Ox_kali

__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is hovering near 120.6k after a clean reclaim above the 119.8k pivot, now pressing into the 121k–122.3k daily supply cluster. Trend is bullish, but we’re trading into resistance. Momentum: 📈 Bullish, multi-timeframe HH/HL, yet approaching a dense 121k–122.3k supply. Key levels: - Resistances (4H/1D) : 121,000–121,500 • 122,318 (D) • 123,235 (240) - Supports (1H/4H/1D) : 119,800 (720 pivot) • 118,500 (240) • 115,860 (240) Volumes: Normal across most TFs; prior spikes accompanied the 119.8k breakout. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H trending up toward 122.3k; 4H/2H high-base consolidation; 30m/15m locally overbought under 121k, favoring pullbacks to 120.0k–119.8k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Neutral Buy backdrop, but tilting Neutral Sell → Sell on the very short-term, slightly contradicting the bullish push into resistance. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: uptrend intact—prefer buy-the-dip over chasing breakouts until we get a daily close above 122,318 with volume. Global bias: Buy bias (Neutral Buy) while 119.8k holds; key invalidation on a close below 119.8k. Opportunities: - Buy the dip at 120.0k–119.8k targeting 121.5k then 122.3k/123.2k. - Bullish breakout on H4/D close > 122,318 toward 123,235 (let it run if flows expand). - Tactical fade 120.9k–121.1k back to 120.0k if Risk On/Off stays in Sell on LTFs. Risk zones / invalidations: Strong rejection at 122.3k plus a close < 119.8k = bull trap risk and range-back toward 118.5k; loss of 118.5k could open 115.9k. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Spot ETF inflows remain positive and above new supply → supports dip-buying. - China liquidity mixed, Euro CPI contained, no major macro shocks → technical breakout must be confirmed by volume. - Rotation to ETH/Alts + slowing derivatives momentum → near-term cap risk on breakouts. Action plan: - Plan A (buy-the-dip): Entry 120.0k–119.8k / Stop < 119.6k / TP1 121.5k, TP2 122,318, TP3 123,235 • R/R ~2–3. - Plan B (breakout): Entry on retest 122.35k–122.5k after H4/D close > 122,318 / Stop ~122.0k / TP1 123,235, TP2 let it run • R/R ~1.5–2. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs remain bullish while LTFs are stretched into resistance. 1D/12H/6H: HH/HL above 119.8k; H4/D close > 122,318 unlocks 123,235; look for volume expansion to validate extension. 4H/2H: High-base consolidation under 121k–122k; better R/R on pullbacks to 120.0k–119.8k than chasing an immediate break. 30m/15m: Local overbought and Risk On/Off in Sell; higher odds of a pullback toward 120.0k/119.8k before any attempt above 122k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is calm-to-supportive; ETF flows backstop BTC, but rotation to alts and slower derivatives momentum argue for caution on breakouts. Macro events: China credit/liquidity mixed; Spain CPI contained (ECB pressure tempered); US deficit keeps the debasement/hedge narrative alive. Bitcoin analysis: Spot ETF inflows (+$65.9M) with IBIT buys > mined supply support demand; BTC dominance slipping (rotation to ETH/Alts) can cap near-term outperformance; futures momentum has cooled. On-chain data: Risk-on but not euphoric; compressed IV and high alts OI increase sensitivity to surprises; STH resistance near ~127k as an upper on-chain area. Expected impact: Constructive for dip-buys; demand confirmation (volume/flows) needed to validate a daily break above 122.3k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ An uptrend is probing a 121k–122.3k daily supply cluster with normal volumes and a mixed short-term Risk On/Off read. - Trend: bullish 📈 while 119.8k holds. - Top setup: buy-the-dip 120.0k–119.8k; only confirm continuation on a close above 122,318. - Macro: ETF inflows positive, macro calm; rotation into alts may cap BTC near-term. Stay patient: favor pullbacks and wait for an H4/D close with volume to “pay” the break above 122.3k. 👀

__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is coiling just below a major pivot (119.8k) while buyers defend 118k, with CPI likely to act as the catalyst. Higher time frames stay constructive, but the HTF supply cap is compressing momentum. Momentum: Sideways with a slight bearish tilt until 119.8k is reclaimed on closes. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF): 119,800 (multi‑TF pivot), 122,300–123,300 (D/240 cluster). - Supports (HTF): 118,000 (active 1H–12H demand), 115,800–116,000 (240 pivot low), 111,980 (W Pivot High). Volumes: Normal on HTF; moderately elevated on 2H in recent sessions. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H up but capped under 119.8k; 4H/2H neutral‑bearish; 1H/30m/15m bearish with pressure testing 118k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRE VENTE → a cautious “risk-on” backdrop, aligning with the difficulty to push through resistance without a catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: HTF trend still constructive but capped; trade conditionally around 119.8k/118k. Global bias: Neutral to slight short bias below 119.8k; bullish above 120k. Key invalidation: 4H/D close above 120k. Opportunities: - Breakout buy: Long on close/retest hold >119.8k/120k → target 122.3k then 123.3k. - Defensive buy: Long on clean reaction at 118.0k (wick + confirmation) → 119.8k. - Tactical sell: Short on clean rejection at 119.0k–119.8k or 118.0k breakdown → 116.0k. Risk zones / invalidations: - 2H/4H break below 118.0k opens 116.0k; below 116.0k, extension risk toward 111,980. - Strong reclaim >120k invalidates range shorts and favors 122.3k–123.3k. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - US CPI today; USD firm into the release → expect volatility and directionality for BTC. - RBA signals “likely” cuts but meeting‑by‑meeting → feeds a global easing narrative if CPI cooperates. - US–China 90‑day tariff truce → tailwind for risk, though tech decoupling risks persist. Action plan: - Breakout long: Entry 120.0k–120.3k / Stop <119.4k / TP1 122.3k, TP2 123.3k, TP3 trail → R/R ~2.5–3.5. - Range long: Entry 118.0k (1H–2H confirmation) / Stop <117.6k / TP1 119.3k, TP2 119.8k → R/R ~2–3. - Breakdown short: Entry on 2H close <118.0k (retest) / Stop >118.6k / TP1 116.0k, TP2 112.0k (111,980) → R/R ~2–5. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher time frames are constructive yet capped, while lower time frames lean defensive into 118k. 1D/12H/6H: Uptrend intact, firm cap at 119,800; above it, 122.3k–123.3k opens if volume confirms. 4H/2H: Neutral‑bearish; 118k–119.8k range compression; a 118k break exposes 116k. 1H/30m/15m: Micro downtrend (LH/LL), intraday selling pressure; watch for defended reactions at 118k. Confluences/divergences: 119,800 is the key multi‑TF pivot; ISPD neutral → wait for close/volume confirmations. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro flow (CPI) dominates near term, with a background of gradual easing and growing institutional BTC exposure. Macro events: - US CPI due today, USD firm; hotter print likely weighs on risk, softer print favors an upside break. - RBA: “likely” cuts with a meeting‑by‑meeting stance → supports global easing narrative. - US–China tariff truce (90 days) → risk tailwind despite tech decoupling risks (Nvidia H20 in China). Bitcoin analysis: - BTC near 119k; 122k–123k resistance; failure above 122k risks a double‑top akin to mid‑July. - Institutional flows: Metaplanet +518 BTC (total ~18,113 BTC); ETFs + treasuries ~2.4M BTC (~12% supply). On-chain data: - Short‑term holders +~220k BTC since Jun 21; Realized P&L near average → rotation without extreme overheating. - ~$135M short liquidations and ~2,655 BTC moved off Binance → ongoing repositioning. Expected impact: - Soft CPI = validates break >119.8k/120k toward 122.3k–123.3k; hot CPI = risk of 118k flush to 116k/112k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Market is balanced under 119.8k with 118k as the immediate line in the sand into CPI. - Overall trend: Neutral with a slight bearish tilt below 119.8k; turn bullish above 120k. - Most relevant setup: Confirmed breakout >119.8k/120k toward 122.3k–123.3k; alternatively, tactical short on 119.0k–119.8k rejection or 118k break. - One key macro factor: US CPI today; likely the catalyst for the range break. Stay patient, trade confirmations, and manage risk tightly around the print. ⚠️ __________________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum : Market is showing bullish momentum 📈, consolidating at the top of its post-ATH range, with higher lows preserved and no excessive jargon. Key Levels : • Resistances (1D/4H/2H): 117,723 (240 pivot), 119,658 (W pivot), 119,863 (720 pivot), 123,182 (D pivot) • Supports (1D/4H/2H): 115,903 (240 pivot), 114,708 (240 pivot), recent daily demand zone >112,000 Volumes : Generally normal volumes; moderate spikes on 1H/15m during resistance tests. Multi-timeframe signals : Clear bullish structure on 1D to 2H; short-term weakness on 30m–15m, local bearish bias. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context : Neutral-buy bias on daily/HTF, but short-term sell signal on 30m–15m → local risk-off bias. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Global bias : Bullish as long as 115,903 (2H/4H support) holds on closing basis; invalidation below this level. Opportunities : • Buy on controlled pullback towards 116k–115,903 with LTF confirmation. • Breakout long on close/retest above 117,723 targeting 119,658/119,863 then 123,182. • Tactical short scalp on clean rejection from 117,723 if Risk On / Risk Off Indicator stays on Sell (LTF). Risk/invalidation zones : Bullish invalidation below 115,903 (2H/4H close) exposes the 110k area. Macro catalysts : • Persistent geopolitical tensions & stablecoin regulatory headlines; volatility possible. • Institutional inflows (ETF, Harvard) strengthen the setup, but no immediate technical macro trigger. • Intermittent risk-off climate from external news. Action plan : • Entry: Long on reversal signal at 116k–115,903, OR confirmed breakout above 117,723. • Stop: Below 115,903 (pullback) OR 117,043 (breakout). • TP1: 117,723 / TP2: 119,658–119,863 / TP3: 123,182 • R/R: Aiming 2:1 or better; move stop to BE after TP1. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D/12H/6H/4H : Bullish price structure, higher lows, key support at 115,903; positive momentum, further move expected on clean breakout above 117,723. 2H/1H : Confirmed bullish flow, steady bid as long as 115,903–116k area holds; increased volume at resistance tests. 30m/15m : Notable short-term weakness, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator is on Sell, possible fake-outs above 117,723; short setups possible. Divergences : Daily bias is bullish, but short-term signals indicate local seller dominance—careful of traps around breakouts. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro events : Geopolitical tensions (Ukraine, Middle East), US/EU economic divergence, stablecoin regulation uncertainty (US/China). Bitcoin analysis : Institutional flows are strong (Harvard position, ETF inflows), 117.8k is the psychological breakout level for a melt-up, no significant profit-taking seen. On-chain data : “Air gap” below ~116k, key operational support at 115,9k; no extreme outflows. Expected impact : Technical bullish bias reinforced if supports hold, but macro risk warrants cautious stop placement. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Market remains broadly bullish with strong supports around 115,903 and high-probability setups on validated pullbacks or a clean breakout above 117,723. The prime setup is to buy controlled drops or confirmed breakouts with tight stops. Institutional activity and macro context broadly favor upside, but geopolitics require cautious management. __________________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: 📊 Consolidation range below 119,800–123,218, primary trend still 📈 bullish; buyers defending 116,100–114,723. Key levels (TF): - Resistances: 117,800–118,600 (6H/4H supply); 119,800 (720 PH); 123,218 (D Pivot High). - Supports: 116,100 (6H/2H); 115,720 (240 PH); 114,723 (D Pivot Low); 112,600 (240 PL); 111,980 / 98,200 (W Pivots). Volumes: Normal across TF → no “Extreme Volumes” (need confirmation on breakouts). Multi-timeframe signals: HTF 1D/12H/6H/4H = Up; 2H = Down; 30m ISPD = Sell (LTF divergence). Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral → no sector-wide directional bias. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Global bias : Slightly 📈 bullish above 115,720/114,723; swing invalidation on a close < 114,723. Opportunities: - Buy pullback 116,100–115,700 toward 117,800/118,600/119,800. - Bullish breakout: acceptance 1D/12H > 119,800 → target 123,218. - Tactical short: clean rejection 117,800–118,600 while 2H = Down and 30m ISPD = Sell. Risk zones / invalidations: - Intraday longs: close < 115,700. - Swing longs: close < 114,723 (risk 112,600 → 111,980). - Shorts: LTF close > 118,600; structural: acceptance > 119,800. Macro catalysts (Twitter/News): - US pro‑crypto tilt (debanking review, retirement/PE/crypto access, Fed nominee) → sentiment tailwind. - Softer USD (BOE hawkish cut, Fed pick) → positive for risk/BTC. - US rates (30Y auction, yields) → a yield spike would weigh on breakouts. Action plan: - Pullback Buy: Entry 115,900; Stop 114,650; TP1 117,800, TP2 118,600, TP3 119,800 → R/R ~2.0–2.8. - Breakout Setup: Enter on RP 119,800–119,400 after 1D/12H close > 119,800 + volume; Stop 118,500; TP1 121,800, TP2 123,200, TP3 (runner) → R/R ≥2.0. - Tactical Short: Entry 118,200; Stop 118,700; TP1 116,600, TP2 116,100, TP3 115,700 → R/R ~1.6–2.5. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D/12H/6H/4H (Up): Bullish structure consolidating below 119,800; support cluster 115,720–114,723 holding; key setups = buy pullbacks + confirmed breakout > 119,800 toward 123,218. 2H (Down): Lower highs below 118,000; 117,800–118,600 supply favors tactical fades; needs flip > 118,600 to push 119,800. 1H/30m/15m (Up, with 30m ISPD = Sell): Sub‑range 116,100–117,900; buy scalps at 116,400/116,100; caution buying into 117,900–118,600 (rejection risk). Key divergences: HTF Up vs 2H Down + 30m ISPD Sell → higher odds of false breaks below 118,600/119,800. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro events: - US pro‑crypto stance (debanking review, retirement/PE/crypto access, Fed nominee) → better access/regulatory tone (Twitter sources). - Gold tariffs/repricing narrative → reinforces “digital gold”. - Softer USD and easing inflation impulses → support risk; watch long-end yields. Bitcoin analysis: - Technical: testing the upper bound of a rising wedge, momentum improving. - Institutional/access: treasury/banking initiatives may support participation. - Energy/valuation: Bitcoin Energy Value ~145,000 vs spot ~116,000 → implied discount. On-chain data: - Post‑ATH indecision; “air gap” 110,000–116,000. - STH in profit ~70% → fresh demand needed. - ETFs: ~−1,500 BTC outflow recently (risk if it persists). - Funding <0.1% → moderate leverage, less immediate squeeze. - On‑chain pivot ≈ 116,900 to reclaim; 119,800 critical for confirmation. Expected impact: - Friendlier macro + balanced on‑chain favor a cautiously bullish technical bias, but confirmation requires acceptance above 119,800 with volume. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ - Overall bias: cautiously 📈 bullish in a range; buy dips at 116,100–115,700; swing invalidation below 114,723. - Top setup: confirmed breakout > 119,800 with volume to target 123,218; otherwise fade 117,800–118,600. - Macro: US pro‑crypto tone and softer USD support BTC, but monitor UST yields.

__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum & context: Bullish bias confirmed on higher timeframes (1D/4H), but bearish divergences appearing from 2H downward. Major support/resistance: 114,600–115,000 and 114,667 hold as the critical zone. Key resistance: 116,900–117,000 must break for a bullish trigger. Volume: Normal on HTF. Very high volumes detected on 30min/15min during the 116,000+ resistance test (climax/reversal risk). Multi-timeframe behavior: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = “Strong Buy” from 1D to 1H, short-term sellers active below 2H (ISPD = Sell on 15min). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias: Bullish structure preserved, but fragility evident on intraday. Opportunities: Tactical buys possible on 114,600–115,000 (stop <114,000) or strong breakout above 116,900. Risk: Clear break below 114,000 = risk of drop to 110,000. Volume climax/ISPD Sell below resistance = profit taking advised. Macro catalysts: Ongoing geopolitical news (US/Russia/China), volatility during US announcements; post-Fed digestion. Action plan: Strict monitoring of ETF flows/funding/US news. Cautious accumulation on daily/4H, short-term shorts only if confirmed by lower timeframe signals. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Strong upward bias, price at major support, calm volume. 12H/6H/4H: Robust sectorial momentum (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Strong Buy”), daily/4H supports holding, initial bearish signs on 2H/1H. 2H/1H: Growing fragility: “Down” trend confirmed on 2H, momentum loss, buyer exhaustion visible. 30min/15min: Very high volumes under resistance, ISPD Sell 15min: short-term correction alert. Overbought microstructure, trigger risk if rejection at 116,000–116,250. Cross-TF summary: Market mostly “Up”, but tactical vigilance around supports, increased caution above 116,000. Summary: - Bullish structure maintained on daily/4H, but top/reversal warning signals on brief lowest TFs (15/30min). - 114,600–115,000 pivot zone is decisive: holding = increased stabilization/accumulation probability; break = risk of extension down to 110,000. - Active monitoring of ETF flows/funding/news is essential. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & Bitcoin Analysis (Twitter Summary) __________________________________________________________________________________ Geopolitical risks remain high, US/China protectionism & Fed on hold: crypto market in wait-and-see mode. BTC broke 116k, entered low-liquidity zone; rebound remains “fragile.” ETF flows: moderate return to buying, funding neutral. Possible post-pullback accumulation signal, but needs confirmation. Strategy: swing buy on defended/major supports, strict management if short-term seller signals (volume/ISPD). __________________________________________________________________________________ Action Steps __________________________________________________________________________________ Buy on 114,600–115,000 zone if confirmed by daily/4H, stop loss <114,000. Re-buy or more aggressive swing on clear breakout above 116,900–117,000. Take profits/short if clear rejection 116,000+ with volume climax/ISPD Sell. Monitor macro (US events), ETF flows, funding rate, volume behavior.Macro detailled news 07/08/25 : - US ramps up China trade war; 15% tariffs extended to Japanese imports and new India tariffs hit risk mood. - Russian stocks rally 4.5% on potential Trump-Putin summit; safe-haven flows in play. - SEC adopts a bullish stance on crypto staking, boosting broad sentiment. - Industrial output plunges in Germany & Sweden; Japanese population/data underline global stagflation risk. - US oil demand rebounds, but global sanctions keep energy markets volatile. - Bitcoin drops below $116K, entering low-liquidity territory after holding $100K+ for 91 days. - Whale Alert: 1,000 BTC (~$115M) leaves Bybit for unknown wallet—large players moving. - US Bitcoin ETF inflows turn positive after a 4-day pause; institutional desks stepping back in. - BTC funding rates cool off as post-ATH uncertainty grows; bull run faces a pause. - Coinbase pushes for AML/zero-knowledge overhaul post-data breach; privacy debate intensifies in stablecoins. Sentiment: Choppy optimism—macro crosswinds, but institutions circling. Insight: Geo and regulatory headlines are stacking up. Cautious consolidation could open up the next trend.

__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points ➤ Dominant bullish momentum on higher timeframes (6H, 12H, 1D) with ongoing consolidation; clear short-term bearish divergence on intraday (2H, 1H, 30min, 15min). Key supports: 114,723 (D Pivot Low), 111,980 (W Pivot High) – essential zones for action/monitoring. Critical resistances: 115,720–119,000, ultimate top at 122,318. Normal volumes, no aggressive accumulation/distribution observed. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: “Strong Buy” in trend, neutral short term. ISPD DIV/investor satisfaction neutral: No excess or behavioral anomalies. Structural resilience but no strong short-term catalyst; awaiting a trigger from volume spike or macro reaction. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary ➤ Global bias: mid/long-term bullish, short-term caution. Opportunities: tactical buys on 114,723–111,980, underweight before US ISM/PMI (expected volatility window). Risk areas: a clear break below 111,980 = increased correction risk down to 107,500–110,000. Catalysts: US ISM/PMI, ETF flows, extreme volume, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator reaction. Action plan: Buy on strong support reaction (confirmation price action, tight stop <111,000) If no volume flow, prefer strategic waiting until macro announcements/exceptional volume Monitor volume anomalies, ETF flows, ISPD DIV extreme zone returns [/list=1] __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis ➤ 1D to 6H: Robust bullish trend, all major technical supports intact, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Strong Buy”. Volumes contained, no behavioral red flags. 2H, 1H, 30min, 15min: Clear bearish divergence via MTFTI (“Down”), no directional buyer flow, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator neutral. Summary: Main scenario = consolidation/intermediate correction under resistance; actionable setups on clear support/equilibrium reactions (confirmation price action). Fundamental side: macro stress tests absorbed, structurally healthy market, no major capitulation. Key catalyst to watch: Post-US PMI/ISM reaction and ETF flows. Any major inflection below 114k–111k = immediate defensive management. __________________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall Momentum: Dominant bullish trend above 4H. Short-term momentum shifts bearish on 2H/1H/30min, warrants caution. Key Supports: 114,000 USDT (short term), 111,900 USDT (major pivot), 98,200 USDT (structural failure if lost). Critical Resistances: 115,900 / 118,900 / 119,900 USDT, daily pivot high 122,318 USDT. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Bullish confirmation on most higher timeframes. ISPD DIV: Behavioural indicators neutral across all frames, no extreme signals (no panic or euphoria). Volume: Normal overall, with isolated yellow bars signaling recent volatility spikes. Multi-timeframe: Higher timeframes (1D, 12H, 6H, 4H) remain bullish. Lower timeframes (2H, 1H, 30min, 15min) show short-term downside momentum without systemic panic. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Main Bias: Bullish structure so long as 111,900 USDT holds. “Buy-the-dip” on pullbacks, tactical range approach below 115,900 USDT. Opportunities: Scalping on key supports (113,000–114,000 USDT), accumulation on deep test of 111,900 USDT, adaptive exits at major resistances. Risks Zones: Clear break of 111,900 USDT opens the way to a deeper corrective move, potentially to 105,000–110,000 USDT. Macro Catalysts: FED on hold, ETF outflows, ongoing geo/trade war risks, US job stats uncertainties; to be monitored. Action Plan: Adjust position size to intraday volatility, strict stop-loss below 111,800 USDT, firm monitoring of ETF flows, on-chain trends, and Risk On / Risk Off Indicator . __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D - Daily: Bullish trend until 111,900 USDT fails on close. Volume and behaviourals neutral. 12H / 6H / 4H: Range trading dominant. Pivots cluster in 114,700–116,000 USDT. 2H / 1H: Short-term bearish bias (MTFTI Down), increased risk of flush below 113,000 USDT; patience required for exhaustion or seller reversal. 30min / 15min: Volatility up, no behavioural extremes detected. Key watch on breaks below 113,000 USDT. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Confirms bullish bias on higher frames (>4H), momentary loss of bullish momentum on short-term (30min–2H). Summary: 111,900 USDT is the prime protection node; above = bullish. Below = risk of corrective extension. No current panic detected. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & Bitcoin – Twitter Synthesis & Fundamental Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro: Mixed global sentiment, ongoing US-China trade tensions, persistent geopolitical volatility, equities and crypto under pressure but no systemic break yet. FED in wait-and-see, next big pivot in September. BTC: Technical & on-chain accumulation at major supports, ETF outflows by retail but institutional accumulation, significant liquidations but no outright panic. On-chain: 97% of BTC supply in profit, risk of distribution on overextended rallies, STH cost basis support intact ($105–117k zone). Strategy: Base scenario = buy deep pullbacks, exit prudently at resistance, monitor ETF flows & macro headlines for tactical adjustment. __________________________________________________________________________________ Practical Conclusion & Recommendations __________________________________________________________________________________ Underlying trend remains bullish, extension likely if 111,900 USDT holds. Monitor: volume/sell capitulation, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator, ETF flows. Maintain strict risk management, adapt tactics to range volatility. Avoid excessive leverage, keep tactical intraday flexibility as microstructure is volatile. __________________________________________________________________________________MACRO + BTC ROUNDUP -US data (factory orders, PMI, jobless claims) stoking Fed rate cut bets, weighing on USD. -Oil dumped after OPEC+ production hike; Brent drops below $70, pressure on inflation outlook. -China tightens mineral exports, amping up global supply chain risks. -Geopolitics heat up: more Ukraine sanctions, Iran currency changes, US-India-Russia oil standoff. -Bitcoin bounces to $115k after -3% dip; $110k support being tested, whales accumulating. -Metaplanet adds 463 BTC, now holds 17,595 BTC ($2B) – sign of strong institutional conviction. -Network sees big transfers, plus $14.5B BTC theft from old mining pool stirs security worries. -Sentiment split: bulls target $123k–148k, but late-cycle nerves and profit-taking setting in. Sentiment: Bullish with caution on late-cycle risk.

__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum : Tech sector bias supportive on higher timeframes (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Buy” on 1D/12H) despite MTFTI “Down” on intraday (15min to 6H). Key Supports : Major cluster at 111,900–112,772 (W Pivot High, 12H/24H Pivot Low). Critical defense short/mid term. Resistances : 114,723, then 115,900, then 119,800–122,318 (break to relaunch impulse). Volumes : Moderate to normal across all timeframes: no panic or capitulation. Multi-TF Behaviour : ISPD DIV neutral everywhere: neither fear nor euphoria; wait-and-see market. No climax nor emotional extremes: conducive to squeeze or extension after catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global Bias : Neutral to cautious bullish if 111,900–112,772 holds (invalidate if <111,900). Opportunities : Defensive swing long entries on support. Gradual targets: 114,723, 115,900, 119,800–122,318. Risks : Daily/4H close below 111,900 = acceleration towards $110k/$105k (on-chain air-gap). Macro Catalysts : Geopolitical tensions (Gaza/Ukraine/China), China crypto ban headlines, sector decoupling, Fed/BoE policy. Action Plan : Strict stop management (<111,750), agile on volume/ISPD signals. Critical macro monitoring: any exogenous move can trigger directional volatility. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D (Daily) : Key support 114,723.2. Tech sector indicator (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) bullish. MTFTI Up. Normal volume, no panic. Lack of ISPD oversold signal. 12H : Support W Pivot High 111,900 – 12H Pivot Low 111,920. Uptrend, moderately higher volumes, ISPD neutral. Battling for support maintenance and bounce. 6H : Core pivot support 111,900–112,000. MTFTI Down. No volume excess or sentiment signal. End of momentum, increase vigilance. 4H : Weakness confirmed, supports 112,000–112,500, resistance 117,722 to 119,800. Last short-term rampart tested. 2H-1H : Bearish, attacks on 111,900–112,772 supports, immediate resistance at 114,723/115,900. Weak range market. 30min-15min : Neutral, lower range between supports (111,900–112,772) and resistances (113,950–114,723). Volatility on breakout events, no sector bias. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Persistent “Buy” on higher timeframes (12H/1D), neutral/bearish intraday (4H and below). ISPD DIV : No extremes detected: no exhaustion, panic or major oversold; “range” environment. Volumes : Normal, no climax or anomaly. Market awaiting a catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Fundamental, Macro Events, Sentiment Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro : Newsflow on China crypto ban, multiple tensions (Gaza, Russia-Ukraine), Fed/BoE slowing. Globally cautious setting despite no direct institutional shock. On-chain (Glassnode) : Major OTC sale (~80k BTC) absorbed, 97% supply in profit: “moderate euphoria” phase, not capitulation; on-chain supports $110–117k, resistance $125–141k, air-gap below $115k. Twitter : No panic, “final wick” narrative then anticipated technical rebound. No institutional outflows. China ban read as cyclical FUD. __________________________________________________________________________________ Summary & Action Plan __________________________________________________________________________________ Support 111,900–112,772 = key multi-TF cluster; area for defensive swing opportunity. MTFTI is “Down” on lower TF, but Risk On / Risk Off Indicator bullish on daily/12H. No capitulation, normal volume, market waiting for catalyst. Swing bullish invalidated below 111,900—stop required, R/R 1:2 minimum. Fast reclaim above 114,723 plus strong upside volume: short squeeze & potential extension to 119,800–122,318. Macro monitoring essential (China ban, monetary policy, geopolitics). __________________________________________________________________________________ Operational Summary : Favor defensive swing long plans on multi-TF cluster support (111,900–112,772), strict stop <111,750, progressive TPs to 114,723/115,900/119,800. Stay opportunistic: bias cautiously bullish but risk management is paramount in a cautious global environment and with no strong extremes detected. __________________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Dominant bullish bias on higher timeframes (1D to 2H). Key Supports/Resistances: Key pivot zone at 114.7K–115.8K defended across all timeframes; major resistances at 119.7K, upside extension to 122.3K. Volume: Peaks on breakout, normal to high volumes depending on TF, no signs of seller capitulation. Behavioral Indicators: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator remains strong on all strategic TFs; ISPD DIV neutral except for a defensive buy signal on 1H. Multi-timeframe summary: Broad horizontal consolidation, no panic or euphoria detected. Major supports overlap, confirming structural strength amid macro volatility. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias: Bullish above 114.7K; neutral/slightly bearish below this key level. Opportunities: Longs via scalping/range trading on reactions at 114.7–115.8K; swing accumulation on daily/4H stabilization above 115K. Risk: Break below <114.7K, macro volatility around NFP/PMI, false breakouts. Macro catalysts: Expanded US tariffs (Trump), NFP, PMI, Fed status. Action plan: Reactivity on pivots, reduce exposure during macro events, hard stops <114.5K H4. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Working the 114723 pivot support. Bullish momentum, no excessive selling, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “STRONG BUY”. 12H-6H: Building a bottom on the daily base; sustained volumes during sell-off, no panic, technical buy signals emerging. 4H-1H: Vigorous support defense, 1H ISPD DIV “buy” signal. Healthy range pattern; volumes up during rebound attempts. 30min-15min: Slow recovery after high-volume drop, no euphoria or capitulation. No “trap” or imminent squeeze, favorable for tactical trades. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Higher TFs (1W/1D/12H/4H) show strong bullish signals, boosting risk confidence. Decorrelation with lower TFs allows flexible management, controlled accumulation, tight stops at 114.7K. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & BTC Context Summary (Twitter) __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro: US tariff shock, max volatility likely, amplified moves in equities and crypto. Bitcoin: Sharp correction post-record close, but solid supports remain, no sign of trend end. Integration: Technical status quo; favor defensive accumulation, caution on NFP/PMI. __________________________________________________________________________________ Actionable Synthesis: Plan & Risk Management __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategies: Longs/scalp >114.7K; swing/accumulate post daily/4H confirmation; partial TPs near 119.7K/122.3K. Risk Zones: Hard stop <114.5K. Tight monitoring around NFP for volatility spikes. Reward: Risk-to-reward >2 if buying lower range with strict stops. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Macro Events to Watch __________________________________________________________________________________ 2025-08-01: US NFP, unemployment, hourly wages – High volatility expected, possible swings 2025-08-01: ISM Manufacturing PMI – Short-term trend confirmation or invalidation 2025-07-30: FED conference – Range-bound / Moderate volatility US Tariffs (Trump) – Global risk-off, caution BTC & tech __________________________________________________________________________________ Conclusion __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC consolidates steadily between 114.7K–122.3K despite macro shocks Daily/H4 supports robust, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator strong on higher TFs Accumulation/scalping favored as long as supports defended Main risk = break of 114.7K, imminent macro volatility

__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Bullish momentum confirmed on all timeframes (1D to 1H). Key supports: 115,960 / 117,423 / 117,700. Main resistances: 119,573–119,800–122,318. Volumes overall normal to moderately high, no climax. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: strong buy signal for all higher TFs, neutral on 30m/15m (momentary exhaustion). ISPD DIV neutral across all frames, no extreme or behavioral signals. MTFTI trend: up / strong up across the board. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Main bias: confirmed bullish, high-range maintained between 116k–122k. Opportunities: buy on validated pullbacks between 116k–117.7k, take partial profits under 119.5k–122k. Risk areas: sharp downside below 115,960 with potential extension to 112k/110k. Macro catalysts: PCE (slightly above consensus), Fed on hold, moderate volatility. No negative crypto catalyst in sight. Action plan: Tactical stop-loss below 115,960, defensive management within range. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D – Support: 115,960 (Pivot Low), Resistance: 119,573–122,318. Strong momentum, resistance clusters. 12H/6H/4H – Bullish structure, moderate volume participation, consolidation under major resistance, pullbacks defended. 2H/1H – Compression between pivots, patience before breakout or support retest. 30m/15m – Tight consolidation, Up momentum but neutral behavioral signals, compression pre-move. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Strong buy on all TFs except intraday, neutrality on 30m/15m (temporary stall). ISPD DIV : No euphoria/fear, median persistent zone. Volumes slightly above average, healthy structure. Summary: Technical and fundamental confluence, upper range maintained, no reversal signals present. __________________________________________________________________________________ Summary and Strategic Plan __________________________________________________________________________________ Main bias: confirmed bullish on all frames, but increased caution above 122k. Plan: tactical buy only on validated pullback/price action, defensive profit-taking near resistance. Stop-loss below 115,960. Major invalidation under this threshold (low liquidity area). Monitor reactions to upcoming macro events (PCE/Fed) and any escalation in geopolitics. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro/Fundamentals & On-chain __________________________________________________________________________________ US Macro: PCE YoY above forecast (2.6% vs 2.5%), Fed on hold, USD under pressure. No systemic negative crypto alerts. IMF to classify BTC as “national wealth” from 2026. On-chain: Large liquidity test absorbed, 97% of BTC supply in profit, network consolidation in 117k–122k. Specific risk on break <115k: potential acceleration towards 110k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Summary: BTC/USDT is in a structural range 116k–122k with a dominant bullish bias, supported by technicals, strong macro and on-chain content. Accumulating at supports and defensive sells near resistance remain optimal until confirmation of a directional breakout. Suggested stop-loss: <115,960. Moderate risk until the next major macro/event catalysts. __________________________________________________________________________________