TradeWithTheTrend3344

🧠 Combined Market Intelligence ReportFocus Asset: XAU/USD (Gold/USD)Current Price: $3,381.65🌍 Macro Overview: Key Weekly Market Themes🏦 Central Bank Policy DivergenceFederal Reserve: Held rates steady; Powell struck a more cautious tone. Seven members now forecast no cuts in 2025. Rate cut probability softened early in the week, then revived after Fed Governor Waller hinted at a possible July cut.Swiss National Bank (SNB): Cut rates to 0.00%, surprising markets and signaling potential for negative rates if needed.Bank of Japan (BOJ): Maintained rates at 0.50%, slowed bond tapering, signaled caution amid trade and inflation uncertainty.ECB & BOE: Mostly neutral/dovish tones. ECB may cut in 6 months; BOE remained split.🧩 Implication: Diverging monetary paths and policy uncertainty support demand for neutral reserve assets like gold.⚔️ Geopolitical Risk: Israel-Iran ConflictMarkets opened bullish on gold due to de-escalation signals from Iran, but risk-off sentiment returned midweek after:Trump’s “unconditional surrender” demandIran’s “irreparable damage” threatReports of possible U.S. strikesBy Friday, Trump hit “pause” for 2 weeks of diplomacy.🧩 Implication: Geopolitical tension is unresolved. Gold remains a top safe-haven hedge as military conflict risk persists.📉 Macro Data WeaknessU.S. Retail Sales: -0.9% (vs. -0.4% expected)U.S. Industrial Production: -0.2%Philly Fed Manufacturing: -4.0UK Retail Sales: -2.7% m/mEurozone Wage Growth: 3.4% y/y (missed expectations)Australia Jobs: -2.5k (vs. +15k expected)🧩 Implication: Global slowdown signals strengthen gold’s appeal as a defensive and inflation-hedging asset.📊 Technical Outlook for XAU/USD (Gold)🔹 Current Price: $3,381.65🔸 Key Indicators (1D)IndicatorValueSignalRSI55.65Slightly bullish (>50)Stochastic %K / %D51.23 / 53.33Neutral zoneWilliams %R-44.18Mid-range, no strong signalBollinger Mid-Band3,381.55Price = BB midline (balance point)Keltner Mid-Channel3,381.94Matching price (consolidation)📍 Key Price LevelsSupport: $3,360 → $3,345Resistance: $3,410 → $3,430Breakout Point: Close above $3,410 confirms upside momentumBreakdown Point: Close below $3,360 confirms renewed selling pressure📈 Forecast for Gold (XAU/USD) – Next 1–5 Days🔮 Fundamental Bias: 🔼 Mildly BullishUnresolved geopolitical tension = sustained safe-haven flowsGlobal economic softness = pressure on real yieldsMixed Fed tone, SNB cut = supportive macro backdrop for gold📉 Technical Bias: 🔁 Neutral to BullishRSI above 50, price above major midlines = buyers still in controlConsolidation at key pivot level ($3,381) suggests accumulation, not exhaustionIf price breaks above $3,410 and sustains, rally toward $3,430–3,460 is likelyIf price breaks below $3,360, watch for a retest of $3,345–3,330 support zone🎯 Final XAU/USD Forecast SummaryTime FrameDirectionPrice TargetsConfidenceRisk Catalyst1–2 Days🔁 Sideways-to-Bullish$3,390 → $3,410ModerateNews on Fed, Trump-Iran3–5 Days🔼 Bullish$3,430 → $3,460HighBreakout + geopoliticsBearish Case🔽 If < $3,360$3,345 → $3,330ModeratePeace deal + strong USD⚠️ Trade ConsiderationsIf bullish breakout (> $3,410) → potential swing trade toward $3,460If failed breakout (< $3,360) → reversion trade toward $3,330Avoid aggressive positions until volatility picks up, as current setup is range-bound with breakout potential.The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a BoostTradeWithTheTrend3344

Hello,🪙 XAU/USD Weekly Outlook📅 May 25 – 30, 2025📍 Current Price: $3,355.35📈 RSI (1D): 57.99 — Neutral to mild bullish momentum🔮 Summary & Key LevelsGold remains bullish, supported by USD weakness, geopolitical tension, and safe-haven demand. Without hawkish shocks, expect a test of $3,440+ this week.LevelSignificanceLikelihood$3,300 – $3,355Support zone, dip-buying likely🔵 High$3,355 – $3,390Current range, mild upside grind🟡 Moderate$3,390 – $3,440Key resistance test🟢 Likely if USD weak$3,440 – $3,500Breakout extension zone🟠 Conditional (Fed/dovish data needed)< $3,280Bearish invalidation🔴 Unlikely barring major USD reversal🧭 Directional Bias:Bullish with breakout potential — driven by rising U.S. debt concerns, Fed rate cut talk, and risk aversion.🔍 Supporting FactorsUS Dollar Weakness:USD dropped 1.4–2.3% vs majors; JPY & CHF gained as safe havens.Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit rating and weak Treasury auctions amplify fiscal stress.Trump’s tariff threats revive trade war fears, pressuring USD further.Fed & Inflation Watch:Fed speakers mixed; Waller hinted at cuts if tariffs escalate.May 31 Core PCE inflation data critical — softer print could ignite breakout.Safe-Haven Rotation:JPY & CHF strength signals risk hedging.Global tensions, equity fragility, Middle East unrest support gold demand.🌐 Global Macro Highlights & Gold ImplicationsRegionHighlights Gold Impact🇺🇸 USFiscal strain, downgrade, mixed data🟢 Bullish🇪🇺 EurozoneHawkish ECB, stable inflation🟡 Mildly bullish🇬🇧 UKStrong CPI, Brexit optimism⚪ Neutral🇯🇵 JapanHawkish BoJ pivot, rising inflation🟢 Safe-haven driver🇨🇭 SwitzerlandCHF rally, deflation concerns🟢 Risk-off tone🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿Mixed data, dovish bias⚪ Commodity FX support📅 Key Events to Watch (May 25–30)Date Event Impact on GoldDailyFed speakers (Waller, Bostic)🟠 Dovish tone supports goldFridayUS Core PCE Inflation🟥 Major catalyst — soft print = breakout riskAnytimeTrump tariff announcements🟥 Volatility spike = bullish catalystOngoingRisk sentiment & equity volatility🟠 Supports safe-haven flows✅ Bottom LineGold’s technical and macro setup is strong. A push above $3,390 could open a move toward $3,440–$3,470, especially if Friday’s PCE data disappoints or trade tensions escalate. Downside limited unless USD sentiment reverses sharply.The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a BoostTradeWithTheTrend3344⚠️ Brace for Volatility: What’s Driving the FX Market This Week📅 May 26–30, 2025This week is packed with high-stakes events and policy shifts. Expect strong moves across FX pairs as the market digests:🏦 Central bank rate decisions📉 Rising global uncertainty💥 Escalating U.S. fiscal and trade tensions🔙 What Just Happened? — Last Week’s Market MoversThe U.S. dollar suffered a broad selloff, losing 1.4% to 2.3% against major peers — one of its worst performances in months.🧨 Key Catalysts:U.S. credit rating downgradedDeficit-widening tax bill passedTariff threats on EU goods set for June 1Global risk sentiment turned defensive🌍 Macro Backdrop: What’s Shaping Market Sentiment🔺 U.S. Fiscal Alarm BellsCredit downgrade + massive tax plan raise concerns about long-term debt sustainabilityTreasury yields spiked, particularly on the 30-year bond⚔️ Trade War Redux50% tariff threat on EU imports has revived global trade tension worriesTriggered sharp risk-off reactions across assets📈 Europe Gets a Sentiment Boost"Brexit reset" optimism and sticky inflation supported EUR and GBPRegion benefited from USD weakness and relatively stable macro expectations🏛 Central Bank Signals🏦 Bank🗣️ Tone💬 Highlights🇺🇸 FedMixedHawkish speeches overshadowed by fiscal policy concerns🇨🇳 PBOCDovishFirst benchmark rate cut in 7 months (1Y: 3.1% → 3.0%)🇦🇺 RBADovishCut 25bps; discussed deeper cuts; downgraded outlook🇪🇺 ECBUnclearSome officials hint at pausing cuts; others still dovish📊 Economic Highlights from Last Week📍 Region🧾 Data📈 Surprise?🇯🇵 JapanCore CPI 3.5%Beat; +13% m/m in machinery orders🇨🇦 CanadaCPI 1.7% y/yCooled below BoC target🇬🇧 U.K.CPI 3.5% y/yHigher than expected; retail sales jumped🇺🇸 U.S.PMIs 52.3Stable readings, but ignored due to fiscal concerns📋 FX Fundamentals LeaderboardBased on monetary stance, macro resilience, and risk sentiment alignment (10 = strongest).RankCurrencyScoreRationale🥇 1🇯🇵 JPY8.9Hawkish BoJ + global safe-haven demand🥈 2🇨🇭 CHF7.8Traditional safe-haven flows; SNB firm🥉 3🇪🇺 EUR6.8USD weakness + inflation resilience4🇬🇧 GBP6.3Hot inflation supports BoE patience5🇳🇿 NZD6.1Pre-RBNZ rally; mixed local data6🇨🇦 CAD5.9CPI drop + oil volatility weigh7🇦🇺 AUD5.7RBA dovish pivot + China exposure8🇺🇸 USD4.2Lost safe-haven status, fiscal drag⚠️ Themes Driving This Week’s Market1. 🧾 U.S. Fiscal Risk SurgeTrigger: Credit downgrade + deficit-heavy tax planImpact: Weighs on USD and Treasuries2. ⚔️ Trade War Threats EscalateTrigger: 50% EU tariff warningImpact: Risk-off flows into JPY, CHF; hits AUD, NZD, CAD3. 🏦 Central Bank DivergenceTrigger: BoJ hawkish; RBA, RBNZ leaning dovishImpact: JPY outperformance, pressure on AUD/NZD4. 🔄 Safe-Haven RotationTrigger: USD loses appeal amid internal risksImpact: CHF, JPY become primary risk-averse plays5. 🛢️ Oil Price VolatilityTrigger: Price swings on OPEC+ uncertainty ($64 → $60.30)Impact: CAD and other commodities-linked FX struggle📆 Key Events Ahead (GMT)🗓️ Wednesday – May 28🇦🇺 CPI – Inflation check for the RBA (01:30)🇳🇿 RBNZ Rate Decision – 25bp cut expected (02:00)🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes – Insights on trade & fiscal views (18:00)🗓️ Thursday – May 29🇺🇸 Preliminary GDP Q1 – Key growth metric (12:30)🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims – Labor strength signal (12:30)🇬🇧 BoE’s Bailey Speech – Post-CPI rate clues (19:00)🗓️ Friday – May 30🇪🇺 German CPI (All Day) – Important for ECB watchers🇨🇦 Monthly GDP – CAD performance hinge (12:30)🇺🇸 Core PCE – Fed’s favored inflation gauge (12:30)🧠 Potential Market Scenarios✅ Base Case (60%)USD remains under pressureJPY, CHF stay firm on risk-off flowsNZD slips post-RBNZ cut⚠️ Risk-Off Escalation (30%)Tariff threat materializesCommodity FX tumbleYields spike further on deficit worries📈 Surprise Recovery (10%)Tariff rollback or deal optimismU.S. data stays resilientUSD stages short-covering bounce✅ Trader NotesAdjust position sizes ahead of key eventsUse clear exit levels given rising intraday volatilityWatch for liquidity gaps, especially around central bank updates and Friday’s Core PCE dataWhiplash Week: Dollar Surges, Gold Swings, and Central Banks Hold FireGlobal & FX Weekly Recap + Pro XAU/USD ViewMay 26–30, 2025⚡️ Markets in Flux: Legal Limbo, Central Bank Caution, and Risk RouletteWhat started as a "relief rally" turned into a chaotic week for global markets, dominated by mixed macro data, a court ruling on U.S. tariffs, and a return of China risk. From FX to commodities, asset classes moved in sync with political headlines more than fundamentals. And in the middle of this storm? Gold (XAU/USD), caught between fading inflation fears and renewed geopolitical tensions.🧭 FX Market Themes🇺🇸 USD – A Ping-Pong RideBullish catalysts: Trump’s tariff delay (July 9 deadline), surging consumer confidence (98 vs. 84 forecast), and Fed “patience” on cuts.Bearish triggers: A federal court struck down tariffs (trade uncertainty), GDP revised lower, jobless claims ticked up, and Core PCE softened (+0.1% MoM).Result: USD rallied hard early but retraced as the legal fog deepened.🇪🇺 EUR – The Resilient EuroHeld ground despite weak German and French data. Tariff relief and strong sentiment (EU Econ Sentiment: 94.8) kept it afloat.ECB stayed cautious; no rate cut likely before September.🇬🇧 GBP – Top Performer (Early)Hit 3-year highs ($1.3594) before month-end flows dragged it down. Benefited from improved trade sentiment and “risk-on” positioning.🇨🇦 CAD – From Laggard to LeaderStrong GDP (+2.2% y/y) and income data flipped the loonie into the top G10 performer by Friday.🇨🇭 CHF – Risk BarometerSwitzerland’s trade surplus and sentiment improved. CHF zigzagged with risk appetite.🇦🇺 / 🇳🇿 AUD & NZD – China Exposure HurtSoft retail data and renewed U.S.-China tension punished both. Kiwi's RBNZ cut failed to hold support amid collapsing sentiment indicators.🇯🇵 JPY – Inflation Surprise, But Still WeakTokyo CPI jumped (3.6%), and BOJ hinted at higher rates. But weak demand for bonds and poor industrial output made JPY the week’s worst.🪙 Pro XAU/USD (Gold) Perspective: Volatile, Vulnerable, but Not Broken📉 Price Action Recap:Monday: Dropped 1% to $3,330 on Trump’s tariff delay (risk-on).Tuesday: Down another 1.9% as legal challenges to tariffs boosted the USD and yields.Midweek: Gold touched $3,269 after the federal court ruled tariffs illegal.Friday: Whipsawed as China tensions returned and traders reassessed Fed path.🔍 Key Drivers:Real Yields: U.S. 10-year yields surged midweek, undercutting gold's appeal.Inflation: Core PCE rose just 0.1%, confirming disinflation but lowering urgency for Fed easing.Geopolitics: Reignited China rhetoric + Middle East calm (Hamas ceasefire) kept safe-haven demand muted… until late Friday.⚖️ Strategic Take:“XAU/USD showed vulnerability to legal and yield-driven flows but remained above key psychological support at $3,250. The $3,280–$3,330 zone is now critical. Gold's failure to break lower despite risk-on spikes suggests traders are still holding insurance—quietly.”🧭 Pro Outlook:Neutral-to-Bullish bias near-term if:Legal uncertainty around tariffs persists.China relations worsen or OPEC tensions spike.Bearish risks:Fed sticks to “no-cut” language.Core PCE continues cooling.U.S. yields break higher again.📊 Winners & Losers (FX)🏆 Top Performers:🇨🇦 CAD | 🇬🇧 GBP (early) | 🇺🇸 USD (choppy but net up)🥈 Defensive Plays:🇪🇺 EUR | 🇨🇭 CHF🔻 Underperformers:🇦🇺 AUD | 🇳🇿 NZD | 🇯🇵 JPY🧠 Final Thoughts: Legal Drama, No Central Bank Clarity, and Gold in LimboThe market got everything this week—policy delay, legal reversals, yield spikes, and tariff threats 2.0. Gold, often a safe-haven leader in chaos, instead danced to the tune of U.S. real yields and legal uncertainty. Traders are clearly watching Trump’s next move, the July 9 deadline, and June’s inflation prints.With central banks sidelined and geopolitics in play, XAU/USD is a coiled spring. Don’t mistake short-term volatility for trend direction. As real yields peak and legal fog thickens, gold's next move could be explosive—either way.🗓️ Next Week’s Watchlist:OPEC+ decisionU.S. ISM & NFPChina PMIEurozone inflationGold’s $3,250 support test🪙 XAU/USD Near $3,374: Eyeing a Re-Test of All-Time Highs🧭 Gold Near Major Resistance – Is $3,500 Next?Gold is trading at $3,374, inching closer to its previous all-time high at $3,500. This level is psychologically and technically important, especially with macro crosswinds swirling.🔥 What's Fueling Gold’s Strength?CatalystImpact💵 USD WeaknessAs the dollar falters on trade & legal chaos, gold attracts inflows.⚖️ Policy DivergenceFed cautious, ECB easing, BOJ tightening – this confusion lifts gold.🛡️ Safe-Haven FlowsCHF, JPY, and now gold are leading safety plays amid market stress.🇨🇳 China RisksTalk of retaliation and policy shifts raises geopolitical demand for gold.📊 Key XAU/USD Levels to WatchPrice LevelTypeCommentary$3,500🔼 Major ResistanceAll-time high and psychological barrier. Break = bullish continuation.$3,320–$3,340⚖️ Short-Term SupportBuyers defending dips; consolidation area.$3,250🔽 Deeper Pullback ZoneBreak below here could invite momentum shorts.💡 Gold in the FX Context1. 🛡️ Gold vs. USD as a Safe HavenGold is outshining the dollar during stress events, especially with legal volatility undermining confidence in U.S. institutions.2. 📉 Gold’s Reaction to Central Bank DivergenceFed’s “hold” policy contrasts with the ECB cut and BOJ hike prospects. This uncertainty = long gold.3. 🔥 Trade Tensions Boost Strategic Gold BuyingTrump’s tariff drama and stalled China talks make gold a neutral hedge that avoids FX-specific risks.📅 Gold-Relevant Events This WeekDateEventGold ImplicationsMon, Jun 2🇺🇸 Powell SpeaksDovish = gold strength. Hawkish = possible pullback.Thu, Jun 5🇪🇺 ECB Rate CutWeakens EUR but may weaken USD too if dovish global tone persists → gold supportedFri, Jun 6🇺🇸 Non-Farm PayrollsWeak data = gold breaks $3,400; strong = possible rejection near $3,500📈 Gold Scenarios for June 2–6ScenarioProbabilityGold Reaction🧩 Base Case (55%)Mixed U.S. data, ECB cuts, BOJ cautiousGold trades $3,340–$3,400; possible test of $3,450🚨 Risk-Off (30%)Weak NFP, China retaliation, trade ruling escalatesGold surges to re-test $3,500 highs🟢 Risk-On (15%)Trade deal progress, strong NFP, Powell neutralGold pulls back to $3,280–$3,320 zone🎯 Trading Thoughts on XAU/USD📈 Bulls: Look for consolidation breakouts above $3,400 with tight stops for a $3,500 test.🧠 Swing Traders: $3,320 support zone is a critical pivot—bullish above, vulnerable below.🛑 Bears: Short only on strong macro data + Powell hawkish surprise, targeting $3,250 or lower.🟡 Gold Surges as U.S. Data Sparks Fed Rate Cut Bets | Market Recap – June 4, 2025Markets were all over the place on Wednesday, driven by a wave of weak U.S. economic data that reignited hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Let’s break down the action:🔥 Key Market Movers:AssetMoveDriversGold (XAU/USD)▲ $3,370 (+1.9%)Weaker USD, falling yields, stagflation fearsU.S. Dollar▼ Across the boardDisappointing ISM & ADP data; dovish Fed expectations10-yr Treasury▼ 4.46% → 4.365%Biggest drop in 7 weeks as bond demand surgedS&P 500FlatTug-of-war between recession fears and rate cut hopesDow Jones▼ 0.22%Dragged by economic worriesNasdaq▲ 0.32%Techs ride easing-rate optimismOil (WTI)▼ $62.66Saudi supply hints, fuel inventory build-upBitcoin▲ $105KQuiet grind higher amid soft dollar📉 U.S. Data DisappointedReportActualForecastPreviousISM Services PMI49.952.051.6ADP Private Payrolls37K70K62KS&P Global Services PMI53.752.350.8💬 Why It Matters for Gold (XAU/USD):These results show the U.S. economy slowing faster than expected. Traders fear stagflation—slow growth with stubborn inflation. That pushed rate-cut expectations higher and yields lower, weakening the dollar and boosting demand for gold as a safe haven.🧩 Global Highlights🇯🇵 Japan Services PMI slipped to 51.0🇦🇺 Australia Q1 CapEx barely rose (+0.1%), AUD weakened🇩🇪 Germany & 🇪🇺 Euro Area Services PMI contracted🇬🇧 UK Services PMI beat expectations🇸🇦 Saudi hints at +411K bpd oil increase in August🇨🇦 Bank of Canada held rates at 2.75%, CAD strengthened🟡 Takeaway for XAU/USD:Worsening global data + energy market uncertainties + falling real yields = bullish gold.🗓️ What’s Next? | June 5, 2025 Key Risks to WatchTime (GMT)EventMarket Impact Focus06:00🇩🇪 Germany Factory OrdersEUR, risk sentiment12:15🇪🇺 ECB Rate DecisionEUR, global yield curves12:30🇺🇸 U.S. Jobless Claims, Trade BalanceUSD, recession concerns12:45🇪🇺 ECB Press ConferenceEUR/USD, global risk16:00+🇺🇸 Fed Speeches (Kugler, Harker)USD, XAU/USD📌 For Gold Traders (XAU/USD):Watch for dovish ECB language and weak U.S. jobless claims to further support gold. Fed speeches later in the day could add volatility if they confirm easing bias.📈 XAU/USD Technical OutlookGold broke out to $3,370, the highest close in nearly a month. Momentum is strong on the back of:🟢 Lower real yields🟢 Safe-haven inflows🟢 Dovish Fed betsA sustained close above $3,380 could target $3,400–$3,420 next. Watch for resistance there and support around $3,340.🔍 U.S. Jobs Report Watch: What May’s NFP Could Mean for Markets📅 Key EventU.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report (May 2025)🕰️ Release Date & Time:Friday, June 6 at 12:30 PM GMT(Use a time zone converter to check your local time)📈 Market Context & Why It MattersTraders are on edge ahead of Friday’s jobs release, especially after the shockingly weak 37,000 ADP private jobs print. With forecasts at +130,000 for NFP, the report could reshape expectations around:📉 Fed interest rate moves💵 Dollar strength🌍 Global risk sentimentAdd in ongoing trade tensions and stagflation worries, and you have the makings of a high-volatility event.🔢 Market ForecastsMetricForecastPreviousNon-Farm Payrolls (NFP)+130,000+177,000Average Hourly Earnings+0.2% m/m+0.2% m/mUnemployment Rate4.2%4.2%🗓️ As of June 5, 2025, 03:31 AM GMT🧠 What Recent Data Is Telling Us🔼 Signals Pointing to Stronger Jobs (Bullish USD)S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): 52.0 – Employment rose, though slightlyS&P Global Services PMI (May): 53.7 – Services hiring expandedISM Services Employment: 50.7 – Finally in growth territoryDallas Fed Employment Components: ImprovingRichmond Fed Manufacturing Employment: Slightly betterChicago PMI: Noted uptick in employment vs. April🔽 Signals Pointing to Weaker Jobs (Bearish USD)ADP Jobs Report (May): Only +37,000 added – lowest in 2+ yearsISM Manufacturing Employment: 46.8 – Still in contractionConsumer Sentiment: Cites “stagnating incomes”Kansas Fed Manufacturing: Shrinking workforceWeekly Jobless Claims (4-week avg): Elevated near 231K💡 How Markets Reacted to Recent NFPsApril Report (Released May 2):NFP: +177K (beat expectations)USD Reaction: Mixed; early gains fadedRisk Sentiment: Lifted by trade talk hopesUnemployment: Ticked up to 4.2%Wages: Slowed to 0.2%March Report (Released April 4):NFP: +228K (well above forecast)USD Reaction: Rallied sharply, especially vs. AUD & NZDUnemployment: Edged up to 4.2%Risk Sentiment: Volatile due to tariff announcements⚖️ Possible Market Scenarios🔹 Base Case (100K–140K Jobs Added)USD: Initial drop, followed by stabilizationRisk Sentiment: Cautious optimismKey Detail to Watch:Wage growth steady at 0.2%Unemployment holds at 4.2%Likely FX Moves:USD could slip vs. JPY and CHFEUR gains may be limited due to ECB rate cut bets🔻 Weak Case (<80K Jobs)USD: Broad sellingRisk Sentiment: Sharp deteriorationExpect:Fed rate cut chatter to spikeConcerns about a deeper slowdownLikely FX Moves:USD down vs. JPY, GBP, CADRisk-off trades dominate📉 A downside surprise could rattle markets already anxious about Q1 GDP contraction and trade uncertainty.🎯 How to Trade the EventWait for clarity: Avoid trading during the initial volatility spikeWatch for confirmation: Details matter more than the headlineUse key levels & stop losses: Position sizing and risk control are essentialStay tuned to headlines: Any tariff or Fed-related remarks can shift sentiment quickly🧭 Final TipsMarkets are walking a tightrope between rate cut expectations and stagflation fearsA poor report could accelerate policy shifts and rattle all asset classesA solid print may support the dollar – but only if wage and unemployment data hold steadyDon’t ignore the geo-political backdrop – especially U.S.-China trade developments or political pressures on the Fed💡 Preparation beats prediction. Have your game plan ready, manage risk, and let the market come to you.$3,390 – $3,440 Key resistance test Done

Hello,📅 Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Outlook – May 18–24, 2025Current Price: $3,203.47RSI (1D): 53.54 → Neutral✅ Base Case: Mild Bullish / Range-Bound📈 Bias: Neutral to Bullish🎯 Target Range: $3,230 – $3,280📊 Probability: ~65%Gold is consolidating above prior breakout levels with neutral momentum (not overbought). This suggests more upside is possible unless bearish catalysts emerge.🔍 Key Support & Resistance LevelsSupport 1: $3,170 – $3,160 (prior breakout zone, likely defended)Support 2: $3,120 – $3,100 (deeper dip buy zone)Resistance 1: $3,230 – $3,250 (minor ceiling — likely tested soon)Resistance 2: $3,280 – $3,300 (bullish extension target)📊 Weekly Scenarios1. Mild Bullish / Sideways (Base Case)🟢 Probability: 65%🔁 Price holds above $3,160🎯 Target: $3,230 – $3,2802. Bullish Breakout🟡 Probability: 20%🚀 Trigger: Geopolitical risk or Fed dovish shift🎯 Target: $3,300+3. Bearish Pullback🔴 Probability: 15%❌ Trigger: Strong USD, hot data, or yield spike🎯 Target: $3,160 → $3,100🧭 Trade Idea (Example Strategy)Long Entry: Around $3,170Stop Loss: Below $3,145Take Profit: $3,230 / $3,280Risk/Reward: Favorable if price holds support The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a BoostTradeWithTheTrend3344FX Weekly Recap (May 12–16, 2025)Gold regains footing as inflation expectations surge, Fed hesitatesWeekly Market Narrative – Gold Bullish LensGold weathered a volatile week that began with a brief risk-on rally driven by US-China tariff rollback hopes, but the optimism faded fast. As the week progressed, the market’s attention shifted decisively toward resurgent inflation concerns and uncertain Fed policy, fueling renewed demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Despite a late-week USD rebound, the setup for gold remains constructive, with real yields under pressure and market doubts about monetary policy effectiveness mounting.XAU/USD Tailwinds This WeekUS Inflation Data Mixed, but Long-Term Risks MountingCPI and PPI came in softer, briefly pulling yields lower and supporting gold upside.However, UMich 5–10Y inflation expectations jumped to 7.3%, shocking markets and reviving gold’s safe-haven and inflation-hedge appeal.Fed Communication – Cautious, Not DovishOfficials pushed back on imminent cuts, keeping short-term rates elevated.But persistent inflation and flat growth expectations mean real yields may soften, creating a bullish environment for gold.Risk Assets Wobble Late in WeekEquities lost steam after the initial rally, reinforcing gold’s position as a defensive hedge.Currency Rundown – XAU/USD Focused🇺🇸 USD – Strong Finish, But Cracks ShowDXY firmed late week, but gains were largely driven by shallow haven flows, not real yield strength.Surging long-term inflation expectations highlight a brewing macro divergence that could weaken USD’s appeal vs. gold over time.🇪🇺 EUR – No Fight LeftWeak Eurozone data and dovish ECB expectations provided little resistance to USD, but also failed to dent gold’s appeal.With EUR unable to rally on better global tone, XAU/USD remained an attractive alternative.🇬🇧 GBP – Gave Up GainsStrong wage data and hawkish BoE tones lifted GBP midweek.But soft retail sales and global risk-off reversed gains—gold resumed its climb as sterling faltered.🇨🇭 CHF – Losing Its ShineCHF underperformed despite risk-off conditions, underscoring gold’s superior safe-haven status.SNB’s dovish lean and low inflation leave the franc vulnerable—beneficial for XAU/CHF positioning.🇨🇦 CAD – Oil-Led Support FadesInitial strength from higher oil prices gave way to broader USD resilience.As oil slipped and BoC maintained caution, CAD lost ground while gold reasserted itself.🇦🇺 / 🇳🇿 AUD & NZD – Soft Commodities, Softer OutlooksEarly-week commodity optimism faded with poor Chinese industrial output and softer risk sentiment.With limited room for further tightening, AUD and NZD lacked the inflation-hedge strength gold offers.Gold Market Outlook – Bullish TiltXAU/USD may have started the week on the back foot, but the rebound was telling. Sticky inflation, Fed caution, and growing doubts about monetary policy efficacy are firming up gold’s medium-term outlook. Technically, gold remains in consolidation, but fundamentals are shifting in the bulls’ favor.Bottom line: As the narrative moves from disinflation to stagflation concerns, XAU/USD is regaining traction as the asset of choice for macro resilience.FX Cheat Sheet – Week of May 18–23, 2025Big Picture:Markets are at a pivotal point with flash PMIs, the RBA rate decision, and UK/Canada inflation data all hitting this week. Last week’s optimism from the US-China tariff pause faded quickly as mixed data, oil volatility, and Middle East risks returned. We're maintaining a pro-XAU/USD stance as macro risks continue to simmer.Global Macro Highlights:US-China Truce: 90-day tariff pause (US from 145% to 30%, China from 125% to 10%) lifted risk assets briefly.Oil Volatility: Iran sanctions spike prices, then nuclear deal rumors pull them back. CAD and oil-sensitive plays swinging hard.US Data Mixed: CPI 2.3%, soft PPI, flat retail, plunging sentiment. Confused Fed outlook = confused markets.New Trade Deals: US signs $600B deal with Saudi Arabia, $243.5B with Qatar. Good for global risk tone—short term.Gold Outlook: Elevated deficits, geopolitical tensions, and uncertain inflation path support gold. We stay bullish on XAU/USD.Central Bank Overview:Fed: Less dovish, Bostic sees only 1 cut this year. USD supported.BOJ: Gradually hawkish despite weak GDP. JPY resilient.BOE: Dovish cut done, but 7-2 vote shows hawks still strong. GBP steady.ECB: Cautious with cuts; ECB minutes on Thursday may clarify path.SNB: Talk of returning to negative rates creates CHF uncertainty.RBA: Decision on May 20. Strong jobs data complicates cut expectations.BOC: CPI and Retail Sales will drive CAD.Currency Scoreboard (Fundamental Bias Only):USD – 8.1 – Fed still hawkish, data resilient.JPY – 7.9 – Safe-haven strength and BOJ normalization.GBP – 7.4 – BOE hawks remain, inflation still a factor.EUR – 7.2 – Solid German data but still lagging overall.CHF – 6.8 – Policy uncertainty tempers haven appeal.CAD – 6.5 – Oil swings + soft CPI = caution.AUD – 6.3 – RBA risk, China exposure weigh.NZD – 6.1 – Weak fundamentals, China dependency.Pro-XAU/USD Factors:Geopolitical risks: Iran & Middle East tensions fuel gold demand.Deficits: US fiscal imbalance makes gold attractive as a hedge.Fed pricing: Market doubts deep cuts; gold holds firm.Inflation confusion: Mixed CPI/PPI = gold as insurance.CB divergence: Non-USD currencies not keeping up, gold looks better.Key Macro Themes This Week:US PMIs & Housing: Weakness = risk-off → gold supportUS-China Truce: Market skeptical, breakdown = gold higherRBA Decision (May 20): Cut = gold & JPY benefit; no cut = AUD bounceFed Speakers: Hawkish = USD steady; dovish = XAU/USD climbsIran & Oil Risk: Escalation = oil + gold rallyUK CPI: Hot print = GBP spike; potential gold-neutral to positiveMarket Scenarios:Base Case (60%) – Global PMIs soft, UK CPI in range, RBA on hold. USD firm, gold supported by deficits/geopolitics.Risk-Off (30%) – PMIs collapse, Iran tensions flare, CPI surprises = gold, JPY, CHF soar.Risk-On (10%) – PMIs strong, US-China extend truce, Iran deal inked = AUD/CAD rebound, gold holds due to deficit fears.Key Events This Week:May 19 – EU Economic Forecasts, China Loan Prime RateMay 20 – RBA Rate Decision, Canada CPIMay 21 – UK CPIMay 22 – Flash PMIs (US/UK/EU), ECB Minutes, BoJ SpeechMay 23 – UK Retail Sales, US New Home Sales, Australia PMIsMay 24 – Canada Retail SalesSummary View:We're leaning pro-XAU/USD amid rising fiscal concerns, geopolitical risks, and Fed ambiguity. Be ready for volatility, especially around data drops. Gold remains a strong hedge while major currencies wrestle with diverging policy paths.We hit our weekly target!

Hello,🪙 Gold Market Outlook – May 8, 2025📈 Current Price SnapshotSpot Gold (XAU/USD): $3,302/ozGold is holding firm above key support levels, signaling sustained bullish momentum. The $3,300 level has now been clearly breached and is acting as short-term support. If this level continues to hold, further upside continuation is expected, with a possible target of $3,500.🧭 Technical Outlook4H Major Support: $3,274.6371D Floor Support: $3,265.3281W Pivot Point (PP): $3,265.2031M Pivot Point (PP): $3,248.445"A test of the weekly/monthly pivot points is possible but uncertain, as current sentiment favors risk-on for gold, while the USD faces risk-off pressure."A pullback to support is possible, but it’s unlikely under the current macro and technical context.💬 Macro FundamentalsGold prices fell earlier today due to optimism surrounding a potential Trump–UK trade deal and easing geopolitical tensions. However, the market remains cautious as US-China officials are scheduled to meet in Switzerland. Meanwhile, China's central bank approved foreign exchange purchases by commercial banks, further boosting gold imports and supporting physical demand."Such measures are likely to keep supporting bullion demand."— Han Tan, Exinity Group🌍 Geopolitical Risk FactorIndia-Pakistan tensions have escalated, with Pakistan downing 12 Indian drones, which is contributing to increased safe-haven demand in the region."Potentially leading to an unquantifiable level of safe-haven demand."— Ole Hansen, Saxo BankTarget: $3,500. The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a BoostTradeWithTheTrend3344If the 1W/1M pivot points don’t hold as support, we could see a drop toward the trendline. If the trendline also gives way, expect a potential test of the 1M support structure. Just sharing this as a heads-up. It’s Friday, so best to stay patient and let the market do its thing.🧭 U.S. Economic & Policy Outlook – Q2 2025Theme: Navigating Structural Volatility with Robust Monetary and Market Design🔹 1. Big Picture: Fragile Growth, Elevated Uncertainty, and Strategic AdaptationThe U.S. economy is experiencing slowing momentum, but systemic stress remains contained thanks to robust frameworks and policy adaptability. Major developments shaping the outlook:Q1 GDP shrank by -0.3%, though a moderate Q2 rebound is expected.Inflation is still above target, despite significant disinflation over 2023–2024.Labor markets are softening, but not collapsing.Uncertainty is exceptionally high, with financial markets, policymakers, and consumers all signaling caution.🔔 Geopolitical Watch: Former President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese officials in Switzerland in an effort to de-escalate tariff tensions introduced in April.This introduces a high-volatility event risk, with potential global implications for trade, yields, and safe-haven flows—particularly bullish pressure on gold (XAU/USD).🧩 2. Policy Philosophy: Robustness as Insurance in an Uncertain WorldJohn C. Williams – Reykjavík Economic Conference (May 9, 2025)Williams emphasized that uncertainty isn’t an anomaly—it’s a permanent feature of monetary policymaking. His key arguments:Blend of rules and discretion ensures flexibility without losing credibility.Robust policy isn’t perfect but performs reliably across a range of models and conditions.Three Pillars of Robustness:Independence & Accountability: Central banks must be empowered and responsible.Transparency: Clear communication anchors expectations.Well-Anchored Inflation Expectations: Protects against spirals in uncertain times.💡 Fault tolerance, borrowed from engineering, is central: avoid policy settings where small misjudgments lead to large failures.📉 3. April Treasury Market Stress: A Case Study in ResilienceRoberto Perli – Short-Term Funding Markets Conference (May 9, 2025)Perli detailed how the April 2 surprise tariff announcement disrupted markets—but robust infrastructure contained the fallout:Long-term yields spiked ~30 bps and liquidity deteriorated, but no market dysfunction occurred.Treasury repo markets (SOFR, TGCR) stayed stable, with no major funding strains.The highly leveraged cash-futures basis trade held firm, unlike March 2020.The Fed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF) received strong positive feedback from early-settlement tests and will be regularized.Challenges remain (e.g., balance sheet frictions), but ongoing Fed refinements will target greater flexibility and dealer access.📊 4. Credit, Sentiment, and the Path AheadFOMC & Markets:Policymakers cite rising uncertainty (21 mentions in March FOMC minutes).Market-implied rate cuts are increasing amid growth concerns.Consumer Health:Sentiment surveys show financial anxiety rising, though inflation expectations remain anchored—a critical signal of Fed credibility holding.Credit Conditions:Delinquency rates are ticking higher, but not at systemic levels.Treasury and corporate bond markets are functioning with some stress, not disorder.Monetary Tools in Focus:The Fed is pursuing Quantitative Tightening (QT) via passive asset runoff.Open market operations and repo tools (like SRF) maintain liquidity and policy control.🪙 5. Strategic Themes: Supply Shocks, Gold, and Safe HavensApril tariffs represent a supply shock—they raise prices while lowering capacity (stagflationary).In such conditions, traditional policy tools lose precision.Investors are rotating into defensive assets like gold (XAU/USD) amid:Tariff risk.Rising uncertainty.Shaky growth outlook.Persistent inflation.📈 We remain pro-bullish on gold, which stands to benefit from:Real rate suppressionIncreased volatilityDemand for portfolio hedges🧭 Final Outlook: Resilience Now, But No Room for ComplacencyDespite weaker growth and financial stress in Q1–Q2 2025, the U.S. has avoided recession, maintained market functioning, and preserved monetary policy credibility.But risks are rising:Geopolitical tension from U.S.–China tariff disputes.Fragile consumer sentiment.Elevated rate volatility.Robust policy frameworks, clear communication, and safe-haven flows (especially into gold) will be essential stabilizers.🌍 Global Market Weekly RecapMay 5 – 9, 2025Markets flipped between fear and optimism this week as fresh trade negotiations, policy signals, and geopolitical risks kept traders on edge. What began with tariff-driven turbulence turned into a relief rally by Thursday — though risk appetite remained fragile heading into the weekend.🧠 Key Drivers This Week🟢 Risk-On MomentumTrade Hope Rises: Washington launched talks with 17 nations; Trump hinted deals were "weeks away." Markets responded with optimism.UK-US Pact: A major trade agreement with the UK sparked bullish sentiment midweek.Global Services Bounce: ISM Services PMI beat at 51.6, joined by stable prints from Japan (52.4) and the Eurozone (50.1).Pro-Market Signals: Trump moved to ease AI chip restrictions; a win for big tech bulls.Crypto Tailwinds: Arizona announced a Bitcoin Reserve Fund, boosting digital assets.🔴 Risk-Off TensionsTariff Shock: Early week fear spiked after a 100% tariff on foreign films triggered broader trade anxiety.Middle East Flashpoints: Escalations involving Israel and India added geopolitical risk.Mixed Fed Tone: The FOMC warned of sticky inflation and employment softness — adding to policy uncertainty.Record Trade Gap: The US March trade deficit ballooned to -$140.5B, denting dollar confidence midweek.OPEC+ Output Rise: Oil was pressured early on as producers added barrels, before rebounding.📊 Market Highlights by Asset💵 US Dollar Index (DXY) & YieldsVolatile Ride: The dollar surged early on tariffs and strong data, dipped after the trade deficit shock, then bounced back post-UK trade deal.Yields Moved in Tandem: 10-year Treasury yields followed the dollar’s lead, briefly dropping midweek before firming up Friday.Net Result: Slightly higher weekly close, reflecting cautious optimism.📈 S&P 500 (ES Futures)Sideways Movement: Snapped its multi-week win streak but held within a tight range.Big Thursday Pop: UK trade deal and easing AI restrictions boosted sentiment, especially in airlines and tech.Macro Crosscurrents: Growth optimism competed with inflation and policy worries.🪙 Gold (XAU/USD)💥 Spiked to a weekly high of $3,347.56 before pulling backEarly Flight to Safety: Rallied sharply on tariff fears and Middle East tensions.Midweek Strength: Bid higher on rising uncertainty and central bank easing.Brief Reversal: Powell’s “resilient economy” comments caused a dip as traders recalibrated rate cut odds.Resilient Finish: Held firm into Friday, underpinned by global uncertainty and central bank gold demand.🔔 Takeaway:Though it didn’t close at the weekly high, gold’s surge to $3,347.56 reflects strong underlying demand. With trade talks in flux and geopolitical risks unresolved, the bullish trend remains well-supported.🛢 Crude Oil (WTI)📈 Climbed 3.93% to settle above $60/barrelSlump to Surge: Dropped early on rising OPEC+ output, but rebounded strongly as tensions flared and demand outlook improved.Inventories & Sentiment: US stockpiles fell, reinforcing the demand recovery narrative.Policy Fuel: Trade deal optimism and China’s easing helped lift prices late week.₿ Bitcoin (BTC/USD)🚀 Closed above $103,000, up 6.16% on the weekRegulatory Tailwind: Arizona’s move to establish a Bitcoin Reserve Fund drew headlines and investor interest.Correlation Watch: Tracked risk-on flows but showed resilience even during pullbacks.🌐 Macro PulseFed on Hold: No policy changes; concern over inflation and jobs kept cuts off the table — for now.China Eases Again: RRR cut, lower 7-day repo, and a sixth consecutive gold reserve increase.European Improvement: Sentix Investor Confidence rose to -8.1 from -19.3.Canada & Australia Softness: Weak PMIs and permits signaled regional growth drag.🔚 Final WordMarkets are caught in a tug-of-war between rebounding global trade flows and lingering macro threats. Traders rotated between risk assets and safe havens, depending on which headlines dominated.✨ Gold’s jump to $3,347.56 — even without a weekly close at that level — is a reminder that when volatility and uncertainty spike, gold still commands the spotlight.Next week hinges on outcomes from the US-China summit and any concrete signs of trade de-escalation. Until then, expect choppy waters — and a watchful eye on gold.📅 U.S. April CPI Report Preview🗓️ Release Date: Tuesday, May 13, 2025🕰️ Time: 12:30 PM GMT🌐 (Use a time zone converter to localize)🔍 Why It Matters:This is the first inflation reading since Trump’s February tariff implementation. Initial tariffs rose to 145% but have recently been reduced to 30%, calming fears of immediate consumer price spikes.Fed Chair Powell remains in “wait and see” mode, so CPI results could be pivotal in shaping rate cut expectations this summer.🔢 Market Forecasts (as of May 12 @ 2:13 AM GMT)Indicator ForecastPreviousHeadline CPI m/m +0.3%-0.1%Core CPI m/m +0.2%+0.1%Headline CPI y/y +2.5%+2.4%📈 Inflation Signals to Watch✅ Upside Risk (CPI surprise higher → USD bullish)🏦 FOMC flagged elevated inflation risks in May📊 ISM Services Prices (April): Rose to 65.1🏭 S&P Global PMIs (April):• Manufacturing firms reported sharp cost increases• Services firms raised prices at the fastest pace since Jan🌟 Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Prices Index jumped to 48.4 (highest since mid-2022)🛍️ Dallas Fed Services: Selling Prices Index rose 8.4 points🔹 If inflation beats, expect modest USD strength, especially vs EUR, JPY, AUD🔹 Fed likely stays cautious → limited impact on immediate rate path❌ Downside Risk (CPI miss → USD bearish)💵 Avg. Hourly Earnings (April): Slowed to +0.2% m/m😐 Consumer Confidence (April): Lower income expectations🏗️ Richmond Fed Manufacturing:• Prices Received: 3.68 → 3.03• Prices Paid: 5.18 → 4.89🔻 A weak print (e.g. +0.1%) could trigger broad USD selling, led by USD/JPY & USD/CHF🔻 Rate cut bets would likely move forward🌐 Macro Backdrop & Market Mood🇺🇸➡️🇨🇳 Tariffs lowered to 30% after weekend U.S.-China talks in Switzerland⚠️ Market still reacts more to trade headlines than data🕊️ Fed remains patient, even with signs of higher inflation📉 USD Reaction MapScenario CPI Print Likely USD Reaction🔺 Strong CPI+0.3% headline, +0.2% coreUSD strength, especially vs JPY, EUR⚖️ Neutral CPIMatches forecast Range-bound; reaction depends on risk tone🔻 Weak CPI+0.1% headline/core Broad USD selloff; rate cut odds spike🎯 Pro Trading Tips📊 Headline CPI = short-term reaction, Core CPI = sustained trend🧘‍♂️ Wait 15–30 minutes post-release before entering to avoid volatility traps📰 Watch for Fed commentary & trade headlines that could override CPI moves🔍 Headline:Inflation Expectations Mixed; Financial Outlook for Households Weakens📊 Inflation Expectations1-Year Ahead: Unchanged at 3.6%3-Year Ahead: Increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2% (highest since July 2022)5-Year Ahead: Decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7%Additional Notes:Inflation uncertainty increased across all horizonsDisagreement (spread between optimistic and pessimistic views) rose for 1- and 3-year expectations, but dipped slightly for 5-year outlook🏠 Home & Commodity PricesHome price growth expectation: Increased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.3%(Stable between 3.0% and 3.3% since Aug 2023)Expected Year-Ahead Changes:Gasoline: +0.3% → 3.5%Medical Care: +0.8% → 8.7%College Tuition: +2.4% → 9.1%Rent: +1.8% → 9.0%Food: -0.1% → 5.1%💼 Labor Market OutlookExpected earnings growth (1Y): Down 0.3% → 2.5% (lowest since Dec 2023)Unemployment probability (1Y): Up 0.1% → 44.1% (highest since April 2020)Job loss risk (1Y): Down 0.4% → 15.3%Voluntary job change likelihood (1Y): Up 0.2% → 18.2% (led by under-40s and lower-income groups)Chance of finding a job within 3 months if laid off: Down 1.9% → 49.2% (lowest since March 2021)💵 Household FinancesExpected income growth (1Y): Down 0.2% → 2.6% (lowest since April 2021)Expected household spending growth (1Y): Up 0.3% → 5.2%Probability of missing a debt payment (next 3 months): Up 0.3% → 13.9%Expected change in taxes (1Y): Up 0.1% → 3.3% (still below 12-month average of 3.7%)Expected growth in government debt (1Y): Up 0.2% → 4.8% (still near record low)Probability savings rates will rise in 12 months: Up 0.4% → 26.5%Sentiment:Current financial situation: More households report being worse offOutlook for future financial situation (1Y): Sharp deterioration reported📈 Market ExpectationsProbability stock prices will be higher in 12 months: Up 1.9% → 35.7%📝 About the SurveyConducted by: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Center for Microeconomic DataSample: ~1,300 U.S. householdsPeriod: April 1–30, 2025Method: Internet-based rotating panel (respondents participate up to 12 months)Key Benefit: Tracks changes in individual expectations over time

Hello,Bitcoin Bearish Outlook – April 2025Market Structure & Technical OverviewBitcoin continues to underperform as a safe haven asset, falling short of the optimism once compared to gold. Following a consistent formation of lower highs, BTC has once again broken down—hinting at a potential continuation of this bearish trend.Current Price: Just below the 1M Pivot Point (PP) at $84621.067.This area is crucial — if price accepts this level as resistance, we are likely to see further downside.The most recent 1M high stands at $88,781.70 — a level to watch but currently being respected as a ceiling.Should the price fail to reclaim 84k, the next target is the 1Y PP at $80,283.483. A rejection here opens the door for a move toward strong 1M support at $72,345.065.Below that, 1Y PP structural support comes into question. If the support gives out, the maximum decline target sits near $56,000, which would represent a full reset of the bullish macro narrative.Fundamental Headwinds: A Storm BrewsTrump's Latest Move: President Trump has repealed the IRS rule expanding the "broker" definition to decentralized exchanges, a move aimed at deregulating crypto and laying groundwork for a potential U.S. Bitcoin reserve.China’s Crackdown Intensifies:China’s courts and local governments are actively liquidating seized crypto through offshore channels.The lack of a centralized system raises corruption concerns, but near-consensus is forming around formal asset recognition and centralized liquidation.Despite a domestic ban, China holds 15,000 BTC, potentially making it the 14th largest holder globally.The decentralized anonymity principle of cryptocurrency is under increasing threat, as both China and the U.S. shift toward centralized control, regulation, and even reserve-building strategies. This movement contradicts the original ethos of Bitcoin, leading to a bearish sentiment among long-term holders.Sentiment SnapshotMetric StatusTechnical Structure BearishMarket Sentiment Neutral, leaning bearishMacro Fundamentals BearishKey Resistance (1M PP) $84,621.067Next Support (1Y PP) $80,283.483Strong Support (1M) $72,345.065Max Decline Scenario $56,000📉 Mark these key levels:$88,781.70 – Previous 1M High$84,621.067– 1M Pivot (Current Resistance)$80,283.483 – 1Y Pivot (Mid Support)$72,345.065 – 1M Strong Support$56,000 – Max Bearish TargetOverlay sentiment zones:Green (above 88K): BullishOrange (between $80k–88K): NeutralRed (below $80k): Bearish ContinuationThe Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a BoostTradeWithTheTrend3344

Hello,🟥 XAUUSD – Pro Bearish PlaybookResistance Breached, But the Rally Looks ExhaustedGold (XAUUSD) has just smashed through the 1M strong resistance at 3272.314, but let’s not kid ourselves — this move is running on fumes. The rally is heavily overbought, and macro sentiment is shifting fast.🗞 Macro Trigger: Tariff War CoolingPresident Trump has thrown a curveball, suggesting the U.S. may hold off on further tariff hikes, citing concerns about the impact on American consumers.“At a certain point, people aren’t gonna buy,” he said.He’s not ruling out new tariffs entirely, but the tone has clearly softened. Even China is stepping back, opting not to match U.S. hikes — and now the TikTok deal is on pause until trade talks settle. This reduces geopolitical risk, and that’s a red flag for gold bulls.📉 Why We're Bearish:Overbought Conditions: Gold is bloated. RSI, momentum, and fundamentals all scream “top-heavy.”Safe-Haven Demand Shrinking: With tariffs cooling and equities catching a bid, gold demand is set to fade.False Breakout Potential: The push above 3272.314 may be a trap if we don’t get follow-through.🧭 Bearish Strategy – The Breakdown PlanWe’re not just throwing darts — here’s how we map the fall:🔻 Level💰 Price📌 Role🟧 1D Pivot PointUse live dataKey trigger – watch for bearish confirmation below here.🟨 1M Resistance (Now Suspect Support)3272.314Already breached; likely won’t hold on retest.🟥 1W Pivot Point3146.658Next major target if momentum continues.🚨 Bear Max Target2466.313Full breakdown scenario if risk-off vanishes.🔥 Execution Plan – What to Do✅ Wait for confirmation below 1D Pivot.🔻 Short the rejection at 3272.314 if it acts as resistance on retest.🎯 Target 3146.658, then trail stops toward 2466.313 on continued weakness.🚫 Avoid blind entries – confirmation only. This isn’t guesswork.We’re not chasing gold higher at these levels. We’re waiting for the turn, and when it confirms — we strike.The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a BoostTradeWithTheTrend3344

Hello,XAUUSD has once again surged to a record high of 3245.515 this Friday, driven by a weakening dollar and renewed U.S.-China tensions. As uncertainty grows, gold continues to shine as a safe haven asset—bolstered by fears of a potential recession and lingering inflation concerns.The rally is further supported by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting interest rates. While some analysts anticipate a short-term pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, fueled by rate cut hopes, global instability, and ongoing strong demand.Currently, gold is hovering around a key resistance level at 3272.103. This area could mark the final push—designed to trap overly optimistic buyers—before a potential bearish reversal. If this resistance holds, it could trigger a significant downside move, possibly targeting the 1-year pivot point (PP) at 2466.313. Although current conditions may not seem to support such a drop, these are exactly the kind of unexpected moves market manipulators might orchestrate.Remember what happened when Trump posted bullish comments followed by a 90-day tariff break? Stocks temporarily soared. The takeaway? Anything is possible. One could argue there's an effort to stabilize the USD, masked by public optimism that doesn’t always reflect economic reality.This all points to a potential bigger play unfolding—a move that temporarily strengthens the dollar, possibly as part of a broader long-term strategy. We’re likely to see sharp bursts of USD strength followed by weakness, creating a rollercoaster pattern as the U.S. works to rebuild and gradually reinforce its currency.Trump’s current leverage comes from the power of the U.S. consumer—arguably among the most valuable in the world. Over time, more countries may be compelled to strike favorable deals with the U.S. to avoid economic fallout from imposed tariffs. It’s like a trial period for a premium service: first, you get a taste of the benefits without tariffs, and once you're accustomed to it, the terms change—creating a stark contrast that acts as a negotiation tool.This “shock factor” strategy—swinging from favorable to harsh conditions—puts other nations in a position of urgency and increases the likelihood of deal-making. While technicals and fundamentals still play a role in the market, tariffs are currently the main catalyst behind the scenes.In summary:📊 XAUUSD Market Overview – April 2025🟡 Current StatusLatest High: 3245.515 🔺 (Record-breaking)Key Resistance: 3272.103Trend: Bullish momentum fueled by:Weaker USD 💵Fed rate cut expectations 📉Recession & inflation fears 😟Geopolitical tension (U.S.–China) 🌏⚠️🔮 Potential ScenariosConditionMarket Reaction🔼 Break above 3272.103More upside likely – bull trend continuation 🐂📈🔽 Rejection at 3272.103Bearish reversal – trap for late buyers 🐻📉🎯 Bearish Target:1Y Pivot Point @ 2466.313📌 Underlying NarrativeUSD Stabilization Strategy: Behind-the-scenes moves to strengthen dollar temporarily.Tariff Manipulation: Market shocks used as leverage in international trade talks.Trump Factor: Tariffs → Shock value → Deals → Strengthen USD via negotiation.Psychology: "Free trial" tactic – benefits removed to push for favorable deals.📈 Key TakeawayIf 3272.103 holds as resistance → Bearish move aheadIf broken → Expect continued bullish momentumGood luck out there!The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1D-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a BoostTradeWithTheTrend3344📈 Cheat Sheet: Greenback Gearing UpIt was a turbulent week—but underneath the chaos, the U.S. dollar may be setting the stage for a powerful comeback. As tariffs flew and markets scrambled, a key narrative began to emerge: the dollar isn’t down for the count—it’s winding up.🌐 Global Headlines Set the StageFrom Washington to Beijing, the tariff drama ignited a storm across assets. But while other currencies wobbled under political pressure, the U.S. dollar showed signs of resilience, with potential upside catalysts stacking up beneath the surface.U.S. Tariff Strategy Hardened: No more delays, no more rumors. The U.S. made clear that tariffs—especially on China—are here to stay, reinforcing its negotiating position. That kind of certainty often acts as a magnet for capital, especially when global policy is in flux.Inflation Data Shocks the Market: While some saw weaker CPI/PPI as bearish, the Fed’s refusal to flinch on inflation suggests the next rate cut isn’t a done deal. The dollar thrives in a hawkish pause.Bond Market Mayhem: Yields spiked and Treasuries sold off, but here’s the real takeaway: investors are demanding more return to hold U.S. debt, and that rising yield premium? That’s a green light for dollar bulls.📊 Chart Watch: A Dollar Rebound in Motion?🟩 Dollar Index Futures:After shedding -3% in one of its worst weeks in years, the Dollar Index is now approaching oversold levels, flirting with key support from late 2022. This is often where big reversals ignite. Traders are eyeing this setup like hawks.🔵 10-Yr Treasury Yield vs. Dollar Index:Yields are soaring—up over 50bps this week! As the blue line surges, it's a matter of time before the greenback catches up. Dollar and yield divergences don’t last long.💡 Risk-On = Risky… For Other CurrenciesOther asset classes partied—gold broke above $3,240, stocks roared, and crypto caught fire—but it’s worth asking: what happens when the music stops?China’s all-in retaliation pushes economic uncertainty sky-high. Who benefits when safe-haven flows return? The dollar.The ECB and RBA are primed to cut rates. Relative rate spreads? Tilting in the dollar’s favor.BOJ may pause hikes, and China is propping up the yuan manually. That artificial pressure? Unsustainable.🔮 Setup for the Week Ahead: Dollar’s Coiled SpringWe’re heading into next week with:Spiking Treasury yieldsGlobal growth fears mountingRate divergence brewingA wildly crowded short-dollar tradeIf even one of these narratives breaks in the dollar’s favor, we could see a snapback rally that leaves gold, crypto, and equities gasping.🟢 The next dollar move could be violent—and higher.PP Update: 1W PP 3146.658, 1D PP 3216.798upper target of 3300 reached

Hello,Gold edged higher on Tuesday, supported by a weaker dollar and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, despite pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields. Spot gold rose 0.1% to 2984.16 per ounce by mid-afternoon, while futures settled 0.5% higher at 2990.20.The 10-year Treasury yield hit a one-week high, dampening gold's appeal. Still, ongoing trade uncertainty and potential U.S. interest rate cuts kept the outlook bullish. A break above 3,055 could open the path to 3130, with stronger resistance near 3272.314, while weakness below 3,000 might push prices down to 2950-2930.Market anxiety intensified after President Trump’s announcement of a 104% tariff on Chinese goods, fueling safe-haven demand. Gold, up 15% this year, also benefited from a weaker dollar, which makes it cheaper for foreign buyers.We now await Fed meeting minutes for clues on rate cuts, with a 40% chance priced in for May. Expectations of easing could drive gold prices higher in the near term. The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1D-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a BoostTradeWithTheTrend3344Trump announces a 90-day suspension of tariffs for select countries, while sharply increasing tariffs on China to 125%, effective immediately. Significant market volatility is likely ahead!The U.S. CPI report for March 2025, set to be released on April 10, is expected to show a slight monthly increase in core inflation (+0.3%) and a slowdown in headline inflation (+0.1% m/m, +2.5% y/y). Despite signs of cooling inflation from recent wage and services data, markets remain on edge due to rising tariff-related price pressures. If the data meets expectations or comes in weaker, the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken, especially against safe-haven currencies like JPY CHF, and XAU, as it would reinforce a dovish Fed outlook. However, any upside inflation surprise could revive concerns about persistent inflation, supporting the dollar—particularly against risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD. Overall, the bias leans toward dollar weakness unless CPI significantly exceeds forecasts.

Hello,XAU/USD has been on a strong upward trajectory, repeatedly reaching new all-time highs. Gold has just recorded its best quarter since 1986, solidifying its status as the ultimate safe haven amid economic uncertainty. Factors such as Trump’s trade war and the weakening U.S. dollar—on track for its worst year since the 2008 financial crisis—have further reinforced gold’s appeal as a reliable hedge.Currently, gold is testing a significant resistance zone. If this level holds, the price could move toward 2720, provided key conditions are met along the way. A strong early signal would be whether the price remains comfortably below the 1W PP, which could pave the way for movement toward the 1M PP. Should this level act as resistance, the path to 2720 becomes more likely.While such a scenario may seem unlikely under current market conditions, history has shown that when things appear strongest, declines often follow. Stay prepared, and good luck! The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1D-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a BoostTradeWithTheTrend3344Updated PP are: 1D PP 3075.3, 1W PP 3058.052Updated 1M PP 3036.523While a potential dip towards 2937 remains possible, the intensifying tariff war suggests that the upside will likely prevail from this point forward, with momentum targeting 3272.314!

Hello, XAUUSD is expected to face initial downside pressure, with the first key level to test being the 1-month pivot point (PP) at 2644.402. If the price establishes itself below this level, it may then target the 3-month low at 2536.855, followed by the 6-month low at 2353.13. Each confirmed breach of these levels could signal further downside potential.Key Developments Recap:Strong U.S. jobs data (NFP: 256K vs. 200K forecast) highlighted economic resilience and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts.Mixed signals from Trump on trade policy have added to market uncertainty.Fed officials have broadly indicated a preference for gradual rate adjustments, maintaining a cautious stance on cuts.The U.S. monetary policy remains robust, with solid job data reducing the likelihood of rate cuts. The current drivers include labor market strength, a hawkish Fed outlook, and rising yields.Upcoming Key Releases:U.S. CPI (Wednesday): A critical indicator for the Fed’s rate path, with consensus expecting 2.4% y/y. A stronger-than-expected CPI reading could reinforce gradual USD strength.In the long term, there is potential for the price to test the 1-year pivot point (PP), depending on how these factors evolve. No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a BoostTradeWithTheTrend3344