 may follow. Traders should also watch for a false breakout at the channel top. Fundamental Factors Central bank policies remain key. Expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 may continue to support gold. Rising geopolitical risks and concerns about global growth also fuel safe-haven demand. However, stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data could lift the dollar, pressuring gold.

Gold (XAUUSD) Outlook Technical: Rising wedge on H4 → bearish risk. Resistance: 3740–3800. Support: 3660 / 3580. Likely: Push to 3740–3800, then possible drop toward 3580. Fundamental: Weak USD, lower yields, dovish Fed = bullish gold. Strong USD, higher yields, hawkish Fed = bearish gold. Geopolitical tensions = safe-haven demand.

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding above key support at $3,625, with bullish rejection candles signaling buyer strength. A break above $3,675 could open the path toward the $3,700 target. On the fundamental side, markets await this week’s U.S. CPI data and Fed rate decision. Softer inflation or a dovish Fed tone may weaken the dollar, boosting gold further. Bias: Bullish above $3,625 → Targets: $3,675 / $3,700.

Technical View (Not Financial Advice): Gold is trading inside a rising channel, holding above $3,550 support. If momentum continues, price may test $3,800–$3,900. A break below $3,550 could trigger a correction toward $3,400. Fundamental View: Safe-haven demand, global inflation risks, and central bank policies keep gold supported. However, stronger U.S. dollar and bond yields may limit upside.