Technical analysis by FXNEWSCLUB about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (10/29/2025)

Gold Outlook Ahead of FOMC: Dovish Fed Could Push Prices Higher As the market eyes tonight’s FOMC decision, volatility in Gold (XAU/USD) is expected to spike. Traders are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, from 4.00% to 3.75%, making the Fed’s tone a key determinant for the USD and Gold direction. 1️⃣ Fundamental Outlook Rate Cut / Dovish Tone: Likely to weaken the USD, supporting a bullish move in Gold. No Cut / Hawkish Tone: Strengthens USD, which may trigger a Gold correction. Recent data shows softer inflation and slowing job growth, tipping the scales toward a dovish outcome. This aligns with a short-term bullish bias for Gold. 2️⃣ Technical Overview (H1–H4) Gold is currently in a descending channel—a short-term correction within a larger bullish structure. Key levels to watch: TypePriceComment Resistance$4,078–$4,100Channel top & supply zone Intraday Resistance$4,050Potential liquidity grab area Support$3,947Intraday demand zone Major Support$3,874–$3,878Monthly SMC demand block Liquidity Zone$4,005Equal highs area pre-FOMC The monthly support at $3,874–$3,878 has been strongly defended, indicating institutional buying interest. 3️⃣ Price Action & SMC Bias From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective: A sweep below $3,880 created a strong reversal block, signaling accumulation by institutions. The market is now in a reaccumulation phase, targeting premium levels for liquidity grabs before the FOMC. Order Blocks to Watch: Bullish OB: $3,875–$3,900 Bearish OB: $4,078–$4,100 Price may test above $4,050 to collect stop orders, then react sharply based on the FOMC outcome. 4️⃣ Trading Plan (Scenario-Based) 🟢 Bullish Case (Rate Cut / Dovish Fed): Entry: Break & close above $4,050 SL: Below $4,020 TP1: $4,078 | TP2: $4,135 | TP3: $4,249 SMC View: Break above channel → imbalance fill toward $4,135–$4,250 🔴 Bearish Case (No Cut / Hawkish Fed): Entry: Rejection from $4,050–$4,078 zone SL: Above $4,110 TP1: $3,947 | TP2: $3,874 | TP3: $3,820 SMC View: Premium zone manipulation → continuation of bearish channel correction 5️⃣ Strategic Summary BiasSetupAction Short-termBullish if rate cut confirmedWait for breakout above $4,050 Medium-termConsolidation until FOMC volatility clearsTrade reaction, not anticipation Long-termStill bullish as long as $3,874 holdsPotential expansion toward $4,249+ in November Conclusion: Gold traders should monitor the $4,050 breakout zone for clues. A dovish Fed could propel Gold toward $4,249, while a hawkish surprise may see it revisit $3,874. Reacting to price action post-FOMC is key—anticipation could be risky.