AAPLX

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A very strong August for AAPL. My previous view had been for price to drift lower to $200 support over the quiet summer weeks. I was wrong. Strong bullish reversal on the monthly chart. Does it have what it takes to climb back to previous highs and beyond? Will watch September price action.

September hasn’t been Apple’s friend historically — average return is around –4.5% and over the last 5 years we’ve seen more red than green. Institutions usually use this month to rebalance into Q4, which can weigh on tech. This year we’ve also got the Sept 9 “Awe Dropping” event (iPhone 17 lineup, Apple Watch updates, maybe AirPods). That’s a clear catalyst, but sometimes it’s “buy the rumor, sell the news.” Here’s how I’m looking at it: ⬆Bull Scenario (Breakout) If Apple clears 234 with volume and holds above, bulls could push it higher. Clean breakout = momentum continuation 🚀. 🔄 Sideways Scenario (Chop) Apple tags 234, stalls, and just chops. No clear trend, just range trading while the market waits for a catalyst . 📉 Bear Scenario (Double Top / Puts) Apple rejects at 234, goes sideways, then dumps. That would set up a **double top** and open downside risk back toward 219 . For me → last week wasn’t great P\&L-wise, so I’m focusing on patience this month. Not trying to predict which path plays out, just mapping the if/then so I’m ready. 👉 What’s your bias going into September?

Apple, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and other varieties of related services. It operates through the following geographical segments: Americas, Europe, Greater China, Japan, and Rest of Asia Pacific. The Americas segment includes North and South America. The Europe segment consists of European countries, as well as India, the Middle East, and Africa. The Greater China segment comprises China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The Rest of Asia Pacific segment includes Australia and Asian countries. Its products and services include iPhone, Mac, iPad, AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, AppleCare, iCloud, digital content stores, streaming, and licensing services. The company was founded by Steven Paul Jobs, Ronald Gerald Wayne, and Stephen G. Wozniak in April 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, CA.

AAPL Setup: Bias: Bullish → Needs confirmation Watching price action after open (first 15m candle) CALL Setup Break & Hold Above: 233.41 (PDH) TP1: 234.14 SL: 232.40 Additional Confirmation: 9 & 21 EMAs stays above 50 EMA No-Trade Zone: Between 232.76 (PMH) and 231.26 (PML) Expect chop / fakeouts here — wait for clean break & retest PUT Setup Break & Close Below: 231.26 (PML) TP: 230.59 (200 EMA) SL: 231.60 Additional Confirmation: 9/21 cross back below 50 EMA Wait for structure. First 15m sets tone.

On the daily chart, AAPL is fluctuating upward. Currently, we can pay attention to the resistance near 249.7 above. This position is a short-selling position for a potential bearish bat pattern. At the same time, this position is in the previous supply area.

APPLE AAPL Forgive the complexity & noise of the model, nevertheless there are important dates and levels not to be ignored. The cycle completion for APPLE is August 2027 at latest - price should be in 344s then. PRIOR TO this we have Jan 2026 for either 286s or low 120s, my bias is low 120s. Then a rally to 230s October 2026.

The Good Recovery off lows: That sharp reversal from ~$165 back above $230 shows strong buyer support. The +36% bounce (highlighted on chart) is impressive. Trend alignment: Shorter EMAs are stacked above longer ones again, suggesting bullish momentum is back. Volume: Decent participation on the rebound, not a weak drift higher. The Bad Heavy resistance overhead: $235–$240 is a supply zone. Price has stalled there multiple times, and you can see past rejection points at 235, 260. This area must be cleared for continuation. Lower high risk: Unless AAPL breaks above $260, it could be setting up a “lower high” compared to past peaks (Feb & July 2024). Valuation risk: Apple isn’t cheap right now. Macro risk (Fed cuts, consumer spending slowdown, China supply chain issues) could make it more vulnerable than Nvidia/semis. The Ugly Previous deep drawdowns: AAPL saw nearly a -36% correction not long ago. That’s a reminder this is not a low-risk hold anymore. One earnings miss or weak iPhone cycle could re-trigger that. Crowded trade: Everyone owns Apple. Hedge funds, ETFs, retail. If big money rotates out, selling pressure is brutal. Cost vs. Benefit Benefit: If Apple breaks $240 convincingly, next stop is likely $260 (prior high). That’s ~12% upside. Cost: If it fails here and rolls over, you could be looking at a drop back to $215 (near 50-day/200-day confluence) or even $200 (~15% downside).

APPLE is pulling back to the 13 EMA, if it holds there around 232.51, could be a good Call entry to the heavy resistance area for a T/P around 234.21. Place S/L right underneath the EMA for a tight risk management or at 231.60 at PMH. APPLE has been respecting the 9 and 13 EMA.If APPL breaks pass 232.51, the next entry is around 232.32 near the 21 EMA. It must test and hold before entering with Volume. If it closes below that level, it would be a time to wait and see. Don't force what's not there. Be patient and bored and allow the trade to come to you.

Hello, Ayrfolio trade ideas are based on weekly charts and momentum, so remember to be patient! No day trades here unless the stock soars up intraday. Today we’re covering: COMPANY: Apple Inc STOCK SYMBOL: AAPL POSITION: Long TP1 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1.59 TP2 Risk-Reward Ratio: 3.18 Stop Loss: must wait AFTER daily candle closes to exit trade (regular candle, NOT Heiken Ashi) Ultimate Stop Loss: can exit IMMEDIATELY if price reaches this level during any trading hours EXPLANATION: Weekly momentum increased and confirmed on Monday 8/11/25 at $231.59/share. Although the stop losses are listed on the chart, if momentum has been lost then we can exit before the price reaches the stop loss. DISCLAIMER: Please do your own due diligence before making any decisions. P.S. - Stocks can soar. YOU can soar. Soaring is possible! -Ayrfolio