Technical analysis by shakatrade1_618 about Symbol BTC on 10/21/2025

In my previous update , I laid out the case for this bull run to finish as a contracting ending diagonal (cED). That scenario now looks highly probable: the impulse is losing steam, and BTCUSDT BTC1! is struggling to clear new hurdles. Wave Count (1) — initial impulse. (2) — flat correction (expanded flat). (3) — sharp leg with a classic extension. (4) — sharp correction (zigzag), delivered a strong pullback. (5) — finishing as a terminal diagonal (cED): inside it we already have 1–2–3; next up is wave 4 of the diagonal, then the final wave 5 (could be truncated or a minor over-throw). Working zones: wave 4 completion at 98–105k; final push target at 120–140k (I don’t expect materially higher). What It Means The impulse is fading: volume profile is clustered near the highs, the wedge is tightening, and there was no V-shaped recovery after the last dump. Base plan — take time to finish wave 4 → one last wave 5 pop → end of the bull market. Alternative (important) Let’s be honest: the top may already be in. BTCUSD has failed at ~125k twice, and every time price gets above 120k, seller pressure becomes heavy. It’s quite plausible the wedge already completed and the peak is behind us. Bottom line. Base case: one more breath up within the ending diagonal; alternative: the top is done. Either way, bulls should stay on guard — the 120+ area is where risk rises and partial profit-taking makes sense.Base scenario unchanged — wave 4 of an ending diagonal. We’ve landed right in the 0.618 zone of wave 2. By the way, wave 3 ≈ 0.618 of wave 1. Looks almost picture-perfect, but nothing’s ever perfect—so keep the bearish alternative in mind :)