Technical analysis by Ox_kali about Symbol BTC on 8/8/2025

__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: 📊 Consolidation range below 119,800–123,218, primary trend still 📈 bullish; buyers defending 116,100–114,723. Key levels (TF): - Resistances: 117,800–118,600 (6H/4H supply); 119,800 (720 PH); 123,218 (D Pivot High). - Supports: 116,100 (6H/2H); 115,720 (240 PH); 114,723 (D Pivot Low); 112,600 (240 PL); 111,980 / 98,200 (W Pivots). Volumes: Normal across TF → no “Extreme Volumes” (need confirmation on breakouts). Multi-timeframe signals: HTF 1D/12H/6H/4H = Up; 2H = Down; 30m ISPD = Sell (LTF divergence). Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral → no sector-wide directional bias. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Global bias : Slightly 📈 bullish above 115,720/114,723; swing invalidation on a close < 114,723. Opportunities: - Buy pullback 116,100–115,700 toward 117,800/118,600/119,800. - Bullish breakout: acceptance 1D/12H > 119,800 → target 123,218. - Tactical short: clean rejection 117,800–118,600 while 2H = Down and 30m ISPD = Sell. Risk zones / invalidations: - Intraday longs: close < 115,700. - Swing longs: close < 114,723 (risk 112,600 → 111,980). - Shorts: LTF close > 118,600; structural: acceptance > 119,800. Macro catalysts (Twitter/News): - US pro‑crypto tilt (debanking review, retirement/PE/crypto access, Fed nominee) → sentiment tailwind. - Softer USD (BOE hawkish cut, Fed pick) → positive for risk/BTC. - US rates (30Y auction, yields) → a yield spike would weigh on breakouts. Action plan: - Pullback Buy: Entry 115,900; Stop 114,650; TP1 117,800, TP2 118,600, TP3 119,800 → R/R ~2.0–2.8. - Breakout Setup: Enter on RP 119,800–119,400 after 1D/12H close > 119,800 + volume; Stop 118,500; TP1 121,800, TP2 123,200, TP3 (runner) → R/R ≥2.0. - Tactical Short: Entry 118,200; Stop 118,700; TP1 116,600, TP2 116,100, TP3 115,700 → R/R ~1.6–2.5. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D/12H/6H/4H (Up): Bullish structure consolidating below 119,800; support cluster 115,720–114,723 holding; key setups = buy pullbacks + confirmed breakout > 119,800 toward 123,218. 2H (Down): Lower highs below 118,000; 117,800–118,600 supply favors tactical fades; needs flip > 118,600 to push 119,800. 1H/30m/15m (Up, with 30m ISPD = Sell): Sub‑range 116,100–117,900; buy scalps at 116,400/116,100; caution buying into 117,900–118,600 (rejection risk). Key divergences: HTF Up vs 2H Down + 30m ISPD Sell → higher odds of false breaks below 118,600/119,800. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro events: - US pro‑crypto stance (debanking review, retirement/PE/crypto access, Fed nominee) → better access/regulatory tone (Twitter sources). - Gold tariffs/repricing narrative → reinforces “digital gold”. - Softer USD and easing inflation impulses → support risk; watch long-end yields. Bitcoin analysis: - Technical: testing the upper bound of a rising wedge, momentum improving. - Institutional/access: treasury/banking initiatives may support participation. - Energy/valuation: Bitcoin Energy Value ~145,000 vs spot ~116,000 → implied discount. On-chain data: - Post‑ATH indecision; “air gap” 110,000–116,000. - STH in profit ~70% → fresh demand needed. - ETFs: ~−1,500 BTC outflow recently (risk if it persists). - Funding <0.1% → moderate leverage, less immediate squeeze. - On‑chain pivot ≈ 116,900 to reclaim; 119,800 critical for confirmation. Expected impact: - Friendlier macro + balanced on‑chain favor a cautiously bullish technical bias, but confirmation requires acceptance above 119,800 with volume. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ - Overall bias: cautiously 📈 bullish in a range; buy dips at 116,100–115,700; swing invalidation below 114,723. - Top setup: confirmed breakout > 119,800 with volume to target 123,218; otherwise fade 117,800–118,600. - Macro: US pro‑crypto tone and softer USD support BTC, but monitor UST yields.