Technical analysis by TradeWithTheTrend3344 about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (4/11/2025)

Hello,XAUUSD has once again surged to a record high of 3245.515 this Friday, driven by a weakening dollar and renewed U.S.-China tensions. As uncertainty grows, gold continues to shine as a safe haven asset—bolstered by fears of a potential recession and lingering inflation concerns.The rally is further supported by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting interest rates. While some analysts anticipate a short-term pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, fueled by rate cut hopes, global instability, and ongoing strong demand.Currently, gold is hovering around a key resistance level at 3272.103. This area could mark the final push—designed to trap overly optimistic buyers—before a potential bearish reversal. If this resistance holds, it could trigger a significant downside move, possibly targeting the 1-year pivot point (PP) at 2466.313. Although current conditions may not seem to support such a drop, these are exactly the kind of unexpected moves market manipulators might orchestrate.Remember what happened when Trump posted bullish comments followed by a 90-day tariff break? Stocks temporarily soared. The takeaway? Anything is possible. One could argue there's an effort to stabilize the USD, masked by public optimism that doesn’t always reflect economic reality.This all points to a potential bigger play unfolding—a move that temporarily strengthens the dollar, possibly as part of a broader long-term strategy. We’re likely to see sharp bursts of USD strength followed by weakness, creating a rollercoaster pattern as the U.S. works to rebuild and gradually reinforce its currency.Trump’s current leverage comes from the power of the U.S. consumer—arguably among the most valuable in the world. Over time, more countries may be compelled to strike favorable deals with the U.S. to avoid economic fallout from imposed tariffs. It’s like a trial period for a premium service: first, you get a taste of the benefits without tariffs, and once you're accustomed to it, the terms change—creating a stark contrast that acts as a negotiation tool.This “shock factor” strategy—swinging from favorable to harsh conditions—puts other nations in a position of urgency and increases the likelihood of deal-making. While technicals and fundamentals still play a role in the market, tariffs are currently the main catalyst behind the scenes.In summary:📊 XAUUSD Market Overview – April 2025🟡 Current StatusLatest High: 3245.515 🔺 (Record-breaking)Key Resistance: 3272.103Trend: Bullish momentum fueled by:Weaker USD 💵Fed rate cut expectations 📉Recession & inflation fears 😟Geopolitical tension (U.S.–China) 🌏⚠️🔮 Potential ScenariosConditionMarket Reaction🔼 Break above 3272.103More upside likely – bull trend continuation 🐂📈🔽 Rejection at 3272.103Bearish reversal – trap for late buyers 🐻📉🎯 Bearish Target:1Y Pivot Point @ 2466.313📌 Underlying NarrativeUSD Stabilization Strategy: Behind-the-scenes moves to strengthen dollar temporarily.Tariff Manipulation: Market shocks used as leverage in international trade talks.Trump Factor: Tariffs → Shock value → Deals → Strengthen USD via negotiation.Psychology: "Free trial" tactic – benefits removed to push for favorable deals.📈 Key TakeawayIf 3272.103 holds as resistance → Bearish move aheadIf broken → Expect continued bullish momentumGood luck out there!The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1D-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a BoostTradeWithTheTrend3344📈 Cheat Sheet: Greenback Gearing UpIt was a turbulent week—but underneath the chaos, the U.S. dollar may be setting the stage for a powerful comeback. As tariffs flew and markets scrambled, a key narrative began to emerge: the dollar isn’t down for the count—it’s winding up.🌐 Global Headlines Set the StageFrom Washington to Beijing, the tariff drama ignited a storm across assets. But while other currencies wobbled under political pressure, the U.S. dollar showed signs of resilience, with potential upside catalysts stacking up beneath the surface.U.S. Tariff Strategy Hardened: No more delays, no more rumors. The U.S. made clear that tariffs—especially on China—are here to stay, reinforcing its negotiating position. That kind of certainty often acts as a magnet for capital, especially when global policy is in flux.Inflation Data Shocks the Market: While some saw weaker CPI/PPI as bearish, the Fed’s refusal to flinch on inflation suggests the next rate cut isn’t a done deal. The dollar thrives in a hawkish pause.Bond Market Mayhem: Yields spiked and Treasuries sold off, but here’s the real takeaway: investors are demanding more return to hold U.S. debt, and that rising yield premium? That’s a green light for dollar bulls.📊 Chart Watch: A Dollar Rebound in Motion?🟩 Dollar Index Futures:After shedding -3% in one of its worst weeks in years, the Dollar Index is now approaching oversold levels, flirting with key support from late 2022. This is often where big reversals ignite. Traders are eyeing this setup like hawks.🔵 10-Yr Treasury Yield vs. Dollar Index:Yields are soaring—up over 50bps this week! As the blue line surges, it's a matter of time before the greenback catches up. Dollar and yield divergences don’t last long.💡 Risk-On = Risky… For Other CurrenciesOther asset classes partied—gold broke above $3,240, stocks roared, and crypto caught fire—but it’s worth asking: what happens when the music stops?China’s all-in retaliation pushes economic uncertainty sky-high. Who benefits when safe-haven flows return? The dollar.The ECB and RBA are primed to cut rates. Relative rate spreads? Tilting in the dollar’s favor.BOJ may pause hikes, and China is propping up the yuan manually. That artificial pressure? Unsustainable.🔮 Setup for the Week Ahead: Dollar’s Coiled SpringWe’re heading into next week with:Spiking Treasury yieldsGlobal growth fears mountingRate divergence brewingA wildly crowded short-dollar tradeIf even one of these narratives breaks in the dollar’s favor, we could see a snapback rally that leaves gold, crypto, and equities gasping.🟢 The next dollar move could be violent—and higher.PP Update: 1W PP 3146.658, 1D PP 3216.798upper target of 3300 reached