Technical analysis by Ox_kali about Symbol BTC on 8/13/2025

__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is hovering near 120.6k after a clean reclaim above the 119.8k pivot, now pressing into the 121k–122.3k daily supply cluster. Trend is bullish, but we’re trading into resistance. Momentum: 📈 Bullish, multi-timeframe HH/HL, yet approaching a dense 121k–122.3k supply. Key levels: - Resistances (4H/1D) : 121,000–121,500 • 122,318 (D) • 123,235 (240) - Supports (1H/4H/1D) : 119,800 (720 pivot) • 118,500 (240) • 115,860 (240) Volumes: Normal across most TFs; prior spikes accompanied the 119.8k breakout. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H trending up toward 122.3k; 4H/2H high-base consolidation; 30m/15m locally overbought under 121k, favoring pullbacks to 120.0k–119.8k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Neutral Buy backdrop, but tilting Neutral Sell → Sell on the very short-term, slightly contradicting the bullish push into resistance. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: uptrend intact—prefer buy-the-dip over chasing breakouts until we get a daily close above 122,318 with volume. Global bias: Buy bias (Neutral Buy) while 119.8k holds; key invalidation on a close below 119.8k. Opportunities: - Buy the dip at 120.0k–119.8k targeting 121.5k then 122.3k/123.2k. - Bullish breakout on H4/D close > 122,318 toward 123,235 (let it run if flows expand). - Tactical fade 120.9k–121.1k back to 120.0k if Risk On/Off stays in Sell on LTFs. Risk zones / invalidations: Strong rejection at 122.3k plus a close < 119.8k = bull trap risk and range-back toward 118.5k; loss of 118.5k could open 115.9k. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Spot ETF inflows remain positive and above new supply → supports dip-buying. - China liquidity mixed, Euro CPI contained, no major macro shocks → technical breakout must be confirmed by volume. - Rotation to ETH/Alts + slowing derivatives momentum → near-term cap risk on breakouts. Action plan: - Plan A (buy-the-dip): Entry 120.0k–119.8k / Stop < 119.6k / TP1 121.5k, TP2 122,318, TP3 123,235 • R/R ~2–3. - Plan B (breakout): Entry on retest 122.35k–122.5k after H4/D close > 122,318 / Stop ~122.0k / TP1 123,235, TP2 let it run • R/R ~1.5–2. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs remain bullish while LTFs are stretched into resistance. 1D/12H/6H: HH/HL above 119.8k; H4/D close > 122,318 unlocks 123,235; look for volume expansion to validate extension. 4H/2H: High-base consolidation under 121k–122k; better R/R on pullbacks to 120.0k–119.8k than chasing an immediate break. 30m/15m: Local overbought and Risk On/Off in Sell; higher odds of a pullback toward 120.0k/119.8k before any attempt above 122k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is calm-to-supportive; ETF flows backstop BTC, but rotation to alts and slower derivatives momentum argue for caution on breakouts. Macro events: China credit/liquidity mixed; Spain CPI contained (ECB pressure tempered); US deficit keeps the debasement/hedge narrative alive. Bitcoin analysis: Spot ETF inflows (+$65.9M) with IBIT buys > mined supply support demand; BTC dominance slipping (rotation to ETH/Alts) can cap near-term outperformance; futures momentum has cooled. On-chain data: Risk-on but not euphoric; compressed IV and high alts OI increase sensitivity to surprises; STH resistance near ~127k as an upper on-chain area. Expected impact: Constructive for dip-buys; demand confirmation (volume/flows) needed to validate a daily break above 122.3k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ An uptrend is probing a 121k–122.3k daily supply cluster with normal volumes and a mixed short-term Risk On/Off read. - Trend: bullish 📈 while 119.8k holds. - Top setup: buy-the-dip 120.0k–119.8k; only confirm continuation on a close above 122,318. - Macro: ETF inflows positive, macro calm; rotation into alts may cap BTC near-term. Stay patient: favor pullbacks and wait for an H4/D close with volume to “pay” the break above 122.3k. 👀