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By early 2026, TON is increasingly viewed less as a "Telegram coin" and more as a foundational payment and settlement layer for transfers and decentralized applications (dApps) within the ecosystem. Key Fundamental Drivers: TON Wallet Integration: The wallet within Telegram is now available to US users and is strictly positioned as a non-custodial (self-custodial) solution. TON Teleport BTC: The announcement of a trustless, decentralized bridge for bringing Bitcoin into the TON ecosystem marks a significant milestone for liquidity. Network Scalability: Roadmaps highlight "Accelerator-level" updates focused on enhancing network stability under high load, improving throughput, and optimizing high-volume transaction processing. Stablecoin Adoption: The circulating supply of USDT on TON has surpassed $1 billion, confirming the network's real-world utility for global payments. Technical Analysis & Trading Scenario The asset is currently in a potential trend reversal phase. A breakout from a descending channel is considered one of the most reliable signals for daily (D1) timeframes. Current Market Structure: Trend: Predominantly bearish, with price action contained within a descending channel. Condition: As long as the upper red trendline remains unbroken and is not held as support, the D1 outlook remains bearish. Support Zone: A Double Bottom pattern has formed at the $1.45 support level. The $1.45–$1.55 range serves as a consolidation zone following the previous downward impulse. Trade Setup: Entry Point: A breakout of the resistance followed by a consolidation above $1.75. To manage risk, wait for a successful retest of this level from above. Take Profit (TP): $2.15 and $2.50. Professional Note: TON is currently in the "zone of interest." Avoid entering based on FOMO before the red trendline is broken. Ensure a daily close above $1.71 to avoid a potential fakeout (false breakout).

Growth Factors 1) Spot Bitcoin ETFs (Institutional Demand) By the end of 2025, total net assets of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $111–115 billion, equivalent to approximately 7% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. ETFs do not guarantee linear price growth, but they significantly reduce drawdowns and accelerate recoveries after corrections. 2) “Stealth QE” (Hidden Liquidity Support) The Federal Reserve’s reserve management tools (RMP) can quietly inject liquidity into the financial system, supporting risk appetite. Q1–Q2 2026 is a key window. A potential liquidity inflow of $300–600 billion is possible. If this liquidity returns to markets, Bitcoin would receive strong support and could target a move toward $150,000. Decline Factors 1) Federal Reserve Pause After three rate cuts in late 2025 (to 3.5%–3.75%), Fed officials are signaling a possible pause in Q1 2026 due to persistent inflation. The absence of further stimulus could trigger a pullback toward $75,000. 2) Declining Volume Charts show a clear divergence: price attempts to stabilize while trading volume is falling sharply, indicating buyer exhaustion. Technical Picture Price is currently sitting near the lower boundary of the wedge (green line). This is a critical decision point: either we see a strong rebound, or a downside break would signal a transition to a bearish macro trend. The market is currently in a phase of “maximum fear” within a broader bull cycle. Holding the green support line and volume around 1.86M suggest the market may be preparing for a short squeeze. If January 2026 starts with a reclaim above $95,000, the target becomes the upper orange boundary of the range — $135,000 to $150,000 by mid-2026. Repeating Corrections — The Strongest Signal First correction: ≈ −31% Second correction: ≈ −34% Current correction: ≈ −35% The duration of each wave is similar (≈ 3–6 months). Pullbacks consistently start from the upper boundary of the channel and end at the lower trendline. This is a classic fractal market structure — large capital operates according to the same repeated pattern. Historically, such symmetry is typical for BTC in 2016–2017 and 2020–2021. In all cases, these were corrections within a bull cycle, not its end. Volume Confirms Correction, Not Capitulation There are: no panic spikes in volume, no abnormal selling pressure, volumes are comparable to previous corrections. This indicates that large players are not exiting the market. What we are seeing is redistribution, not capital flight. Conclusion The market is not broken — it is in a deep but typical correction phase. Market structure, drawdown depth, and price behavior fully align with historical Bitcoin bull cycles. Entry Point Entry zone: $82,000 – $84,000 This is: the lower boundary of the expanding wedge (green line), and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the last impulse. Expected Timeline January 2026 — Accumulation Price retests the $80k–$84k zone, collecting liquidity below local lows. February – March 2026 — Impulse A sharp breakout from the wedge driven by short covering (short squeeze). Price returns toward $100,000. April – June 2026 — Parabolic Phase A parabolic move toward the upper boundary of the orange channel, with targets at $135,000 – $152,000. This would represent the final stage of the cycle. Risk Management Stop-Loss: below the mirror level at $73,200. A sustained break below this level would fully invalidate the bullish structure and signal a transition into a bear market phase.

Fundamental: moderately for LONG DXY↓, FedWatch dovish, etfGLD ,COT FedWatch: the probability of a decrease at the next meeting on September 17 is high ~85% according to the latest forecasts. ETF flows (GLD): > $105 billion, COT long, indicating interest in gold. Technical picture: a bullish micro-structure from 3405 and a bullish fundamental. Breakout 3450 opens the way to 3500, on M5, a steady impulse from 3405 to 3450 with a "ladder" HL is visible - clear purchases of failures, failure below 3440 after the breakout, breaks the retest. Inside the day: The main LONG - only according to the Breakout-Retest 3450 scheme with M5 confirmation. Alternative - SHORT from 3450 with a false breakout and return under the level. Short-term: The market has already priced in a rate cut in many ways. According to FedWatch and the last week of August, the probability of a rate cut in September is around 85-87%, the dollar is weakening, and gold has gained ground in August. This is a classic "buy-the-rumor" phase. The market has already "bought the rumors," so the reaction is often sluggish or even downward (profit-taking / "sell the news") after the decision, especially if the rhetoric is not softer than expected. When the probability of an event is >~80–90%, the decision itself rarely gives a strong new impulse — the market reacts to the difference between fact and expectation (rhetoric, dot plot, risk assessment). If the decision is expected/ystribino or without a SHORT decline on September 17. Also, in the short term, the reaction to the first decline depends on the surprise and dot plot rhetoric: expected and "not softer" — a rollback. Taking into account the historical resistance level of 3500, overbought on expectations. The rollback can be quite good, so the scenario should be prepared for such an event 20 likes and I will prepare a scenario by September 17. Less likely scenario softer/larger than expected - upward spike; no decline with high expectations - downward pressure.

I believe the next 3 quarters of reporting by American companies will be catastrophic, which will lead to a strong decline in indices, and after them, Bitcoin. Let's look at some simple data. Americans are delinquent on auto loans at the highest rate in nearly three decades. The number of applications for mortgages in the US has fallen to a nearly three-decade low and the mortgage rate is a 30-year record at 8.05% If we delve deeper into the statistics, the picture looks even worse. Here is the data that lies on the surface. The Fed has been printing trillions of dollars since 2019, since then the national debt has grown from about 22 trillion to 33, an increase of 11 trillion dollars or 50%, while interest payments will be 1.2-1.5 trillion in 2024, with budget revenue only 5 trillion, i.e. payments will be 25% of all taxes received. Think about these numbers. What options does the state have to print money? increase debt at the same pace or accelerate? and in 3 years reach a debt of 50 trillion, and in 6 years all taxes received by the US budget will go only to pay off interest on the debt. At the moment, I believe that the US stock market will decline over the next 3 quarters due to declining demand and high lending rates, which will lead to a number of noisy bankruptcies, the forced sale of cryptocurrency by large investors to cover current payments, and Bitcoin will definitely not be a safe haven. Technically for Bitcoin, the picture is of a Bearish flag, which is supported by strong resistance at 32,000 and rests on the lower part of the flag, which is also resistance. The bearish flag is now moving into a rectangle pattern, i.e. accumulation is underway and I will assume, taking into account that the downward trend will be a rebound from 32.000, or a complex breakdown from 32.000 and the price will go to 25.000 and after the new year even lower.

Bitcoin has been following the Nasdaq Index for a long time and reacts to all the news related to the US economy. Reason for correction 1) Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe went long almost 2 ATR, which happens extremely rarely and usually a correction follows after that. 2) Bitcoin stopped at a strong resistance level, from which a break was made - 25.000, it is extremely difficult to break through this level the first time 3) Bitcoin approached the resistance level of 25000 on large bars and volumes and could not break through. Now, in order to break through, you need a slow squeeze to the level of 25.000 for several days or weeks, and also buyers need to refresh themselves with good news, meanwhile, the news is not in favor of bitcoin. Economists at Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 02/17/2023 see that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates not twice by 0.25%, but 3 times. A brutal repricing of two-year Treasuries would mean a 5-10% drop in the Nasdaq 100, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Marco. I believe that the technical picture, together with fundamental news, can collapse bitcoin in the coming days to 22500 and even 21500.

Bitcoin in a new downward channel. Trade is relevant only from the borders of the channel. Very good opportunities to work with leverage with minimal risk.

Brief historical analysis Since 2018, bitcoin has declined three times. The first time the drop was 84% ​​and lasted 470 days The second time the fall was 71% and lasted 273 days At the moment, the fall is 76% and lasts 378 days, if the fall is 84%, as in the first fall, then the price will reach 10500. I think it's pretty obvious that Bitcoin is correlated with the Nasdaq Index and so it's worth mentioning what's in store for us in the stock market and what's in store for Bitcoin. So, the Federal Reserve System (FRS), acting as the central bank of the United States, raised the rate by 75 basis points - from 3-3.25% to 3.75-4%, which is the highest level since January 2008. It is expected that following the meeting on December 13-14, rates will be increased by 50 basis points. Inflation in the US is 7.7%. The goal is to raise rates to bring inflation down to 2%. To what level the Fed will raise the rate is not known. In addition, the ECB raised all three key interest rates by 75 bp in October. The base interest rate on loans was increased to 2%, the rate on deposits - up to 1.5%, the rate on margin loans - up to 2.25%. Experts expect the ECB to raise the loan rate to at least 2% from 1, 5% in December. It is a well-known fact that an increase in the rate will lead to a recession and already in the 1.2 quarter of 2023 the consequence will be a decrease in company income, an increase in unemployment, there is already a sharp drop in demand for mortgages, car loans, and these are the main drivers of the economy and another global crisis is not ruled out. The Fed and ECB may start cutting rates at some point next year, but only if a combination of factors materializes, including rising unemployment, lower inflation and some kind of breakdown in the financial markets, and only after the Fed and ECB cut rates, after a certain period of time, when it will be seen that there will be a long accumulation of positions in bitcoin, it will be possible to say that a bull market is beginning. It is not worth waiting for the beginning of the bull market for the cue ball until mid-2023. As an investment, of course, an excellent entry point at a strong weekly support level is 10500, and before that it is better to trade in channels with confirmation of entry points and wait for the market to turn.

A descending triangle has formed on the Bitcoin chart, this is a pattern of the continuation of the downward trend, and many expect it to be broken. However, in our case, it is possible to work in the opposite direction, and here's why. I think several large traders have been gaining positions for 5 months already, at the levels of 18000-20000, and in order for them to gain a position, they should create sawtooth movements, i.e. false breakouts up and down. As a result of such actions on the chart, the descending triangle should become a rectangle with sides 18.000 - 22.500 (25.000) . At some point, it is likely that the price will follow the stops to the level of 16.000. My opinion is that bitcoin is in accumulation, and this is a good sign of further rapid growth, under fundamental economic and other conditions.the idea is in force, they broke through 21.000 and there is no rollback, the instrument should go higher to the level of 23.000

This is the first investment purchase since the beginning of the fall of the crypto market. The instrument has been accumulating for 5 months, volumes have decreased to a minimum, all sales at the 0.2 support level are being redeemed, the price is 0.2 historical minimum. The potential of the move is up to 0.4 and 0.6 in the next few months, in the long run 1 dollar.The charts show an increase in volumes, sharp bursts of buying with paranormal volume and a reverse pullback. Position is being set. Further, I expect a contraction to 0.2600, a trade and a shot at 0.30-0.35. Position scored from 0.196-0.21 .

the head and shoulders pattern is formed . Input by pattern .