Technical analysis by Pepperstone about Symbol PAXG on 11/11/2025

It was interesting to see that weekend progress between Democrat and Republican lawmakers on bringing an end to the longest running federal government shutdown in US history led to a 2.6% surge in Gold, from opening levels around 4000 on Monday up to a 2 week highs of 4116, a move that has extended this morning to print a high at 4149. Traders chose to focus on the potential clarity the move could bring to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current interest rate outlook, rather than cutting back on their Gold exposure being held a safe haven hedge against the economic uncertainty and potential damage the long-lasting shutdown was inflicting on the US economy. It is hoped that a reopening of the US government could restore the economic data flow providing updates on the health of the US labour market and direction of inflation in time to influence the decision making of Fed policymakers ahead of their final rate decision of the year on December 10th. The current market pricing of roughly a 65% chance of a further 25bps rate cut at this meeting has helped support Gold’s move higher, as a non-interest-bearing asset. Progress on ending the shutdown seems to be speeding up with the Senate voting to approve a spending package that keeps most of the government open until the end of January, and some departments open until the end of September. The bill now moves to the House of Representatives for approval before being sent to President Trump for his signature. Two potential stumbling blocks that may add further volatility to Gold prices across the remainder of the week. The technical outlook could also be influential after yesterday’s close above resistance at 4077, the 38.2% retracement of the October price decline. Gold Technical Update: Signs of Upside Resumption? Following the price drop into the 3886 October 28th low, Gold entered a phase of more balanced price action, with sideways consolidation dominating recent sessions. This suggested a pause in directional momentum as traders assessed whether the decline had run its course or if further price weakness might resume. However, following the weekend news of a potential US government re-opening, fresh support emerged on Monday. As a result, Gold has now rallied over 6.7% from the October 28th low (3886), marking a notable recovery from the recent weakness. Traders may now be focused on Monday’s closing break back above resistance at 4077, a level equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October weakness. While not a guarantee of further price strength, this move may lead to a phase of recovery. Therefore, it could be useful to gauge support and resistance levels after the latest price activity for possible clues to the next directional themes. Potential Resistance Levels: While future price action will ultimately dictate where Gold moves next, the recent close above 4077 may suggest further upside in price. This could raise the prospect of a test of 4194, the higher 61.8% retracement level of October’s decline. The 61.8% retracement level at 4194 is potentially a strong barrier to price strength, and if tested Gold may face sterner resistance here. However, a closing break above this level could open scope for deeper upside moves toward 4381, the October 20th extreme. Potential Support Levels: After the speed of yesterday’s up move, the first potential support for traders to monitor could be at 4016, a level marking half of the recent rally from the lows at 3886 (October 27th low). A pullback to this level could be a routine reaction to recent strength, however but closes below this level might signal renewed downside pressure. While not a definitive signal of renewed weakness, a close below 4016 could open the door to retest 3886, the October 28th low and potentially even 3823, a level equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the August to October advance.