Pepperstone

A mere 24 hours after Apple become the third company in history to reach a $4 trillion valuation, NVIDIA set a new benchmark by becoming the first company ever to register a market capitalisation of $5 trillion. Despite concerns about over extended valuations, the news flow for NVIDIA was initially positive to start this new week as the company attempts to solidify its future at the centre of the potential AI revolution. CEO Jensen Huang revealed the company had received $500 billion of AI chip orders, including contracts to build supercomputers for the US government and then President Trump commented on Wednesday that NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell chips could be a discussion point when he meets with President Xi at Thursday’s summit in South Korea. Putting this into numbers, after opening on Monday at 189.25, the stock soared 12% across the first 3 trading days to a high of 212.19 on Wednesday. That move brought its year-to-date rally to 54%, very impressive indeed! Although, it must be said that prices did slip back to close the day at 207.04. However, overnight the positive sentiment may have stalled slightly, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 25bps as expected but Chairman Powell provided a more cautious outlook on future cuts than had been anticipated. Also, earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta released late on Wednesday were mixed, with strong profits offset by rising costs. Looking forward, the initial updates from the President Trump and President Xi meeting has started to arrive on newswires and traders will be keen to assess the actual details of what was discussed about NVIDIA chip sales between the two countries. A crucial aspect could be whether sales of NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell chip was discussed and if not, what were the reasons why. Then it’s eyes down for the release of Amazon and Apple earnings after the close tonight which could either confirm the recent bullish moves or throw a sentiment curve ball which could negatively impact in positioning into the weekend. Technical Update: Acceleration Higher Shifts Focus to Extension Resistance In just six trading sessions, NVIDIA's share price has rallied over 20%, reaching fresh all-time highs. Such a rapid acceleration can often signal strong momentum but also raises the risk of short-term upside exhaustion, although it's difficult to pinpoint where such moves might slow or even see risks of possible reversal. In this environment, traders might monitor support and resistance levels, with resistance zones signalling potential for profit-taking, while breaks below support could lead to further price weakness. [b Potential Resistance Levels: As price action pushes into uncharted territory with new all-time highs, identifying resistance becomes a challenge. However, traders often turn to Fibonacci extension levels, derived from the most recent correction, to highlight potential areas where upside momentum may slow or even reverse. As the chart above shows, for NVIDIA, this last correction developed between October 10th and October 22nd and the latest strength appears to be stalling in the short term ahead of 213.23, a level equal to the 100% Fibonacci extension. There is no guarantee such extension levels will be successful in capping price strength and closing breaks above the 213.23 resistance may shift focus to 220.14, which is the higher 138.2% extension level. Potential Support Levels: To maintain NVIDIA’s current price strength, traders may now be focused on Wednesday’s low at 204.78 as near-term support; if price weakness tests this level, its defense will be watched, as a closing break below 204.78 could trigger further downside pressure. A close below 204.78 could lead to tests of 198.59, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October 22nd to 29th rally, but if that support gives way, risks may extend toward 194.39, the deeper 50% retracement level. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

Gold volatility hit new heights last week when a push from opening levels at 4243 on Monday (Oct 20th) up to a new record high of 4381 was immediately followed on Tuesday (Oct 21st) by a crash back to lows at 4004 as traders were forced to liquidate weak long positions after key short term technical support levels gave way. If price moves last week were dominated by positioning, moves in the week ahead could be more events driven providing traders with a lot for to focus on and potentially further excessive volatility to navigate. Weekend news has so far provided positive soundbites on progress towards de-escalating trade tensions between the US and China. President Trump has stated he is confident of a deal after US and Chinese trade representatives concluded a 2-day meeting in Malaysia (Reuters), while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant commented that he believes the two negotiating teams have agreed on a successful framework for President Trump and President Xi to discuss when they meet on Thursday (Oct 30th), their first face to face meeting in 6 years. This has already led to a sell-off in Gold prices from Friday’s closing level at 4112 to a low of 4053 this morning. Geo-politics remains in focus as Ukrainian and Russian forces trade drone strikes in Ukraine, while a Kremlin spokesperson said it was too early to talk about the cancellation of a meeting between President’s Putin and Trump, despite the White House’s blacklisting of Russia’s main 2 oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil last Wednesday complicating the issue. Also on Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve announce their next interest rate decision at 1800 GMT, with the press conference led by Chairman Jerome Powell commencing at 1830 GMT. While a 25bps (0.25%) rate cut is expected from Fed policymakers, the press conference could be the main volatility driver for Gold prices, as Chairman Powell provides traders with an update on whether a further rate cut is likely in December as anticipated, or if an on-going US government shutdown, which has stopped key US economic growth and labour market data releases, has clouded the issue. Technical trends may also have a significant impact on where Gold moves next. Technical Update: Is the Bollinger Mid-Average Key? Gold’s sharp 8.60% sell-off from the October 20th all-time high at 4381 prompted speculation over a possible sentiment shift that could mean an end to the recent strong advance. However, the rising Bollinger mid-average has so far contained the decline as can be seen on the chart below. This rising Bollinger mid-average, currently at 4069, held the latest Gold decline, suggesting it might be a key support focus again this week. How the Gold price behaves around this level on a closing basis may offer clues to the next directional bias, either marking stabilisation or opening the risk of a deeper phase of weakness. If the Bollinger Mid-Average Holds Price Weakness: If the support at 4069 continues to hold on a closing basis, Gold may see renewed attempts at strength. Traders could then be focused on how potential resistance at 4150, which is the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the latest decline, is defended. While the mid-average support remains intact, a closing break above 4150, could lead to further upside possibilities, shifting focus to 4239, the 61.8% retracement of the recent decline, or even extending toward 4381 the October 20th all-time high again. If the Bollinger Mid-Average Support is Broken: While 4069 has so far contained Gold’s recent selling pressure, it may not hold indefinitely. A closing break below this level might raise the risk of a more extended phase of weakness, opening deeper corrective themes. Closes below 4069 in Gold could shift trader focus to 3957, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July 30th to October 20th rally. If this support gives way, downside risks may in turn extend toward 3825, a level which marks the deeper 50% retracement level. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

In our update on Monday, we discussed the possible involvement of speculators in recent Gold moves and the potential for higher volatility that this could generate because they tend to liquidate positions quickly when a particular move turns stale. It seems this may have had an impact on Gold prices this week, with a push to record highs of 4381 on Monday followed by a sharp reversal and drop down to lows at 4004 on Wednesday morning, a straight line move that may have more similarities with Bitcoin price action than the potential number 1 safe haven asset of choice for investors. Now, with traders still reeling from the speed of changes in Gold prices, the emphasis may shift to short term drivers with the US and EU announcing further sanctions on Russian energy in an attempt to end the war in Ukraine, while uncertainty is growing around trade discussions between the US and China after the White House yesterday announced it is considering applying new broad software export restrictions against China, bringing into doubt the ability of the 2 sides to reach an agreement in time for President Trump and Chinese President Xi to potentially still meet at some stage next week. Also, with the on-going US government shutdown starving traders of some key economic data readings ahead of a crucial Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision next week (Wednesday October 29th), the delayed US CPI reading on Friday, due at 1330 BST may take on increased significance. Any CPI reading above market expectations could lead to a stronger dollar with potential negative implications for Gold, while an in-line or below print could help to stabilise prices around current levels. Looking forward, with so much uncertainty surrounding the current direction of Gold, it can be helpful to adapt your approach from a technical aspect to initiating trades. This may mean assessing the wider perspective through a daily chart, before moving to a more near-term approach, using a 4 hourly chart to monitor prices ahead of the key risk events into the weekend. This may help you to adjust your time horizons to potentially take advantage of any short term over extension of moves that could be followed by a quick snap back/reversal as investors consider the wider macro backdrop. Technical Update: Gold - The Daily Perspective During periods of high volatility, prices often become stretched away from the 20-period Bollinger mid-average, driven by momentum or sentiment extremes. However, when sentiment shifts direction, price tends to snap back sharply to the average, highlighting the market’s tendency to revert after an overextension. As shown on the daily chart above, Gold’s latest price weakness could possibly be seen as a similar snap-back move. However, the rising daily Bollinger mid-average, currently at 4037, has so far held the decline on a closing basis, suggesting reversion might be at play following recent volatility. Traders could now be focusing on this 4037 Bollinger mid-average as a daily support focus, with closing defence of this level watched over the coming key risk events. However, by also monitoring the 4-hourly chart, it may offer earlier clues to shorter term directional risks, helping traders to anticipate whether longer term momentum is building again or may stall. Potential Shorter Term Support Levels: With the 4037 daily Bollinger mid-average already acting as support, the 4-hourly chart perhaps adds another layer of interest. It suggests 4004 as also a potential support level. This is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September 18th to October 20th rally, and current price action suggests attempts at recovery may well be developing from here. While not a guarantee of further weakness, 4-hourly closing breaks below the 4004/4037 range, a combination of both the daily and 4 hourly supports, could signal further price weakness. Such breaks may open the way for tests of 3944, the October 9th low, and potentially 3915, the deeper 62% Fibonacci retracement. Potential Shorter Term Resistance Levels: Following the recent recovery from the 4004/4037 support zone, the 4-hourly chart suggests 4141 could now be the first resistance focus. This level marks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October 20th to 21st decline and has already capped earlier attempts at price strength on Wednesday, perhaps further increasing traders attention on this level. A confirmed 4-hour closing break above 4141 in Gold could lead to further attempts to move higher with 4184, the 50% retracement of the recent decline potentially then the next resistance. If this level gives way, the rally could have potential to extend towards 4227, which is the higher 62% retracement. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

Gold volatility picked up dramatically last week as concerns regarding the ability of regional US banks to absorb losses from bad loans jostled for position as the new reason for owning Gold as a safe haven hedge with escalating trade tensions between the US and China. These drivers joined a growing list of problems supporting why traders and investors could be so focused on adding Gold, and other precious metals, to their portfolios including geo-political risks in Ukraine and the Middle East, unsustainable government debt levels in countries like the US, Japan, France and the UK, as well as the potential for more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. To showcase how volatility has increased, last week Gold traded from its Monday open at 4012 to a new record high on Friday of 4379, before reversing direction to close the week at 4247. Despite a 1.8% fall on Friday, it still posted a weekly gain of 5.8% and on the way registered its biggest ever weekly price gain in dollar terms (+$235). This type of movement could reflect the increased involvement of speculators in Gold, which can exaggerate price moves as they are quicker to enter and exit positions. When considering trading Gold in this type of environment it could be worthwhile looking to reduce position sizes to account for bigger price swings and accommodate the need for wider stop loss and take profit parameters. Keeping apprised of scheduled event risk can also be useful, for example, the release on Friday (1330 BST) of the delayed US CPI reading, which could influence whether Federal Reserve policymakers feel they are able to cut interest rates by 25bps (0.25%) at their meeting on October 29th. Identifying and monitoring key technical levels and trends can also be important. Technical Update: Price Correction, or Price Reversal? From the August 20th low into Friday’s new all-time high, Gold has risen an impressive 32.25%, reflecting a sustained uptrend. As illustrated in the chart below, corrections during this phase of strength have been brief, typically lasting just one session, with only a single instance of a two-day pullback (marked by the red candles). Each dip has consistently attracted fresh support, helping prices post successive highs and reinforcing the strength of the underlying upside momentum. This recent activity underscores the positive sentiment behind Gold, despite traditional indicators having signalled stretched upside conditions for some time. Notably, Bollinger bands continue to reflect a positive technical backdrop, with the mid-average rising, price action touching the upper band, and the bands widening, a sign of increasing price volatility and upward momentum. Friday’s pullback following the new all-time high at 4379 may be sparking fresh debate among traders, whether this is just another brief correction, as seen during the current uptrend, or the start of a more extended phase of weakness. Historically, similar dips have quickly attracted support, but upcoming sessions may prove pivotal in determining whether upside momentum can resume or if a period of deeper consolidation is on the horizon. In this type of environment it may be prudent to establish potentially relevant support and resistance levels to monitor that could have an impact on the direction of Gold prices. Potential Support Levels: Price corrections following strong advances are a typical market response to short-term upside overextension, and Gold may well be entering such a phase. Traders could now focus on 4165 as the first key support, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October strength. This level holding if price weakness is seen, could stabilise sentiment, while a closing break lower may lead to a deeper pullback. A closing break below 4165 wouldn’t necessarily signal a shift in downside sentiment, but it could open tests of 4099, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, even towards 4033, a level equal to the deeper 61.8% level. Potential Resistance Levels: Having stalled on Friday at the 4379 level it is possible this now marks initial resistance for the coming week. If the uptrend pattern from the August 20th low is to persist, a close above 4379 may lead to a more extended phase of price strength. While not a guarantee of higher price levels, successful closes above 4379 may open scope toward 4416, the 238.2% Fibonacci extension, and if this gives way on towards 4506, which is equal to the 261.8% extension. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

With all the talk in the financial press last week of a potential AI bubble, soaring volatility in the precious metals market, and an on-going US government shutdown, perhaps it was understandable that traders were a little on edge going into Friday. So, when President Trump’s new threats of 100% tariffs on China were posted on social media late in the afternoon the reaction was a big downside correction, which saw the US 500 drop around 3.6% from its all-time highs of 6769 seen just a day earlier to a low of 6508. Since then, comments from President Trump and Vice President Vance over the weekend regarding China have seemed to be more conciliatory in tone, signalling an openness to get back to the negotiating table and hammer out a deal in some form. This has seen all markets breath a small sigh of relief and led the US 500 to open higher, currently trading up 2.2% around 6650 (0800 BST). However, whether this positivity continues may depend on multiple factors, including the technical outlook (more on this below). While trader sensitivity to the next round of comments from the US and Chinese administrations regarding the on-going trade tensions could remain high, they may also be keen to receive the latest Q3 earnings from the major US banks, with JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reporting on Tuesday (before the open), then Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reporting on Wednesday (before the open). While the focus may be on assessing actual performance against expectations, it could also be important to hear the outlook for future revenue, the direction of US economic growth and the size of bad debt provisions. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also speaks on Tuesday at 1720 BST and with the US government shutdown delaying the release of the most recent inflation updates (CPI/PPI) which were due this week until later in October, any comments he makes regarding the inflation outlook or the potential for an October Fed rate cut could take on extra significance. Technical Update: Limited Correction or Sentiment Reversal? Headline-driven price sell-offs like the one experienced on Friday (Oct 10th) are unpredictable, underscoring the importance of disciplined risk management. If you're long of an asset during such volatility, having well-placed stop-losses is crucial to limit downside exposure, especially when liquidity starts to reduce, as it likely did ahead of today’s US holiday. These events serve as a reminder that protecting your trading capital is just as important as delivering profitable outcomes. After such a sharp sell-off, the question is whether it marks a brief, exaggerated correction within a broader uptrend or signals a deeper negative sentiment shift that could lead to further price weakness. The answer may well depend on how the price of the US 500 reacts in the upcoming sessions. Whether support levels hold, momentum stabilises, and buyers return or whether the price decline deepens and the next support levels give way. The jury may still be out on this, but as the chart above shows, judging the potential key support and resistance levels could help gauge the next directional risks. A closing break of either side may offer signals to the next phase of price activity. If the Sell-Off Reflects a Negative Sentiment Shift: Friday’s sharp decline may have already breached some initial support levels, raising the risk of a more extended phase of price weakness. The daily Bollinger mid-average (currently 6668) is typically viewed by traders as a support level in an uptrend and this level was broken on a closing basis within Friday’s decline. Despite this morning’s rally, 6668 could now act as a resistance, and if it remains intact, could keep upside activity in check for now. While 6668 resistance holds on a closing basis, this morning’s recovery may be viewed by some as a reactionary bounce following Friday’s sharp decline, leaving possibilities of renewed selling pressure later in the week. If this proves to be the case, closing breaks below potential support at 6550, a level which is equal to half the rebound from Friday’s low, might lead to renewed downside pressure. This may open tests of 6490, the 50% retracement of the August 1st to October 9th rally, with a closing break below this level, suggesting scope for moves toward 6224 which is the 61.8% retracement. If the Sell-Off Proves to be a Limited Correction: While Friday’s decline was sharper and larger than any since the June 2025 lows, traders may now be watching whether current price strength can close back above the 6668 Bollinger mid-average. While not a guarantee of renewed price strength, past declines since June 23rd 2025, have seen US 500 prices recover to close back above this line, leading to resumed attempts at upside strength. A closing break back above 6668 may once again open attempts to push to higher levels. If confirmed, a break above resistance at 6668 may lead to further upside back toward 6769, which is the October 9th all-time high. Should this level give way, further strength may extend toward 6866, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci extension of last week’s sharp decline. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

BTCUSD broke above 120000 for the first time since mid-August on Sunday, briefly recorded a new all-time high of 126304 yesterday before edging back lower and consolidating its gains so far this morning (124100, 0730 BST). This move to new highs has been relatively constant by recent BTCUSD standards. Prices were languishing at 3-month lows around 10800 on September 26th, but since then it has recorded 10 out of 12 up days, led higher by increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts at their next meetings in October and December, alongside a shift by investors into alternative assets to diversify away from major currencies like the US Dollar (USD), UK Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY) and Euro (EUR) as concerns increase about the sustainability of government debt burdens, fuelled by the spending requirements of those in power. These issues have been highlighted recently by the US government shutdown, choice of pro spending candidate Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s new prime minister, on-going issues surrounding UK Chancellor Reeves Autumn budget plans and the resignation yesterday of new French Prime Minister Lecornu after only 27 days in office as the country struggles to get its finances in order. Looking forward, whether BTCUSD prices can sustain a move to higher record levels or instead see a correction back to the downside may be determined by factors such as risk sentiment remaining positive, alongside the ability of the technical outlook to remain constructive, 2 factors that can change quickly in the current environment. Technical Update: New All Time Highs Between the September 26th low and the October 6th high, Bitcoin rallied 16.27% in a near-uninterrupted stretch of price strength, culminating in a new all-time high of 126304 on Monday. As the chart above shows, despite a correction from the latest 126304 high, fresh attempts to extend the advance could remain on the cards. Momentum still appears tilted toward further attempts to move higher. However, breaks into new all-time high territory don’t guarantee a sustained advance. It’s therefore prudent to monitor key support and resistance levels to help gauge where the next directional risks may emerge. These levels can offer clues on whether momentum is likely to continue or fade. Possible Resistance Levels: Sellers have emerged at the 126304 level, and this area now looks set to act as the initial resistance. Traders will likely monitor how price behaves around 126304, particularly on a closing basis, if retested this week. When price breaks into new all-time high territory, identifying valid resistance becomes challenging. However, Fibonacci extension levels can offer useful reference points. If Bitcoin sees a closing break above 126304, attention may shift toward 131090, the 38.2% extension of the September 26th to October 2nd rally, even potentially 135145, the higher 61.8% level. Possible Support Levels: As already noted, Bitcoin has seen an almost uninterrupted phase of strength since the September 26th low, which may now prompt concerns about price over-extension. Some traders may begin to assess the risk of corrective pullbacks from these elevated levels. However, for corrective themes to gain traction, it may require a closing break below the recent 121525 low (October 4th), which marked the last rally point for price. While breaks below this support are not an outright negative move, such activity could open the way for tests of 119557, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest advance, possibly 117471, the deeper 50% level. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

Gold has experienced a rollercoaster week up to this point as traders dealt with portfolio rebalancing into the end of Q3 on Tuesday and the fallout from a US government shutdown, which went into effect on Wednesday morning as Republican’s and Democrat’s failed to agree a new funding package for the first time in seven years. Add to that, central bank buying of price dips as a diversification away from the dollar, geo-political risks and uncertainty about the next interest rate moves from the Federal Reserve (Fed) into the end of 2025, and traders may be asking the question, is Gold volatility here to stay? In the short term, the answer could be yes. So far this week, Gold prices opened on Monday at 3760 and rallied 3%, breaking above the previous all-time high of 3791, to see a new peak of 3872 on Tuesday morning. They then reversed course, dropping back 2% to 3793, before resuming the uptrend again on Wednesday, as the start of the US government shutdown commenced. Trading 2.7% higher to a new record high of 3895. Wow! Gold is one of the most popular safe haven assets for traders and right now there is a lot of uncertainty fuelling its demand, especially through ETFs as investors rush to find a hedge for any problems that may materialise if US lawmakers can’t reach an agreement before the weekend. One major issue created by the shutdown is the delay of Friday’s US Payrolls number. Traders were relying on this update to help them clarify the potential for a further interest rate cut from the Fed at their next meeting on October 29th. Fed policymakers, speaking this week, have provided mixed outlooks on interest rates, which has further muddied the water in this area, underpinning the move higher. However, Gold long positioning does at times get extended as Tuesday’s drop highlights. With the Gold price currently trading near it’s all time highs (3868 0700 BST), it could be susceptible to downside pressure from a liquidation of weak long positioning caused, for example, by any headlines confirming a breakthrough in talks between Democrats and Republicans. As suggested above, short term Gold volatility could continue into the weekend, and in this regard assessing the technical outlook to identify key support and resistance areas that may be relevant could be useful. Technical Update: Challenging Extension Resistance Since the August 20th low into yesterday new all-time high, Gold has advanced 17.6%, in what has been an almost uninterrupted phase of price strength. This has been reflected by the consistent posting of higher highs and higher lows in price, maintaining positive investor sentiment. This move has defied some traders’ expectations that overbought or overextended conditions might stall the advance or even trigger weakness. As the chart above shows, that hasn’t materialised. However, prices did test a potential resistance focus at 3874 yesterday, a level equal to the 100% Fibonacci extension, which has so far successfully capped the advance on a closing basis. The question now is whether this marks the extent of the current price strength in Gold, or if it’s a pause before further upside attempts emerge. While it's impossible to answer definitively at this stage, it’s increasingly important to identify and monitor key support and resistance levels in Gold. Should volatility pick up, these technical markers could prove important in assessing directional risk. Potential Support Levels: Price corrections following strong advances are a typical market response to short-term upside overextension, and Gold may well be entering such a phase. Traders could now focus on 3793 as the first key support, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest rally. This level holding if price weakness is seen, could stabilise sentiment, while a closing break lower may lead to a deeper pullback. A closing break below 3793 wouldn’t necessarily signal a shift in downside sentiment, but it could open tests of 3730, the deeper 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a level that may offer stronger support if the sell-off extends. Potential Resistance Levels: Gold has stalled so far at 3874, the 100% extension level, which now marks initial resistance. If the uptrend from the August 20th low is to persist, a close above 3874 may lead to a more extended phase of price strength. While not a guarantee of further price upside, successful closes above 3874 might trigger renewed attempts at strength in Gold, possibly opening scope toward 4017, the 138.2% Fibonacci extension, a level that may then act as the next main resistance area. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

The US 100 registered its first down week of September when it closed at 24507 last Friday, a weekly loss of 0.4%. Hardly a collapse but a warning that no market moves in a straight line, especially one so sensitive to many of the key drivers that traders are focused on, namely AI and Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate moves. It seems that last week’s dip may have been driven by some profit taking into the end of what has been a strong third quarter performance for this technology heavy index (8%, July 1st to September 26th). That drop has already been unwound by yesterday’s 0.4% rally which has continued this morning to current levels around 24640 (0730 BST), as traders’ position for some key economic data on the US labour market, which could clear up whether the Fed has room to cut interest rates again when they meet next on October 29th. While there is a US labour market data release scheduled for every day across the remainder of this week, the focus could be Friday’s Payrolls update, where traders are anticipating a modest gain of around 39k and the unemployment rate to remain at its current level of 4.3%. Any deviation from these expectations could impact the market’s pricing of around a 90% chance of an October Fed rate cut, and a 60% chance of another December rate cut, with knock on implications for the direction of the US 100 at the start of Q4. One obstacle impacting Friday’s Payrolls could be the possibility for a US Federal government shutdown from October 1st, which could delay the release of the labour market data, creating an extra level of uncertainty into the end of the week. Congressional leaders met with President Trump at the White House yesterday and talks to avoid a shutdown are on-going, although the latest updates provided by Vice President Vance suggests that a funding agreement is still some way off. It may be worthwhile monitoring progress on this throughout the day ahead, just in case an agreement isn’t reached, and it leads to some extra US 100 volatility. Technical Update: Price Decline Finding Support Price corrections are a natural part of a broader uptrend and often reflect a healthy reaction to recent upside extremes. Following last week’s sell-off in the US 100 index, traders may now be assessing whether the latest weakness is simply a limited pullback ahead of renewed attempts to extend what still appears to be a constructive trend, or the beginning of a more extended price decline. While it’s impossible to confirm whether a renewed phase of strength is underway, last week’s initial weakness found support at lower levels. As the chart above shows, fresh upside attempts may now be emerging, suggesting the possibility of a resumption of the uptrend pattern. While positive sentiment may still be evident, this week’s upcoming data releases could prove pivotal, with the potential to shift momentum and drive notable price moves across key assets and traders will be watching closely for confirmation, or disruption, of the current US 100 index trend. As a result, it may be important to identify and then monitor key support and resistance levels in case an increased spell of volatility emerges. Potential Support Levels: As the chart below shows, the latest price strength seen on Monday and into this morning, appears to be emerging from an initial support zone between 24211 and 24103. This range is marked by both the rising Bollinger mid-average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of September’s advance. A closing break below these levels wouldn’t confirm a downside shift but could pave the way for a test of 23891, the 50% retracement, and possibly even extend towards 23679, which is the 61.8% level. Potential Resistance Levels: After marking a new all-time high at 24795 on September 22nd, traders may now be monitoring this level as the initial resistance focus this week. If the positive trend does remain, fresh attempts at price strength are possible. It could be worthwhile monitoring how the 24795 all-time high is defended on a closing basis, with successful breaks higher potentially leading to a further phase of price strength. While a closing break above 24795 doesn’t guarantee further upside, it could trigger fresh attempts to push first towards 24971, the 100% Fibonacci extension, and potentially up to 25347, the 138.2% extension level. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

NVIDIA’s share price is experiencing an interesting run into the end of September as traders try and work out whether it can extend its run of gains through all time highs sitting just above the 184 level (184.55 Sept 22nd), a line in the sand that has capped the upside since the start of August (more on this in the technical update below). With NVIDIA being the biggest company in the world by market capitalisation, currently sitting at a huge $4.34 trillion (No.2 Microsoft, $3.79 trillion), and it being the bellwether for AI performance, it’s not short of news flow to create periods of volatility. Only on Monday, the company announced a $100 billion link up with Open AI to build new data centres and expand AI infrastructure together, which sent its stock price up 4% towards that 184 resistance, only for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a speech on Tuesday to send it back lower again as investors banked profits, when he offered a more cautious outlook towards future Fed rate cuts into the end of the year. Looking into the end of the week, the focus may be on US economic data again, with the release of the final US Q2 GDP reading at 1330 BST today, and perhaps more importantly, the PCE index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due tomorrow at 1330 BST. Traders seem to be very sensitive to these inflation readings, given that they could determine whether the Fed is able to cut interest rates again before the end of 2025. Any deviation from expectations, to the up or downside could have an outsized impact on sentiment towards the NVIDIA stock price into the Friday close. Technical Update: Watching Record Highs Since reaching its 184.48 high on August 12th, NVIDIA has twice attempted to break and close above this resistance, on August 28th and September 22nd. The latest attempt did set a new intraday high of 184.55, but as the chart below shows, resistance held again by the close, triggering another sell-off from that level. This price action confirms the 184.48/184.55 range as a potentially key resistance area. A successful close above it could lead to a further phase of price strength. While not a guarantee of continued upside, a closing break above 184.48/184.55 could open the path to 192.14, a level equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci extension. If this level were to also give way on a closing basis, the next resistance may prove to be 196.91, which is the higher 61.8% extension. Of course, with resistance at 184.48/184.55 still capping price strength, there's also the risk that support levels could give way, possibly suggesting further downside in price activity. Initial support may now be marked by 175.11, the Bollinger mid-average, which is currently containing the latest pullback in price. While a close below here may not confirm extended price weakness, it might open the door to test lower supports at 168.41, which is the September 17th low, possibly even 164.07, a level equal to the September 5th extreme. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

Cryptocurrency markets can be susceptible to large swings in sentiment that can arrive out of nowhere and lead to outsized moves with potentially little rational behind why they have happened. These moves may be due to large one-off flows, reaction to news events, or just the liquidation of excessive positioning when a move may have run its course in the short term. It seems that yesterday’s drop could have been one of those days. BTCUSD opened Monday around 115500, right in the middle of its recent 110-118k trading range of the last 3 weeks. Then, at the start of trading in Europe the price dropped quickly to touch a low of 111533 before rebounding. This type of surprise move can catch traders unaware or worse can evoke an emotional response that can lead to making a rash decision regarding the execution of a new or existing position. To help protect against this type of reaction, from a risk management perspective it can be helpful to assess the charts at the start of each day to get a feel for market sentiment and positioning, as well as to try and identify some relevant support and resistance levels to monitor, alongside the current BTCUSD trend on the particular timeframe that you are trading. In the technical assessment below, we provide examples of this type of approach that you could adapt to fit your own style. While, BTCUSD prices have edged back higher again this morning, this pre-trading routine can become a quick and useful way to assess cryptocurrency markets. Technical Update: Assessing the Technical Backdrop Monday’s sharp decline might well have caught many traders off guard, prompting emotional reactions and potentially rash decisions. As experience shows, emotion-driven trades often lead to poor timing - buying near session highs or selling near market lows. While sharp price moves are unpredictable, preparing ahead of the trading day or week may help manage the emotional challenges that come with trading. Forearmed is Forewarned Before starting your trading day, build a routine that includes reviewing charts across multiple timeframes, such as 15 minute, 1 hour, 4 hour, daily or even weekly, for the assets you plan to trade. This broader perspective might help you spot key trends and make more informed decisions. This doesn’t need to be a deep analysis, just note the trend direction across different timeframes to get a clearer picture before trading. For a quick trend check, you can consider using the Bollinger Band mid-average (typically the 20-period moving average). If it’s rising, the asset is likely to be in an uptrend; if its falling, a downtrend; and if flat, it suggests a sideways range. When analysing multiple timeframes, keep in mind that longer-term trends may carry more weight. For example, a trend on a 1 day chart is perhaps more significant than one on a 5 minute chart. Short-term trends can reverse quickly, while longer-term moves tend to be more stable and influential. Consider using your trend assessment to shape your trading bias for the session. You may find it’s more effective to trade with the dominant trend rather than against it, at least until there's clear evidence of a price reversal. Be Aware of Support and Resistance Levels In addition to identifying the current trend direction, it's important to pinpoint key support and resistance levels for the session. These levels can help guide entry and exit decisions, highlight potential turning points, and provide structure to your trading plan. Keep these levels close to you throughout the day. Perhaps identify one key support and one resistance level, if either is breached, it may signal your initial assessment was incorrect and a trend reversal is underway. Support is often marked by prior lows or areas where buyers previously halted a price decline and helped restore the prevailing uptrend. Consider placing sell stop losses below a support level you have identified. Resistance is typically identified by prior highs or areas where sellers previously capped a rally and reinforced the prevailing downtrend. Think about placing buy stop losses above a resistance level you have outlined. A rising Bollinger mid-average also often serves as support, while a falling mid-average can signal resistance. Fibonacci retracement levels - 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% - can also highlight potential support levels during pullbacks in an uptrend or resistance levels during recoveries in a downtrend. These may also be useful additions to be included in your pre-trading routine. The chart above highlights examples of possible support and resistance levels for Bitcoin within the daily timeframe. Let’s now look at what might be the current daily trends and support/resistance levels for Bitcoin for the daily perspective Potential Daily Trend: Monday’s sharp sell-off did see a break below what at the time was potential support, marked by the Bollinger mid-average, and price action staying below the average may suggest risks of a downtrend. However, as shown in the above chart, the daily Bollinger mid-average is currently flat, indicating Bitcoin may be in a daily sideways range. A downturn might suggest a developing downtrend, while an upward shift in the average could signal a renewed uptrend. Potential Daily Support and Resistance Levels: The Bollinger mid-average currently at 114057 may suggest an initial daily resistance. A break above this level might lead to further strength, with the September 20th high at 116205 and the September 18th peak at 117989 as potential next resistance levels. The recent low at 111533 may now be considered as an initial daily support level. A close below here could shift the focus to the September 4th low at 109325 as the next support to monitor. You can of course refine these levels by analysing shorter timeframes to match your trading style and perhaps spot near-term opportunities. However, by understanding key trends and support/resistance zones across various timeframes before the trading day begins, you may well find you are better equipped to deal with unexpected price swings with more balance and less emotion. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.