Technical analysis by ActivTrades about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (9/4/2025)

By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Gold (Ticker AT: GOLD) is once again at the center of financial debate. After years of solid gains and an undisputed role as a safe haven, a little-explored factor could trigger an unprecedented bull cycle: the potential revaluation of the United States’ official gold reserves. The Hidden Catalyst The United States holds 261.5 million troy ounces in official reserves, valued on the books at only $42.22 per ounce, or roughly $11 billion in total. However, the current gold price hovers around $3,500 per ounce, revealing a vast gap between accounting value and market reality. Some lawmakers, including Senator Cynthia Lummis, have proposed updating these reserves to market prices. The impact would be colossal: such an adjustment would represent about 3% of U.S. GDP, potentially used to reduce the deficit, lower public debt, or create a strategic fund tied to new reserves in bitcoin. Global Implications A revaluation of this magnitude would not only reinforce gold’s monetary role but also free resources to alleviate deficit pressures and debt interest obligations. At the same time, it could have an inflationary side effect, acting as an indirect monetary injection that weakens the dollar against gold and other currencies. If realized, this move could influence other central banks, creating a chain reaction with greater revaluation of global reserves and increased demand for gold as a strategic asset. Central banks’ interest already supports this thesis: in 2024, net purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes of gold for the third consecutive year, and in 2025 buying momentum remains high. This trend validates gold’s role as a strategic monetary asset and increases pressure to adjust its official valuation. Investor Perspective A potential official revaluation of U.S. reserves could become one of the largest bullish catalysts in decades, solidifying gold as a hedge against U.S. fiscal risk, the erosion of the dollar as a global reserve currency, and geopolitical tensions. For investors, maintaining strategic exposure to the precious metal appears more relevant than ever. This can be achieved through physical gold, gold-backed ETFs, gold mining stocks, or hybrid instruments such as gold loans with additional yield. The Gold Zapatero Sold at a Loss During José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s government, the Bank of Spain carried out one of the largest reductions in gold reserves in recent history. Between 2005 and 2007, it sold around 242 tonnes, nearly half of the national stock, which fell from 523 tonnes to just 282 tonnes. In 2007 alone, more than 130 tonnes were sold under European central bank agreements aimed at diversifying assets and investing in sovereign debt. Since then, Spain’s gold position has remained virtually unchanged at around 281 tonnes, with no significant purchases, unlike other central banks that have increased their reserves in recent years. At today’s price of $3,500 per ounce, Spain’s current gold reserves (281 t) would be worth approximately $31.6 billion. In contrast, the 242 tonnes sold under Zapatero fetched only ~$3.5 billion, meaning those reserves would now be worth ~$27.2 billion, more than seven times the sale price at the time. Technical Analysis of Gold (Ticker AT: GOLD) Gold cash is currently trading slightly above $3,500 per ounce, consolidating after the strong bullish surge in August. The technical structure shows a market still dominated by buyers, although signs of overextension and sideways movement are emerging. The price has lost the 50-day moving average support and currently rests weakly above the 100-day average. Key Levels Immediate Resistance: $3,578.37 – a psychological zone coinciding with recent highs and selling pressure. Next Resistance: $3,600 – round number and likely target if bullish momentum continues. Immediate Support: $3,510 – a short-term reference; a break could trigger a deeper correction. Relevant Support: $3,499.57 – confluence zone from the last impulse, acting as strong support for the recent bullish move. Technical Indicators RSI: ~39.41%, in oversold territory, suggesting potential price recovery. MACD: bearish signal, with a negative histogram reflecting fatigue in the bullish impulse. Moving Averages: price comfortably above the 50-day average, maintaining the underlying bullish trend. Point of Control (POC): $4,777.97 in the previous accumulation zone. Probable Scenarios The technical bias remains bullish as long as gold holds relevant support and stays above the POC. However, oversold conditions increase the likelihood of temporary sideways consolidation to prepare for new highs. A drop below $3,457 would test the 200-day moving average and challenge the current trend, though institutional buyers may use the $3,510 support area to reposition. The recent surge has pushed prices above a long-term range recently broken with some force, suggesting a potential revisit of supporting trend lines to retest and surpass current highs. Planned Fiat Devaluation and Return to the Gold Standard? Gold sits at an inflection point where structural and technical forces converge. On one hand, the hypothesis of an official revaluation of U.S. reserves introduces a potentially transformative factor that could start a broad new bull cycle. The market shows a clear underlying positive trend with necessary consolidation phases. For institutions, gold is gaining appeal as a hedge against U.S. fiscal risk, dollar pressure, and uncertainty. In the short term, the market is defending supports and seeking to recover above the 50-day moving average. Long-term institutional accumulation and global monetary policy reinforce the thesis that gold will continue playing a central role in the international financial architecture—not just as a safe haven, but as a backbone of the future monetary system. Europe, and particularly Spain, will need to take measures to position its reserves strategically in line with this trend. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). 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