Technical analysis by EXCAVO about Symbol BTC: Sell recommendation (9/30/2025)

In my last post, I announced the end of the bull cycle and shared my game plan for the next two years. I explained WHAT I am doing and WHY from a macroeconomic perspective. In this post, I will show you HOW I came to these conclusions using technical analysis. This isn't a gut feeling. It is a structure that is forming on the chart right now—a classic Wyckoff Distribution scheme. What is Wyckoff Distribution? To put it simply, Wyckoff Distribution is a model that shows how "smart money" (large players, insiders) gradually sells their assets to retail investors at the peak of the market. This process consists of several phases designed to create maximum euphoria and lure in as many buyers as possible before the decline begins. Detailed description: Examples: A Phase-by-Phase Breakdown of the Bitcoin Chart (Refer to your chart, which will be the main feature of the post) Now, look at the Bitcoin chart. The resemblance to a textbook example is striking: Phase A (Stopping the Trend): We saw the Preliminary Supply (PSY) and the Buying Climax (BC), where the uptrend began to lose momentum. Phase B (Building the "Cause"): A prolonged consolidation range where "smart money" began to carefully distribute their positions without crashing the price. Phase C (The Final Trap): The most critical phase. We witnessed the UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution)—a final push upward that created the illusion of a continued rally. This is the moment of peak euphoria, designed to trap the last buyers. This is precisely where we are now. Phase D & E (The Markdown): As the schematic shows, after Phase C, a sustained decline (the Markdown) begins, which marks the start of the bear market. The projected trajectory on the chart aligns perfectly with my plan to stay out of the market until September 2026. Conclusion & Call to Discussion This chart is not a 100% accurate prediction of the future. It is a map of market psychology. It shows that the current situation is not chaos, but a structured process that has happened many times throughout history. It is this structure that gives me the confidence in my decision to exit the market. I don't trust emotions; I trust a system. What do you see on the chart? Do you agree with this analysis? What questions do you have about this schematic? Let's discuss it in the comments. PS. My last post calling the top got a lot of hate. I read the 160+ comments. Here are my answers to the 3 main arguments from the bulls. Argument #1: "But ETFs & Institutions! It's different!" My Answer: New players, same game. The game is human psychology. Euphoria is still euphoria, no matter who's buying. Argument #2: "You're too early! There was no real altseason!" My Answer: Exactly. The lack of a 2017-style altseason proves the cycle is exhausted. The market showed us its peak strength, and this was it. Argument #3: "You're just trying to time the top!" My Answer: I'm not timing the top candle. I'm exiting during the distribution phase. Being early is a strategy. Being late is a catastrophe. The sheer amount of emotional rage in my comments is the final confirmation I need. I stand by my call. See you in 2026. #Bitcoin Best regards EXCAVO