تحليل التحليل الفني Swissquote حول SPYX في رمز في 5‏/11‏/2025

As the S&P 500 posts a Shiller CAPE ratio of 40.24 in early November 2025 — nearly equivalent to the dot-com bubble peak in 2000 (~44) — a key question arises: can the U.S. market still advance during the last two months of the year? History suggests that November and December seasonality often favors bulls, yet economic reality and valuation levels may temper this optimism. Valuations on the Verge of Overheating Fundamental indicators speak for themselves. A Shiller P/E around 40 signals extreme overvaluation; the historical average is around 17. The Buffett Indicator, which compares total market capitalization to GDP, exceeds 200% — an all-time high, well above levels seen before the 2000 and 2007 crises. In other words, U.S. equity prices are today largely disconnected from the size of the real economy. Historical comparisons are striking: the market has only been this expensive on the eve of the tech crash twenty-five years ago. This makes any new bullish episode difficult to justify fundamentally. Yet history also shows that markets can remain overvalued for long periods, especially when liquidity is abundant and investors fear “missing out” on gains. Seasonality: A Favorable Tailwind at Year-End Statistically, November and December are the most favorable months for U.S. equities. According to Topdown Charts (1964–2024), November delivers an average return of +1%, positive in 69% of cases, while December rises +1.2% on average, gaining nearly 70% of the time. Market Paradox: Expensive Yet Bullish? This coexistence of extreme valuation and seasonal bullish momentum is not unprecedented. In 1999, for instance, the S&P 500 gained over 20% in the six months leading up to its historical peak, even though its CAPE exceeded 40. Investor psychology and flow dynamics often play a more significant role than fundamental reasoning in the short term. However, such an environment reduces the margin of safety: any macroeconomic shock or earnings disappointment could trigger a sharp correction. History shows that markets can ignore excesses … until the moment they cannot. Conclusion The S&P 500 approaches the end of 2025 in a paradoxical situation: supported by historically favorable seasonality but in fundamental weightlessness. November and December could indeed be positive due to bullish inertia, liquidity effects, and collective psychology. Yet at these valuation levels, every additional point of gain also brings the market closer to an inflection point. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. 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