تحليل التحليل الفني Swissquote حول SPYX في رمز في 18‏/12‏/2025

According to the latest Global Fund Manager Survey conducted by Bank of America, the percentage of cash held by fund managers has fallen to 3.3%, the lowest level since 1999. In terms of asset allocation, historically low cash levels among managers have often coincided with peaks in equity markets. Conversely, periods when cash levels reached elevated zones were frequently precursors to major market bottoms and to the end of bear markets. At a time when S&P 500 valuations are in an overextended bullish zone, this new historical low in cash holdings among managers therefore constitutes a signal of caution. Sooner or later, cash levels are likely to rebound, which would translate into downward pressure on equity markets. This reflects the basic principle of asset allocation between cash, equities, and bonds, with capital flowing from one reservoir to another. It is the fundamental mechanism of asset allocation: the reservoirs represented by cash, equities, and bonds fill and empty at the expense of one another. This signal is all the more significant because such a low level of cash implies that managers are already heavily invested. In other words, the vast majority of available capital has already been allocated to equities. In this environment, the pool of marginal buyers shrinks considerably, making the market more vulnerable to any negative shock: macroeconomic disappointment, a rise in long-term interest rates, geopolitical tensions, or even simple profit-taking. Moreover, historically low cash levels reflect an extreme bullish consensus. Financial markets, however, tend to move against overly established consensuses. When everyone is positioned in the same direction, the risk-reward balance deteriorates. In such cases, the market does not necessarily need a major negative catalyst to correct; the mere absence of positive news can sometimes be enough to trigger a consolidation. It is also important to recall that the rise in the S&P 500 has been accompanied by an extreme concentration of performance in a limited number of stocks, mainly related to technology and artificial intelligence. In such an environment, a simple portfolio rebalancing or sector rotation can amplify downward moves. Finally, the gradual return of cash typically does not occur without pain for equity markets. It is often accompanied by a phase of increased volatility, or even a correction, allowing a healthier balance to be restored between valuations, positioning, and economic prospects. In summary, this historically low level of cash among fund managers is not a signal of an imminent crash, but it clearly calls for caution, more rigorous risk management, and greater selectivity within the S&P 500, in an environment where optimism appears to be largely priced in. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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