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The US ADP employment report for May was released as scheduled at 8:15, and the data was far below market expectations, triggering a violent market reaction. According to the ADP National Employment Report, the US private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, far below the market expectation of 110,000, the lowest increase since March 2023. Compared with the revised 60,000 new jobs in April, the slowdown in the labor market has further emerged. Although this data, known as the "small non-agricultural", is not directly equivalent to the non-agricultural employment report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics to be released on Friday, as a leading indicator, it has ignited the market's heated discussion on the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.Market immediate reaction: The dollar plunged and gold surgedAfter the data was released, the financial market responded quickly. The US dollar index plunged by about 20 basis points in the short term, hitting a low of 98.9783, breaking the 99 mark, and is currently at 99.0442, showing the market's sensitivity to weak employment data. The U.S. bond market was also under pressure, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield falling 0.58% to 4.421% during the day, reflecting investors' growing concerns about slowing economic growth. At the same time, spot gold rose by $6 in the short term, reaching a high of $3,354.52 per ounce, and is currently trading at $3,352.53 per ounce, highlighting the rising risk aversion sentiment.Institutional investors quickly captured the weak signal of the data. Some analysts said, "The ADP data was far below expectations, only 37,000, the lowest in more than two years. The trend is obvious, and the U.S. recruitment momentum is losing." Retail traders have more complicated emotions. Some traders pointed out: "ADP expected 112,000, but the actual number was only 111,000, slightly below expectations, which may become a trigger for the dollar to sell." In contrast, before the data was released, the market's expectations for the ADP data were relatively optimistic. The market had predicted: "If the ADP data is significantly lower than 112,000, the market may panic due to the slowdown of the employment engine." The actual data was far lower than this expectation, verifying the cautious judgment of some traders.Fed rate cut expectations: market sentiment turns to cautious optimismThe unexpected weakness of the ADP data adds a new variable to the Fed's rate cut expectations. Recently, market discussions on the Fed's monetary policy have heated up due to economic uncertainty caused by tariff rhetoric. Previously, the Fed's March meeting statement adjusted "uncertainty in the economic outlook" to "increased uncertainty", suggesting concern about the downside risks of the economy. The sluggish performance of the ADP data in May further reinforced this concern, and some institutions believe that this may prompt the Fed to reassess the pace of rate cuts.After the data was released, some institutions pointed out: "Job growth has slowed sharply, combined with the JOLTS job vacancy data (1.03 vacancies per unemployed person in April), the labor market is sending a danger signal." Retail traders believe that the timely ADP data has led to a short-term decline in the US dollar, but they are still bullish on the US dollar in the medium and long term. This view was partially fulfilled after the data was released.From a broader market sentiment perspective, the ADP data has exacerbated investors' concerns about an economic slowdown. Well-known institutions pointed out that the labor market continued to cool down under the uncertainty brought about by tariff rhetoric, and companies' willingness to recruit declined. Some companies only selectively filled vacancies and waited for the economic environment to become clear. In contrast, in the last quarter of 2024, ADP employment data showed strong resilience, such as 164,000 new jobs in December and 183,000 new jobs in January, both exceeding market expectations. The sharp decline in May data marks a shift from resilience to weakness in the labor market, which may provide the Federal Reserve with more room for interest rate cuts.Market trend impact: short-term volatility and long-term uncertainty coexistAfter the release of ADP data, the market fluctuated significantly in the short term. The rapid decline of the US dollar index reflects investors' reassessment of the economic outlook, while the rise of gold indicates an increase in safe-haven demand. The euro was boosted against the US dollar and is currently trading around 1.14, in line with the three-month target price predicted by recent institutions. It is worth noting that the total amount of speculative bets on the euro is close to US$12 billion, and traders are generally bullish on the euro, but if the exchange rate falls back to the 1.09-1.10 range, bulls may face the risk of losses. This dynamic echoes the dollar weakness caused by the ADP data, which may further push up the euro in the short term.In the U.S. stock market, the reaction after the data was released was relatively mild, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq index futures fell slightly in pre-market trading, indicating that the market's concerns about the economic slowdown have intensified. In contrast, when the ADP data for October 2024 was released (an increase of 233,000, exceeding expectations), U.S. stocks had a short-term rise. The current market sentiment is more cautious, and investors are waiting for Friday's non-farm data to confirm the true state of the labor market.From a historical perspective, the ADP data is consistent with the long-term trend of the non-farm payrolls report, but short-term fluctuations are not completely related. The ADP data in February 2025 only added 77,000, a 7-month low, and the non-farm data was also weak afterwards, triggering market concerns about a recession. The sluggish performance of the ADP data this time may indicate that the non-farm data on Friday will also be lower than the expected 125,000, which will further increase market volatility.Future trend outlook: Non-farm data is the key, and expectations of interest rate cuts may dominate the marketLooking ahead, Friday's non-farm payrolls will become the focus of the market. Institutions generally expect 130,000 new non-farm payrolls in May and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%. If the non-farm data also falls short of expectations, expectations of a Fed rate cut may further increase, the US dollar index may continue to be under pressure, and safe-haven assets such as gold are expected to continue their gains. On the contrary, if the non-farm data exceeds expectations, the market may reassess the resilience of the labor market, and the US dollar may rebound.Retail investor sentiment shows that traders have great differences in their views on short-term market trends. Some traders believe that "this week's initial jobless claims and non-farm data will determine the direction of the market, and ADP is just a prelude." Institutions are more concerned about long-term trends. Well-known institutions analyzed that "the slowdown in the labor market may prompt the Fed to release a clearer signal of a rate cut in its interest rate decision on June 19." Combined with historical data, after the weak ADP data in August 2024, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September rose to 45%, driving a short-term rebound in US stocks. In the current market environment, a similar scenario may repeat itself.Overall, the unexpected weakness of the ADP employment data in May sounded the alarm for the market. The signal of a slowing labor market and the economic uncertainty caused by tariff rhetoric have made investors more sensitive to the expectations of the Fed's policies. In the short term, the US dollar may continue to be under pressure, while assets such as gold and the euro are expected to benefit. In the long term, continued weakness in the labor market may force the Fed to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts, but the results of Friday's non-farm data will be crucial. Traders need to pay close attention to subsequent data and the Fed's statements to capture opportunities in the market with increased volatility. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

Gold prices (XAU/USD) retreated slightly during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, mainly due to the dollar's modest rebound from a six-week low and the recovery in risk sentiment. The overnight rise in risk assets weakened safe-haven demand, prompting some gold bulls to take profits.However, the market remains vigilant about the global situation. The continued expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the escalation of trade tensions between Asian powers and the United States, and the failure of the second round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have kept the market's risk aversion supportive of gold.Last weekend, US President Trump accused Asian powers of violating the preliminary tariff agreement and announced an increase in steel import tariffs from 25% to 50%. The US government also asked countries to submit their best trade proposals by July 8, showing that its position on tariffs is getting tougher.In addition, the Fed's policy expectations also provide important support for gold prices. Despite the short-term rebound in the US dollar, the market still expects the Fed to make at least two 25 basis point interest rate cuts in 2025. Comments from several Fed officials this week indicate that if the trend of inflation retreat continues and policy uncertainty is resolved, the timing of interest rate cuts may be brought forward.Fed Governor Waller said that even if the new tariffs may temporarily push up price pressure, there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts this year; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee pointed out that there is room for interest rates to fall in the next 12-18 months.After breaking through the $3324-3326 area, gold prices continued to rise and broke through the key resistance area of ​​$3355. At present, this position has turned into support. If the short-term adjustment does not fall below this area, it will be regarded as a confirmation process of stepping back. The lower support is at $3324 and $3300 respectively. After breaking through, it may test the $3286-3285 level.In terms of upper resistance, if the gold price breaks through the $3400 integer mark, it will open up space for upward movement, with the target looking at the $3430-3432 area. If the momentum continues, it is expected to challenge the historical high set in April again and hit the important psychological level of $3500.Editor's opinion:The current market is in a tug-of-war between the short-term recovery of the US dollar and the medium- and long-term safe-haven demand, but multiple fundamental factors are still bullish for gold, especially the rising geopolitical risks and trade concerns, the Fed's dovish expectations, and the background of US fiscal instability.Gold prices are expected to resume their upward trend after falling back to support near $3,355. Pay attention to the guidance of the non-agricultural data to be released on Friday on the US dollar and gold. XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

Spot gold continued its intraday gains, hitting a one-week high near $3,359 in the European session. Concerns about the deteriorating fiscal situation in the United States, coupled with the market's general expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in 2025, have caused the dollar to fall back to near the monthly low; this trend has provided important support for gold.Fundamental analysisU.S. economic data showed that inflationary pressures continued to ease. Data released by the United States last Friday showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in April increased by 2.1% year-on-year, hitting a new low since February 2021. The core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.5% year-on-year, down from 2.7% in March. This data further strengthened the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that even if the Trump administration's tariff policy may temporarily push up price pressures, a rate cut later this year is still possible. Traders continue to bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September and expect another rate cut in December. Several FOMC members will speak this week, including an appearance by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell later on Monday, which will provide important clues about the outlook for monetary policy.According to Reuters, geopolitical risks continue to heat up. Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on military airports in five Russian regions on the eve of the second round of direct peace talks. Meanwhile, Israel strongly denied involvement in the incident that killed at least 30 Palestinians and accused Hamas of firing on hungry civilians gathered to receive humanitarian aid. These geopolitical tensions provided additional support for safe-haven asset gold.Technical:From the daily chart, spot gold successfully broke through the key resistance area of ​​$3325-3326, triggering a technical buying influx. The price is running below the upper Bollinger Band at $3409.08, the middle track at $3295.04 provides dynamic support, and the lower track at $3181.00 constitutes far-end support.The important resistance above is at the integer level of $3,400 and the previous high of $3,430, and the support below is $3,300 and $3,250 respectively.The MACD indicator shows that the DEA line is 23.11 and the DIF line is 22.85. The narrowing distance between the two lines indicates that an upward crossover signal may appear.In terms of the RSI indicator, the 14-day RSI is 56.63, which is in a strong position in the neutral area, suggesting that there is still room for growth. The RSI indicator shows a gradual upward trend, forming a positive correlation with the price trend, confirming the effectiveness of the current upward trend.Market sentiment observationThe current market sentiment is clearly biased towards risk aversion. The general pressure on the equity market reflects the decline in risk appetite, and funds flow to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. The US dollar index fell back to near the monthly low, providing additional support for gold prices. The market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy shift are constantly heating up. The interest rate cut in September is almost a foregone conclusion, and expectations of another interest rate cut in December are also increasing.Traders are watching the intensive speeches of Fed officials this week, especially Powell's speech, for more clues on the direction of monetary policy. At the same time, important economic data will be released at the beginning of the month, including the ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, which will provide the market with the latest assessment of the health of the US economy. Geopolitical uncertainty continues, and the situation in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East provide continued safe-haven demand support for gold.OutlookShort-term outlook: With technical breakthroughs and positive fundamentals, gold is expected to test the $3,400 round mark in the short term. If it can effectively break through this position, it will open up further room for growth to the previous high of $3,430. However, traders are wary of profit-taking pressure, and the $3,325-3,330 area has become an important support.Long-term outlook: The Fed's expectations of a rate cut cycle, continued geopolitical risks, and concerns about the US fiscal situation will continue to support the medium- and long-term trend of gold. However, if US economic data is stronger than expected or the Fed's stance turns hawkish, it may limit gold's gains. Traders are concerned about the effectiveness of the medium-term support of $3,250, and the loss of this position may change the current upward pattern. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD

1. Core drivers of fundamentalsGeopolitical risks escalateA number of "black swan" events occurred on the eve of the second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine: the collapse of bridges in two Russian states, the destruction of 41 Russian strategic bombers by Ukraine, and the resignation of the Ukrainian Army Commander, exacerbating the uncertainty of the situation.Tensions in the Middle East continue: Iran claims to be ready to defend its airspace at any time, and the Houthi armed forces use hypersonic missiles to attack Israeli airports.Trade policies repeatedly disturb the marketTrump plans to increase steel tariffs from 25% to 50%, and the EU has announced that it will take countermeasures, exacerbating global trade concerns.The U.S. Federal Court of Appeals has suspended the ban on Trump's tariffs, and policy uncertainty supports safe-haven demand.Federal Reserve policy and economic data gameThe U.S. PCE inflation data for April was weak (2.1% year-on-year), and the market bet that the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 87%, but Fed officials emphasized that more data is needed to assess the risk of stagflation.The U.S. dollar index fell to 99.33 (a two-week low) in early trading, providing short-term pricing support for gold.Long-term support factorsGlobal central banks continue to buy gold: the purchase volume in 2024 will exceed 1,000 tons, and China's gold imports in April hit an 11-month high.Citi raised its 0-3 month target price to US$3,500, and Minsheng Securities is optimistic about the upward movement of the gold price center.2. Key technical pointsSupport level:Short-term: 3280-3286 (4-hour Bollinger band middle track + gap).Strong support: 3260-3270 (weekly trend line, break down to 3245).Resistance level:Key pressure: 3325-3334 (previous high + daily Bollinger upper track).Breakthrough target: 3350-3365 (open the channel to 3400).Technical signal: daily MACD bottom divergence, 4-hour RSI oversold repair, but there is double top suppression above 3330.3. Optimal trading strategyShort-term operation (intraday)Long strategy (pullback and long):Entry conditions: Rebound to 3286-3292 range and stabilize, and the US dollar index does not break through 99.60.Target: 3310→3325→3334, stop loss: below 3280.Short strategy (rebound and high):Entry conditions: Rebound to 3326-3334 range and encounter resistance, or the US dollar index stabilizes at 99.80.Target: 3300→3286, stop loss: above 3340.Mid-term layout (1-2 weeks)Bullish logic: Central bank gold purchases + stagflation risk + normalization of geopolitical conflicts support long-term upward movement.Entry time: If the 3250-3270 area is not broken, build long orders in batches, stop loss 3230, target 3350-3400.IV. Risk Warning and Event ResponseKey Events:Results of the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks (Istanbul talks): If the talks break down, risk aversion will surge, and the gold price may hit 3350; if the talks go smoothly, the gold price will be suppressed.10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI: If it is lower than 48 (previous value 48.7), it will strengthen the expectation of economic slowdown and benefit gold.Risk Control Points:Position Control: Short-term ≤2% of total funds, medium-term ≤5%; margin ratio of high leverage accounts <10%.Strict stop loss: reduce positions before data is released to avoid fluctuations caused by ISM data.Operation Principle: Light position trading, give priority to the breakthrough direction of the 3286-3334 range, and the geopolitical situation dominates intraday fluctuations. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD

The financial market is welcoming a thrilling week! The first week of June is not only a traditional data "super week", but also a multi-national central bank monetary policy game, a major test of the US job market, and Trump's tariff policy surprise attack. This article will take you to deeply analyze every key moment that may cause a huge market shock, and provide investors with a comprehensive trading guide.Geopolitical situationAccording to the news released by the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs on June 1, local time, the second round of talks between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations is scheduled to be held at 13:00 local time on June 2 (Monday) at the Cirali Palace in Istanbul.However, there are still big differences between the two sides on how to end the war, and the war is escalating. Investors need to pay close attention.ECB decision: Is the interest rate cut a foregone conclusion?Global attention will also focus on the ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday. The current market is betting with almost 99.46% certainty that the central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2%, which will be an important measure for the eurozone to cope with economic weakness. But more critical than the interest rate cut itself is the policy guidance given by President Lagarde at the press conference. Investors need to pay special attention to its statement on the future interest rate path. Any hint of "wait and see" or "further easing" will cause sharp fluctuations in the euro.Before the resolution, the eurozone will also release a series of important economic indicators. Tuesday's initial inflation and unemployment data will set the tone for the market first, followed by the final service PMI, PPI, retail sales and other data. Germany, as the economic engine of the eurozone, will also release final PMI, trade account and industrial production data, which will become an important basis for assessing the health of the European economy.US data feast: non-agricultural leads the all-star lineupThe United States across the Atlantic will stage a "serial cannon" of data. Monday's ISM manufacturing index will be the first to fire, followed by Tuesday's JOLTS job vacancies and ADP "small non-agricultural" data to warm up the job market. Wednesday's ISM non-manufacturing index, the Federal Reserve Beige Book and Thursday's initial jobless claims will be on stage, and finally on Friday, the finale will usher in the May non-agricultural employment report.The market generally expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 130,000, the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage to increase by 0.3% month-on-month. But what is more noteworthy is that 11 Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Powell, will speak intensively. These speeches may reveal the Fed's new policy ideas in the context of repeated inflation, laying the groundwork for the June interest rate meeting.Trump tariff bomb: global trade is in turmoil againThe market will usher in an uncertain factor on Wednesday - US President Trump plans to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%. This suddenly announced trade protection measure may trigger a new round of turmoil in the global supply chain, especially for major metal exporting economies such as Canada and the European Union. Traders need to be wary of abnormal fluctuations in related currency pairs and chain reactions in commodity markets.Bank of Canada: Behind the inactionCompared with the European Central Bank's active actions, the Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its 5% benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday. Although the country's core inflation unexpectedly rebounded in April, 76% of market expectations show that policymakers are more inclined to wait and see. Investors should pay close attention to the assessment of inflation trends in the policy statement. Any statement that "high interest rates need to be maintained for a longer period of time" may boost the Canadian dollar.Asia-Pacific market: Chinese data in focusIn the Asia-Pacific region, China's Caixin manufacturing and service PMIs will become key indicators to measure the recovery progress of the world's second-largest economy. Australia will release heavy data such as first-quarter GDP and current account, and the minutes of the central bank meeting may also reveal policy clues. Japan is relatively calm, but Friday's household spending data is still worth paying attention to. The speeches of the central bank governor and deputy governor may hint at the possibility of monetary policy fine-tuning.UK market: relatively flatThe UK's economic calendar this week is relatively light, with only minor data such as the construction industry PMI. But the "fireside chat" of monetary policy committee member Mann may reveal the central bank's latest judgment on the stubbornness of inflation.Conclusion: Fasten your seat belts to welcome volatilityThis week's financial market is like a roller coaster. From central bank decisions to heavy data, from trade frictions to political risks, every trading day may cause violent market fluctuations. Investors are advised to strictly control their positions and focus on the sustainability of the ECB's policy shift, the resilience of the US job market, and the evolution of sudden trade conflicts. In this eventful week, flexibility and vigilance will be the key to success.

In the 4-hour gold cycle, gold hit a high yesterday and then fell back after encountering resistance, but finally received effective support and stabilized at the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. This signal further highlights the importance of the middle track as a watershed for long and short positions. As long as the price remains above the middle track, the strong shock pattern will not be destroyed. In addition, the 618 golden ratio line of 3317-18 has been strongly broken through and stabilized. The support level formed by the short-term 5-day moving average is near 3315. Therefore, the 3315-3318 range can be regarded as the primary support area for the day's retracement confirmation. If this support range can effectively absorb the selling pressure, the gold price is expected to continue its upward trend and impact the 786 division resistance level of 3370. It is particularly important to note that once the price breaks through the previous high of 3345, the MACD indicator will simultaneously show a top divergence signal. At this time, if the price continues to rise, we must be highly vigilant about the risk of a decline after the main force induces more buying. XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

Spot gold continued its strong performance this week before the European market. After a technical retracement from a two-week high in the previous trading day, it attracted bargain-hunting buying again and the trading price remained above $3,300. Fundamental factors continue to provide upward momentum for precious metals. Gold has risen 3% this week and is expected to record its best single-week performance since early April.Fundamental AnalysisThe Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed Trump's "Big, Beautiful Act" by a narrow margin on Thursday. The comprehensive bill covering tax cuts and spending is now submitted to the Senate for deliberation and is expected to add about $3.8 trillion to the federal government debt over the next decade, raising market concerns about the deterioration of the US fiscal situation. Earlier, Moody's rating agency downgraded the US credit rating from the highest level "Aaa" last week, and the weak 20-year Treasury auction results on Wednesday showed that the market demand for US assets has weakened. These factors, combined with the uncertainty of the US economic outlook, continue to suppress the performance of the US dollar and provide support for gold denominated in US dollars.Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about the economic and business confidence brought about by the uncertainty of the Trump administration's trade policy. Last week's U.S. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data both showed mild inflationary pressures, further reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates. CME Federal Funds Futures Instruments show that the market expects a significant increase in the probability of at least two 25 basis point rate cuts this year. This monetary policy expectation further limits the upside of the U.S. dollar and provides additional support for non-yielding gold assets.Geopolitically, Trump reportedly informed European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not ready to end the conflict with Ukraine because he believes that Russia is winning. At the same time, the Israeli military has stepped up its military operations in Gaza, increasing the risk of further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. These developments have verified the near-term positive outlook for safe-haven commodity gold.Technical:From a technical perspective on the daily chart, spot gold shows a typical upward trend pattern. The price is currently running around $3,330.00, above the key upward trend line, indicating that the bull market structure remains intact. The Bollinger Band system shows that the price is supported near the middle track of $3301.24, and the upper track of $3420 and the lower track of $3175.11 constitute the current fluctuation range.In terms of MACD indicators, the DIFF line is 20.57, the DEA line is 24.62, and the MACD histogram is -8.09, indicating that there is a certain adjustment in short-term momentum. Although the MACD line is above the zero axis, the histogram is negative, indicating that the price may face short-term consolidation needs.The current reading of the RSI relative strength index is 55.96, which is in the neutral area and has fallen from the previous overbought level. This technical signal shows that the market is undergoing a healthy technical adjustment after the previous rapid rise, accumulating momentum for subsequent rises.Market sentiment observationThe current gold market shows a cautious and optimistic sentiment. On the one hand, fundamental positive factors continue to accumulate, including escalating geopolitical risks, intensified US fiscal concerns, and support from monetary policy expectations, which maintain the market's bullish sentiment basis. On the other hand, the short-term adjustment signals shown by technical indicators remind traders to pay attention to profit-taking pressure.Traders generally believe that the current pullback is a healthy technical consolidation rather than a trend reversal. The continued existence of safe-haven demand provides a solid bottom support for gold prices, while the relative weakness of the US dollar further strengthens the attractiveness of precious metals.OutlookIn the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the range of $3260.00-3380.00. The key support levels are concentrated at the rising trend line of $3260.00 and the Bollinger middle track level of $3301.24. If the price can hold these support levels, it is expected to retest the resistance level of $3380.00 and challenge the previous high of $3420.In terms of medium- and long-term prospects, the continued support of fundamental factors has created a positive investment environment for gold. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about the US fiscal situation are expected to continue to provide upward momentum for precious metals in the coming months. Technically, some analysts believe that as long as the price remains above the long-term moving average of $3120.64, the upward trend pattern will remain valid.Risk factors mainly come from the potential rebound of the US dollar and the easing of geopolitical situation. If US economic data improves significantly or trade tensions show signs of easing, it may weaken the safe-haven demand for gold. Traders are concerned about the effectiveness of the $3260.00 support level, and the loss of this level may trigger a deeper technical adjustment. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD

Spot gold prices continued to rise before the U.S. market opened, hitting the $3,320 level during the day. Market concerns that the situation in the Middle East may get out of control and Trump's fiscal bill was blocked in Congress became the main factors driving precious metals higher.Fundamental analysisReports show that Israel is considering launching an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, which has triggered a surge in risk aversion in the market. Although the Biden administration has successfully persuaded Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to change his mind, the Trump administration's diplomatic efforts seem to be deadlocked, and the market has begun to question whether Trump can still influence Netanyahu's actions.At the same time, the Trump administration is also facing challenges at home, and its tax bill has difficulty gaining enough support in Congress. Trump was clearly frustrated when he talked to lawmakers who demanded a significant increase in the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. In addition, after Trump's call with Putin, the Vatican has proposed to hold events related to the Ukraine-Russia peace talks, which also brings some uncertainty to the market.Technical aspects:From the daily chart analysis, spot gold is at a key technical node. The price has broken through $3,230 and found support at $3,300. The Bollinger Band indicator shows that the middle track is at about $3,299 and the upper track is about $3,429, which is the short-term target area. In the MACD indicator, the MACD value is -22.61, indicating that the short-term momentum is weakening. However, the price remains above the long-term rising trend line, indicating that the medium- and long-term bullish pattern has not been destroyed.From the RSI indicator, the current value is 54.85, which is in the neutral area and does not show obvious overbought or oversold signals. It is worth noting that the price encountered obvious resistance at the $3,360 level, forming a double top pattern, which may indicate an increase in short-term adjustment pressure. At the same time, the support line at $3,120.64 has become a key line of defense below, and if it is lost, it may trigger a deeper adjustment.From the trend line analysis, gold has maintained a steady upward channel since the beginning of this year. Although there was a high point decline in mid-April, the overall trend integrity has not been destroyed. At this stage, the price is consolidating in the $3,230-3,360 range, and the breakthrough direction will determine the medium-term trend. The round mark of $3,500 above will be an important target after breaking through the upward trend.Market sentiment observationThe current market sentiment is significantly biased towards risk aversion, and geopolitical tensions have promoted the safe-haven properties of gold. The Middle East risk premium is reflected in the trend of gold prices, and the market's willingness to hedge and arbitrage has increased significantly. Traders' confidence in the US dollar has wavered, and the uncertainty of US fiscal policy has further exacerbated this trend.Outlook for the future marketBullish outlook: If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates further, especially if Israel confirms its plan to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, gold prices may break through the upper edge of the recent consolidation range of $3,360 and advance to the round mark of $3,500. The continued political deadlock in the US Congress will also weaken the US dollar and indirectly support gold prices. In the medium term, the continued increase in global central bank gold reserves will provide solid support for gold prices.Short outlook: From a technical perspective, the price is close to the neckline of the double top pattern, and there is a risk of a technical correction. If geopolitical tensions ease and market risk appetite recovers, gold prices may fall back to test the $3,230 support level, or even drop to $3,120. In the long run, if the US fiscal policy becomes clearer and economic data improves, a rebound in the US dollar index will suppress gold prices. XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

From the daily chart, the price of gold has shown a clear upward trend since the beginning of this year, but has recently begun to show signs of consolidation. The current price is trading in the $3,250 area, which is a certain correction from the high of $3,500. The RSI indicator shows that the current value fluctuates around 50, which is neither in the overbought nor oversold area, indicating that the market is in a relatively balanced state. The recent RSI indicator has stabilized after falling from a high level, suggesting that there may be potential for a new round of increases.From the perspective of support and resistance, the current price faces an important resistance level of $3,350 above; if it can effectively break through this level, it is expected to retest the upper level of the Bollinger Band of $3,378-3,392. The lower support is around $3,170, which is also the lower edge of the recent fluctuations.From the perspective of bulls, the price of gold is expected to continue to rise supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. If the price can effectively break through the $3,350 resistance level, it is expected to retest the $3,500 high and even challenge the psychological barrier of $3,600. Factors supporting this view include ongoing geopolitical tensions, U.S. debt problems, and a possible weakening of the U.S. dollar.From a short-term perspective, if global trade tensions ease further and market risk appetite improves, gold's safe-haven appeal may be weakened. Technically, if the price loses the $3,170 support level, it may fall further to the $3,100 area, or even test the $3,000 round mark. XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD

After Bitcoin’s recent breakout above $106,000, the price has come to a crossroads. BTC has hit a critical resistance zone around $107,000 in the short term. This area has historically been a turning point for past rallies. Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) shows that its momentum has weakened somewhat, having climbed into the overbought zone since May 15. A move into this zone usually signals a short-term pullback. This means that BTC could be about to see a short-term pullback, especially when the RSI signals overbought. This degree of profit-taking usually increases selling pressure and triggers a significant drop in the price of the asset.Major Support and Resistance LevelsBTC is considering support between $95,850 and $98,730 in the short term. At least 1.19 million wallets have accumulated more than 1 million BTC at the $98,732 price level, making this price level a major demand area. If BTC falls below this support level, the asset could see a deeper pullback. However, if BTC maintains above the support level, the asset is likely to consolidate and accumulate momentum for the next leg up. After that, $116,900 will be the next major target. Therefore, the Bitcoin price range shows that $98,131 and $116,900 will be the key support and resistance levels for BTC in the coming weeks. BTCUSD BTCUSD BTCUSD BTCUSD