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The evolution of gold prices by the end of 2025 will largely depend on the monetary policy decisions taken by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). After a year marked by a weaker dollar and falling rates that supported the precious metal, market attention is now focused on the next three key Fed meetings: September 17, October 29, and December 10. Five main scenarios can be considered, each with distinct implications for the trend of gold. 1.No Pivot: Bearish Scenario for Gold In this first case, the Fed keeps its policy rates unchanged throughout 2025. This choice would stem from inflation returning toward 3%, prompting Powell and the FOMC members to remain restrictive. The absence of a pivot would support bond yields and the US dollar on the FX market. Historically, both factors exert downward pressure on gold. Thus, this scenario would imply a bearish trend for the metal, with most of this year’s gains having been fueled by the dollar’s decline. 2.Technical Pivot Linked to the Labor Market: Moderate Support The second case corresponds to a single rate cut in September or October, driven by labor market weakness. This would not constitute a true easing cycle, since inflation would remain too high to justify a series of cuts. The impact on gold would be relatively neutral to slightly bullish. On one hand, a stable dollar would limit gold’s upside. On the other, persistent concerns about growth and employment would provide some support. This scenario would result in a trendless evolution with phases of volatility. 3.Real and Healthy Pivot: Measured Increase A third scenario assumes the Fed engages in a true pivot from September or October, initiating a series of rate cuts. This decision would be enabled by confirmed disinflation around 2%, combined with a controlled labor market. In this context, the impact would be bullish but measured. Falling rates and a weaker dollar would support gold, but a stable labor market would push flows toward risk assets such as equities, limiting the extent of gold’s rally. 4.Unhealthy Pivot: Strong Rise in Gold A more critical scenario would see the Fed forced into a pivot by labor market deterioration, despite inflation persisting around 3%. Such cuts would be perceived as defensive, increasing risk aversion. In this environment, gold would benefit massively: weaker dollar, lower yields, and, above all, safe-haven demand amid rising unemployment. The impact on gold would be strongly bullish. 5.The “Fed Put”: Explosive Scenario for Gold Finally, the extreme case corresponds to an emergency Fed intervention. Faced with soaring unemployment and a confirmed recession in the US, the central bank would launch massive easing, combining rapid and steep rate cuts. This situation would trigger a sharp fall in the dollar and bond yields. Gold, the ultimate safe haven, would then experience a spectacular surge to new all-time highs. The scale of the move would be amplified by the recessionary backdrop, pushing investors away from risk assets. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

While September is the worst month in terms of performance statistics for the S&P 500 index, and BTC has been developing a positive correlation with the S&P 500, can the price of bitcoin avoid a correction scenario this September 2025? And in the event that this September turns out to be corrective for BTC, could this open the door for a year-end rebound starting in October, which benefits from much stronger seasonality? In this article, we will address these two questions. 1.September is the weakest month for the S&P 500 in terms of seasonality, and the same applies to bitcoin I invite you first to revisit our analysis of S&P 500 seasonality by clicking on the performance table below: September is therefore the worst month for the S&P 500 in terms of seasonality, and investors fear a decline in the US stock market this September, especially as fundamental challenges are numerous (the Fed meeting on Wednesday, September 17) and the S&P 500 is as expensive as it was at the end of 2021 in terms of valuation. Is this bearish consensus a trap? At first glance, no, because September has also been the month with the worst average performance and the worst median performance for bitcoin since 2009. The table below, sourced from Coinglass, shows the month-by-month seasonality of bitcoin since 2013: 2.But in the bitcoin bull cycle that began in autumn 2022, linked to the 2024 halving, September was not negative and even marked the start of a year-end bullish impulse There are nevertheless reasons to hope that September 2025—perhaps stormy in its first part—could end on a more favorable note. Moreover, when looking at September 2023 and September 2024 (the Septembers of our cycle, the one that began in autumn 2022 after the end of the bear market), we can see that they triggered (from the second half of the month) a strong bullish impulse. The chart below shows bitcoin’s weekly candlesticks since the start of the current cycle, which began in autumn 2022. Ultimately, the final trend of bitcoin this September 2025 will not be determined by cyclical or chart analysis, but by the monetary policy decision that the Fed will unveil on Wednesday, September 17. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

The FED has not cut the federal funds rate since the end of 2024. Let's take a look at the 3 possible scenarios for the Fed funds rate between now and the end of the year, and the impact on the stock market for equities, bonds, the US dollar and Bitcoin. The table below summarizes the 3 possible scenarios and their possible impact on the stock market. 1) No FED pivot for the whole of 2025 (the most bearish case for risky assets on the stock market) In this case, the FED would keep rates unchanged for the whole of 2025 in order to continue the fight against inflation. The market would find itself trapped by its expectations, as it anticipates an easing by the end of the year. On the stock market, this would trigger a major correction in the S&P 500, currently valued at levels close to its 2021 highs. Two-year interest rates would rebound, as would long-term bond yields, leading to increased pressure on US government debt and lower bond prices. The US dollar is expected to rebound strongly, driven by a technical bullish pattern, reinforcing its attractiveness on the foreign exchange market. Finally, in the crypto-currencies, a sustained bear market would set in, with an estimated average duration of thirteen months (the famous bear market of BTC's 4-year cycle), marking a major reversal for Bitcoin and altcoins. 2) A “technical” pivot by the FED (1 isolated rate cut) This intermediate scenario would correspond to a cut in key rates as early as September or October 2025, following the arrival of Stephen Miran on the FOMC. However, this cut would remain isolated and would not mark the start of a prolonged rate-cutting cycle, as inflation would still be too high. On the equity markets, this would translate into a consolidation phase: the S&P 500 would move in a corridor between 5800 points and its recent record highs. Two-year yields would stabilize at around 4%, hovering around their 200-day moving average, with a slight rise in bond prices, especially in the event of a weak job market. The US dollar would also stabilize, with a moderate appreciation on the foreign exchange market. As for crypto-currencies, the impact would be neutral to slightly bullish, with the possibility of a final peak before the next bear market settles in, linked to the four-year cycle seen on Bitcoin. 3) A “real” FED pivot (several rate cuts between now and the end of December 2025) In the case of a real monetary pivot, the FED would cut its key rate in September, followed by two further cuts before the end of the year. This scenario would have a markedly positive impact on equity markets, with the S&P 500 possibly reaching the 6700-point target. On the rates side, this would lead to a marked downtrend, with new lows for short- and long-term yields, while bond prices would start to rise sharply again. The US dollar would enter a prolonged downtrend, with a target of 95 points for the DXY index. Last but not least, crypto-currencies are set to benefit from this accommodating climate: Bitcoin and altcoins are likely to see their prices rise, marking the end of a bullish cycle at the end of the year. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

1) Institutional investors have driven ETH/USD higher since the start of the summer via US spot ETFs The price of ETH/USD has more than doubled since the start of the summer on the crypto-currency market, in a phase of powerful relative catch-up with the price of bitcoin and an Ether token that is now close to its all-time record. This catch-up phase of the Ether token relative to BTC has been forged on a very healthy fundamental factor: institutional demand. In fact, it is institutional investors who have driven this sharp rise in the price of Ether, with an explosion in inflows to US spot ETFs on Ethereum. Indeed, it's a given that the bulk of demand via BTC and ETH spot ETFs comes from institutional investors. Ethereum's underlying uptrend is therefore based on a sound fundamental foundation. The table below, taken from the Coinglass website, shows inflows and outflows on US spot ETFs on ETH 2) The Ether token is outperforming the bitcoin price, as shown by the technical analysis of the ETH/BTC ratio, and this should continue until the end of the cycle The second aspect in Ethereum's favor is the sequence of outperformance against ETH on BTC. This is the lesson of the bullish message from technical analysis applied to the ETH/BTC ratio. The latter has turned upwards from a major support level, and the technical upside potential remains significant for the coming months. The chart below shows weekly Japanese candlesticks for the ratio between Ethereum and Bitcoin 3) ETH/USD will pause below its all-time high of $4900 (that of the previous cycle), but should be able to move beyond it by the end of the cycle The price of ETH/USD has reached its all-time high of $4850 in autumn 2021, the peak of the previous cycle. It's only logical that the market should start to stall and retrace to consolidate the rise since early summer. The market could develop a range phase between support at $4,000 and resistance at $4,850, before later being able to resume its fundamental uptrend. Historically, the Ether token cycle ends two to three weeks after the end of the BTC bull cycle, so it's likely that ETH/USD will be able to exceed its all-time high in the fourth quarter of this year 2025. The chart below outlines theoretical targets if and only if the all-time high of $4850 is broken by the market. Invalidation if major support at $4,000 is broken. The chart below shows weekly Japanese candlesticks for the ETH/USD rate DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

Since the publication of the latest report on the US labor market (the NFP report), the probability of the Federal Reserve (FED) resuming the cut in the federal funds rate has changed significantly. The FED rate has been stable since the end of 2024, and the implied probability (see CME FED Watch tool below) of a 0.25% rate cut on Wednesday September 17 exceeds 90%. Is this a trap? Is the market too optimistic? 1) US economy, macro-check: is a rate cut on Wednesday September 17 credible in terms of growth, employment and inflation? Is a rate cut in September fundamentally credible? The US macro-economic situation is complex, with disinflation on hold against a backdrop of tariffs, but a labor market that is beginning to show signs of weakness. Jerome Powell always defended the monetary status quo until he had confirmation that the underlying PCE inflation rate had moved towards 2%. Tariffs don't seem to be causing a second wave of inflation, but they are putting disinflation on pause, while degrading the labor market with the number of unemployed at its highest level since the year 2021. This is probably why a rate cut could take place on Wednesday September 17. 2) Is a rate cut on Wednesday September 17 credible from the point of view of the balance of power between the 12 voting members of the FOMC? Let's keep in mind that a rate cut is possible if and only if 7 FOMC members (out of 12) vote in favor of a rate cut. Jerome Powell has no veto power, and he has a single vote like the others. The arrival of Stephen Miran will add another vote for the rate-cutting camp, but the neutral FOMC members will still have to be convinced. The current balance of power among the FOMC's 12 voting members does not yet guarantee a rate cut on September 17. 3) The U.S. 2-year bond yield remains the supreme judge of the market, and the scenario of a rate cut in September is credible as long as this bond yield remains below its 200-day moving average It is the U.S. 2-year bond yield that best represents the likelihood of the FED taking action on its interest rate. As long as it remains below its 200-day moving average, the scenario of a rate cut on Wednesday September 17 is credible. Ultimately, much will depend on the next report on the US labour market, the NFP report at the beginning of September. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

The bitcoin price continues to set new all-time highs this August 2025, respecting its historical seasonality which has always seen a bullish August in the fourth year of the 4-year cycle, i.e. the year following the last halving, i.e. this year 2025. I invite you to reread our analysis from the beginning of August on this seasonal aspect of the bitcoin price by clicking on the table below. In this new analysis on the bitcoin price, I'm going to review different approaches to considering a theoretical price target for BTC for the beginning of September. I'm Vincent Ganne, feel free to follow the Swissquote account on TradingView where I offer here a daily market view with a technical and fundamental approach. 1) The bitcoin price has confirmed the bullish technical breakout of a trendline that joins the highs of the two previous cycles The month of August of the last year of the 4-year cycle therefore has an average bullish performance. This favourable statistic is confirmed this August 2025 by a strong chart signal. This is the bullish technical break of the trend line that joins the weekly closing price at the top of the two previous cycles. This technical signal is in line with seasonality and seems to indicate that the bitcoin price has entered its final bullish phase of the cycle, the cycle linked to the spring 2024 halving. 2) In terms of calendar repetition, the average of the three previous cycles gives a technical price target of $130K for the beginning of September This second chart below represents in black the curve of the average of the three previous cycles (the cycles linked to the halvings of the years 2012, 2016 and 2020). If the bitcoin price aligns with this average, then August should see a bullish performance, with a technical target of around 130,000 US dollars for the beginning of September. The source of this chart is shown at the top of the chart. 3) Chartist analysis of the bitcoin price reveals a theoretical price target of between US$127,000 and US$135,000 for early September The third chart in this analysis highlights the configuration that has been acting as the dominant technical factor in the bitcoin price since July. This is a bullish flag formation, with a perfect pullback to $112K at the end of July. The theoretical bullish targets are the same as those I've been describing for several weeks, i.e. an area between $127,000 and $135,000. 4) The Bitcoin rainbow price chart indicator reveals a theoretical technical target around $135,000 for the beginning of September To conclude this analysis, I'd like to present you with the Bitcoin rainbow price chart indicator, whose current oscillation band reveals a high around $135,000 for the end of August. The combination of these 4 approaches makes a target of 130,000 US dollars this August credible, with a technical threshold of invalidation below support at 112,000 US dollars. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

The underlying bullish trend in the price of Bitcoin remains intact despite uncertainty regarding the likelihood of a US Federal Funds rate cut at the next monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 17. The bullish cycle linked to the 2024 halving continues, and BTC/USD is still under the technical influence of the bullish breakout in early July from a bull flag continuation pattern. What can we now expect from August from a technical standpoint for Bitcoin and altcoin prices? 1.August seasonality is favorable for BTC only in the final year of the 4-year cycle, and 2025 is the final year of the current cycle August does not generally show strong average or median performance for BTC from a statistical seasonality perspective. However, when examining performance based on the year within Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle, we see that every final year of the cycle has featured a bullish August. This does not mean the market will rise steadily from August 1 to 31, but statistically, the end-of-month performance should be positive. 2.The positive correlation between Bitcoin’s price and global M2 liquidity suggests a favorable trend in August Another factor supporting a bullish August is the positive correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the projected global M2 liquidity 12 weeks ahead. This correlation has worked well throughout the current cycle and suggests August will be bullish — though caution is warranted, as a correction is expected in September according to this approach. 3.From a chart analysis perspective, Bitcoin remains under the bullish influence of a bull flag continuation pattern Bitcoin broke out to the upside from a bullish flag in early July, and this setup remains the dominant technical factor. The theoretical target of this pattern is $130,000, with an invalidation level below $110,000. 4.Altcoins are trending toward the previous cycle’s record highs from late 2021 The chart below shows the underlying trend in altcoins, excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins. Chart analysis also conveys a bullish message for this altcoin index in August. The invalidation level is below the $690B support. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

Two weeks ago, I shared a technical analysis of the S&P 500 across all timeframes. This analysis outlines price targets for the end of 2025 based on technical and fundamental criteria. You can revisit this analysis by clicking the first chart below. WARNING: A major bullish target I previously mentioned is close to being reached—6,475 points on the S&P 500 futures contract. The market may soon enter a consolidation phase. Given this week's packed fundamentals, it's wise to start locking in your gains by moving up your stop-loss levels—especially as the S&P 500 has now returned to its end-2021 valuation peak. Click on the table below to access details on this week's significant fundamental developments: 1.Caution: The S&P 500 has reached its end-2021 valuation record! While technical market analysis is important, valuation metrics are even more so. The S&P 500 has just reached its previous valuation peak from the end of 2021—historically the starting point of the 2022 bear market. While the current macro context is different, this level could trigger a short-term market pause. Chart showing S&P 500 valuation via the CAPE Ratio (Shiller PE): 2.S&P 500 seasonality is weaker in August and bearish in September Another cautionary factor is seasonality. A statistical look at average S&P 500 performance by month highlights a weaker period in August and a typically negative one in September. In summary, technical, fundamental, and seasonal analysis all point to securing gains as we approach August/September—without questioning the underlying long-term uptrend. Chart showing S&P 500 seasonality since 1960: DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.

الأسبوع الأخیر من یولیو سیکون حاسماً لأسواق المال. من الأربعاء 30 یولیو إلى الجمعة 1 أغسطس، تتکثف جمیع العوامل الأساسیة المؤثرة فی السوق فی فترة قصیرة لا تتعدى ثلاثة أیام. إما أن یواصل السوق الأمریکی زخمه الصاعد، أو یدخل فی مرحلة تصحیح فنی ضروری. ثلاثة أیام فقط، لا أکثر. العوامل المؤثرة متشابکة إلى درجة أنها قد تزعزع ثقة حتى المستثمرین المخضرمین. إنه اختبار ضغط شامل – اقتصادی، نقدی، وجیوسیاسی. لماذا هذا الأسبوع مهم بهذا الشکل؟ لأنه یجمع کل المحرکات الأساسیة فی وقت متقارب للغایة: الموعد النهائی للمفاوضات التجاریة مع الشرکاء، قرار الفیدرالی الأمریکی بشأن السیاسة النقدیة، نتائج شرکات GAFAM، بیانات التضخم (PCE)، تقریر الوظائف (NFP)، الناتج المحلی الإجمالی للربع الثانی، ومؤشرات فنیة رئیسیة – وذلک قبیل فترة موسمیة ضعیفة عادةً فی أغسطس وسبتمبر. 1) الأربعاء 30 یولیو – لحظة الحقیقة النقدیة یبدأ الأسبوع بحدث بالغ الأهمیة: اجتماع الاحتیاطی الفیدرالی. القضیة لیست فقط مستوى الفائدة، بل التوجیه المستقبلی. إذا أشار الفیدرالی إلى تخفیضات محتملة فی أواخر 2025، فإن شهیة المخاطرة قد تعود بقوة. أما إذا تباطأ، فإن مؤشر S&P 500—الذی بلغ مستویات تقییم نهایة 2021—قد یتعرض لتصحیح. بالتوازی، تُنشر نتائج الربع الثانی لشرکات GAFAM. إذا خیبت التوقعات، فإن القطاع التکنولوجی بأکمله (یشکل 35% من S&P 500) قد یُضعف السوق بالکامل. 2) الخمیس 31 یولیو – التضخم یحدد الاتجاه تُعلن بیانات التضخم الأساسی PCE، وهو المعیار المفضل للفیدرالی. إذا شهدت الأسعار ارتفاعاً، قد یتلاشى سیناریو خفض الفائدة فی الخریف. إلى جانب ذلک، تصدر تقدیرات الناتج المحلی الإجمالی المحدثة ونتائج شرکات التکنولوجیا الکبرى. یوم محوری لمؤشر S&P 500. 3) الجمعة 1 أغسطس – الحکم: الوظائف والتجارة تقریر NFP والموعد النهائی للمفاوضات التجاریة یشکلان لحظة حاسمة. إذا جاءت بیانات الوظائف ضعیفة، قد تعود مخاوف الرکود. وإذا جاءت قویة، قد یؤجل الفیدرالی تحوّله النقدی. الملف التجاری بدوره حساس: انتهاء المهلة فی 1 أغسطس قد یزید من التقلبات. ولا ننسى أن الموعد النهائی مع الصین یحلّ یوم الثلاثاء 12 أغسطس. الخلاصة: لا مکان لــ “TACO” لا مجال للخطأ. هذه المرة، لا یوجد “TACO” (ترامب یتراجع دائماً). السوق علیه أن یثبت جدارته على کل الأصعدة. وإلا، فإن التقییمات المفرطة لن تجد أی حمایة. أسبوع 30 یولیو هو اختبار حقیقی للأساسیات، والعقوبة ستکون فوریة. تنویه: هذا المحتوى مخصص للأفراد الذین لدیهم درایة بالأسواق والأدوات المالیة وهو مخصص لأغراض المعلومات فقط. الفکرة المعروضة (بما فی ذلک تعلیقات السوق وبیانات السوق وملاحظاته) لیست نتاج عمل أی قسم أبحاث تابع لسویسکوت أو الشرکات التابعة لها. تهدف هذه المادة إلى تسلیط الضوء على حرکة السوق ولا تشکل نصیحة استثماریة أو قانونیة أو ضریبیة. إذا کنت مستثمر تجزئة أو تفتقر إلى الخبرة فی تداول المنتجات المالیة المعقدة، فمن المستحسن طلب المشورة المهنیة من مستشار مرخص قبل اتخاذ أی قرارات مالیة. لا یهدف هذا المحتوى إلى التلاعب بالسوق أو التشجیع على أی سلوک مالی محدد. لا تقدم Swissquote أی تعهد أو ضمان فیما یتعلق بجودة هذا المحتوى أو اکتماله أو دقته أو شمولیته أو عدم انتهاکه. الآراء المعبر عنها هی آراء المستشار ویتم تقدیمها لأغراض تعلیمیة فقط. لا ینبغی تفسیر أی معلومات مقدمة تتعلق بمنتج أو سوق على أنها توصیة باستراتیجیة أو صفقة استثماریة. الأداء السابق لیس ضماناً للنتائج المستقبلیة. لا تتحمل سویسکوت وموظفیها وممثلیها بأی حال من الأحوال المسؤولیة عن أی أضرار أو خسائر تنشأ بشکل مباشر أو غیر مباشر عن القرارات التی یتم اتخاذها على أساس هذا المحتوى. إن استخدام أی علامات تجاریة أو علامات تجاریة لأطراف ثالثة هو للعلم فقط ولا یعنی تأیید سویسکوت لها، أو أن مالک العلامة التجاریة قد فوض سویسکوت بالترویج لمنتجاتها أو خدماتها. 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The underlying uptrend in the BNB/USD token is a major barometer of the overall health of the crypto market, and more broadly, of investor interest in altcoins. In the previous cycle, back in January 2021, the bullish breakout of the all-time high (ATH) on BNB/USD was a leading indicator of the altcoin season. In our current cycle, BNB/USD is on the verge of breaking above its ATH once again. If this breakout happens, it would be a positive signal for altcoins. 1) Why tracking BNB/USD’s underlying trend is essential to anticipate the crypto market’s health In the crypto ecosystem, some assets serve as overall market barometers. BNB, issued by Binance, is one of them. Monitoring BNB/USD is not only relevant for holders of the token but also for any investor looking to assess the general state of the crypto and altcoin markets. Why? Because Binance is by far the largest global platform in trading volume—both in the spot and derivatives markets. The BNB token thus directly reflects the momentum of the Binance ecosystem and, by extension, a major segment of the crypto industry. When BNB is in a sustained uptrend, it generally signals renewed activity, increasing volume, and growing investor confidence. Conversely, a prolonged downtrend may suggest progressive disengagement by market participants and broader downside pressure on altcoins. Moreover, activity growth or contraction on Binance almost automatically leads to shifts in demand for BNB, which is used for trading fees, launchpad services, and DeFi. This makes BNB an early indicator of liquidity and vitality in the space. Integrating BNB/USD technical analysis into your market monitoring strategy is, in essence, observing the pulse of the crypto markets. 2) From a technical analysis perspective, a bullish breakout above BNB/USD’s ATH would be a strong altseason signal The chart below shows the weekly candlestick data for BNB/USD. Looking back at winter 2021, the breakout above the ATH coincided with the beginning of the altcoin season. As such, I’m keeping a close watch on the current ATH of $794. If BNB/USD manages to break through this resistance, it would be a very bullish signal for altcoins and would set a technical target at $1,000. However, as of now, this breakout has not occurred. A break below the key support at $690 would invalidate the bullish outlook for this cycle. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.