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📉 In the short term, Trump's proposed tariffs add to the current risk-off sentiment—ETF flows, correlations with stocks, and macro uncertainty are already weighing on Bitcoin.🗣 While debates rage on about whether tariffs will hurt importers or exporters or whether Trump will roll back some after negotiations, one thing is certain: inflation. And inflation is historically a positive for $BTC. 🌊Liquidity injections, growth of money supply (M2) and potential QE will follow as a weak economy struggles with disrupted supply chains—another long-term positive for Bitcoin⚖️ During trade wars and geopolitical uncertainty, investors run to gold. With Bitcoin’s correlation to gold, this could be another tailwind💡 So while tariffs may be a short-term drag, structurally, they are bullish for Bitcoin in the long run. You also need to remember that quite a lot of negativity is already built into the price, and if there is no new round of counter-tariffs, positive sentiment may appear sooner.#Bitcoin & Macro Update 📝As I said earlier, tariffs may be a short-term drag, but they are bullish for Bitcoin in the long run. And what we see now is that Bitcoin remains structurally strong.🧠 While headlines focus on risks, the deeper driver is liquidity. Historically, expansions in global money supply (M2) have been a key tailwind for Bitcoin, and BTC continues to mirror M2 with a 3-month lag.💡 Some short-term pullbacks are still possible, but overall, I expect the broader uptrend to continue. This will provide a breath of fresh air for the crypto market, which we are already beginning to witness.#Bitcoin & Liquidity Outlook 📝 When BTC dropped to $75K, many were quick to declare the start of a new bear market. But I repeatedly emphasized that this was a short-term correction, not a structural reversal. And so far, price action has followed that thesis.📍 As noted earlier, macro liquidity remains the key driver. Bitcoin continues to mirror the M2 money supply with a 3-month lag, and the latest surge in global liquidity is clearly reflected in BTC’s renewed strength.💡 While the broader picture remains bullish, opening light hedge shorts (on a small portion of the portfolio) in the $102K–$107K range could be a smart risk management option in the late phase of the market.

#Bitcoin Gaussian Channel 🐍 🗣In my last post, I pointed out that we had moved up too quickly and noted the possibility of consolidation or even a correction—which played out. On the oscillator, it was also indicated how this would unfold. 📉 Right now, we are testing the lower band of the channel. We could remain around these levels for a while, consolidating. 💡 What's next? Looking at multiple parameters, we appear to be nearing a local bottom. I firmly believe that we haven’t seen the global peak yet, and this year, we will break it multiple times. 🚀(Update) 🗣As I mentioned in the last post, we were likely forming a local bottom — and that’s exactly what happened. Since then, BTC has bounced back strongly and continued its uptrend. 📈Right now, we’re breaking ATH and approaching the upper band of the Gaussian Channel. Green bars are returning on the oscillator, which usually signals a continuation of the trend for a while longer. 💡But don’t forget: we’re already pretty close to the cycle peak. If your risk appetite is lower, some profit-taking here is a smart move. Also, there are still many altcoins that have not shown movement, our developments will help you choose them.

📝 Bitcoin is currently testing the baseline of the Bollinger Bands, which historically indicates that the sideways phase is nearing its end.📉 Volatility is stabilizing, and the market structure is tightening—this often precedes a significant new move.💡 The next big trend is on the horizon. Will it be an explosive breakout or a controlled rally like in 2021? I'm leaning more toward gradual growth, what do you think?#Bitcoin Bollinger Signal — Playing Out Just Like Expected 🎯📝 As I pointed out in my last post, this zone has historically acted as a launchpad rather than a breakdown point — and that’s exactly what we’re seeing now. 📍Despite all the macro noise — tariffs, rate fears, and rising volatility — BTC bounced cleanly from the bottom of the Bollinger Bands, just like in past cycles.🔄 The volatility is expanding again, but this time in Bitcoin’s favor. The market structure held firm, and that’s a good signal in itself.💡 While some short-term pullbacks are always possible, the trend is intact — and as long as BTC continues to hold above mid-band support, the path of least resistance is still up.Bollinger Update — Played Out Perfectly 🎯📝 In my last post, I said that we could expect a strong move up. And that’s exactly what happened.📈 BTC broke out from the mid-Bollinger band and rode the upper band with strength, just like in previous cycles where this pattern marked the beginning of major upside momentum.🔄 Volatility is now expanding in Bitcoin’s favor, and the breakout confirms strong structural support. Even with macro noise around tariffs and yields, the setup didn’t break—it launched.💡 While local pullbacks are always on the table, the main trend remains bullish. If you followed the signal early, this is where smart profit-taking and risk management come into play. Stay objective, stay ready.

BTC Global M2 or Global Liquidity?👥Many people pay too much attention to Global M2 even though it is not nearly as important to Bitcoin as global liquidity.📝Global M2 mostly does not give us any data on real liquidity infusions, just an increase in the money supply, which simply shows us inflationary expectations.📝Of course, against the background of inflationary expectations, owning Bitcoin is a good idea, but it does not directly influence the asset.💡At the same time Global liquidity, shows the actual actions of central banks, such as QE/QT, fiscal measures, and lending, which is more important.

BTC I haven't done a short-term analysis for a long time.👀I decided to show the key levels to watch, because the moment when it will be necessary to enter the market is coming soon.💡If there are no new geopolitical upheavals, and I expect that there probably won't be any. I think we will go back over BMS and test the important 70k level this month.BTC short-term analysis (update) ✅As I said, we did not see new geopolitical risks in the short term, and we reached the levels indicated earlier. 👀 Now we are starting to break the figure of the downward trend, at such a moment the number of short-term traders mainly increases, we can see this now because of the increased open interest, as well as liquidations. ‼ So, I would tell non-professional traders to be careful in short-term trades, because the market will beat traders in 2 directions. 💡Investors have nothing to worry about, we will soon overcome this zone of turbulence and enjoy the flight.BTC short-term analysis (update) 👀Continuing to move sideways in this defined range. The political confrontation in the US is reaching its finale. We are seeing increased volatility in the dollar. 💡I would expect the movement to continue in this range until it becomes clearer who the favorite is. I think in 1-2 weeks we will go above this range.BTC short-term analysis (update) 📝Uncertainty has disappeared from the markets. As I said in the last post, in a week we will go above this range, as soon as we find out the favorite. Which is what happened today. 💡Now we have broken through important resistance, and reached ATH, of course, after such optimism there are small pullbacks, but in general I am bullish in the long term.

Why are we falling and why do I think there will be no deep correction?🗣The first is, of course, geopolitics, risks are growing again in the Middle East,🗣The second is additional liquidity from the US government and mt GOX.🗣A crisis of narratives, nothing very positive will happen in the next 2 months, and the seasonality in those months also does not give anything positive.🗣Fears that key rates will be lowered will bring negativity to the market, as has been the case historically.Why these are not big problems?💡Geopolitics. I don't want to delve into possible options, but in the basic version, I expect a repetition of the option as it was in April, after which the situation cooled down.💡The market will absorb the liquidity here and as in the past, as we saw in the story with the sales of the German government.💡I think there will be narratives, and seasonality does not show us a deep correction, only consolidation.💡I consider that the negative will be only in snp500 and then very short-term. In general, lowering rates is positive, both for business and for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.P.S. In the table of seasonality, I left only the necessary months, taking away bear years and too early years.The entire 4-wave movement is complete, as predicted.☑️

BTC / SP500 Correlation 👀The picture of last summer is repeating itself🔁Seasonality in Bitcoin and additional pressure on the order book from large players led to the fact that we again have a discorrelation ▲ with the stock market.💡I think it is temporary, and soon they will converge again as it was last autumn↗️

#Bitcoin Keltner Channels 📈No one doubts that this cycle will be similar to a 3-wave one. In the last post, I said that I do not expect a fall in February and March, and even closer to the halving, the 2nd wave will begin to fade.💡That's what happened. Now we can see how the correction begins, I do not expect strong drops below 50k now, but rather a transition to consolidation. Now everyone is expecting a halving and there will be more volatility in Bitcoin in the coming days, but it will start to die down in mid-May.📝What to do now? Take a closer look at Ethereum, and altcoins and possibly rebalance the portfolio. You must be ready for the next move at the end of summer.📝Even at the beginning of this cycle, looking at various fundamental signs, I realized that this cycle can be 3-wave and as we can see, more than half of the cycle has already passed, and we continue to move along this pattern.💡According to this model, we will not have a dip below 50k, and closer to autumn we will start moving in the 3rd wave, this will be the main and biggest movement of BTC and altcoin in this cycle.↗️Has anything changed? No We are finishing the 2nd wave of movement. 📝The previous situation is a good example that you need to look at the world in general. Considering macroeconomics and fundamental analysis. How I do it every time. 🗣If you did not look at my analysis, but others, you can thank your analysts who drew you 100k in the summer, enjoyed the buy signal on the hash ribbon, or drew a cap & handle. 💡What awaits us in the future? Of course, the stock markets will be supported by the injection of liquidity, and we expect another powerful movement in the autumn.We are approaching the moment of the beginning of a new wave. 📝See the quoted post, bitcoin was then before the halving and took the ATH. All the analysts were shouting "that 100k would come soon". But at that time I already knew what the next half year was waiting for us. 📝The problem with the majority is that they cannot distinguish what is important from what is not in fundamental analysis. Most ignored overbought, seasonality, and liquidity. 🗣Now, some call the current situation a bear market and expect some deep bottoms, focusing only on one of the elements of technical analysis - the trend (LH/LL). 💡Think coldly, trust only proven analysts.🔥BTC 80k, the classic 3-wave movement has begun, as we and the Feels subscribers expected. 📝Some say that the crypto market is so unpredictable. Probably, these people do not know how to analyze it properly or simply do not follow me because, starting from the bottom of 16k, all local peaks/bottoms were predicted absolutely accurately. 💡By the way, from 80k and above, it is logical to start fixing a partial profit. Remember, from the advice to buy 16k, your profit is already 5x. This is a good time to collect the body of the investment and even more.

ETH reached local resistance in the form of the red zone of the channel, faster than the last cycle.What does this tell us? The consolidation before the next move may be longer.🤔Most will say that ETH has not reached ATH yet, so it should go up right now, I can say that ETH mostly lags in taking past highs and does it sometime after that like Bitcoin did.💡And the phase of more active growth is at the end of the cycle, so be patient and the market will thank you with a profit.The script↗️ was written by me two months ago and is still relevant.Ethereum will continue to consolidate in minus 25-35% from ATH.Currently, in anticipation of the full deployment of the ETF, the price begins to smoothly enter the red tape of the Keltner channel, mainly for the next movement a retest is required, as it was at the end of 2020.💡I think closer to autumn we will see a movement in the middle of the red tape, which will lead to its upper limit (6k+ at the moment)The ETH returns to the red channel again. This channel will likely serve as its main movement area until the peak in 2025.I expect turbulence in the coming days. But the start of ETF trading is, of course, a very positive event for adopting the 2nd cryptocurrency.But in the medium and long term, everything is going well for us, and we expect ATH to be beaten already in the fall.What's up with ETH?Today was difficult for the stock market, one of the biggest down days in the last 4 years. #Ethereum has a large technology team that makes it look like a company with a Nasdaq and it is not surprising that it is correlated with this drop today.🤔What's up with the ETF influx? So far, we have a strong outflow through grayscale, but according to forecasts, in a few weeks the outflow should end, and the inflow should increase.💡This generally coincides with our forecast for the cryptocurrency market, we expect positive things from autumn.

The stock market updates to the maximum(#ATH), Will Bitcoin do it?The recent growth of the stock market is due to strong reporting and growth of 5 companies (#NVDA #GOOGL #AMZN #META #MSFT) from the Magnificent Seven. Mostly because of the pending rate cut, the AI boom, and the influx of liquidity. 📝In general, there are enough problems in the stock market, the most positive comes from the expectation of liquidity and rate reduction closer to autumn due to political pressure. But at the moment we are a little overheated, I think that shortly there will be consolidation, before the continuation of growth.💡I think #Bitcoin will have something similar. The positive effect of ETH ETF and halving will help keep Bitcoin at the previous levels(60-72k), until the phase of active growth, which will start soon (~end of summer).