Technical analysis by Pepperstone about Symbol PAXG on 11/4/2025

Gold prices may have stabilised after their sharp correction from an all-time high at 4381 on October 20th to a low of 3887 on October 28th, however traders still bear the scars from that excessive and volatile move which has left the popular metal dancing in a 3% range either side of 4000. Judging where Gold prices may move next has become more challenging with Federal Reserve policymakers trying to cool market expectations of a further interest rate cut at their next meeting in December. As a general rule, lower interest rates can help support Gold prices as it is a non-yielding asset. Not only that, but this changing outlook from the Fed has also seen the US dollar move up to its highest level for 3 months, which has further weighed on Gold prices, as it makes the safe haven asset, which is priced in dollars, more expensive to global investors. However, many of the drivers that attracted traders to add Gold to their portfolios remain, such as geo-political risks in Ukraine, credit risk and uncertainty regarding the direction of global economic growth. In this type of environment paying attention to the technical outlook can be just as important as staying appraised of macro headline risk. Technical Update: Does 3915 Mark the Extent of Corrective Moves? Gold has corrected over 11.25% from its October 20th all-time high into last Tuesday’s October 28th session low, unwinding the possible over-extended upside conditions that built during the sharp August 20th to October 20th price advance. The key dilemma for traders now is whether the recent weakness marks a healthy market correction or suggests a deeper shift in sentiment. If it’s the former, we could see renewed buying interest and a resumption of the broader uptrend. However, if it’s the latter, risks may lead to a further phase of price weakness. While the next directional theme for Gold remains uncertain, technical analysis can offer potential clues. By identifying key support and resistance levels, traders can anticipate where directional risks may emerge, especially if those levels break on a closing basis. A breach of support may signal deeper corrective risk, while a close above resistance could resume positive momentum. Potential Resistance Levels: Gold’s 11.25% decline from the October 20th high appears to have found support at 3,915, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September 18th to October 20th advance. Price action has since stabilised around this level, suggesting potential for attempts to renew upside. Traders may now shift focus to key resistance levels, with closing breaks above those levels needed to indicate further price strength. With upside developing following tests of the 3915-retracement support, traders could now be monitoring the 4076 level, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October price weakness. Successful closing breaks above 4076 could result in tests of 4134, the 50% level, even 4192, the higher 61.8% retracement. Potential Support Levels: As suggested above, with the latest phase of price weakness being held by the 3915 retracement levels, traders will likely be monitoring this as the first possible support. Closing breaks under this level could be a catalyst for continued price declines. Such moves while not a guarantee of a phase of further price weakness, could open tests of 3819, the October 2nd session low, even 3717, which is the September 24th downside extreme. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.