EXCAVO

MSCI May Exclude Crypto-Heavy Companies: What It Means for MicroStrategy and the Market MSCI recently published a proposal that could dramatically reshape how global indices treat companies with large crypto exposure. According to the framework, companies holding more than 50% of their market capitalization in digital assets may be excluded from national and international indices. This sounds technical - but the consequences are huge. What This Means in Practice If the rule is implemented, companies like MicroStrategy, Bitfarms, Marathon, Hut8, Coinbase, or any firm holding a large percentage of crypto on their balance sheet, may: be excluded from major indices, lose exposure to institutional investors, be off-limits for pension funds, insurers and conservative hedge funds, face reduced liquidity and forced selling. This is not a small development. This is a structural shift. 🧩 Why MicroStrategy Is the Most Exposed MicroStrategy’s business model has been extremely straightforward: issue new shares raise debt (including convertible notes) use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin rising BTC → rising MSTR rising MSTR → more borrowing capacity A perpetual loop. But if MSTR gets excluded from key indices, the loop breaks: passive funds must sell institutional investors face compliance risk liquidity dries up volatility increases borrowing costs rise And remember: MicroStrategy currently trades below the fair value of its Bitcoin holdings. A forced outflow amplifies the structural imbalance. ⚠️ Why Institutions Bought MicroStrategy Instead of Bitcoin Many funds legally cannot buy Bitcoin. They also cannot buy high-risk crypto exchange stocks like Coinbase. But they can buy: reputable corporate debt convertible notes equity from a listed U.S. corporation Michael Saylor gave them a regulatory loophole: “Want Bitcoin exposure? Buy my convertible debt. If BTC rises, convert the notes into shares.” This workaround is now cracking. Convertible Debt Holders Are in a Tough Spot If MSTR is excluded from indices: index funds sell → share price drops falling price → convertible notes lose value institutions holding the debt face losses the balance sheet risk increases This is why regulatory decisions matter so much. Insider Selling: VP of Bitcoin at MicroStrategy Sells ~$19.7M Worth of Stock The timing is… interesting. Started selling on September 18 Sold options-based shares in multiple lots Continued selling until November 14 Total realized profit: ~$19.69M Selling into regulatory uncertainty is not random behavior. It’s a signal. Key Takeaways 1. MSCI’s proposal changes the rules: companies with >50% crypto exposure may become “non-indexable”. 2. MicroStrategy’s core model—borrowing to buy BTC—depends on institutional inflows. Index exclusion disrupts it. 3. Convertible note investors may face severe pressure. 4. Insider selling suggests internal awareness of structural risk. 5. If MSTR is removed from indices, forced selling could create significant downside pressure. 📉 Conclusion MicroStrategy has long been a “Bitcoin ETF before ETFs existed”. Institutions bought MSTR because they couldn’t buy BTC directly. But now: Bitcoin ETFs exist, regulations are tightening, index providers are updating risk frameworks. MicroStrategy may become a victim of its own success strategy. Best regards EXCAVO

Greetings, everyone. Today, I don't want to talk about the news. I want to talk about what truly matters: market structure. Many traders are currently looking for a news event to explain the current lull and predict Bitcoin's next move. They are looking in the wrong direction. Remember this: the news is not the cause of a move. It's just a convenient explanation handed to you after the move has already happened. For me, the chart is primary. And right now, it's telling a story that most people are not going to like. The Global Picture: An Economy of Bubbles and Boiling Water We live in an era of bubbles. We had the dot-coms, the tulip mania, and now we are witnessing the AI bubble. Yes, AI is a game-changer, and I am actively integrating it into all my processes - it would be foolish to deny this trend. But that doesn't change the fact that the markets are overheated. The entire global economy right now feels like water heated to 80 degrees Celsius. It’s not boiling yet, but the boiling point is near. Something is about to happen, and the steam is getting ready to burst out. The Market's Pulse: Where the Crowd Goes Wrong And what about the crowd? The crowd isn't in Bitcoin anymore. They are trapped in altcoins, having resigned themselves to being "forever waiters." They are praying for an altseason, not realizing that the brief 20-30% pump we saw - that was the altseason. It has already become a meme. I see endless posts about liquidations on social media. The sentiment is desperate. Most have already lost their futures positions or will lose them soon. What reigns in the market right now isn't fear or greed, but rather a slow realization that the bear market never really left. The Main Setup on the Chart: A Classic Liquidity Trap Now for the most important part - what is happening on the Bitcoin chart? As you can see, we are sitting on a critical trendline support. Everyone sees it. Novices and retail traders see this as a clear "buy the dip" signal. And that is part of the game. A deliberate trap is being set: Consolidation : The price is being intentionally held near the support line to create an illusion of strength and to accumulate buyers' positions. Stacking Stop-Losses : Market makers know that the crowd places their stops just below this obvious line. Execution : Once enough liquidity has been built up, a sharp breakdown will occur. This will trigger a cascade of stop-loss liquidations, which will only accelerate the fall. I remain fully on the bearish side until we see a confident break of the all-time high. I view any bounce from the current levels as an opportunity for a better entry into a short position. What's Next? What is my advice to myself for the next 2-4 weeks? Wait. The market is preparing for a great cleansing. A wave of delistings of junk projects and meme coins - which serve no one but the exchanges that use them for hype - is coming. After this cleanse, there will be incredible opportunities to buy at very attractive prices. Now is the time for deep research into the projects you truly believe in. It's time to get your limit orders ready and wait for the market to come to your prices. Thank you for your attention. Regards, Your EXCAVO.

I want you to look closely at this chart. These aren't just lines and candles. This is a timeline of warnings. September 12th, 23th, 30th, October 6th, October 10th—I was screaming that the top was in. I told you I was getting out of the market. For this, I received more hate than I have in my entire career. 90% of the comments disagreed with me. But I knew what I was signing up for. I wanted to warn you. And I am grateful to those who listened. And today, we saw the price the market pays for euphoria. This Isn't a Meme. This is a Tragedy Today was not just a "liquidity grab." It was the robbery of 1.6 million traders for $10 billion. And these are not just numbers. Today, a trader I knew from competitions, Kostya Kudo, took his own life. This is no longer a joke. This is not a meme. People are dying. The best are leaving. We cannot watch this like it's some internet meme while real lives are being destroyed. How Did This Happen? The Anatomy of a Perfect Storm Of course, someone dumped a large volume. But why was the fall so deep and so fast? Cascading Liquidations: The first wave of selling triggered a chain reaction. A Vacuum in the Order Book: I've known this since 2019. During crashes like this, market makers simply switch off their algorithms to avoid losing money. They pull their liquidity. The order book becomes empty. Any sell order moves the price down by hundreds, thousands of dollars. This isn't a market. It's a vacuum. The Exchanges Are the Winners: Where are those $10 billion now? With the centralized exchanges. And no one will be compensated. You'll just be told, "Manage your risk next time." Why This Is Only the Beginning. The Road to the Bottom I cannot be liquidated. I am entirely in stablecoins, just as I said I would be. I am tired of this aggressive environment. But why am I certain we are going lower? Only futures traders have been liquidated so far. But there is an army of players using leverage through collateral. They collateralize BTC/ETH, receive stablecoins, buy more BTC/ETH with them, and collateralize again... creating a pyramid. They are waiting for BTC at $200k. With a 40-60% drop from the peak, this pyramid will begin to collapse, causing a new wave of forced selling. The bottom, by my calculations, will be around $60,000 - $65,000. And who needs these liquidations? The major financial players who need a good entry point. They don't buy at the highs. They buy on blood. An Address to Every Trader I want to speak to every one of you. Analysts, traders, investors, speculators. You work alone. One-on-one with your decisions, with your problems, in front of a screen. I have immense respect for everyone who has stepped onto this path. You have entered a hostile environment where the smartest algorithms and entire corporations want to take your money. I am disappointed myself. I was expecting an "altseason" that never came. And I admitted it in time: "Altseason" is a scam. A meme that no longer works with a million coins on the market. This isn't a flip-flop. I was following my plan: stay in until September. To those who are waiting for the market to fly up now "without the excess baggage"—good luck. I am not participating in that. I will return to active buying closer to September 2026. Who is left to push the market up? The 1.6 million liquidated traders? The traders who are no longer with us? This post is not gloating. It is pain. And it is a final warning. Protect yourselves and your capital. Best Regards EXCAVOThe next weekly candle will be red

In my last post, I announced the end of the bull cycle and shared my game plan for the next two years. I explained WHAT I am doing and WHY from a macroeconomic perspective. In this post, I will show you HOW I came to these conclusions using technical analysis. This isn't a gut feeling. It is a structure that is forming on the chart right now—a classic Wyckoff Distribution scheme. What is Wyckoff Distribution? To put it simply, Wyckoff Distribution is a model that shows how "smart money" (large players, insiders) gradually sells their assets to retail investors at the peak of the market. This process consists of several phases designed to create maximum euphoria and lure in as many buyers as possible before the decline begins. Detailed description: Examples: A Phase-by-Phase Breakdown of the Bitcoin Chart (Refer to your chart, which will be the main feature of the post) Now, look at the Bitcoin chart. The resemblance to a textbook example is striking: Phase A (Stopping the Trend): We saw the Preliminary Supply (PSY) and the Buying Climax (BC), where the uptrend began to lose momentum. Phase B (Building the "Cause"): A prolonged consolidation range where "smart money" began to carefully distribute their positions without crashing the price. Phase C (The Final Trap): The most critical phase. We witnessed the UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution)—a final push upward that created the illusion of a continued rally. This is the moment of peak euphoria, designed to trap the last buyers. This is precisely where we are now. Phase D & E (The Markdown): As the schematic shows, after Phase C, a sustained decline (the Markdown) begins, which marks the start of the bear market. The projected trajectory on the chart aligns perfectly with my plan to stay out of the market until September 2026. Conclusion & Call to Discussion This chart is not a 100% accurate prediction of the future. It is a map of market psychology. It shows that the current situation is not chaos, but a structured process that has happened many times throughout history. It is this structure that gives me the confidence in my decision to exit the market. I don't trust emotions; I trust a system. What do you see on the chart? Do you agree with this analysis? What questions do you have about this schematic? Let's discuss it in the comments. PS. My last post calling the top got a lot of hate. I read the 160+ comments. Here are my answers to the 3 main arguments from the bulls. Argument #1: "But ETFs & Institutions! It's different!" My Answer: New players, same game. The game is human psychology. Euphoria is still euphoria, no matter who's buying. Argument #2: "You're too early! There was no real altseason!" My Answer: Exactly. The lack of a 2017-style altseason proves the cycle is exhausted. The market showed us its peak strength, and this was it. Argument #3: "You're just trying to time the top!" My Answer: I'm not timing the top candle. I'm exiting during the distribution phase. Being early is a strategy. Being late is a catastrophe. The sheer amount of emotional rage in my comments is the final confirmation I need. I stand by my call. See you in 2026. #Bitcoin Best regards EXCAVO

The End of the Bull Cycle. Why I'm Selling Everything and Won't Buy Again Until September 2026. For the last year and a half, I have said that we are in a bull market. I never once changed my opinion. But all things come to an end. The time has come. September 13, 2025, the date I have been mentioning across my social media, was, in my opinion, the peak of this market cycle. As painful as it may sound, the bull market is over. "Altseason" is a Scam. It's Time to Grow Up Let's be honest. The "altseason" that everyone was dreaming of never happened. Yes, there were pumps on selective, mostly new coins. But the old guard, for the most part, showed nothing. Therefore, I want to officially declare: I will never use the word "altseason" again. It's a meme from 2017. There are now over a million coins on the market. Liquidity is so diluted that pumping everything is impossible. Instead of "altseason," we have, and always will have, "selective pumps" driven by interested players. Our job is to learn how to find them, not to wait for a mythical wave that will lift all boats. Why Now? The Classic Signs of a Top I wouldn't be so certain if I didn't see the classic signs of euphoria that always appear at the top of a cycle: - Universal Optimism: Governments are embracing crypto, creating reserve funds. -Corporate Buying: Public companies are massively buying Bitcoin and Ethereum. -Positive News: The media is filled with only positive news; no one wants to sell and is waiting for $200k, $300k, $500k. When the crowd rushes into the market, smart money begins to exit. I prefer to be with the latter. My Personal 2-Year Plan. Maximum Transparency I'm not just saying the market will fall. I am publicly sharing my plan of action: 1. I am exiting the market into stablecoins NOW. I am locking in my profits. 2. I will NOT be buying the first correction. When Bitcoin drops to $90,000, most people will be buying, thinking it's a discount. I will not. 3. I plan to start actively buying again in September 2026. Why so long? Because those who buy at the $90-100k mark risk sitting through two years of psychological and financial drawdown just to break even. I am not willing to pay that price. I won't disconnect from the market; I'll keep my finger on the pulse, but I don't plan on making any active buys. Cycles Work. My Technical Rationale My decision is not based on emotion but on cycle theory, which I have tested for years. The cycle consists of ~151 weeks of growth and ~51 weeks of decline. We have just completed the growth phase. The period between September 13 and October 6 is the exact reversal zone after which a decline should begin. I could be wrong. No one can be right all the time. Perhaps the cycle theory will break this time. But I trust my system. Conclusion: What's Next? The Long-Term View I have not become a bear forever. I believe Bitcoin will hit $300,000. But not in the coming months. It will be worth that in 2.5 years, after a healthy 50-60% correction from the peak. From this moment on, my bias is bearish. On strong upward bounces, I might even open short positions. A new game is beginning, with new rules. My job is to preserve my capital and multiply it in the next cycle. What about yours? Why bear market started now Proofs: Best regards EXCAVO

Sometimes, the market forces you to take a pause. The last few weeks have been exactly that for me. Health issues knocked me off my game, and my first thought, of course, was that it was due to the nerves and immense responsibility of this public #AltsznLive experiment. But after some self-reflection, I realized - it's not the trading stress. I've been in this game for 11 years and learned how to handle the pressure long ago. This experience only reminded me of the most important rule in our profession: the ability to take a step back. To step away from the charts, to rethink your strategy, to do something completely different. Over the years, I've taken such breaks many times, and each time I returned stronger, with a clearer vision. And this latest pause has led me to some profound thoughts that I simply must share with you. Everyone is searching for a Holy Grail in indicators, signals, and other people's opinions. But the only true grail is found within yourself. Success in trading is a direct consequence of deep and brutally honest self-analysis. In February of this year, I decided to tackle a big task: completely updating my educational Academy. This has always been a point of growth for me - structuring knowledge, learning new things. I created a detailed course plan, wrote down all the current relevant topics, and when I got to the section on "AI Agents," I stopped. And I disappeared. I went down that rabbit hole for four months, completely absorbed. I realized that the old format of education no longer works. It doesn't even inspire me anymore. So, I postponed the Academy update indefinitely. Instead, I focused on AI Agents. I saw in them not just a topic for a lesson, but the future - an army of personal assistants that can radically improve efficiency. I started creating them for myself, for my tasks, for my analysis. And I don't plan on stopping. In the coming bear market, I will dedicate even more time to this. Perhaps, a completely new, previously unimaginable format for the Academy will be born from this. I won't be publishing detailed content about the development process, but I will certainly share the most interesting developments with my community. Why I Still Believe in September This final push, which I've called "Altszn Live," fits perfectly into the market vision I formed long before it began. My core thesis remains unchanged: I believe the current growth cycle will end in September 2025. As in, next month. Right now, amidst the rally, I'm getting a flood of messages telling me I'm wrong, that the real altseason will be pushed to Q4, that everything is just getting started. And you know what? Maybe they're right. I fully admit that I could be wrong. I'm not trying to win a prediction contest. I won't get a medal for being right, and I won't be devastated if I'm mistaken - in 11 years, I've been wrong thousands of times, and there's nothing terrible about it. But I trust my system and my analysis more than the market noise. I will exit my positions in September and I will not re-enter the market until the end of the year, even if it goes to the moon. This site is called TradingView. A place where people share their vision. And this is my vision. The market is a living, pulsating organism. And I am here to study it, not to prove that I am right. A Deep Dive into Aptos ( APT ) So why am I betting on it again, on the supposed "loser"? Let's break it down. - The Counter-Argument and My Rebuttal: Yes, in the L1 narrative war, Aptos lost to SUI. Yes, it has complex tokenomics with constant unlocks that put pressure on the price. I see all of this. I am not betting on the obvious favorite. I am betting on market inefficiency. – The Entry Point: In trading, what matters is not just being right, but the price at which you enter. And right now, the entry point for Aptos looks far more attractive and safer to me than many other "overheated" projects that are already on everyone's lips. – The Behavioral Pattern: Aptos is slow. It's always late to the party. It doesn't lead the charge. BUT. When it starts to move, its growth becomes abnormally strong. Every single correction, no matter how small, is bought up instantly and aggressively. It just goes up, and up, and up. That's how it was last time. I am betting that the psychology of major players and the behavior of this asset have not changed. – The RWA Conviction: I will be blunt. I am deeply disappointed in 99% of altcoins. The more I research, the more I understand that most of these tokens are useless and provide no real value. My long-term conviction lies in the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). And Aptos is one of the TOP 3 blockchains leading this narrative. Technically - Unverified SFP - APTBTC potential reversal - APTETH I don't see any signs of a reversal - APTUSD in my area of interest - after the 6.25 break a rally should start Fundamental: Aptos is a project with extremely high potential but with corresponding risks. It can be described as a "blue-chip venture bet." The technology, team, and investors are top-tier (10/10). However, the weak and initially non-transparent tokenomics (4/10) is a major deterrent. The project is fairly valued by the market as a high-risk, high-reward asset. It is not a "hidden gem" due to its fame, nor is it a "scam," given its strong fundamentals. It is recommended for consideration as part of a diversified portfolio for investors with a high risk tolerance who are betting on the team and the long-term adoption of the Move technology. I plan to hold all my spot and futures positions until September 13th. Let's see together how it plays out. What's Next? Many of the coins I've mentioned before - LINK, ETH, and others-have already taken off. I am intentionally not publishing a flood of ideas this season. As I said, I'm disappointed with most of the market. After September, when I close this challenge, I will report back on the results - both the wins and the losses. And I will be sure to share my plans for what I'll be doing with my stablecoins next. I'm not the kind of author who publishes ten posts a day. I only share my thoughts when I truly have something to say. If you're interested in my journey, my approach, and my ideas - just leave a like on this post. Follow me if you want, don't if you don't. I am here to share my analysis; that's just how it's been since the beginning of my journey on TradingView. Much love to you all. With love, your EXCAVO.

This experience is built on analyzing every previous altseason. And here is the main takeaway: altseasons are always short, but incredibly rapid. In this chaos, most people, driven by emotion, make the same mistakes: - They open too many trades. -They close a position on the first small move, hoping to "re-enter" another project that's "about to explode." -They shift capital from a growing asset to one that hasn't moved yet. And it still doesn't move. The problem is the mindset. You don't invest in what's falling or bet on "dark horses." You invest in what is already growing. This might sound new to some, but the most important principle in trading, and in life, is to REINFORCE STRENGTH. This is an attention market. And attention is captured by the speed and power of growth. Everyone is looking at what's pumping. That's where the money flows. Your job is to be in that flow, not to try and catch a falling knife. And one more thing, the most critical rule for the next two months. I AM BEGGING YOU, DO NOT OPEN SHORT POSITIONS. Any 15-25% correction on a strong project is not a reason to short; it is your buying opportunity. Measure from the peak, and you will see these entry points. The strongest projects will correct even less. This system works. Of course, this doesn't mean blindly buying everything that's green. You need to understand the narratives. But if your project is old and showing weakness while others are flying, maybe it's time to switch to a leader. As a subscriber wrote in the comments of my last post: in the previous cycle, SUI did a 10x, while APTOS did a 4x. This clearly shows where the market's attention was focused, and consequently, where the results were. Best regards EXCAVO

Greetings to everyone reading these lines! Today, I want to share with you not just an analysis, but my personal reflections and feelings about the current situation in the financial and cryptocurrency markets, especially regarding Bitcoin. Many of you already know that I have always been a firm believer in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Right now, we are approaching the final stage of another such cycle-the distribution phase. The past few months have seen considerable turmoil: Trump's election, escalating conflicts between India and Pakistan, Israel and Iran, rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and not to mention China’s increasingly assertive geopolitical moves. I can't shake the feeling that the world stands on the threshold of something significant, perhaps serious. I sincerely hope I'm mistaken, but signs of a global conflict or a substantial reset in the world order are undeniably in the air. History shows us that after major upheavals and wars, the world undergoes profound changes. It seems we are nearing such a pivotal moment within the next couple of months. For a long time, I've highlighted September 2025 as a critical point in the current market cycle, and now everything confirms this scenario. In these unstable times, participants in the financial markets face both risks and tremendous opportunities. The distinguishing factor today is the rapid integration of artificial intelligence into all areas of life. I firmly believe that if you don't begin incorporating AI into your activities now, you risk being left behind. Personally, I'm actively integrating artificial intelligence into my professional processes and everyday life, as I see it as inevitable in our near future. Regarding the cryptocurrency market, I'll be frank: the past couple of years have significantly changed it and even somewhat disappointed me. Liquidity has become diluted, and the market has clearly become seasonal, with brief periods of explosive growth followed by long downturns. This has led me to return to trading Forex and gold, where the market is more transparent and predictable. Many crypto projects that seemed promising in 2017 are now nearly forgotten and stagnating. Think of Dash, EOS, Litecoin, ZCash, and others-they haven't disappeared entirely, but they no longer play significant roles in the market. The battle for user attention has become overly aggressive, and competition has devolved into chasing short-lived hype. Nevertheless, there are exceptions, such as Solana—a project that achieved success thanks to a fortunate combination of factors. Yet such projects remain exceedingly rare. Today, I see the most promising and powerful trend as the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). It doesn’t matter so much which blockchain will be used-the concept itself has already proven effective. While this journey won't be easy, the involvement of giants like BlackRock indicates the trend is sustainable and promising in the long run. Overall, I am confident that financial markets and digital currencies will continue to evolve and grow. However, in about two months, I plan to adopt a bearish stance. Unfortunately, there are few signs of a quick global economic recovery. The world needs significant restructuring and changes-new rules and agreements are inevitable, and the coming year promises many notable events. Ask yourself: Are you ready for these changes? Are you prepared to adapt to new conditions, technologies, and realities? Personally, I'm fully ready, which is why I remain active in the market, continuing to share my thoughts, assist, and engage with each of you. If you have questions, ideas, or proposals for collaboration, I am always open to dialogue and eager for any interaction. I sincerely thank each of you for your support, comments, and attention to my posts. I stay here because I believe in the enormous opportunities available even in the most uncertain times. We have an exciting journey ahead, and I invite you to travel it together with me. Wishing you success, profits, and above all, peace and kindness on our planet. The time of change is already here. Let’s meet it together. Warm regards, Your EXCAVO.Easy money

Just update of this idea Best regards EXCAVO

You're probably wondering why I'm talking about the dollar on the Bitcoin chart. It's because I want you to look a few steps ahead. That's why this post is for people like that. 1. Global Economic Transformations: Collapse of the Jamaican Monetary System Insights and Logic: We are witnessing the end of the Jamaican monetary system, established in 1976 following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. The Jamaican system's key feature is free (yet conditionally market-driven) exchange rates and the global dominance of the U.S. dollar. For decades, the U.S. utilized the dollar's reserve currency status to finance budget and trade deficits without equivalent value returns—a beneficial "global tax." Facts: Currently, over 60% of global reserves are denominated in dollars (IMF data), but diversification is accelerating. The U.S. is facing a "liquidity trap": to sustain markets, the Fed must print money, exacerbating inflation and weakening the dollar's global effectiveness. Analogy: Just as Nixon abolished the gold standard in 1971, we are now witnessing the abolition of the dollar's global standard—not abandoning the dollar as a reserve currency, but its monopoly. 2. Political Environment in the U.S.: Trump, Tariffs, and Managed Uncertainty Insights: Court decisions against Trump's tariffs are political tools, especially prior to congressional elections. Democrats aren't just fighting for power—they systematically undermine Trump's economic policies in voters' eyes. Systematic Explanation: Virtually any presidential decree in the U.S. can be challenged legally. Lower-court decisions rarely withstand appeals, yet they create temporary buffers allowing policy adjustments. This enables Trump to recalibrate his trade model systematically without losing face. Conclusion: The U.S. operates under "managed uncertainty," where seemingly chaotic political behaviors are structured adaptation mechanisms to global changes. 3. Mass Market and Sixth Technological Paradigm: NBIC as Foundation for Future Growth Insights: The future mass market will be built around NBIC technologies: * Nano—new materials and sensors; * Bio—biotech, genetic engineering, life extension; * Info—digital platforms, neural networks, blockchain; * Cogno—cognitive interfaces, AI, neural interfaces. Historical Analogy: Just as cars and mobile phones defined the mass market of the 20th century, longevity treatments, AI services, and neural devices will define the 21st century. Facts: Examples of current "false starts": Nvidia, Palantir, OpenAI—stock price volatility relates not to technology failures but premature valuation. Forecast: The next 20 years will see growth in new sectors, dominated by those capturing mass consumers, not just investors. 4. Digitalization and Geo-economics: Telegram, AI, and Control Facts: Telegram plans to integrate Grok neural network—a signal of the digital merger of communication, payment platforms, and behavioral analytics. Insight: Telegram as a future super-app: messaging, finance, AI assistance—all-in-one. This is a media reset: traditional platforms like Bloomberg and CNBC lose influence to those controlling data flows directly. Conclusion: Information landscapes become automated—algorithms, not journalists, manage narratives. 5. **Europe: From "Progress Locomotive" to Stagnation and Subcontracting** Facts: Germany has been in recession for three consecutive years. The average age is 46. Pension burdens and social standards make the economic model (Rhineland capitalism) unsustainable. Ideological Crisis: Europe is split into "transhumanist" (West) and "neoconservative" (East) factions. The neoconservative revolution is gaining ground in Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and even eastern Germany. Conclusion: Europe is skipping the sixth technological paradigm, becoming a "comfortable but uncompetitive" zone. Europe's "Japanification"—a path without acute crises but also without growth. 6. Future Growth Centers: Asia and the Global South with Risks Facts and Locations: Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand—dynamic economies with high ROI and moderate political risks. Philippines, Taiwan—potential proxy-conflict zones between the U.S. and China. Logic: Global capital moves towards higher returns rather than better living standards. Asia becomes a new economic and geopolitical battleground similar to 20th-century Europe. 7. Role of Cryptocurrencies and USDT, USDC: Transition to Digital Dollar Facts: U.S. authorities view cryptocurrencies, especially USDT, as tools to reboot the dollar model. USDT effectively integrates the dollar into the crypto economy, maintaining Treasury demand and allowing dollar exports outside the U.S. Insights: Unlike CBDCs, the U.S. digital dollar (via stablecoins) enables global expansion rather than local control. The U.S. aims to lead the new monetary evolution—digital dominance instead of fiat. 8. Prospects in Latin America: Argentina, Mexico, and Risks Argentina Analysis: President Milei implements neoliberal reforms akin to Ukraine's: reduced state role and deregulation. Possible outcomes: deindustrialization, increased poverty, export dependency. Positives: No war risks, resource-rich (oil, wine, food), good medicine and education standards (legacy). Mexico: High growth yet severe crime levels—excellent for business, risky for life. 9. Global Hybrid War Instead of a Third World War Concept: Not a "world war" but a global hybrid war: multiple power centers, proxy conflicts, shifting alliances. Theaters of conflict: Asia (especially the South China Sea), potentially the Middle East and Africa. Strategic Conclusion: Avoid proxy countries; prefer "neutral dynamic" regions like Indonesia, Vietnam. About DXY I have been talking about the fall of the dollar index for a very long time. September is coming soon Best regards EXCAVO