Technical analysis by monsRUS about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (12/31/2025)

Growth Factors 1) Spot Bitcoin ETFs (Institutional Demand) By the end of 2025, total net assets of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $111–115 billion, equivalent to approximately 7% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. ETFs do not guarantee linear price growth, but they significantly reduce drawdowns and accelerate recoveries after corrections. 2) “Stealth QE” (Hidden Liquidity Support) The Federal Reserve’s reserve management tools (RMP) can quietly inject liquidity into the financial system, supporting risk appetite. Q1–Q2 2026 is a key window. A potential liquidity inflow of $300–600 billion is possible. If this liquidity returns to markets, Bitcoin would receive strong support and could target a move toward $150,000. Decline Factors 1) Federal Reserve Pause After three rate cuts in late 2025 (to 3.5%–3.75%), Fed officials are signaling a possible pause in Q1 2026 due to persistent inflation. The absence of further stimulus could trigger a pullback toward $75,000. 2) Declining Volume Charts show a clear divergence: price attempts to stabilize while trading volume is falling sharply, indicating buyer exhaustion. Technical Picture Price is currently sitting near the lower boundary of the wedge (green line). This is a critical decision point: either we see a strong rebound, or a downside break would signal a transition to a bearish macro trend. The market is currently in a phase of “maximum fear” within a broader bull cycle. Holding the green support line and volume around 1.86M suggest the market may be preparing for a short squeeze. If January 2026 starts with a reclaim above $95,000, the target becomes the upper orange boundary of the range — $135,000 to $150,000 by mid-2026. Repeating Corrections — The Strongest Signal First correction: ≈ −31% Second correction: ≈ −34% Current correction: ≈ −35% The duration of each wave is similar (≈ 3–6 months). Pullbacks consistently start from the upper boundary of the channel and end at the lower trendline. This is a classic fractal market structure — large capital operates according to the same repeated pattern. Historically, such symmetry is typical for BTC in 2016–2017 and 2020–2021. In all cases, these were corrections within a bull cycle, not its end. Volume Confirms Correction, Not Capitulation There are: no panic spikes in volume, no abnormal selling pressure, volumes are comparable to previous corrections. This indicates that large players are not exiting the market. What we are seeing is redistribution, not capital flight. Conclusion The market is not broken — it is in a deep but typical correction phase. Market structure, drawdown depth, and price behavior fully align with historical Bitcoin bull cycles. Entry Point Entry zone: $82,000 – $84,000 This is: the lower boundary of the expanding wedge (green line), and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the last impulse. Expected Timeline January 2026 — Accumulation Price retests the $80k–$84k zone, collecting liquidity below local lows. February – March 2026 — Impulse A sharp breakout from the wedge driven by short covering (short squeeze). Price returns toward $100,000. April – June 2026 — Parabolic Phase A parabolic move toward the upper boundary of the orange channel, with targets at $135,000 – $152,000. This would represent the final stage of the cycle. Risk Management Stop-Loss: below the mirror level at $73,200. A sustained break below this level would fully invalidate the bullish structure and signal a transition into a bear market phase.