Technical analysis by TradeWithTheTrend3344 about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (5/24/2025)

Hello,🪙 XAU/USD Weekly Outlook📅 May 25 – 30, 2025📍 Current Price: $3,355.35📈 RSI (1D): 57.99 — Neutral to mild bullish momentum🔮 Summary & Key LevelsGold remains bullish, supported by USD weakness, geopolitical tension, and safe-haven demand. Without hawkish shocks, expect a test of $3,440+ this week.LevelSignificanceLikelihood$3,300 – $3,355Support zone, dip-buying likely🔵 High$3,355 – $3,390Current range, mild upside grind🟡 Moderate$3,390 – $3,440Key resistance test🟢 Likely if USD weak$3,440 – $3,500Breakout extension zone🟠 Conditional (Fed/dovish data needed)< $3,280Bearish invalidation🔴 Unlikely barring major USD reversal🧭 Directional Bias:Bullish with breakout potential — driven by rising U.S. debt concerns, Fed rate cut talk, and risk aversion.🔍 Supporting FactorsUS Dollar Weakness:USD dropped 1.4–2.3% vs majors; JPY & CHF gained as safe havens.Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit rating and weak Treasury auctions amplify fiscal stress.Trump’s tariff threats revive trade war fears, pressuring USD further.Fed & Inflation Watch:Fed speakers mixed; Waller hinted at cuts if tariffs escalate.May 31 Core PCE inflation data critical — softer print could ignite breakout.Safe-Haven Rotation:JPY & CHF strength signals risk hedging.Global tensions, equity fragility, Middle East unrest support gold demand.🌐 Global Macro Highlights & Gold ImplicationsRegionHighlights Gold Impact🇺🇸 USFiscal strain, downgrade, mixed data🟢 Bullish🇪🇺 EurozoneHawkish ECB, stable inflation🟡 Mildly bullish🇬🇧 UKStrong CPI, Brexit optimism⚪ Neutral🇯🇵 JapanHawkish BoJ pivot, rising inflation🟢 Safe-haven driver🇨🇭 SwitzerlandCHF rally, deflation concerns🟢 Risk-off tone🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿Mixed data, dovish bias⚪ Commodity FX support📅 Key Events to Watch (May 25–30)Date Event Impact on GoldDailyFed speakers (Waller, Bostic)🟠 Dovish tone supports goldFridayUS Core PCE Inflation🟥 Major catalyst — soft print = breakout riskAnytimeTrump tariff announcements🟥 Volatility spike = bullish catalystOngoingRisk sentiment & equity volatility🟠 Supports safe-haven flows✅ Bottom LineGold’s technical and macro setup is strong. A push above $3,390 could open a move toward $3,440–$3,470, especially if Friday’s PCE data disappoints or trade tensions escalate. Downside limited unless USD sentiment reverses sharply.The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a BoostTradeWithTheTrend3344⚠️ Brace for Volatility: What’s Driving the FX Market This Week📅 May 26–30, 2025This week is packed with high-stakes events and policy shifts. Expect strong moves across FX pairs as the market digests:🏦 Central bank rate decisions📉 Rising global uncertainty💥 Escalating U.S. fiscal and trade tensions🔙 What Just Happened? — Last Week’s Market MoversThe U.S. dollar suffered a broad selloff, losing 1.4% to 2.3% against major peers — one of its worst performances in months.🧨 Key Catalysts:U.S. credit rating downgradedDeficit-widening tax bill passedTariff threats on EU goods set for June 1Global risk sentiment turned defensive🌍 Macro Backdrop: What’s Shaping Market Sentiment🔺 U.S. Fiscal Alarm BellsCredit downgrade + massive tax plan raise concerns about long-term debt sustainabilityTreasury yields spiked, particularly on the 30-year bond⚔️ Trade War Redux50% tariff threat on EU imports has revived global trade tension worriesTriggered sharp risk-off reactions across assets📈 Europe Gets a Sentiment Boost"Brexit reset" optimism and sticky inflation supported EUR and GBPRegion benefited from USD weakness and relatively stable macro expectations🏛 Central Bank Signals🏦 Bank🗣️ Tone💬 Highlights🇺🇸 FedMixedHawkish speeches overshadowed by fiscal policy concerns🇨🇳 PBOCDovishFirst benchmark rate cut in 7 months (1Y: 3.1% → 3.0%)🇦🇺 RBADovishCut 25bps; discussed deeper cuts; downgraded outlook🇪🇺 ECBUnclearSome officials hint at pausing cuts; others still dovish📊 Economic Highlights from Last Week📍 Region🧾 Data📈 Surprise?🇯🇵 JapanCore CPI 3.5%Beat; +13% m/m in machinery orders🇨🇦 CanadaCPI 1.7% y/yCooled below BoC target🇬🇧 U.K.CPI 3.5% y/yHigher than expected; retail sales jumped🇺🇸 U.S.PMIs 52.3Stable readings, but ignored due to fiscal concerns📋 FX Fundamentals LeaderboardBased on monetary stance, macro resilience, and risk sentiment alignment (10 = strongest).RankCurrencyScoreRationale🥇 1🇯🇵 JPY8.9Hawkish BoJ + global safe-haven demand🥈 2🇨🇭 CHF7.8Traditional safe-haven flows; SNB firm🥉 3🇪🇺 EUR6.8USD weakness + inflation resilience4🇬🇧 GBP6.3Hot inflation supports BoE patience5🇳🇿 NZD6.1Pre-RBNZ rally; mixed local data6🇨🇦 CAD5.9CPI drop + oil volatility weigh7🇦🇺 AUD5.7RBA dovish pivot + China exposure8🇺🇸 USD4.2Lost safe-haven status, fiscal drag⚠️ Themes Driving This Week’s Market1. 🧾 U.S. Fiscal Risk SurgeTrigger: Credit downgrade + deficit-heavy tax planImpact: Weighs on USD and Treasuries2. ⚔️ Trade War Threats EscalateTrigger: 50% EU tariff warningImpact: Risk-off flows into JPY, CHF; hits AUD, NZD, CAD3. 🏦 Central Bank DivergenceTrigger: BoJ hawkish; RBA, RBNZ leaning dovishImpact: JPY outperformance, pressure on AUD/NZD4. 🔄 Safe-Haven RotationTrigger: USD loses appeal amid internal risksImpact: CHF, JPY become primary risk-averse plays5. 🛢️ Oil Price VolatilityTrigger: Price swings on OPEC+ uncertainty ($64 → $60.30)Impact: CAD and other commodities-linked FX struggle📆 Key Events Ahead (GMT)🗓️ Wednesday – May 28🇦🇺 CPI – Inflation check for the RBA (01:30)🇳🇿 RBNZ Rate Decision – 25bp cut expected (02:00)🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes – Insights on trade & fiscal views (18:00)🗓️ Thursday – May 29🇺🇸 Preliminary GDP Q1 – Key growth metric (12:30)🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims – Labor strength signal (12:30)🇬🇧 BoE’s Bailey Speech – Post-CPI rate clues (19:00)🗓️ Friday – May 30🇪🇺 German CPI (All Day) – Important for ECB watchers🇨🇦 Monthly GDP – CAD performance hinge (12:30)🇺🇸 Core PCE – Fed’s favored inflation gauge (12:30)🧠 Potential Market Scenarios✅ Base Case (60%)USD remains under pressureJPY, CHF stay firm on risk-off flowsNZD slips post-RBNZ cut⚠️ Risk-Off Escalation (30%)Tariff threat materializesCommodity FX tumbleYields spike further on deficit worries📈 Surprise Recovery (10%)Tariff rollback or deal optimismU.S. data stays resilientUSD stages short-covering bounce✅ Trader NotesAdjust position sizes ahead of key eventsUse clear exit levels given rising intraday volatilityWatch for liquidity gaps, especially around central bank updates and Friday’s Core PCE dataWhiplash Week: Dollar Surges, Gold Swings, and Central Banks Hold FireGlobal & FX Weekly Recap + Pro XAU/USD ViewMay 26–30, 2025⚡️ Markets in Flux: Legal Limbo, Central Bank Caution, and Risk RouletteWhat started as a "relief rally" turned into a chaotic week for global markets, dominated by mixed macro data, a court ruling on U.S. tariffs, and a return of China risk. From FX to commodities, asset classes moved in sync with political headlines more than fundamentals. And in the middle of this storm? Gold (XAU/USD), caught between fading inflation fears and renewed geopolitical tensions.🧭 FX Market Themes🇺🇸 USD – A Ping-Pong RideBullish catalysts: Trump’s tariff delay (July 9 deadline), surging consumer confidence (98 vs. 84 forecast), and Fed “patience” on cuts.Bearish triggers: A federal court struck down tariffs (trade uncertainty), GDP revised lower, jobless claims ticked up, and Core PCE softened (+0.1% MoM).Result: USD rallied hard early but retraced as the legal fog deepened.🇪🇺 EUR – The Resilient EuroHeld ground despite weak German and French data. Tariff relief and strong sentiment (EU Econ Sentiment: 94.8) kept it afloat.ECB stayed cautious; no rate cut likely before September.🇬🇧 GBP – Top Performer (Early)Hit 3-year highs ($1.3594) before month-end flows dragged it down. Benefited from improved trade sentiment and “risk-on” positioning.🇨🇦 CAD – From Laggard to LeaderStrong GDP (+2.2% y/y) and income data flipped the loonie into the top G10 performer by Friday.🇨🇭 CHF – Risk BarometerSwitzerland’s trade surplus and sentiment improved. CHF zigzagged with risk appetite.🇦🇺 / 🇳🇿 AUD & NZD – China Exposure HurtSoft retail data and renewed U.S.-China tension punished both. Kiwi's RBNZ cut failed to hold support amid collapsing sentiment indicators.🇯🇵 JPY – Inflation Surprise, But Still WeakTokyo CPI jumped (3.6%), and BOJ hinted at higher rates. But weak demand for bonds and poor industrial output made JPY the week’s worst.🪙 Pro XAU/USD (Gold) Perspective: Volatile, Vulnerable, but Not Broken📉 Price Action Recap:Monday: Dropped 1% to $3,330 on Trump’s tariff delay (risk-on).Tuesday: Down another 1.9% as legal challenges to tariffs boosted the USD and yields.Midweek: Gold touched $3,269 after the federal court ruled tariffs illegal.Friday: Whipsawed as China tensions returned and traders reassessed Fed path.🔍 Key Drivers:Real Yields: U.S. 10-year yields surged midweek, undercutting gold's appeal.Inflation: Core PCE rose just 0.1%, confirming disinflation but lowering urgency for Fed easing.Geopolitics: Reignited China rhetoric + Middle East calm (Hamas ceasefire) kept safe-haven demand muted… until late Friday.⚖️ Strategic Take:“XAU/USD showed vulnerability to legal and yield-driven flows but remained above key psychological support at $3,250. The $3,280–$3,330 zone is now critical. Gold's failure to break lower despite risk-on spikes suggests traders are still holding insurance—quietly.”🧭 Pro Outlook:Neutral-to-Bullish bias near-term if:Legal uncertainty around tariffs persists.China relations worsen or OPEC tensions spike.Bearish risks:Fed sticks to “no-cut” language.Core PCE continues cooling.U.S. yields break higher again.📊 Winners & Losers (FX)🏆 Top Performers:🇨🇦 CAD | 🇬🇧 GBP (early) | 🇺🇸 USD (choppy but net up)🥈 Defensive Plays:🇪🇺 EUR | 🇨🇭 CHF🔻 Underperformers:🇦🇺 AUD | 🇳🇿 NZD | 🇯🇵 JPY🧠 Final Thoughts: Legal Drama, No Central Bank Clarity, and Gold in LimboThe market got everything this week—policy delay, legal reversals, yield spikes, and tariff threats 2.0. Gold, often a safe-haven leader in chaos, instead danced to the tune of U.S. real yields and legal uncertainty. Traders are clearly watching Trump’s next move, the July 9 deadline, and June’s inflation prints.With central banks sidelined and geopolitics in play, XAU/USD is a coiled spring. Don’t mistake short-term volatility for trend direction. As real yields peak and legal fog thickens, gold's next move could be explosive—either way.🗓️ Next Week’s Watchlist:OPEC+ decisionU.S. ISM & NFPChina PMIEurozone inflationGold’s $3,250 support test🪙 XAU/USD Near $3,374: Eyeing a Re-Test of All-Time Highs🧭 Gold Near Major Resistance – Is $3,500 Next?Gold is trading at $3,374, inching closer to its previous all-time high at $3,500. This level is psychologically and technically important, especially with macro crosswinds swirling.🔥 What's Fueling Gold’s Strength?CatalystImpact💵 USD WeaknessAs the dollar falters on trade & legal chaos, gold attracts inflows.⚖️ Policy DivergenceFed cautious, ECB easing, BOJ tightening – this confusion lifts gold.🛡️ Safe-Haven FlowsCHF, JPY, and now gold are leading safety plays amid market stress.🇨🇳 China RisksTalk of retaliation and policy shifts raises geopolitical demand for gold.📊 Key XAU/USD Levels to WatchPrice LevelTypeCommentary$3,500🔼 Major ResistanceAll-time high and psychological barrier. Break = bullish continuation.$3,320–$3,340⚖️ Short-Term SupportBuyers defending dips; consolidation area.$3,250🔽 Deeper Pullback ZoneBreak below here could invite momentum shorts.💡 Gold in the FX Context1. 🛡️ Gold vs. USD as a Safe HavenGold is outshining the dollar during stress events, especially with legal volatility undermining confidence in U.S. institutions.2. 📉 Gold’s Reaction to Central Bank DivergenceFed’s “hold” policy contrasts with the ECB cut and BOJ hike prospects. This uncertainty = long gold.3. 🔥 Trade Tensions Boost Strategic Gold BuyingTrump’s tariff drama and stalled China talks make gold a neutral hedge that avoids FX-specific risks.📅 Gold-Relevant Events This WeekDateEventGold ImplicationsMon, Jun 2🇺🇸 Powell SpeaksDovish = gold strength. Hawkish = possible pullback.Thu, Jun 5🇪🇺 ECB Rate CutWeakens EUR but may weaken USD too if dovish global tone persists → gold supportedFri, Jun 6🇺🇸 Non-Farm PayrollsWeak data = gold breaks $3,400; strong = possible rejection near $3,500📈 Gold Scenarios for June 2–6ScenarioProbabilityGold Reaction🧩 Base Case (55%)Mixed U.S. data, ECB cuts, BOJ cautiousGold trades $3,340–$3,400; possible test of $3,450🚨 Risk-Off (30%)Weak NFP, China retaliation, trade ruling escalatesGold surges to re-test $3,500 highs🟢 Risk-On (15%)Trade deal progress, strong NFP, Powell neutralGold pulls back to $3,280–$3,320 zone🎯 Trading Thoughts on XAU/USD📈 Bulls: Look for consolidation breakouts above $3,400 with tight stops for a $3,500 test.🧠 Swing Traders: $3,320 support zone is a critical pivot—bullish above, vulnerable below.🛑 Bears: Short only on strong macro data + Powell hawkish surprise, targeting $3,250 or lower.🟡 Gold Surges as U.S. Data Sparks Fed Rate Cut Bets | Market Recap – June 4, 2025Markets were all over the place on Wednesday, driven by a wave of weak U.S. economic data that reignited hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Let’s break down the action:🔥 Key Market Movers:AssetMoveDriversGold (XAU/USD)▲ $3,370 (+1.9%)Weaker USD, falling yields, stagflation fearsU.S. Dollar▼ Across the boardDisappointing ISM & ADP data; dovish Fed expectations10-yr Treasury▼ 4.46% → 4.365%Biggest drop in 7 weeks as bond demand surgedS&P 500FlatTug-of-war between recession fears and rate cut hopesDow Jones▼ 0.22%Dragged by economic worriesNasdaq▲ 0.32%Techs ride easing-rate optimismOil (WTI)▼ $62.66Saudi supply hints, fuel inventory build-upBitcoin▲ $105KQuiet grind higher amid soft dollar📉 U.S. Data DisappointedReportActualForecastPreviousISM Services PMI49.952.051.6ADP Private Payrolls37K70K62KS&P Global Services PMI53.752.350.8💬 Why It Matters for Gold (XAU/USD):These results show the U.S. economy slowing faster than expected. Traders fear stagflation—slow growth with stubborn inflation. That pushed rate-cut expectations higher and yields lower, weakening the dollar and boosting demand for gold as a safe haven.🧩 Global Highlights🇯🇵 Japan Services PMI slipped to 51.0🇦🇺 Australia Q1 CapEx barely rose (+0.1%), AUD weakened🇩🇪 Germany & 🇪🇺 Euro Area Services PMI contracted🇬🇧 UK Services PMI beat expectations🇸🇦 Saudi hints at +411K bpd oil increase in August🇨🇦 Bank of Canada held rates at 2.75%, CAD strengthened🟡 Takeaway for XAU/USD:Worsening global data + energy market uncertainties + falling real yields = bullish gold.🗓️ What’s Next? | June 5, 2025 Key Risks to WatchTime (GMT)EventMarket Impact Focus06:00🇩🇪 Germany Factory OrdersEUR, risk sentiment12:15🇪🇺 ECB Rate DecisionEUR, global yield curves12:30🇺🇸 U.S. Jobless Claims, Trade BalanceUSD, recession concerns12:45🇪🇺 ECB Press ConferenceEUR/USD, global risk16:00+🇺🇸 Fed Speeches (Kugler, Harker)USD, XAU/USD📌 For Gold Traders (XAU/USD):Watch for dovish ECB language and weak U.S. jobless claims to further support gold. Fed speeches later in the day could add volatility if they confirm easing bias.📈 XAU/USD Technical OutlookGold broke out to $3,370, the highest close in nearly a month. Momentum is strong on the back of:🟢 Lower real yields🟢 Safe-haven inflows🟢 Dovish Fed betsA sustained close above $3,380 could target $3,400–$3,420 next. Watch for resistance there and support around $3,340.🔍 U.S. Jobs Report Watch: What May’s NFP Could Mean for Markets📅 Key EventU.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report (May 2025)🕰️ Release Date & Time:Friday, June 6 at 12:30 PM GMT(Use a time zone converter to check your local time)📈 Market Context & Why It MattersTraders are on edge ahead of Friday’s jobs release, especially after the shockingly weak 37,000 ADP private jobs print. With forecasts at +130,000 for NFP, the report could reshape expectations around:📉 Fed interest rate moves💵 Dollar strength🌍 Global risk sentimentAdd in ongoing trade tensions and stagflation worries, and you have the makings of a high-volatility event.🔢 Market ForecastsMetricForecastPreviousNon-Farm Payrolls (NFP)+130,000+177,000Average Hourly Earnings+0.2% m/m+0.2% m/mUnemployment Rate4.2%4.2%🗓️ As of June 5, 2025, 03:31 AM GMT🧠 What Recent Data Is Telling Us🔼 Signals Pointing to Stronger Jobs (Bullish USD)S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): 52.0 – Employment rose, though slightlyS&P Global Services PMI (May): 53.7 – Services hiring expandedISM Services Employment: 50.7 – Finally in growth territoryDallas Fed Employment Components: ImprovingRichmond Fed Manufacturing Employment: Slightly betterChicago PMI: Noted uptick in employment vs. April🔽 Signals Pointing to Weaker Jobs (Bearish USD)ADP Jobs Report (May): Only +37,000 added – lowest in 2+ yearsISM Manufacturing Employment: 46.8 – Still in contractionConsumer Sentiment: Cites “stagnating incomes”Kansas Fed Manufacturing: Shrinking workforceWeekly Jobless Claims (4-week avg): Elevated near 231K💡 How Markets Reacted to Recent NFPsApril Report (Released May 2):NFP: +177K (beat expectations)USD Reaction: Mixed; early gains fadedRisk Sentiment: Lifted by trade talk hopesUnemployment: Ticked up to 4.2%Wages: Slowed to 0.2%March Report (Released April 4):NFP: +228K (well above forecast)USD Reaction: Rallied sharply, especially vs. AUD & NZDUnemployment: Edged up to 4.2%Risk Sentiment: Volatile due to tariff announcements⚖️ Possible Market Scenarios🔹 Base Case (100K–140K Jobs Added)USD: Initial drop, followed by stabilizationRisk Sentiment: Cautious optimismKey Detail to Watch:Wage growth steady at 0.2%Unemployment holds at 4.2%Likely FX Moves:USD could slip vs. JPY and CHFEUR gains may be limited due to ECB rate cut bets🔻 Weak Case (<80K Jobs)USD: Broad sellingRisk Sentiment: Sharp deteriorationExpect:Fed rate cut chatter to spikeConcerns about a deeper slowdownLikely FX Moves:USD down vs. JPY, GBP, CADRisk-off trades dominate📉 A downside surprise could rattle markets already anxious about Q1 GDP contraction and trade uncertainty.🎯 How to Trade the EventWait for clarity: Avoid trading during the initial volatility spikeWatch for confirmation: Details matter more than the headlineUse key levels & stop losses: Position sizing and risk control are essentialStay tuned to headlines: Any tariff or Fed-related remarks can shift sentiment quickly🧭 Final TipsMarkets are walking a tightrope between rate cut expectations and stagflation fearsA poor report could accelerate policy shifts and rattle all asset classesA solid print may support the dollar – but only if wage and unemployment data hold steadyDon’t ignore the geo-political backdrop – especially U.S.-China trade developments or political pressures on the Fed💡 Preparation beats prediction. Have your game plan ready, manage risk, and let the market come to you.$3,390 – $3,440 Key resistance test Done