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By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Gold (Ticker AT: GOLD) is once again at the center of financial debate. After years of solid gains and an undisputed role as a safe haven, a little-explored factor could trigger an unprecedented bull cycle: the potential revaluation of the United States’ official gold reserves. The Hidden Catalyst The United States holds 261.5 million troy ounces in official reserves, valued on the books at only $42.22 per ounce, or roughly $11 billion in total. However, the current gold price hovers around $3,500 per ounce, revealing a vast gap between accounting value and market reality. Some lawmakers, including Senator Cynthia Lummis, have proposed updating these reserves to market prices. The impact would be colossal: such an adjustment would represent about 3% of U.S. GDP, potentially used to reduce the deficit, lower public debt, or create a strategic fund tied to new reserves in bitcoin. Global Implications A revaluation of this magnitude would not only reinforce gold’s monetary role but also free resources to alleviate deficit pressures and debt interest obligations. At the same time, it could have an inflationary side effect, acting as an indirect monetary injection that weakens the dollar against gold and other currencies. If realized, this move could influence other central banks, creating a chain reaction with greater revaluation of global reserves and increased demand for gold as a strategic asset. Central banks’ interest already supports this thesis: in 2024, net purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes of gold for the third consecutive year, and in 2025 buying momentum remains high. This trend validates gold’s role as a strategic monetary asset and increases pressure to adjust its official valuation. Investor Perspective A potential official revaluation of U.S. reserves could become one of the largest bullish catalysts in decades, solidifying gold as a hedge against U.S. fiscal risk, the erosion of the dollar as a global reserve currency, and geopolitical tensions. For investors, maintaining strategic exposure to the precious metal appears more relevant than ever. This can be achieved through physical gold, gold-backed ETFs, gold mining stocks, or hybrid instruments such as gold loans with additional yield. The Gold Zapatero Sold at a Loss During José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s government, the Bank of Spain carried out one of the largest reductions in gold reserves in recent history. Between 2005 and 2007, it sold around 242 tonnes, nearly half of the national stock, which fell from 523 tonnes to just 282 tonnes. In 2007 alone, more than 130 tonnes were sold under European central bank agreements aimed at diversifying assets and investing in sovereign debt. Since then, Spain’s gold position has remained virtually unchanged at around 281 tonnes, with no significant purchases, unlike other central banks that have increased their reserves in recent years. At today’s price of $3,500 per ounce, Spain’s current gold reserves (281 t) would be worth approximately $31.6 billion. In contrast, the 242 tonnes sold under Zapatero fetched only ~$3.5 billion, meaning those reserves would now be worth ~$27.2 billion, more than seven times the sale price at the time. Technical Analysis of Gold (Ticker AT: GOLD) Gold cash is currently trading slightly above $3,500 per ounce, consolidating after the strong bullish surge in August. The technical structure shows a market still dominated by buyers, although signs of overextension and sideways movement are emerging. The price has lost the 50-day moving average support and currently rests weakly above the 100-day average. Key Levels Immediate Resistance: $3,578.37 – a psychological zone coinciding with recent highs and selling pressure. Next Resistance: $3,600 – round number and likely target if bullish momentum continues. Immediate Support: $3,510 – a short-term reference; a break could trigger a deeper correction. Relevant Support: $3,499.57 – confluence zone from the last impulse, acting as strong support for the recent bullish move. Technical Indicators RSI: ~39.41%, in oversold territory, suggesting potential price recovery. MACD: bearish signal, with a negative histogram reflecting fatigue in the bullish impulse. Moving Averages: price comfortably above the 50-day average, maintaining the underlying bullish trend. Point of Control (POC): $4,777.97 in the previous accumulation zone. Probable Scenarios The technical bias remains bullish as long as gold holds relevant support and stays above the POC. However, oversold conditions increase the likelihood of temporary sideways consolidation to prepare for new highs. A drop below $3,457 would test the 200-day moving average and challenge the current trend, though institutional buyers may use the $3,510 support area to reposition. The recent surge has pushed prices above a long-term range recently broken with some force, suggesting a potential revisit of supporting trend lines to retest and surpass current highs. Planned Fiat Devaluation and Return to the Gold Standard? Gold sits at an inflection point where structural and technical forces converge. On one hand, the hypothesis of an official revaluation of U.S. reserves introduces a potentially transformative factor that could start a broad new bull cycle. The market shows a clear underlying positive trend with necessary consolidation phases. For institutions, gold is gaining appeal as a hedge against U.S. fiscal risk, dollar pressure, and uncertainty. In the short term, the market is defending supports and seeking to recover above the 50-day moving average. Long-term institutional accumulation and global monetary policy reinforce the thesis that gold will continue playing a central role in the international financial architecture—not just as a safe haven, but as a backbone of the future monetary system. Europe, and particularly Spain, will need to take measures to position its reserves strategically in line with this trend. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.

Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) is not only focused on stocks and cryptocurrencies; it is now taking a bold step into sports prediction markets. Thanks to its integration with Kalshi, the app will allow users to bet on NFL and NCAA outcomes throughout the regular season. This move, presented as a “prediction market” to avoid conflicts with the CFTC, demonstrates Robinhood’s intention to become the “one-stop shop” for the modern investor, combining finance, entertainment, and cryptocurrencies. Kalshi, Robinhood’s technology partner, accepts payments in USDC, Bitcoin, Solana, and WLD, directly integrating the stablecoin ecosystem into betting and predictions. This approach highlights the growing importance of stablecoins as a vehicle for liquidity and digital transactions. Interest in USDC is accelerating alongside the regulatory clarity provided by the recent GENIUS Act, which establishes federal standards for stablecoins. According to a Goldman Sachs report, the global stablecoin market, valued at $271 billion, could see a significant boost for USDC, with projected growth of $77 billion between 2024 and 2027. Circle, the issuer of USDC, stands to benefit from reserve transparency and a favorable regulatory environment, positioning itself against Tether in the so-called “stablecoin gold rush.” Robinhood (Ticker AT: HOOD) continues gaining ground. Robinhood has confirmed that it is still in full expansion. In Q2 2025, the platform reported revenues of $989 million, a 45% increase compared to the same period last year, while net profit doubled, rising 105%, demonstrating that its business model remains profitable. The company is not only focused on stock trading but has diversified its offerings. With premium services such as Robinhood Gold, a new credit card, the Robinhood Legend platform, and the acquisition of Bitstamp, Robinhood aims to consolidate its presence in the cryptocurrency and futures markets, diversifying its revenue streams. The company’s ambitious goal is to capture a significant share of the estimated $84 trillion wealth transfer to younger generations over the next two decades. From a technical perspective, HOOD shares are trading at $105.34 as of yesterday, up 182% over the past year, confirming a sustained upward trend. Technical Currently, Robinhood shares trade at $105.34, with a P/E ratio of 46.21 and EPS of 1.96. Over the past year, the stock has risen 182.72%, showing a strong upward trend. Yesterday’s bearish close after hitting a high of $117.70 for the second time in August suggests the bullish momentum may require more volume to continue. The RSI at 50.15% and MACD entering negative territory, along with a Point of Control (POC) at $49.11 (less than half of the current price), could signal a potential price correction despite the hype and high expectations. The volume over the last two sessions has been relatively high (56.52M vs. 41.47M), suggesting a possible pause in the rally, provided strong support levels at $90 and $96.86 hold. The price has lost support from the 50-day moving average but remains above the 100-day moving average. USDC: The Stablecoin That Keeps Growing In the cryptocurrency world, USDC continues to strengthen its position. The stablecoin issued by Circle has seen its circulation exceed $65.2 billion, a 90% increase over the past year, reflecting growing confidence from both institutional and retail investors. Although Circle reported revenues of $658 million in Q2 2025, up 53% from last year, it still shows a net loss of $482 million due to accounting adjustments related to its IPO. However, recent stablecoin regulation (GENIUS Act) has provided greater security for users and boosted institutional adoption of USDC as a payment method and store of value. Technical Practically speaking, USDC continues to fulfill its goal: maintaining parity with the US dollar, trading steadily at $1, offering confidence in a volatile market. Its stability, backed by liquid and secure assets, reinforces its position as one of the most reliable stablecoins. Yesterday’s session saw a correction from a high of $1.00050 to today’s price of $0.99997. The RSI today is around 50.79%, and the MACD indicates an expansion of the bullish trend. Looking Ahead: Innovation and Stability Hand in Hand Robinhood and USDC are not just individual market movements but part of an interconnected financial ecosystem. While Robinhood expands into prediction and financial entertainment markets, USDC solidifies its role as a reliable stablecoin, driven by regulation and institutional trust. The combination of technological innovation, product diversification, and regulatory stability is redefining how we interact with markets. For investors, this is not just a trend—it is a clear signal that digital finance is evolving from an experiment into global infrastructure. Those who identify these opportunities could benefit from both growth in prediction markets and the widespread adoption of regulated stablecoins. In short: Robinhood predicts, USDC supports, and the digital market moves toward a more integrated and secure future. ******************************************************************************************* La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial. Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información. Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada y las estimaciones no sinónimo ni un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo. Los tipos de interés pueden cambiar. El riesgo político es impredecible. Las acciones de los bancos centrales pueden variar. Las herramientas de las plataformas no garantizan el éxito.

Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Fundamental Analysis In 2025, gold has appreciated around 27% year-to-date, reaching a peak of 33.37% at the end of April, driven by structural factors. Its strength is based on global de-dollarization, central bank purchases, persistent inflation, and expectations of real rate cuts in the U.S. Since real interest rates peaked in July 2023, gold has risen 74%, reinforcing its role as a hedge against monetary policy. In addition, countries like China and Russia continue to accumulate gold as protection against the dollar and potential sanctions, supporting long-term structural demand. Diversifying with physical and financial gold (ETFs, mining stocks) is an increasingly common strategy in an environment of high debt, geopolitical tensions, and doubts about traditional safe-haven assets. A suggested allocation in a classic model portfolio could range between 10% and 25%, depending on the risk profile, in a typical equity-focused investment portfolio. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, gold has completed a long-term “cup with handle” formation that began in 2012, with an upside projection toward the $4,000 per ounce area. This pattern supports the continuation of its long-term upward structure. In the short term, however, the price is in a consolidation phase after reaching all-time highs of $3,499.94 at the end of April. Since then, the lateral movement suggests a pause within the primary trend. Technical indicators are showing mixed signals: RSI and MACD are pointing toward a possible oversold condition, suggesting a risk of short-term correction. Additionally, a bearish crossover between the 50-day and 100-day moving averages may reinforce selling pressure. If this corrective scenario unfolds, gold could retrace toward a key support zone around $3,140, a level that has served as the base of the current range and where renewed buying interest could emerge. Despite a possible pullback, the broader technical outlook remains constructive. Any correction would likely present tactical opportunities to re-enter the market—especially if expectations of real rate cuts or global geopolitical tensions persist. Gold Consolidates After Highs All in all, despite potential short-term pullbacks, gold continues to offer value as a tool for diversification, wealth protection, and a hedge against systemic risks. Its inclusion in portfolios remains relevant, even at current levels. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.

By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Meta Platforms (TICKER AT: META.US) has posted strong quarterly results that significantly exceeded market expectations, driven by its solid positioning in artificial intelligence, advertising monetization, and the resilience of its digital ecosystem. Key Financial Highlights In the second quarter of 2025, Meta reported revenues of $38.72 billion, representing a 15% year-over-year increase, beating consensus estimates by over $1 billion. Net profit reached $13.46 billion, with an adjusted EPS of $5.22, reflecting strong operating leverage. The advertising segment remains the main growth driver, but revenue gains from generative AI services and enterprise solutions powered by Meta AI and Llama 3, its proprietary language model, were also noteworthy. Meanwhile, Reality Labs, although still operating at a loss, managed to contain its deficits and improve efficiency, while preparing for upcoming product launches linked to the metaverse. The company maintains a robust cash position with over $58 billion in liquidity, and announced a new $25 billion share buyback program, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder value creation. Fundamental Analysis Meta is solidifying its strategic transition into a tech conglomerate focused on AI, personalized advertising, and immersive environments. Despite ongoing regulatory challenges in the U.S. and Europe—having yielded this time to Brussels—the company has maintained strong growth in daily active users (DAUs) and monthly active users (MAUs) across its core platforms: Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Consistent investment in AI infrastructure and data centers, coupled with an improved operating margin now at 39%, positions Meta among the most efficient players in the tech sector. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, Meta is currently trading around $717, following a near 50% rally since April. The daily chart shows a clear uptrend with higher lows in place since November 2022. The RSI stands at approximately 56.34%, indicating strength without entering overbought territory. The 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages remain aligned in a bullish formation. The next resistance level is at the all-time high of $747.90; a breakout could pave the way toward $800 in the short term. The key support level lies at $689, where the 100-day moving average and recent price action converge. The Point of Control (POC) sits around $590, marking the base of the previous upward move and the recent golden cross that triggered the current rally. Conclusion Meta continues to affirm its leadership in the tech sector—not just as a social media powerhouse, but as a key player in the development and implementation of AI-based solutions. Revenue diversification, cost control, and a solid financial structure reinforce its position in an increasingly competitive market. While macroeconomic volatility and regulatory pressures remain, the combination of technical momentum and strong fundamentals suggests the bullish trend could continue. ******************************************************************************************* La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial. Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información. Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada y las estimaciones no sinónimo ni un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo. Los tipos de interés pueden cambiar. El riesgo político es impredecible. Las acciones de los bancos centrales pueden variar. Las herramientas de las plataformas no garantizan el éxito.

Ethereum gains momentum: SEC green light and JPMorgan’s historic shift By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Ethereum once again takes center stage in financial markets after a week full of positive signals: on one hand, the long-awaited clarification of its regulatory status by the SEC; on the other, the unexpected opening of JPMorgan to cryptocurrencies. All this in a context of growing institutional interest and corporate adoption. Washington clears the path: ETH is a commodity The chairman of the SEC, Paul Atkins, has resolved one of the biggest uncertainties in the crypto ecosystem: Ethereum will not be treated as a security, but as a commodity. In other words, it falls outside the scope of the SEC’s strictest regulations and is placed on the same level as bitcoin from a regulatory standpoint. This shift, which ends years of ambiguity, comes just as Ethereum spot ETFs begin to gain traction. On July 16 alone, these products recorded a net inflow of $726 million, reflecting strong demand from large investors. By way of explanation: Security: A financial instrument representing a share in a company or a credit, such as a stock or bond. It is subject to financial market regulation (such as the SEC in the U.S.), especially regarding transparency, registration, and investor protection. Commodity: A standardized tradable good, often raw, such as oil, gold... or bitcoin, according to regulators. It does not imply any ownership rights in a company and is not subject to the strict regulation applied to securities, but is instead overseen by other agencies like the CFTC. JPMorgan breaks with the past and moves closer to cryptocurrencies Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan and until recently a staunch critic of bitcoin, has made an unexpected move: the bank is studying the possibility of offering loans backed by cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH. The system would allow clients to obtain liquidity in dollars without selling their crypto assets, by depositing them as collateral. The bank would not directly custody these assets but would delegate that function to specialized providers such as Coinbase Custody. Although still in an exploratory phase, this represents a radical change in the relationship between big banking and the crypto world. Trump Media, Western Union and Polymarket stoke the crypto narrative It’s not just banks that are positioning themselves. Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) confirmed a $2 billion investment in bitcoin, making it the fifth publicly traded company with the largest BTC holdings in the world. The company is also preparing the launch of its own token on Truth Social, its social network. Meanwhile, Western Union is exploring the use of stablecoins to improve the efficiency of international transfers, while Polymarket is studying the launch of its own stablecoin or a partnership with Circle (USDC). All this is happening after the recent approval of the GENIUS Act, which for the first time regulates these types of assets in the U.S. ETH/USD analysis: Beginning of a new bullish phase? On the charts, Ethereum has responded to the macro and political environment with sustained recovery since April, entering a partial consolidation phase during several months this year. After holding the support level around $2,579, and since the golden cross on the 10th of this month, it has consolidated a price expansion leading it to test a new consolidation zone around $3,500. ETH now aims for more ambitious levels that could push the commodity towards recent highs of $3,857.67 and potentially break through to $4,000. Currently, the price is within a range it has tested for the fourth time. If it fails to break out, we could see a pullback towards $2,700 or even a return to previous supports at $2,112 and the long-term point of control at $1,586. Key support: $2,579 Immediate resistance: $3,857.67 (recent highs) Target zone: $3,850 – $4,000 if a clean breakout occurs Danger zone: Below $2,880, bearish pressure could return Ethereum ready to make the leap With the SEC’s legal backing, a recent surge in volume, the rise of spot ETFs, and the shift in traditional banking led by JPMorgan, Ethereum is cementing its role as a strategic asset in the new financial era, ready to lead the next phase of crypto adoption. This time, with Wall Street watching closely. Ethereum appears ready to play a leading role in the next stage of integration between traditional and digital finance — and it seems that big banks are betting heavily on ETH. Ethereum is no longer in bitcoin’s shadow. Today, it stands as a key player in bridging traditional finance and the digital future. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.

Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Zuckerberg Takes the Stand This week, Mark Zuckerberg appears as a witness in a civil lawsuit worth $8 billion, in which the governance of Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is under scrutiny following the well-known Cambridge Analytica scandal. The plaintiffs — shareholders of the company — argue that decisions were made without proper board oversight, directly affecting the company’s value and corporate governance. The trial also implicates other high-profile figures, including former executive Sheryl Sandberg, investor Marc Andreessen, Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR) co-founder Peter Thiel, and former Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) chairman Reed Hastings. The central question is whether Meta’s board exercised independent and effective oversight in handling the crisis. Temasek Reshapes Its Strategy in India Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, Temasek, has announced a shift in its investment strategy: fewer deals, but with higher concentration and larger individual commitments. Its current exposure in India exceeds $50 billion, and the fund believes the local market has matured enough to allow for easier entry and exit of capital. Companies that could attract attention include major players such as Reliance Industries (NSE: RELIANCE) and Tata Consultancy Services (NSE: TCS)—key actors in sectors like technology, telecommunications, and financial services. Temasek values not only India’s economic growth, but also the opportunities for scalability and sector diversification. Banking Sector Eyes Mergers In the financial sector, Northern Trust (NASDAQ: NTRS) has drawn market attention amid speculation of a possible approach by BNY Mellon (NYSE: BK). A more flexible regulatory framework from the Federal Reserve has rekindled interest in M&A activity across the U.S. banking industry. Major banks such as JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) are closely monitoring the landscape, while regional players like PNC (NYSE: PNC), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), and Truist (NYSE: TFC) could also engage in strategic transactions aimed at improving efficiency and increasing market share. META in Focus: Technical Analysis After reaching all-time highs in June near $747.90, Meta Platforms shares have slightly corrected, entering a consolidation phase around the 50-day moving average, which now acts as a key technical support level. From a technical standpoint: The price remains above the 50-day moving average since the golden cross in May, preserving the medium-term bullish structure. The RSI stands at 53.42%, indicating a consolidation phase with no clear overbought or oversold signals. Immediate support: $688 (100-day moving average) Key support: $631, just above the point of control around $600 MACD: indicates short-term bearish pressure Resistance: recent highs suggest a potential double top A breakdown below the current support area could increase downside pressure, while a breakout above the all-time high, supported by volume, would resume the bullish trend toward new highs. The ongoing trial may bring short-term volatility, although much of the reputational risk appears to have been priced in by the market. Over the long term, investors continue to assess Meta’s strategic positioning in artificial intelligence, digital advertising, and virtual reality. Conclusion Silicon Valley is navigating a phase of heightened scrutiny—both in courtrooms and financial markets. As tech companies adjust their strategies and international funds recalibrate their positions, sectors like banking are preparing for potential consolidation. In this context, regulatory risk, governance, and strategic efficiency will remain key drivers in the performance of major U.S. corporations in the coming quarters. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.

Nvidia at a Crossroads: Unstoppable Growth, Geopolitical Tensions, and Fears of Talent Drain to China Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Nvidia’s rise as a central player in the artificial intelligence revolution has not been a solitary journey. The company, now valued at over $4 trillion, has built a complex network of suppliers, strategic clients, and industrial partners that fuel its growth. However, this success has also placed the firm under the scrutiny of U.S. authorities, especially amid growing fears of knowledge transfer to China. Washington on Alert: National Security Risks? The U.S. government has begun to closely monitor the hiring of foreign talent in strategic sectors. One of its main concerns is the potential unintentional transfer of advanced military knowledge to China through engineers working at companies like Nvidia. The company’s chips power everything from data centers to autonomous systems, and part of its strength lies in the know-how contributed by its employees—many of whom are of Asian descent—to the development of these key technologies. Although the company benefits enormously from hiring highly skilled engineers—many of them trained in U.S. universities—there is concern in Capitol Hill and the Pentagon that some of these specialists, directly or indirectly, could end up collaborating with China’s People’s Liberation Army. The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Pentagon have increased scrutiny of technical staff with links to China, particularly after identifying several cases of dual-nationality engineers involved in sensitive projects. According to intelligence sources cited by outlets such as Bloomberg and The Washington Post, internal investigations have been launched to review hiring policies at key semiconductor companies. There is concern that without stricter measures, U.S. technological know-how—especially related to dual-use civilian-military GPUs—could leak and accelerate the development of Chinese military capabilities, including AI for warfare. The Ecosystem Powering Nvidia Nvidia does not manufacture its own chips: it relies primarily on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which produces its most advanced units—such as the H100 and the new B200 Blackwell chips—using 3 and 4 nanometer processes. Pressure from the U.S. government to relocate production led TSMC to build a factory in Arizona as a geostrategic response to ensure supply on American soil. Additionally, companies like SK Hynix, Micron, Wistron, and Flex form a key supply chain, providing everything from HBM memory to full system assembly. In parallel, Nvidia has accelerated development of the HBM4 chip amid growing competition from new players such as AMD and AI divisions of Chinese firms. An AI-Powered Empire: Voracious Clients and Strategic Alliances Meanwhile, Nvidia’s rise has been meteoric. From a napkin sketch in 1993 to a market cap surpassing $4 trillion, the company has gone from revolutionizing video games to becoming the heart of artificial intelligence. The key lies in its GPUs (such as the H100 and the new B200), which power language models like ChatGPT and Llama-4. Its supplier network includes TSMC, SK Hynix, Micron, and Wistron, while on the demand side, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Super Micro are among the giants boosting its revenue. In fact, Microsoft alone accounts for nearly 19% of Nvidia’s revenue. Microsoft leads with over $29 billion invested, while Meta allocates more than 9% of Nvidia’s total revenue to training its Llama-4 model. Even Amazon, which develops its own Trainium and Graviton chips, continues to purchase Nvidia GPUs due to high customer demand for cutting-edge products. Now, all hopes are pinned on the new generation of Blackwell chips. The B200 promises performance up to 30 times higher than the H100 in generative AI tasks, positioning it as the new industry standard. But as the market matures, competition, regulation, and geopolitical risks are all intensifying. Technical Analysis of Nvidia (NVDA) Nvidia (NVDA) shares closed yesterday at $164.07, slightly below its all-time high of $167.89. On the daily chart, we observe a consolidation movement after hitting a new record high on Friday. The price remains within an upward channel that began in January 2024. Key Support: $141.75 (above the 50-session moving average), a level defended by buyers during recent pullbacks. Immediate Resistance: $167.89 (all-time high). A breakout with volume could open the door to $180 as the next psychological target. Technical Indicators: The daily RSI stands at 72.95%, reflecting strong overbought conditions and suggesting continued buying interest. The moving averages remain in a wide bullish crossover, with no clear sign of directional reversal. The volume point of control (POC) sits at $118, at the lower end of the consolidation zone. The MACD continues in a bullish crossover pattern, although it’s starting to show a loss of momentum. This could signal that the price push is weakening, indicating a bearish divergence between price and volume. The technical outlook remains bullish, but a short-term pause or sideways movement is not out of the question—especially if regulatory pressure or the next quarterly results fail to meet high market expectations. The key level to watch is around $141 as the structural support to maintain the uptrend. The Future? A Mix of Innovation and Oversight Nvidia embodies the spirit of Silicon Valley, but its privileged position also makes it a central piece on the global geopolitical chessboard. While its technology drives scientific, medical, and consumer advancements, its ties to Asia and openness to foreign talent will continue to spark friction with Washington. The big question is whether it can continue to lead the AI race without destabilizing the delicate balance between national security and technological innovation. Time—and the regulators—will tell. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.

Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Gold posted a slight gain during Monday's Asian session, driven by renewed safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and several key economies, as well as rising geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Russia and Ukraine. The initial uptick in gold was supported by the announcement of 30% tariffs by Donald Trump on Mexico and the European Union, in addition to harsher levies on Japan, South Korea, and Brazil. The prospect of a renewed wave of protectionism has raised concerns over global economic stability, boosting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Added to this is geopolitical tension following reports that Trump is planning to send offensive weapons to Ukraine, potentially escalating the conflict with Russia. These factors have reinforced risk-off sentiment in the markets. However, the strength of the US dollar (DXY +0.1%) and anticipation ahead of the US CPI data, due Tuesday, are capping gold’s upside. Higher-than-expected inflation could reinforce expectations of a tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which would weigh on precious metals. After reaching an intraday high of $3,361.42 per ounce, the Asian market closed lower, leaving gold at $3,356.66 per ounce, a level at which it has since consolidated ahead of the European open. This behavior reflects a technical pause in the initial bullish momentum, with the current point of control aligning with that same price zone, suggesting a temporary neutralization of buying pressure. The RSI at 54% confirms a lack of strength, while the MACD indicates a potential upward directional shift with a signal line crossover and a modestly green histogram to start the week. Moving average crossovers show the 50 and 100 SMAs supporting the bullish push that began last Wednesday. Gold’s next decisive move may depend on upcoming US inflation data and developments in geopolitical tensions. Silver, meanwhile, stood out with a sharp 1.4% surge to $39.493 per ounce, its highest level since 2011, while platinum and copper delivered mixed performances. This week, gold prices could be driven by the confirmation of elevated US inflation data, which would strengthen the metal's role as a hedge against purchasing power loss, especially if doubts persist regarding the Fed’s policy stance. Added to this are rising geopolitical tensions due to Trump’s potential delivery of offensive weapons to Ukraine, further protectionist measures that could worsen the global trade war, and increased risk aversion should equity markets react negatively. In this context, gold is positioned as one of the main beneficiaries amid growing economic and political uncertainty. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success. Regulated status does not guarantee security.

BTCUSD on Alert: Whales Move 80,000 BTC, Shaking the MarketBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTradesThe cryptocurrency market witnessed one of the year’s most puzzling moves this week. Over 80,000 Bitcoins—worth more than $8.6 billion—were transferred from wallets that had been inactive since the early years of the crypto ecosystem. These transfers, originating from addresses linked to 2010 and 2011, sparked a wave of reactions among investors, analysts, and crypto enthusiasts.Fundamental Analysis: Mass Sell-Off or Simple Restructuring?The market's initial response was uncertainty. It’s unusual for wallets from the so-called “Satoshi era” to become active again. However, research led by Arkham Intelligence and other on-chain analysis firms indicates that this was not an immediate sale. The BTC was not sent to exchanges, but to new addresses—possibly with enhanced security (SegWit or multisig technologies)—suggesting an internal reorganization rather than a liquidation.On a macro level, the environment remains favorable for Bitcoin:– Institutional inflows via ETFs have already surpassed $14 billion in 2025.– Broader adoption is expected, driven by proposals such as the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. and clearer regulations in advanced economies.– The market has shown resilience in the face of similar events in the past, reducing the risk of a structural correction.Technical Analysis: Consolidation Zone with Key Resistance at $112,000From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has maintained a strong bullish structure in recent weeks but is currently in a consolidation phase near its all-time highs:• Key support: $103,477, located mid-range of the current consolidation zone. The lower bound sits at $98,209, where the price has reacted positively following the whale movements. The delta pressure zone is positioned at the upper part of the range, near current price levels.• Immediate resistance: $111,978.21, a breakout of which could open the door to a move toward $112,000–$115,000.• Daily RSI: Neutral bias with slight overbought conditions at 54.11%.• Moving averages: The 50- and 100-day EMAs show clear compression—typically a precursor to a breakout—while the 200-day EMA remains well expanded, appearing to support the current consolidation.Volume remains elevated but without speculative spikes, and funding rates in the derivatives market are still positive, suggesting sustained buying interest.Conclusion: A Symbolic Shake-Up Rather Than a ThreatAlthough the whale movements have made headlines and stirred speculation about a possible sell-off, the signs point to a technical update rather than a shift in trend. The market has remained stable over the past 48 hours, with technical indicators and macro fundamentals supporting a short-term neutral-to-bullish outlook.The key will be whether these funds remain dormant or begin to disperse in smaller transactions. For now, the crypto ecosystem has weathered the shake-up without major consequences, reinforcing the growing maturity of an increasingly institutional market.*******************************************************************************************The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success. Regulated status does not guarantee security.

Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Amazon announced on Tuesday an ambitious £40 billion investment in the United Kingdom over the next three years. The goal: to boost technological innovation, expand its logistics network, and strengthen the infrastructure needed for artificial intelligence development across Europe. According to the company, this investment will contribute approximately £38 billion to the UK’s GDP and includes the construction of four new fulfilment centres, delivery stations, and upgrades to Amazon’s more than 100 existing operational sites in the country. Part of this expansion will create 4,000 new jobs in Hull and Northampton, in addition to new roles in the East Midlands and other regions. A significant portion of the plan includes the £8 billion previously announced in September 2024 for AWS data centre development through 2028. This move reinforces Amazon’s commitment to cloud computing leadership and AI-driven services. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer described the announcement as “a huge vote of confidence in the UK as a place to do business,” while Amazon CEO Andy Jassy highlighted the company’s steady growth in the country over the past 27 years. Fundamental Analysis: Strong Results with a Cautious Outlook As of yesterday’s close, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares slipped by –0.62%, ending the session at USD 208.47. However, the Q1 2025 financials reveal a robust growth trajectory: •Revenue: USD 155.7 billion (+9% YoY) •Net Income: USD 17.1 billion (+64%), with EPS at USD 1.59 •AWS: USD 29.3 billion in revenue (+17%), with an operating margin near 40% •Amazon Ads: USD 13.9 billion (+19%), consolidating as a key revenue driver •Operating cash flow: USD 113.9 billion over the last 12 months Despite this strength, the company issued a conservative outlook for Q2, which applied some pressure on markets: operating income is expected between USD 13.0 and 17.5 billion, below analysts’ consensus. Technical Analysis: Solid Support, But Breakout Needed From a technical standpoint, Amazon maintains the bullish structure initiated in November 2023. It is currently trading near the technical resistance range of USD 191–218, a breakout above which could pave the way toward the current high of USD 242.52. •Key support: USD 202.04 •Moving averages: The 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA, and the 100-day MA has remained consolidated above both since the bullish crossover on May 30 •RSI: Neutral (~51%), providing room for further upside after the last failed attempt to break the USD 217.96 resistance A confirmed break above USD 218 could signal a renewed expansion phase. Conversely, a drop below the USD 200 mark would test the bullish channel and could lead to a correction toward the current point of control near USD 187, or even lower toward USD 165, which marks the current technical floor. Conclusion Amazon combines operational strength with a long-term strategic vision in Europe. Its commitment to the UK—through investment in logistics, technology, and sustainability—reinforces its role as a key player in the continent’s digital transformation. In the markets, despite a cautious guidance, Amazon’s fundamentals remain solid, and its stock continues to offer opportunities in a stable growth environment. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.