shakatrade1_618

Price Action & Key Zones Litecoin LTCUSD LTCUSDT continues to move within a multi-year consolidation range. The monthly chart clearly shows the range that has held since 2022. Key levels to watch: Resistance at 145–150 USD — a key seller zone that has repeatedly acted as a reversal area. Zone 150–180 USD — monthly imbalance, likely to serve as major resistance on breakout. Range 195–270 USD — bearish order blocks, which will also act as overhead resistance. On both monthly and weekly timeframes, LTC appears to be in a phase of accumulation or reaccumulation. A breakout from this structure will likely take time. Wave Analysis: Two Scenarios 1. Base scenario : LTC is still forming a contracting triangle. Currently, it is developing wave D, which should test the monthly imbalance in the 150–180 range. After that, a correction in wave E (bearish phase) is expected, followed by a potential upward impulse. 2. Alternative scenario : the triangle is already complete, with wave E having formed at $62 in December 2024. A new upward expansion has begun. However, this version is not supported by the triangle’s geometry — none of its sides align with the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. Also, proper distribution in such cases typically takes at least 6 months, and BTC might not have that much time left in its cycle. Therefore, I stick with the base scenario: LTC is still in the accumulation phase. Targets & Timing Near-term targets: $107 → $128 → $147 (December high). Maximum target for this cycle — $180, where a major reversal or distribution may occur. On the 4H chart, a 5-wave impulse structure formed from April to May (likely wave A), followed by a sharp correction. Currently, wave C appears to be unfolding, and based on Fibonacci extensions, it could reach between $128 and $180. Fundamental Drivers for Growth: 1. Litecoin remains a reliable payment network, offering fast transactions and low fees — often referred to as “digital silver.” 2. LTC mining is synchronized with BTC, making it a logical choice for certain miners. 3. In many regions, LTC is actively used for cross-border transfers and capital movement. 4. Undervalued compared to other altcoins, with no centralization concerns or SEC scrutiny — this could attract more institutional interest. 5. ETF Potential: after BTC and ETH, Litecoin could be the next natural candidate for a spot ETF. If approved, this could trigger a significant surge in interest and liquidity.

I believe the impulse BTCUSDT BTCUSD BTCUSDT.P from April to May has been completed, and we are currently in a correction phase, which is likely to continue for some time. In the base case, I’m considering a simple zigzag pattern: Wave A – impulsive move down Wave B – forming a symmetrical triangle Wave C – expected next 🎯 Target zone: 97,500, where we have a confluence of weekly FVG, 20-week MA, and vWAP.Overall, on track. We're starting to see a series of climaxes, so a reversal could be expected soon.Closed half the short position at 98,400. Kept the other half for a possible drop to 96,000, but the market reversed — second part moved to break-even.

The move BTCUSDT BTCUSD BTCUSDT.P from November 2022 looks like a textbook impulse. The third wave extended perfectly to 1.618 of wave one — a classic sign of strength. But here’s the big question: Did the impulse already end in January 2025? If yes, we’re looking at a nearly ideal structure: 🔹 Wave 3 — extended to 1.618 🔹 Wave 5 ≈ Wave 1 (typical after an extended 3rd) 🔹 Fib zone 0.382–0.618 of wave 0–3 — perfectly hit 🔹 Sentiment — peak euphoria in January: BTC in national reserves, mass media hype 🔹 Volume spike — a sign of potential distribution at the top 📌 Possible scenarios: 1️⃣ The impulse is complete, and we’re already in a corrective phase — even if the market doesn’t realize it yet https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/xGke8M2k-The-bull-rally-to-end-in-December-2024-February-2025/ 2️⃣ A terminal diagonal is forming — ATH hasn’t been printed yet, but we’re likely close 3️⃣ A 5th wave extension — still possible, but less likely given current global liquidity and macro headwinds (trade war environment) 📊 Watch the 200-dayMA: Historically, Bitcoin tends to stay below it for about 2 months during bull cycles. That clock is ticking — the next few weeks may reveal the market’s true direction. 📈 A strong weekly close above $95K would sharply raise the odds of a new ATH. Until then — monitor the local structure and wait for clarity.

A leading diagonal (cLD) has formed on the chart — potentially completing wave A or 1. We're now seeing the development of a corrective wave B/2. 📍 Key demand zone: 82,000 – 80,000 This area is supported by: • Fibonacci extensions • VWAP and balance zone • 4H BPR • Strong volume cluster (profile-based) ⏳ This is a local setup, but if confirmed, it may kick off wave 3/C with a potential target at 90K+. BTCUSDT BTCUSD BTCUSDT.P

The impulse move in XAUUSD GC1! GOLD GOLD GLD appears to be complete. Several signals point to an imminent correction: A five-wave structure is nearing its final leg RSI is showing bearish divergence Volume is surging at the top — a classic sign of distribution The 3315–3350 zone is a risk area. Expecting a pullback to 3200–3150, possibly deeper.New High or Double Zigzag? The first leg of the decline from the local high has played out — a simple ABC corrective structure. Price is now testing the 3030–3040 resistance zone, which previously triggered a wave of selling. This area is crucial in the short term. 🔀 Two possible scenarios: Bearish case: If sellers step in again around 3030–3040, we could see a deeper correction unfolding — possibly a double zigzag (WXY) or even an initial diagonal (cLD) structure. Bullish case: If the zone is breached without strong resistance, a higher high is likely, signaling the continuation of the impulsive move. At this stage, I’m leaning toward a deeper correction as the more probable scenario.

🧩 Gold is trading at all-time highs, and the key question is: where's the top? In this post, I present a complete picture: from the long-term supercycle to the current structure on the hourly chart, plus a full set of macro and fundamental arguments in favor of continued growth. 1. Grand Supercycle & Supercycle I'm using the Gold Futures GC1! chart since 1975, which gives the best long-term volume profile. According to my Elliott Wave interpretation: Waves ① and ② of the Grand Supercycle ended before the 2000s. The Supercycle wave III began in 2000. Key milestones: Wave I of the Supercycle peaked in August 2011 Wave II bottomed in December 2015 This entire period featured accumulation and reaccumulation. Since 2016, the gold market entered an expansion phase, forming Supercycle wave III. We are currently within its first cycle wave, which suggests there's still a long way to go. 📌 The ultimate upside is hard to predict, but the projected path on the chart points to targets in the $8,000–12,000 zone. 2. The Cycle Wave Since 2016: Extended Fifth Starting from 2016, we see a classic 1–2–3–4–5 impulse structure, with the fifth wave showing clear extension — a trait commonly seen in commodity markets. 🔎 Robert Prechter pointed out that in traditional stock markets, it’s usually Wave 3 that gets extended — driven by greed and early confidence in the trend. But in commodity markets like gold, it’s often Wave 5 that gets extended. This is because traders hesitate for a long time and only enter the market in panic, typically during crises, inflationary spikes, or physical shortages. 📌 The primary motivation here is fear, capital preservation, and flight from risk — not profit-seeking. That’s why gold often produces vertical rallies at the end of a trend, within the fifth wave. 📌 In this case, XAUUSD GOLD GOLD GLD becomes a safe-haven of last resort in a world of rising fiat uncertainty. 3. Cup and Handle: A Textbook Bullish Pattern The weekly chart shows a 10-year Cup and Handle pattern (2011–2023). The breakout above the neckline has occurred, projecting a classic target in the $3500–3600 range. 4. 2022–2025 Impulse: More to Come Gold has been in a strong impulsive uptrend since 2022. This move already looks extended, but there is room for more, especially given the structure of subwaves. In the near term (1–2 months), a flat correction in wave (iv) is likely before gold rallies to a new all-time high, potentially forming wave ③ around $3400–3600. After that, expect a period of distribution and range-bound price action. 5. Hourly Chart: Fifth Wave Not Done Yet On the H1 chart, gold has bounced from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and key support. We are likely still inside wave (iv), with a potential final push in wave (v) ahead. Key levels: Support: $2920–2950 Resistance: $3250–3300 📌 A breakout above resistance could trigger a rapid rally. Macro and Fundamental Drivers 🔹 Falling Real Rates in the US 10Y yields are near 4.3%, while CPI inflation remains above 3.2%. This creates a negative real interest rate, historically a strong tailwind for gold. 🔹 Record Central Bank Buying 2023 marked the second consecutive record year for central bank gold purchases. China, India, Turkey, and Singapore are leading the charge. This shift reflects a move away from the USD amid geopolitical tensions. 🔹 Fiat System Stress Concerns over US commercial debt, banking instability, and growing systemic risk have made gold a preferred store of value for both retail and institutional investors. 🔹 Physical Delivery Demand There is growing pressure on the LBMA to deliver physical gold, not just paper claims. Some sovereign and institutional players are demanding real metal delivery. This stresses London vaults and could drive prices higher in a short squeeze scenario. 🔹 US Debt Burden Interest on US debt is expected to surpass $1 trillion in 2024 — a historic high. This challenges the USD’s reserve status and may increase long-term demand for gold. Where Can Gold Go? 🧩 We are witnessing a rare alignment of: ✅ Technical structure ✅ Elliott Wave cycles ✅ Macro tailwinds ✅ Supply stress in physical gold 📌 $3400–3600 is just the beginning. Consolidation may follow, but over the next few years, gold could target $5000 and beyond as this Supercycle wave unfolds.🔄 Update: April 10 As a long-term alternative, I’m also considering a slightly different count (see first chart below). It doesn’t change the core idea — we are still within the third wave of the ongoing Supercycle. This version simply reflects a more extended internal wave structure. Since the initial publication, gold has launched a strong rally from the support zone and printed a new all-time high (ATH). I still believe we are near a local top and that the market is likely forming wave 4. It may develop as an expanded Flat (eFL) or a running Flat (rFL) — both common patterns in strong trends. That said, the current leg up is aggressive and carries the characteristics of an impulse. So we must closely observe how this wave structure completes. As an alternative (see second chart), wave 3 may be undergoing a more substantial extension. 📌 Either way, medium- and long-term outlooks remain intact — we continue to see the unfolding of the classic Cup & Handle pattern.

Ethereum Price Review Over the past three months, ETHUSDT has been declining in a zigzag formation: Wave A formed as an impulse Wave B took the shape of an expanding flat (eFL) Wave C developed as a diagonal Whether this diagonal has fully completed remains to be seen in the near future. I anticipate that ETHUSD will aim to test the moving averages and fill the imbalance zone before confirming further direction.

Short-Term Perspective for PEPEUSDT Over the past three months, the token has been in a downtrend, forming an impulsive structure. This raises concerns about whether PEPE is still in a bullish trend or if a deeper correction is underway. In the near term, the key area to watch is the MA20week and MA200d levels, along with the price imbalance zones. With high probability, a short-term bullish movement could occur toward these resistance zones. Long-Term Scenarios From a broader perspective, three potential scenarios are in play: Bullish Continuation – If the correction completes as expected, we could see the start of Wave V, leading to new highs. Extended Correction – A larger corrective Wave IV could still be in progress, delaying a breakout. Bearish Reversal – If price fails to reclaim key levels, a larger downward structure might develop, invalidating the bullish outlook. The market structure remains uncertain, requiring further confirmation of bullish momentum. Monitoring price reaction at key resistance levels is crucial before making definitive trend assessments. PEPEUSDapproximate projection of movementThe idea played out in the end — despite a timing lag. Clear reaction off resistance, no follow-through

A long position looks promising with $22 as the first target and potential for further upside. The VAL zone serves as a solid entry area. The nearest imbalance zone could act as resistance, making it a key level to watch. LINKUSD LINKUSDT

Based on the current market structure, the nearest target for BTCUSDT is the $102,700 - $105,000 range. This level is a significant zone due to the presence of a price imbalance (FVG) and strong limit resistance on the daily timeframe. This level has previously acted as a selling zone, making it a key area for a potential pullback. From an Elliott Wave perspective, I consider the current upward movement as the final stage of Wave C within Wave D of a triangle. If BTCUSDT.P reaches this area, a downward retracement is possible to form the final Wave E before a larger breakout. Development Scenarios: 1. Base Scenario (Reversal from $102,700 - $105,000): Expecting resistance in this zone and a reversal within Wave E. Possible retest of $96,000 - $94,000 before an upward breakout. 2. Alternative Scenario (Breakout Above Resistance): If BTCUSD decisively holds above $105,000, the next target could be around $110,000 - $112,000. I am holding a long position up to the designated zone, partially taking profits within the target range. I am also considering opening a short position upon a confirmed rejection from this level. ❖ My previous forecast for BTC https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT.P/DiLeVOMt-Bitcoin-s-Bull-Cycle-Nearing-the-End-What-s-Next/