Technical analysis by shakatrade1_618 about Symbol SOL: Sell recommendation (10/24/2025)

The Solana bull run that started in December 2022 most likely finished in January 2025. It was a textbook five-wave impulse (extended iii, with i ≈ v). From Jan → Apr 2025 we saw the first leg down (A), and the rally Apr → Sep was merely a corrective (B) move; base case is C down toward $80–50. An alternative allows for one more pop within B (even a small over-throw), but downside resumes after. Full cycle & proportions Dec ’22 → Jan ’25: clean 1–2–3–4–5. Wave 3 shows a classic extension. Waves 1 and 5 are nearly equal in length. The run from the bottom is roughly 30–35× (about +3,000%), which statistically argues for a meaningful mid-term correction. Base correction targets from the whole impulse: 0.382–0.5 Fib → $80–50, aligning with monthly/quarterly imbalances (FVG). What 2025 looked like Jan → Apr: first downward leg — wave A. Apr → Sep 18 (high ~$253): a double zigzag W–X–Y — typical wave B, not a new trend. Alternative (expanded flat, EFL) A: Jan → Apr 7 down. B: Apr → Sep as (A); now forming (B); then (C) up (a minor higher high is possible). After that, a larger C down into $80–50. Why I think the rally is done (market context) TOTAL and BTC likely trace end-phase bull structures (distribution/terminal patterns). Volume profile on SOLUSD : the heaviest trading sits around $120–200 (HVN/POC) — classic distribution; price often moves below POC afterwards. Price Action (weekly/monthly): $216–260 is a major resistance that launched the bear market back in Nov 2021. Repeated tests without a weekly/monthly hold above it argue against an immediate breakout. Fundamentals in two lines Why a correction now: cycle overextension, liquidity saturation near the top, sensitivity to DXY/real yields and risk-off in US indices. Why the long-term case survives: high throughput, latency improvements (e.g., Firedancer), growing DeFi/stablecoin/consumer activity. After leverage clears, SOLUSDT historically recovers with high beta. Levels & invalidation Base (correction) holds until we get a weekly close > $260–270. Downside waypoints: $150 → $120 → $95 → $80–50. Invalidation: sustained hold above $270 with expanding volume — I’d concede an early start of (3) without a deep (2). Bottom line. With high probability, SOL’s medium-term rally is over; we are in a corrective phase targeting $80–50. The long-term bullish story can resume later — but first the market likely needs to deflate.Reminder: if we consider a bullish case, it’s only as a flat. If BTC follows the base scenario (wrote about it here tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/VWBWbbLh-This-Is-the-End-BTC-The-Last-Dance/), the odds are decent.