Technical analysis by Ox_kali about Symbol BTC on 8/7/2025

__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum & context: Bullish bias confirmed on higher timeframes (1D/4H), but bearish divergences appearing from 2H downward. Major support/resistance: 114,600–115,000 and 114,667 hold as the critical zone. Key resistance: 116,900–117,000 must break for a bullish trigger. Volume: Normal on HTF. Very high volumes detected on 30min/15min during the 116,000+ resistance test (climax/reversal risk). Multi-timeframe behavior: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = “Strong Buy” from 1D to 1H, short-term sellers active below 2H (ISPD = Sell on 15min). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias: Bullish structure preserved, but fragility evident on intraday. Opportunities: Tactical buys possible on 114,600–115,000 (stop <114,000) or strong breakout above 116,900. Risk: Clear break below 114,000 = risk of drop to 110,000. Volume climax/ISPD Sell below resistance = profit taking advised. Macro catalysts: Ongoing geopolitical news (US/Russia/China), volatility during US announcements; post-Fed digestion. Action plan: Strict monitoring of ETF flows/funding/US news. Cautious accumulation on daily/4H, short-term shorts only if confirmed by lower timeframe signals. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Strong upward bias, price at major support, calm volume. 12H/6H/4H: Robust sectorial momentum (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Strong Buy”), daily/4H supports holding, initial bearish signs on 2H/1H. 2H/1H: Growing fragility: “Down” trend confirmed on 2H, momentum loss, buyer exhaustion visible. 30min/15min: Very high volumes under resistance, ISPD Sell 15min: short-term correction alert. Overbought microstructure, trigger risk if rejection at 116,000–116,250. Cross-TF summary: Market mostly “Up”, but tactical vigilance around supports, increased caution above 116,000. Summary: - Bullish structure maintained on daily/4H, but top/reversal warning signals on brief lowest TFs (15/30min). - 114,600–115,000 pivot zone is decisive: holding = increased stabilization/accumulation probability; break = risk of extension down to 110,000. - Active monitoring of ETF flows/funding/news is essential. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & Bitcoin Analysis (Twitter Summary) __________________________________________________________________________________ Geopolitical risks remain high, US/China protectionism & Fed on hold: crypto market in wait-and-see mode. BTC broke 116k, entered low-liquidity zone; rebound remains “fragile.” ETF flows: moderate return to buying, funding neutral. Possible post-pullback accumulation signal, but needs confirmation. Strategy: swing buy on defended/major supports, strict management if short-term seller signals (volume/ISPD). __________________________________________________________________________________ Action Steps __________________________________________________________________________________ Buy on 114,600–115,000 zone if confirmed by daily/4H, stop loss <114,000. Re-buy or more aggressive swing on clear breakout above 116,900–117,000. Take profits/short if clear rejection 116,000+ with volume climax/ISPD Sell. Monitor macro (US events), ETF flows, funding rate, volume behavior.Macro detailled news 07/08/25 : - US ramps up China trade war; 15% tariffs extended to Japanese imports and new India tariffs hit risk mood. - Russian stocks rally 4.5% on potential Trump-Putin summit; safe-haven flows in play. - SEC adopts a bullish stance on crypto staking, boosting broad sentiment. - Industrial output plunges in Germany & Sweden; Japanese population/data underline global stagflation risk. - US oil demand rebounds, but global sanctions keep energy markets volatile. - Bitcoin drops below $116K, entering low-liquidity territory after holding $100K+ for 91 days. - Whale Alert: 1,000 BTC (~$115M) leaves Bybit for unknown wallet—large players moving. - US Bitcoin ETF inflows turn positive after a 4-day pause; institutional desks stepping back in. - BTC funding rates cool off as post-ATH uncertainty grows; bull run faces a pause. - Coinbase pushes for AML/zero-knowledge overhaul post-data breach; privacy debate intensifies in stablecoins. Sentiment: Choppy optimism—macro crosswinds, but institutions circling. Insight: Geo and regulatory headlines are stacking up. Cautious consolidation could open up the next trend.