Technical analysis by monsRUS about Symbol PAXG on 8/31/2025

Fundamental: moderately for LONG DXY↓, FedWatch dovish, etfGLD ,COT FedWatch: the probability of a decrease at the next meeting on September 17 is high ~85% according to the latest forecasts. ETF flows (GLD): > $105 billion, COT long, indicating interest in gold. Technical picture: a bullish micro-structure from 3405 and a bullish fundamental. Breakout 3450 opens the way to 3500, on M5, a steady impulse from 3405 to 3450 with a "ladder" HL is visible - clear purchases of failures, failure below 3440 after the breakout, breaks the retest. Inside the day: The main LONG - only according to the Breakout-Retest 3450 scheme with M5 confirmation. Alternative - SHORT from 3450 with a false breakout and return under the level. Short-term: The market has already priced in a rate cut in many ways. According to FedWatch and the last week of August, the probability of a rate cut in September is around 85-87%, the dollar is weakening, and gold has gained ground in August. This is a classic "buy-the-rumor" phase. The market has already "bought the rumors," so the reaction is often sluggish or even downward (profit-taking / "sell the news") after the decision, especially if the rhetoric is not softer than expected. When the probability of an event is >~80–90%, the decision itself rarely gives a strong new impulse — the market reacts to the difference between fact and expectation (rhetoric, dot plot, risk assessment). If the decision is expected/ystribino or without a SHORT decline on September 17. Also, in the short term, the reaction to the first decline depends on the surprise and dot plot rhetoric: expected and "not softer" — a rollback. Taking into account the historical resistance level of 3500, overbought on expectations. The rollback can be quite good, so the scenario should be prepared for such an event 20 likes and I will prepare a scenario by September 17. Less likely scenario softer/larger than expected - upward spike; no decline with high expectations - downward pressure.