Technical analysis by TradeWithTheTrend3344 about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (5/18/2025)

Hello,📅 Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Outlook – May 18–24, 2025Current Price: $3,203.47RSI (1D): 53.54 → Neutral✅ Base Case: Mild Bullish / Range-Bound📈 Bias: Neutral to Bullish🎯 Target Range: $3,230 – $3,280📊 Probability: ~65%Gold is consolidating above prior breakout levels with neutral momentum (not overbought). This suggests more upside is possible unless bearish catalysts emerge.🔍 Key Support & Resistance LevelsSupport 1: $3,170 – $3,160 (prior breakout zone, likely defended)Support 2: $3,120 – $3,100 (deeper dip buy zone)Resistance 1: $3,230 – $3,250 (minor ceiling — likely tested soon)Resistance 2: $3,280 – $3,300 (bullish extension target)📊 Weekly Scenarios1. Mild Bullish / Sideways (Base Case)🟢 Probability: 65%🔁 Price holds above $3,160🎯 Target: $3,230 – $3,2802. Bullish Breakout🟡 Probability: 20%🚀 Trigger: Geopolitical risk or Fed dovish shift🎯 Target: $3,300+3. Bearish Pullback🔴 Probability: 15%❌ Trigger: Strong USD, hot data, or yield spike🎯 Target: $3,160 → $3,100🧭 Trade Idea (Example Strategy)Long Entry: Around $3,170Stop Loss: Below $3,145Take Profit: $3,230 / $3,280Risk/Reward: Favorable if price holds support The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a BoostTradeWithTheTrend3344FX Weekly Recap (May 12–16, 2025)Gold regains footing as inflation expectations surge, Fed hesitatesWeekly Market Narrative – Gold Bullish LensGold weathered a volatile week that began with a brief risk-on rally driven by US-China tariff rollback hopes, but the optimism faded fast. As the week progressed, the market’s attention shifted decisively toward resurgent inflation concerns and uncertain Fed policy, fueling renewed demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Despite a late-week USD rebound, the setup for gold remains constructive, with real yields under pressure and market doubts about monetary policy effectiveness mounting.XAU/USD Tailwinds This WeekUS Inflation Data Mixed, but Long-Term Risks MountingCPI and PPI came in softer, briefly pulling yields lower and supporting gold upside.However, UMich 5–10Y inflation expectations jumped to 7.3%, shocking markets and reviving gold’s safe-haven and inflation-hedge appeal.Fed Communication – Cautious, Not DovishOfficials pushed back on imminent cuts, keeping short-term rates elevated.But persistent inflation and flat growth expectations mean real yields may soften, creating a bullish environment for gold.Risk Assets Wobble Late in WeekEquities lost steam after the initial rally, reinforcing gold’s position as a defensive hedge.Currency Rundown – XAU/USD Focused🇺🇸 USD – Strong Finish, But Cracks ShowDXY firmed late week, but gains were largely driven by shallow haven flows, not real yield strength.Surging long-term inflation expectations highlight a brewing macro divergence that could weaken USD’s appeal vs. gold over time.🇪🇺 EUR – No Fight LeftWeak Eurozone data and dovish ECB expectations provided little resistance to USD, but also failed to dent gold’s appeal.With EUR unable to rally on better global tone, XAU/USD remained an attractive alternative.🇬🇧 GBP – Gave Up GainsStrong wage data and hawkish BoE tones lifted GBP midweek.But soft retail sales and global risk-off reversed gains—gold resumed its climb as sterling faltered.🇨🇭 CHF – Losing Its ShineCHF underperformed despite risk-off conditions, underscoring gold’s superior safe-haven status.SNB’s dovish lean and low inflation leave the franc vulnerable—beneficial for XAU/CHF positioning.🇨🇦 CAD – Oil-Led Support FadesInitial strength from higher oil prices gave way to broader USD resilience.As oil slipped and BoC maintained caution, CAD lost ground while gold reasserted itself.🇦🇺 / 🇳🇿 AUD & NZD – Soft Commodities, Softer OutlooksEarly-week commodity optimism faded with poor Chinese industrial output and softer risk sentiment.With limited room for further tightening, AUD and NZD lacked the inflation-hedge strength gold offers.Gold Market Outlook – Bullish TiltXAU/USD may have started the week on the back foot, but the rebound was telling. Sticky inflation, Fed caution, and growing doubts about monetary policy efficacy are firming up gold’s medium-term outlook. Technically, gold remains in consolidation, but fundamentals are shifting in the bulls’ favor.Bottom line: As the narrative moves from disinflation to stagflation concerns, XAU/USD is regaining traction as the asset of choice for macro resilience.FX Cheat Sheet – Week of May 18–23, 2025Big Picture:Markets are at a pivotal point with flash PMIs, the RBA rate decision, and UK/Canada inflation data all hitting this week. Last week’s optimism from the US-China tariff pause faded quickly as mixed data, oil volatility, and Middle East risks returned. We're maintaining a pro-XAU/USD stance as macro risks continue to simmer.Global Macro Highlights:US-China Truce: 90-day tariff pause (US from 145% to 30%, China from 125% to 10%) lifted risk assets briefly.Oil Volatility: Iran sanctions spike prices, then nuclear deal rumors pull them back. CAD and oil-sensitive plays swinging hard.US Data Mixed: CPI 2.3%, soft PPI, flat retail, plunging sentiment. Confused Fed outlook = confused markets.New Trade Deals: US signs $600B deal with Saudi Arabia, $243.5B with Qatar. Good for global risk tone—short term.Gold Outlook: Elevated deficits, geopolitical tensions, and uncertain inflation path support gold. We stay bullish on XAU/USD.Central Bank Overview:Fed: Less dovish, Bostic sees only 1 cut this year. USD supported.BOJ: Gradually hawkish despite weak GDP. JPY resilient.BOE: Dovish cut done, but 7-2 vote shows hawks still strong. GBP steady.ECB: Cautious with cuts; ECB minutes on Thursday may clarify path.SNB: Talk of returning to negative rates creates CHF uncertainty.RBA: Decision on May 20. Strong jobs data complicates cut expectations.BOC: CPI and Retail Sales will drive CAD.Currency Scoreboard (Fundamental Bias Only):USD – 8.1 – Fed still hawkish, data resilient.JPY – 7.9 – Safe-haven strength and BOJ normalization.GBP – 7.4 – BOE hawks remain, inflation still a factor.EUR – 7.2 – Solid German data but still lagging overall.CHF – 6.8 – Policy uncertainty tempers haven appeal.CAD – 6.5 – Oil swings + soft CPI = caution.AUD – 6.3 – RBA risk, China exposure weigh.NZD – 6.1 – Weak fundamentals, China dependency.Pro-XAU/USD Factors:Geopolitical risks: Iran & Middle East tensions fuel gold demand.Deficits: US fiscal imbalance makes gold attractive as a hedge.Fed pricing: Market doubts deep cuts; gold holds firm.Inflation confusion: Mixed CPI/PPI = gold as insurance.CB divergence: Non-USD currencies not keeping up, gold looks better.Key Macro Themes This Week:US PMIs & Housing: Weakness = risk-off → gold supportUS-China Truce: Market skeptical, breakdown = gold higherRBA Decision (May 20): Cut = gold & JPY benefit; no cut = AUD bounceFed Speakers: Hawkish = USD steady; dovish = XAU/USD climbsIran & Oil Risk: Escalation = oil + gold rallyUK CPI: Hot print = GBP spike; potential gold-neutral to positiveMarket Scenarios:Base Case (60%) – Global PMIs soft, UK CPI in range, RBA on hold. USD firm, gold supported by deficits/geopolitics.Risk-Off (30%) – PMIs collapse, Iran tensions flare, CPI surprises = gold, JPY, CHF soar.Risk-On (10%) – PMIs strong, US-China extend truce, Iran deal inked = AUD/CAD rebound, gold holds due to deficit fears.Key Events This Week:May 19 – EU Economic Forecasts, China Loan Prime RateMay 20 – RBA Rate Decision, Canada CPIMay 21 – UK CPIMay 22 – Flash PMIs (US/UK/EU), ECB Minutes, BoJ SpeechMay 23 – UK Retail Sales, US New Home Sales, Australia PMIsMay 24 – Canada Retail SalesSummary View:We're leaning pro-XAU/USD amid rising fiscal concerns, geopolitical risks, and Fed ambiguity. Be ready for volatility, especially around data drops. Gold remains a strong hedge while major currencies wrestle with diverging policy paths.We hit our weekly target!