EXCAVO

Greetings to everyone reading these lines! Today, I want to share with you not just an analysis, but my personal reflections and feelings about the current situation in the financial and cryptocurrency markets, especially regarding Bitcoin. Many of you already know that I have always been a firm believer in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Right now, we are approaching the final stage of another such cycle-the distribution phase. The past few months have seen considerable turmoil: Trump's election, escalating conflicts between India and Pakistan, Israel and Iran, rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and not to mention China’s increasingly assertive geopolitical moves. I can't shake the feeling that the world stands on the threshold of something significant, perhaps serious. I sincerely hope I'm mistaken, but signs of a global conflict or a substantial reset in the world order are undeniably in the air. History shows us that after major upheavals and wars, the world undergoes profound changes. It seems we are nearing such a pivotal moment within the next couple of months. For a long time, I've highlighted September 2025 as a critical point in the current market cycle, and now everything confirms this scenario. In these unstable times, participants in the financial markets face both risks and tremendous opportunities. The distinguishing factor today is the rapid integration of artificial intelligence into all areas of life. I firmly believe that if you don't begin incorporating AI into your activities now, you risk being left behind. Personally, I'm actively integrating artificial intelligence into my professional processes and everyday life, as I see it as inevitable in our near future. Regarding the cryptocurrency market, I'll be frank: the past couple of years have significantly changed it and even somewhat disappointed me. Liquidity has become diluted, and the market has clearly become seasonal, with brief periods of explosive growth followed by long downturns. This has led me to return to trading Forex and gold, where the market is more transparent and predictable. Many crypto projects that seemed promising in 2017 are now nearly forgotten and stagnating. Think of Dash, EOS, Litecoin, ZCash, and others-they haven't disappeared entirely, but they no longer play significant roles in the market. The battle for user attention has become overly aggressive, and competition has devolved into chasing short-lived hype. Nevertheless, there are exceptions, such as Solana—a project that achieved success thanks to a fortunate combination of factors. Yet such projects remain exceedingly rare. Today, I see the most promising and powerful trend as the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). It doesn’t matter so much which blockchain will be used-the concept itself has already proven effective. While this journey won't be easy, the involvement of giants like BlackRock indicates the trend is sustainable and promising in the long run. Overall, I am confident that financial markets and digital currencies will continue to evolve and grow. However, in about two months, I plan to adopt a bearish stance. Unfortunately, there are few signs of a quick global economic recovery. The world needs significant restructuring and changes-new rules and agreements are inevitable, and the coming year promises many notable events. Ask yourself: Are you ready for these changes? Are you prepared to adapt to new conditions, technologies, and realities? Personally, I'm fully ready, which is why I remain active in the market, continuing to share my thoughts, assist, and engage with each of you. If you have questions, ideas, or proposals for collaboration, I am always open to dialogue and eager for any interaction. I sincerely thank each of you for your support, comments, and attention to my posts. I stay here because I believe in the enormous opportunities available even in the most uncertain times. We have an exciting journey ahead, and I invite you to travel it together with me. Wishing you success, profits, and above all, peace and kindness on our planet. The time of change is already here. Let’s meet it together. Warm regards, Your EXCAVO.Easy money

Just update of this ideaBest regards EXCAVO

You're probably wondering why I'm talking about the dollar on the Bitcoin chart. It's because I want you to look a few steps ahead. That's why this post is for people like that.1. Global Economic Transformations: Collapse of the Jamaican Monetary SystemInsights and Logic:We are witnessing the end of the Jamaican monetary system, established in 1976 following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.The Jamaican system's key feature is free (yet conditionally market-driven) exchange rates and the global dominance of the U.S. dollar.For decades, the U.S. utilized the dollar's reserve currency status to finance budget and trade deficits without equivalent value returns—a beneficial "global tax."Facts:Currently, over 60% of global reserves are denominated in dollars (IMF data), but diversification is accelerating.The U.S. is facing a "liquidity trap": to sustain markets, the Fed must print money, exacerbating inflation and weakening the dollar's global effectiveness.Analogy:Just as Nixon abolished the gold standard in 1971, we are now witnessing the abolition of the dollar's global standard—not abandoning the dollar as a reserve currency, but its monopoly.2. Political Environment in the U.S.: Trump, Tariffs, and Managed UncertaintyInsights:Court decisions against Trump's tariffs are political tools, especially prior to congressional elections.Democrats aren't just fighting for power—they systematically undermine Trump's economic policies in voters' eyes.Systematic Explanation:Virtually any presidential decree in the U.S. can be challenged legally. Lower-court decisions rarely withstand appeals, yet they create temporary buffers allowing policy adjustments.This enables Trump to recalibrate his trade model systematically without losing face.Conclusion:The U.S. operates under "managed uncertainty," where seemingly chaotic political behaviors are structured adaptation mechanisms to global changes.3. Mass Market and Sixth Technological Paradigm: NBIC as Foundation for Future GrowthInsights:The future mass market will be built around NBIC technologies:* Nano—new materials and sensors;* Bio—biotech, genetic engineering, life extension;* Info—digital platforms, neural networks, blockchain;* Cogno—cognitive interfaces, AI, neural interfaces.Historical Analogy:Just as cars and mobile phones defined the mass market of the 20th century, longevity treatments, AI services, and neural devices will define the 21st century.Facts:Examples of current "false starts": Nvidia, Palantir, OpenAI—stock price volatility relates not to technology failures but premature valuation.Forecast:The next 20 years will see growth in new sectors, dominated by those capturing mass consumers, not just investors.4. Digitalization and Geo-economics: Telegram, AI, and ControlFacts:Telegram plans to integrate Grok neural network—a signal of the digital merger of communication, payment platforms, and behavioral analytics.Insight:Telegram as a future super-app: messaging, finance, AI assistance—all-in-one.This is a media reset: traditional platforms like Bloomberg and CNBC lose influence to those controlling data flows directly.Conclusion:Information landscapes become automated—algorithms, not journalists, manage narratives.5. **Europe: From "Progress Locomotive" to Stagnation and Subcontracting**Facts:Germany has been in recession for three consecutive years. The average age is 46.Pension burdens and social standards make the economic model (Rhineland capitalism) unsustainable.Ideological Crisis:Europe is split into "transhumanist" (West) and "neoconservative" (East) factions.The neoconservative revolution is gaining ground in Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and even eastern Germany.Conclusion:Europe is skipping the sixth technological paradigm, becoming a "comfortable but uncompetitive" zone. Europe's "Japanification"—a path without acute crises but also without growth.6. Future Growth Centers: Asia and the Global South with RisksFacts and Locations:Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand—dynamic economies with high ROI and moderate political risks.Philippines, Taiwan—potential proxy-conflict zones between the U.S. and China.Logic:Global capital moves towards higher returns rather than better living standards.Asia becomes a new economic and geopolitical battleground similar to 20th-century Europe.7. Role of Cryptocurrencies and USDT, USDC: Transition to Digital DollarFacts:U.S. authorities view cryptocurrencies, especially USDT, as tools to reboot the dollar model.USDT effectively integrates the dollar into the crypto economy, maintaining Treasury demand and allowing dollar exports outside the U.S.Insights:Unlike CBDCs, the U.S. digital dollar (via stablecoins) enables global expansion rather than local control.The U.S. aims to lead the new monetary evolution—digital dominance instead of fiat.8. Prospects in Latin America: Argentina, Mexico, and RisksArgentina Analysis:President Milei implements neoliberal reforms akin to Ukraine's: reduced state role and deregulation.Possible outcomes: deindustrialization, increased poverty, export dependency.Positives:No war risks, resource-rich (oil, wine, food), good medicine and education standards (legacy).Mexico:High growth yet severe crime levels—excellent for business, risky for life.9. Global Hybrid War Instead of a Third World WarConcept:Not a "world war" but a global hybrid war: multiple power centers, proxy conflicts, shifting alliances.Theaters of conflict: Asia (especially the South China Sea), potentially the Middle East and Africa.Strategic Conclusion:Avoid proxy countries; prefer "neutral dynamic" regions like Indonesia, Vietnam.About DXY I have been talking about the fall of the dollar index for a very long time.September is coming soonBest regards EXCAVO

💥 "One Last Leap of Faith?" - What Bitcoin Might Be Hiding Before SeptemberThe world’s on fire: Israel, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, oil, elections, the dollar, rates, black swan whispers.And someone’s out here saying Bitcoin might still go up?Yes. We are. Not because we believe - but because we see.📉 Everyone’s afraid. The whales aren’t.When the crowd goes into survival mode, the real game begins.Whales aren’t exiting - they’re accumulating.ETFs aren’t pausing - they’re inflowing.The technical setup isn’t breaking - it’s compressing like a spring. $104,000. Coil building.If we break out - targets at $132K–$140K are absolutely in play.👉 But that’s not the point.The point is why this is happening while the world is burning.🧠 The idea: Bitcoin isn’t a safe haven. It’s a distribution machine.Gold is for panic.Bitcoin is for structure.Institutions don’t ask “is it scary?” - they ask “where’s liquidity?”Everything is aligning for one last upside move.Until September. After that - chaos is back on the table.💣 The Global Playbook: Now (Summer) - Consolidation, ETF flows, geopolitical fear- Strategic entries, low exposureBreakout - FOMO panic, retail rushes in - Profit-taking via optionsSeptember–Fall - Macro/geopolitical shock - Already in cash or hedged📌 Bottom LineYes, Bitcoin might pump. Not because the world is fine - but because someone needs to exit beautifully.If you're reading this - you're early enough to think.Markets don’t reward justice. They reward positioning.🛠 What to do right now:Watch the $104,000 level - it's the pivotBreakout = final upside push to $132K–140KKeep your eyes on September - reversal zoneThink in scenarios: entry, exit, protectionFollow EXCAVO - we don’t guess, we read the gameI've been talking about this scenario for a long timeIf you have any question feel free to askThe chart looks dirty, but you can clean it up and check out the new Tradingview featureA few months ago, I published a private chart. And I talked about 5 scenariosThe yellow scenario is happening nowYou can click on "Grab this chart" and remove all unnecessary things and only what you see now in this post will remain

Price isn’t the goal. Price is the side effect.Meanwhile, BlackRock - a black hole with a trust-backed logo - just absorbed 42,000 ETH more.Yesterday, you may have read this "regular" headline:BlackRock increases its Ethereum exposure to $4 billion, adding $109.5 million via ETFs.But here’s what you missed: there are no random numbers on the market.When a player like this moves - it’s not hype. It’s a blueprint for the future.Ethereum is no longer an altcoin.It’s no longer speculation. It’s a financial infrastructure, already recognized by law, exchanges, and institutions.What does this mean?💡 Ethereum is now a digital bond - with yield flowing from blocks.Profit is no longer built on promises, but on the structure of the chain itself.Trust lies not in faces, but in code.Growth is not artificial — it’s architectural.And here’s why this is terrifyingly beautiful:While you sleep, they are building an era.Each ETF purchase removes ETH from circulation - permanently. Because:✅ This ETH is gone from the open market✅ It won’t be panic-sold✅ It becomes income-bearing collateral, not a speculative assetStill waiting for an entry signal?The big players are already in.This is no longer crypto - this is cash flow infrastructure, embedded into the digital economy.And when pension funds, insurers, and sovereign investors move into Ethereum - they will come via ETFs.Not because it’s trendy, but because it’s regulated, stable, and profitable.📉 When institutional demand meets vanishing supply - the price won’t simply rise. It will explode, not as growth, but as a structural liquidity shift.Ethereum is:💸 Staking = passive yield🔗 Backbone of DeFi🖼 Fuel for NFTs⚙️ Millions of transactions per second⚖️ A regulated ETF assetThis is the new digital bond system, where the bet isn’t on the dollar - it’s on ETH as an income-producing asset.💥 While you're reading this, the game is already on.ETFs are rewriting the rules of time-ownership.No hype. Just filings. Just intention.Best regards EXCAVO

Hello everyone, many of you asked me to publish my vision for ETH. Here you go!I believe that the previous impulse movement was only the first upward movement, and now we are in a sideways correction movement — call it what you will, but the fact is that the exit from this flat will be upward.1. End of the year2. ETH is accumulating on the Onchain3. Liquidity overflow from BTC can be seen on the ETHBTC chart, and the overflow began at the very bottom4. What else can large conservative players accumulate?5. We are going after liquidity from above and should break 4100 by September Best Regards EXCAVO

I don't think I need to explain what APTOS is here.Right now, it's a good point for a swing position, which is why you're seeing this post.Best regards EXCAVO

Economic Environment and Gold ValuationThe economic factors influencing gold prices remain pivotal, particularly as we navigate through June 2025. The recent strengthening of the US dollar has emerged as a significant contributor to the shifting dynamics in gold markets. Traditionally, an inverse relationship exists between the dollar's value and gold prices; a strong dollar decreases gold's appeal by making it more expensive for foreign investors.Inflation continues to be a cornerstone in understanding gold valuation. Historically, gold is viewed as an effective hedge against inflation, preserving purchasing power during periods when currency values are eroded. As inflationary pressures fluctuate, so too does gold’s attractiveness. The Federal Reserve's data release scheduled for June 11, 2025, will be crucial in gauging inflation's trajectory. Should inflation edge closer to the Fed’s 2% target, there may be downward pressure on gold. Conversely, any unexpected uptick in inflation could reinforce gold’s status as a safe haven. Moreover, Federal Reserve policy decisions play a pivotal role. The upcoming meeting set around June 6, 2025, presents a high probability of maintaining current interest rates. A pause in rate adjustments acts as a double-edged sword. It can sustain higher gold prices by indicating an economic environment still in need of accommodative monetary policy, while any signal toward future rate cuts can stimulate demand owing to the decreased opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.Geopolitical influences also cannot be ignored. Political uncertainties, such as those arising from U.S. elections or Middle Eastern tensions, inherently drive market volatility, prompting a flight to assets perceived as stable, such as gold. Furthermore, global trade conflicts, particularly between major economies like the U.S. and China, compound existing uncertainties and elevate gold's appeal as an insurance against systemic risks.TAI am still waiting for targets of 3600+ We are now close to the resistance line, and I believe that any news about instability in the world will break it and send us flying upwards.Best Regards EXCAVO_____________________Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.

So the offline tournament is over, I took third place, and I just got back into work modeIn my previous publication (link), I outlined possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s price action, leaning towards a correction from around the $98-101k zone down to approximately $88k.However, the current market situation demonstrates the most optimistic scenario (highlighted in yellow on the chart). At the moment, we're seeing Bitcoin consolidating within a clear range, likely preparing for an upward breakout without a significant correction. This scenario is certainly the most bullish one, yet my inherent skepticism doesn't exclude the possibility of a correction before we reach a new all-time high (ATH).📌 Key points in the current market situation:The main question now is not whether we'll achieve a new ATH (as this seems almost inevitable) but rather how we'll get there.Two scenarios are on the table: a smooth upward trajectory without substantial corrections, or an initial correction followed by a strong breakout.🔖 Profit Maximization Strategy:Many traders are shifting their attention towards altcoins, tempted by potentially greater returns. However, it's crucial to remember that higher upside potential also means significantly higher risks (low liquidity, increased manipulation, higher volatility).I have already chosen the tokens that I am interested in for long timeAlso now a new narrative has appeared, Internet Capital Markets (ICM) tokens. If you are interested, write in the comments "interesting ICM"Best regards EXCAVOICM

Hey everyone!In just 2 days, my first offline/online trading tournament kicks off — and you'll be able to watch everything live. It's a big milestone for me and a real-time test of my analysis. But now, let’s get back to the market...💰 Bitcoin today — May 7As I mentioned earlier, I expect Bitcoin to reach the 98 K - 100 K zone this May to grab the liquidity sitting above the highs. This could be the final push before a correction. Check the chart for details.When we reach 100k, all the public media will say that BTC broke 100k and after that there will be a rollback, as happens very often.📉 After that, a correction makes sense; I’ve explained why in earlier posts. But let’s talk fundamentals.🗞️ Not rumors. Facts:🔹 The U.S. is moving toward Bitcoin reserves.New Hampshire just became the first U.S. state to pass a law creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, signed by Governor Kelly Ayotte.🔹 I believe other states will follow with similar legislation - this is no longer speculation. It's the next phase of BTC adoption in the U.S.And as the saying goes:"Buy the rumor, sell the news."🌍 Geopolitical tension:The India-Pakistan conflict is now a global headline. Two nuclear powers. Any correction could easily be “justified” by this news.But...📊 I don’t trade the news - I trade my analysis.As you know, I publish my forecasts ahead of time and stay consistent.🧭 My outlook:I expect one last minor correction in the next 1 - 2 weeks, followed by a move to new all-time highs.Best regards, EXCAVO_____________________Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.