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Bitcoin priced in dollars will eventually go to infinity or to zero. This chart is a more precise model of an idea I've been toying with for a few months. It fits the past price cycles extremely accurately, if we are willing to disregard the lower end of the Covid crash wick and stick to monthly closes. It also predicts the binary set of possible futures for Bitcoin in an extremely elegant way.According to this model, regardless of which path Bitcoin price takes after this cycle, we will see a top around $111,800 around spring 2025 - April 2025 if it hits the nadir of the arch exactly. We will have a strong clue about which of the two futures (infinity or zero) Bitcoin is headed towards when we see whether it bottoms near $16,000 (Bitcoin to Zero) or bottoms near $24,000 (Bitcoin to Infinity) next bear market. The model predicts hyperinflation of the dollar in 2037 on the "Bitcoin infinity path," or alternatively Bitcoin to digital trash in 2036 on the "Bitcoin zero path."So far, this model - drawn 10 months ago - has proven perfectly accurate. It predicted the $112,000 top, including the timing, almost exactly. That was done when the price was still below $60K.Now, many crypto influencers on social media are predicting a "Huge July 2025!" for Bitcoin and crypto, and talking about $250K BTC this year. Beware. These repeated claims with flimsy reasoning behind them are the telltale sign of a liquidity grab. This is a warning signal that we have already topped for this cycle. I have already sold off everything I needed to upgrade my lifestyle until we understand with more certainty where the market is going next. Let's watch if this model holds. If next is a crash beyond anyone's worst nightmare as it predicts, we will get to see which bottom holds - the green future or the red future for our beloved Bitcoin. Good luck!

I heard Arthur Hayes mention this coin. I like Arthur Hayes and I learn from him.He knows there's BTC, and everything else is very risky and long term very speculative, and there won't be many winners when the dust settles.For now, all non-BTC crypto is good only for certain people: Founders, VCs, insiders, and extremely good, nonemotional traders.This Aptos chart looks ugly. Highly manipulated. Despite the relatively low price, now doesn't look like a good entry. It would be just guessing, throwing darts blindly at a target, unless you're one of the market makers or have inside information. I looked up the founder and that confirmed my hesitation. I got the creeps! This is not "the next Solana."I don't think the risk - reward outlook is very good on Aptos, even with someone as smart and talented at pumping as Arthur Hayes involved. I'm staying away.$5 is a key support. If it breaks down, $2 is in play.

I have seen power law, the rainbow chart, and stock to flow.For me, none of these are really elegant models, nor are they likely.I believe Bitcoin's price will follow one of two paths over the next 15 years: Either become the global digital money replacing all fiat and go to infinity relative to any fiat, or go to zero. These parallel futures are easily charted using simple arcs. In fact, Bitcoin's past highs and lows fit perfectly into two pure mathematical arcs I've charted here. It's almost uncanny how perfect it is.On this chart, the black arcs frame the past. The green arcs frame the future path of accelerating use as global money. The red arcs frame the future path of failure and eventual worthlessness. Now, we are almost at the deciding point. These arcs give us a cycle top of around $117,000, depending on when the top is - we can know with confidence we're not there yet, and it will be more than $100,000. More importantly, the next cycle low will give us a big clue about which path humanity has chosen for Bitcoin. Will the bottom be supported by the green arc, or will it fall to the red arc support? Let's see.Good luck and enjoy.

One possible scenario I'm watching.One more little dump within the current range, just to confuse and frustrate everyone and try to get a few more cheap sats out of us.Then convergence of the bull flag and inverse head and shoulders... rip upwards.Target $90,800.Well it didn't go down all the way to the support I was watching for, and now it's pushing right against the resistance line at $71,300.If it breaks this resistance, it has an excellent chance to break out of the range and explore new all time highs, expected to go at least into the mid $80Ks.There's the touch on support at 65KLater than I expected but if we're going to rally, it needs to happen next week and break through resistance at $71K. If it does, look out for new all time highs. If not, the drop would be to the next major support in the $50Ks at least.Price has broken below my long term support line. There is currently a bounce back to about $65,500, but it's still under the support line, now turned resistance. As much as I hate to do it, I now turn my highest probability expectations to BEARISH, with an expected retest of support around $56K.Bearish calls in the above comments were correct. There was a spring-like bounce from a low around $58,400, now back up to $61,500.I don't think we are confirmed out of bearish territory yet. This is very much a situation where we wait and see the next move. I am accumulating at 59K and below, with understanding it may go even lower to test $56K and then $50K, or it may break Bullish again from here and come out from this range entirely.

Here is a clear view of the patterns I'm watching with BTCUSD.The main macro pattern is this ascending channel, drawn with a diagonal grey rectangle. Touch points on support and resistance are highlighted with red and green arrows. They are perfectly parallel, which increases my confidence in the validity of that range.We also have an established pattern of spending 7+ weeks chopping within a price range before a decisive breakout. These ranging chops are highlighted here with rectangles. How long will the current range of 59K-$71K continue? And will it break out to the upside or downside?Well, since the bottom of the bear market, these ranges have broken to the upside every time. That is most likely to continue. However, in the case it breaks to the downside, the bottom of the channel support is now at $51K and rising.In the more likely case of an upside break, the resistance is around $125K and rising. The play here in my personal situation, as a long-term BTC hodler looking to add more when capital becomes available, is to set buy orders at the bottom of the range at $59-60K, and also at $52-53K in case it breaks out to the downside. And, if it breaks to the upside from here, to be ready to buy on the breakout, anticipating much higher prices.Good luck and enjoy!The wick to $56K went into my green "buy" range near the bottom support. It did not quite touch the support line. There has been a fast recovery to $63K, safely back into the previously highlighted range. At this point, I think it was a healthy sell off and buying opportunity, and my previous thesis remains unchanged.BTC had a nice run up to $71.6 area today and has found resistance here near the top of the range. Notice how in the previous ranging periods, there was always a big candle to the top of the range that was rejected, sending price back into the mid to low part of the range for a few weeks or months. That scenario is very possible here. My gut says that this is the start of a big run up through to new all time highs, and the post-halving bull market scenario actually plays out. The extension of this bull flag pattern sets the price target past the $90K range before the next ranging or correction period.Another 2 weeks in the range since my last comment. However, it looks to be gaining upwards momentum for another test of the top, now at $71,200. Will this be the big breakout of the range? Or are we going to get rejected again and spend more time chopping within the range? I think the breakout is coming soon. Let's see.The key level now is $65K. If it holds, a breakout to the upside of this range is most likely. If it fails, the uptrend support line is invalidated, and this is more likely to break to the downside, below $60K and possibly even back into the $40Ks where the last range provides strong support.Since yesterday's comment, we got a drop to 65K- A touch and bounce EXACTLY on the ascending support trend line. Let's see if 65K holds for the next week. If we get a good rally here, it will take us to a breakout up into the next range.Price broke below my long term support line, and below $65,000. There is currently a bounce back to about $65,500, but it's still under the support line, now turned resistance.As much as I hate to do it, I now turn my highest probability expectations to BEARISH, with an expected retest of support around $56K.

The big arc pattern I was watching has completed, and BTC has put in a new all time high. Now we're slogging through some post-halving chop, speculating on the next big move. It's been about 7 weeks of chop around the 660KS now. If you look at the chart, generally this kind of ranging chop lasts for 7-10 weeks before a decisive move that breaks out of the range. This leads me to believe the next big move is likely imminent.The main pattern I'm watching now is the ascending range I drew with a grey rectangle. Currently, it gives us a bottom at $51K, and top at $125K. The rectangle has a steep ascent, so both support and resistance values are rising. We don't know which way the next breakout will go yet. I'm a stacker with BTC and long-term bullish, so my strategy here is to have few buy orders in at $52-53K in case of a wick down to the bottom of my range. However, I'm just as happy holding my long-term stack if the price breaks to the upside. Good luck and enjoy.The range was broken, did not reestablish the trend, was rejected at a key level, and this bullish idea is nullified. I see a lot of people stuck on the bull cycle narrative and ignoring clear signs of danger in this market. It's impossible to know what happens next, but very bearish scenarios are in play and I would say more likely than a quick resuming of the bull trend.I took the opportunity of the pump to $62K over the weekend to lighten my bags considerably, for the first time since I started buying BTC in 2017. I believe that was a relief rally and there will be considerably lower prices ahead. I sold enough to have cash to take advantage in case of that scenario, and I'm now waiting for a day when there is "blood in the streets" to buy back in. I kept enough BTC that I can live happily with any scenario. Good luck out there, it may get very ugly.

We have been in the green channel since Jan 2023. It's a clean channel with symmetrical touch points on the top and bottom. There is room to go either way and still stay within the channel.Now at the center of the channel, we have the obvious pattern forming: a bullish pennant. The interesting thing is that there's a convergence between the extension of the pennant and the top of the green channel. That's around $135K in mid-May.One thing I have seen many times charting BTC over the years is that a pattern everyone sees (like this pennant) will confirm to the upside, get a bunch of leveraged longs in, and then break hard to the downside to liquidate them before ripping up again. That's the most likely scenario I'm looking for. Let's watch and enjoy.There is one more convergence here. The high volume around $51-53K we experienced in mid-February converges with the bottom of the channel. If this pennant were to break to the downside, I'm looking for support in that range. I will be buying there while the rest of the market will be in absolute panic mode. Let's be ready for both scenarios.OK there's our big break upwards to $71,900Now the higher probability path is continuing upwards to new ATH and beyond.Open long, stop loss at $68,500.Looks like it won't be "up only" after the strong breakout. If a retest of the pennant is coming, I have it hitting at around $70,300. I'm still looking for a hard break to the downside to liquidate leveraged longs before taking off upwards as my most likely scenario.

The Polkadot network is still alive. It is a unique L0 platform. It has zealous believers, talented developers, and it WILL have its turn to take center stage and pump like crazy in a continued bull market scenario / alt season.That's all we really need to know as far as fundamentals.Drawing arcs, it's difficult to know exactly what the arc will look like until it's well on it's way up the arc. So I offer here the two most extreme possibilities for what the completed arc will look like. The yellow arc has the most touch points, and is also very bullish with a 6x in 6 months. The black arc has touch points near the bottom, and stretches the ascension to the previous ATH another year. That gives us the possible dates for a new ATH between autumn of 2024 and autumn of 2025. I think a long and volatile bull market lasting deep into 2025 is indeed the most likely macro scenario.It also gives us how to invalidate - if the black arc breaks down, it will be a long time (or never) before we see DOT valued the way it was in the 2021 peak.Holding DOT yields staking rewards and I believe it is a good bet to get some adoption. I'm bullish on this and am adding to my stack.Good Luck.DOT is hanging out just next to the black arc wall now. I'm watching for a bounce to confirm the black arc, or a breakdown to invalidate it, and sadly, change my expectations for DOT price to dwindle down forever into irrelevance.DOT bounced exactly on the black arc wall and is holding inside the arc despite BTC puking.It's a good time to ADD LONG with stop losses in place in case the market dumps even harder in the days to come.This is a medium-risk, extremely high reward place to GO LONG POLKADOTThe arc broke. DOT may come back one day, but for now there are projects with better risk reward and better upside if the bull market happens. I'm out.

It looks like the BTC consolidation in the $63-67K range since falling to $60800 is within a few days of completing and making another move one way or the other.The more likely next move is bullish to $75000+.I previously believed the correction would be deeper, at least to 59K and possibly to $50K, but a drop to those levels does not look likely to me anymore.Good luck.Emphatic break to the upside. Next target $75K.

BTCUSD - The Flood is Here. BTC is the Ark. The days of fiat currency are phasing out. It's over. We are moving into a multi-polar monetary system with multiple base layers. If you are aware of what's happening, it's time to choose where to store your wealth. What do you want to own when we emerge on the other side of the tumultuous death of fiat? We now have the technology to support digital wealth storage of any asset, with instant conversion to other assets, instant transfers, and no need for a trusted third party or government hand-holding. Gold is one obvious base layer for money. Physical gold will remain a store of wealth for a long time to come. For many years now, it has already been decided that Bitcoin is the base layer for digital money. There will be other layers, such as tokens that claim ownership of a network, commodity, company, or other assets. However, Gold and BTC will be the critical forms of money for humanity. The question is, what will the journey look like? How can we enjoy it, have security, and emerge more prosperous? We can look to charts to get an idea about the journey for the short and mid term. I am watching these patterns: 1. An arc (green) that has been providing support since the 2021 SWB:69K top, and suggests a return to that price later this year or early 2024. 2. A range (yellow) that we can watch for a break above or below to suggest whether the next macro move will be higher or lower. 3. A broadening wedge (pink) that has held for months now, and holds the possibility of price going much lower in the months to come if the arc support does not hold. I remain cautious in the short term, bullish in the long term. If there is a touch on the arc wall and a bounce, I will add aggressively. Good luck and enjoy!