Technical analysis by ActivTrades about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (10/2/2025)

Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Gold remains close to record highs, supported by rising risk aversion in the markets following the U.S. government shutdown and strong expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement further interest rate cuts in October. The precious metal is trading at $3,864.63 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $3,895.33 in the previous session, while December futures stand at $3,889.65, down 0.2%. The lack of consensus in Congress has led to a halt in much of the federal operations and delayed the release of key labor data, such as nonfarm payrolls. This information gap fuels uncertainty and strengthens gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Moreover, recent private labor market data showed a cooling trend, reinforcing bets that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points this month. The CME FedWatch places the probability of this move at 97%. However, inflation remains a source of pressure. The PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, continues to stay above the 2% target, which could limit the magnitude of future rate cuts. Gold Technical Analysis (Ticker AT:GOLD) From a technical perspective, gold maintains a clear uptrend, consolidating above the $3,632–$3,790 range, having touched a record high of $3,895.14 in yesterday’s session. The support of the latest upward move lies at $3,721.87, where the 50-period moving average on the daily chart passes. On the upside, the key resistance remains at the psychological level of $3,900. A daily close above this level could open the door to $3,950, while surpassing $4,000 would mark a historic milestone, potentially attracting new buying interest. Moving average crossovers indicate a clear bullish bias. The RSI currently shows strong overbought conditions at 81.42%. The MACD indicates a bullish bias with both averages above the green histogram, although without a clear increase in trading volume. Additionally, the ActivTrades US Market Pulse shows a notable shift toward a neutral bias in the direction of Risk-On, which would imply lower safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar relative to yields, with major indices at continued record highs. This could lead investors to rotate positions from precious metals to industrial metals such as copper or platinum, which tend to benefit from stronger economic activity. The bullish bias remains as long as the price stays above $3,780, with investors favoring accumulation on dips amid U.S. political uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and expectations of lower rates. If this upward trend fails to hold, we could see a test of the identified support levels. U.S. Shutdown – Market Insight Gold today reflects not only the tension from the U.S. government shutdown but also the transition to a looser monetary cycle. Safe-haven demand coexists with expectations of lower rates, a combination that strengthens the precious metal. However, if the global market shifts toward a Risk-On scenario, capital could rotate into higher-yielding assets, temporarily reducing gold demand. For investors, the takeaway is clear: gold remains a strategic pillar in diversified portfolios, but its future performance will depend on whether fear or risk appetite prevails in the markets. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.