Technical analysis by ActivTrades about Symbol NVDAX on 9/9/2025

By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades The debate over Western leadership in artificial intelligence once again centers on Washington. The new AI GAIN Act, integrated as part of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), establishes that any chip with performance above 4,800 TOPS will require an export license. The measure also stipulates that semiconductor manufacturers must prioritize deliveries to U.S. companies before exporting advanced chips abroad. Framed as a strategy to reinforce national security and curb China, the legislation has sparked alarm across the industry. In short: if U.S. companies are waiting for chips, China and other countries move to the back of the line. Nvidia raises the alarm Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA.O), the undisputed leader in GPUs for AI, has warned that the law would stifle global competitiveness and slow innovation in artificial intelligence. According to the company, there is currently no domestic supply shortage that justifies restricting access for foreign clients. The criticism recalls the controversial AI Diffusion Rule, pushed by the Biden administration in early 2025 and eventually revoked before coming into force. At the time, restrictions also aimed to control the export of chips and AI models but were discarded for being excessively rigid. Impact on the semiconductor sector The reach of the AI GAIN Act goes beyond Nvidia: •AMD, with its growing exposure to AI accelerators, faces similar risks in its international operations. •Intel, with a stronger domestic presence, may be less affected, as its profile aligns with the strategic goal of boosting local production. •Broadcom and Qualcomm, highly dependent on global client networks, would face tighter constraints on commercial flexibility. The most likely outcome is a double-edged sword: ensuring the U.S. always has priority in the supply chain, but at the cost of undermining the global business model that sustains sector margins. In short: the risk is that the cure ends up being worse than the disease, slowing global competition. Technical analysis of Nvidia Nvidia’s stock remains close to record highs after holding above USD 164 yesterday and closing at USD 168.31. Price action shows the loss of the 50-day moving average and movement toward the 100-day. A clear trend reversal has not yet materialized, even though the RSI is in oversold territory at 39.44, while the MACD is shifting into negative territory, crossing into the lower part of the histogram. Another relevant factor is a price bell that has moved strongly between USD 152.89 and USD 126.84, with its Point of Control (POC) around USD 138.17, slightly below the accumulation zone that fueled the rally to all-time highs. The ActivTrades US Market Pulse currently signals Extreme Risk-On conditions in U.S. markets, highlighting a phase of exuberance on Wall Street where macro or geopolitical risks seem ignored. This new law could act as a catalyst for sector pullbacks. If the current support at USD 164.58 and the next level at USD 152.89 fail, a return to the POC would be likely. On the other hand, if prices hold and consolidate, a new rally toward highs is possible. Such regulatory moves can trigger trend shifts, but if the market absorbs them, upside momentum could resume. From a wave structure perspective, bullish waves remain intact, suggesting this may be only a temporary pause. •Resistances: All-time high at USD 184.48 •Supports: 164.58, 152.89, and POC at 138.17 •Indicators: RSI at 39.44, signaling oversold and potential consolidation •MACD: Negative territory •Moving averages (50/100/200): No trend change yet, though the 50-day is approaching the 100-day •ActivTrades US Market Pulse: Extreme Risk-On Conclusion: Trump vs. AI The Trump administration’s protectionist measures aim to secure national access to silicon and reduce dependence on foreign suppliers, in order to safeguard U.S. leadership in AI. However, Nvidia’s warnings—echoed by the broader sector—underscore fears that overregulation could erode the international competitiveness of American tech giants, especially against China and other emerging innovation hubs. In this race for AI dominance, building walls may end up slowing down your own runners. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. 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