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On Wednesday (June 11), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, showing lower-than-expected inflationary pressures. The overall CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the market's expectation of 0.2%, and rose 2.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than the expected 2.5%, but higher than 2.3% in April. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.1% month-on-month and remained flat at 2.8% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 2.9%. . .The mild data, coupled with concerns raised by Trump's tariff remarks, triggered a sharp market reaction, and investors quickly adjusted their expectations of the Fed's policy and their judgments on asset price trends. This article will analyze the market's immediate reaction, compare the interpretations of institutions and retail investors on the X platform, and assess future trends. . .Market background and immediate reactionBefore the release of the CPI data, market sentiment was tense, and investors paid close attention to whether inflation accelerated due to Trump's tariff remarks. CPI, employment data and PCE are key macro indicators, and the U.S. stock index may be close to a turning point. If the CPI exceeds 2.5% year-on-year, the expectation of a rate cut in 2025 may be shattered; if it is lower than 2.4%, it may be temporarily beneficial to risky assets. These views show that market expectations fluctuate, and generally tend to favor CPI slightly higher than expected (2.5%), as tariffs may push up prices. . .The actual data was mild, triggering a rebound in risk appetite. The U.S. stock market rose rapidly, with the Nasdaq index rising more than 1% after the release, reflecting optimism about easing inflation. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 2.6 basis points to 4.45%, indicating that market concerns about continued inflation have eased. The U.S. dollar index fell about 40 points in the short term to 98.6279 as traders lowered their expectations for the hawkish Fed. Precious metals performed strongly, with spot gold rising 1.13% to $3,360.05/ounce and the main COMEX gold futures contract rising 1.15% to $3,381.70/ounce. Spot platinum broke through $1,260/ounce, up 3.74%. The main contract of NYMEX crude oil futures rose 2.11% to $66.35 per barrel, despite a 3.5% year-on-year decline in energy CPI. . .European markets also turned to risk appetite, with eurozone stocks rising and German 10-year government bond yields rising slightly by 0.5 basis points to 2.53%, but 2-year yields fell by 2 basis points to 1.84%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 0.56 points to 16.39, the lowest since February 21, reflecting the easing of market tensions. . .Interpretation of institutions and retail investorsAfter the release of CPI data, institutional and retail investors had different views. Institutional analysis is more rational, focusing on Fed policy and long-term inflation trends. The lower-than-expected CPI reinforced expectations of two interest rate cuts in 2025, and the market's pricing for the rate cut in the next year has increased from 67 basis points to 77 basis points, which is good for the stock and bond markets. Another agency acknowledged that the data was mild, but warned that tariffs in the second half of 2025 could push up inflation, and suggested paying attention to US policy uncertainty. . .The reaction of retail investors was mixed with surprise and caution. Some investors were surprised by the soft data, believing that the market's previous expectations of 0.1% month-on-month CPI and core CPI were too pessimistic, but doubted whether the rising trend could continue, as the tariff effect could push up prices. Some investors also mentioned the "hidden dangers" of limited BLS data collection, believing that inflation may be underestimated, echoing reports of BLS staff shortages (reduced by at least 15%). It is believed that although the data is favorable for expectations of interest rate cuts, policy or geopolitical changes may trigger sharp fluctuations in asset prices. . .Compared with before the release, market sentiment has shifted from concerns about high inflation to balanced discussions. Before the release, retail investors were worried that high CPI would suppress expectations of interest rate cuts, while institutions expected a moderate upward trend. The mild data reversed this trend, and institutions were more optimistic about interest rate cuts, while retail investors questioned the sustainability of the rise. . .The impact of Fed policy and market dynamicsThe May CPI data reinforced the Fed's cautious stance. Both the headline CPI (2.4%) and the core CPI (2.8%) were above the 2% target but below expectations, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% at its June meeting. Real weekly wages rose 1.5% year-on-year and hourly wages rose 1.4%, indicating stable consumer purchasing power, reducing pressure for an immediate rate cut. However, the market's pricing of a 77 basis point rate cut by mid-2026 (about two 25 basis point rate cuts) reflects confidence in the Fed's shift to easing, especially when tariffs have not yet significantly increased inflation. . . .Retailers stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, delaying the price transmission effect. Data show that retailers such as Walmart have begun to raise prices, and inflation is expected to rise in the second half of 2025. BLS resource shortages (suspending CPI data collection in three cities and planning to stop publishing about 350 PPI indices from August) have raised concerns about data reliability, which may further disrupt market expectations. . . .The rise in precious metals reflects the market's safe-haven demand for geopolitical risks such as tariff rhetoric and the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The decline in the US dollar is consistent with the reduction of inflation concerns, while the rise in crude oil prices is driven by supply-side factors. The Nasdaq, led by technology stocks, benefited from easing expectations, but the VIX fell to a multi-month low, indicating that the market may be too optimistic and external shocks may trigger a correction. . .Future OutlookLooking ahead, the market faces a delicate balance. The mild CPI provides breathing space for risky assets, but the risk of tariffs pushing up inflation remains. Well-known institutions expect inflation to be close to 3% in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 as retailers gradually pass on costs. If the PCE data continues the CPI trend, expectations for rate cuts may be suppressed. Geopolitical and policy uncertainties such as the situation between Russia and Ukraine and tariff rhetoric may exacerbate volatility in commodity and currency markets. . .In the short term, risk appetite is dominant, and stocks and precious metals may continue to rise unless PCE or employment data unexpectedly rise. The bond market reacted mildly, and the stability of Treasury yields shows that investors are still skeptical about the continued decline in inflation. Retail price trends and BLS data quality need to be closely monitored. If the market believes that inflation is underestimated, confidence may be damaged. . .In short, the May CPI data injected short-term optimism into the market, driving up risk assets and reinforcing expectations of rate cuts. However, tariff rhetoric, geopolitical risks and data reliability issues mean that volatility will remain the main theme in 2025. . . XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD

On Tuesday (June 10), spot gold rebounded slightly from around 3,300 during the session, and maintained a sideways consolidation pattern in the European session, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Traders focused on the second day of high-level talks between major economies in London, waiting for more clear signals to determine the direction of the next stage. At the same time, the strong non-farm data in the United States last week pushed the dollar to rebound, suppressing gold prices. However, the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the future, and the escalation of the geopolitical situation has provided some support for gold. . .Fundamental analysis: 👇👇👇👉The current trend of gold is constrained by multiple macro factors. On the one hand, the strong US non-farm payrolls data reduced the probability of the Fed's immediate interest rate cut this year, boosting the US dollar in the short term and suppressing non-yielding assets such as gold. At the same time, as the US Treasury yields rebounded in stages, it also put pressure on gold prices.👉On the other hand, the market still holds strong expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut path in 2025. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently expect the probability of a rate cut in September to be close to 60%. In addition, the poor fiscal situation and expanding deficits in the United States still cause long-term inflation concerns in the market, increasing the demand for gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation properties.👉In terms of geopolitics, Reuters reported that Russia's large-scale attack on Ukraine once again ignited market risk aversion, which also limited the downward space of gold prices to a certain extent.Technical side: 👇👇👇👉From the daily chart, spot gold is currently maintaining a consolidation near the middle track of the Bollinger band. The narrowing of the Bollinger channel shows that the market volatility continues to compress, and the market has entered a "Bollinger band squeeze" state, suggesting that the window for a change is approaching.👉The K-line combination is characterized by a continuous small real candlestick line, with a gradually narrowing volatility, a typical sideways pattern, and the price repeatedly saws around 3330. The Bollinger middle rail (3307.22) provides some support, and the Bollinger upper and lower rails are located at 3424.72 and 3189.73 respectively, forming a short-term range.👉The key support level can be seen at the 3250 mark, which corresponds to the previous consolidation platform and the structure below the Bollinger middle rail. If it falls below, it may trigger a further decline to the 3189 area. The upper resistance is concentrated at 3380 and 3425. The latter is the overlapping area of ​​the Bollinger upper rail and the previous high. If it breaks through, it is expected to open up room for growth.👉In terms of MACD indicators, DIFF and DEA continue to stick together, and the histogram oscillates close to the zero axis. There is a lack of momentum guidance, and the trend is not clear yet. The RSI indicator hovers around 53, which is also in a neutral to strong area, indicating that market sentiment has not yet reached extremes.👉Overall, gold is in a typical "consolidation market", and traders are concerned about whether the direction selection is triggered by news.Market sentiment observation: 👇👇👇🤩🤩🤩The market is currently in a state of high alert, with technical graphics and fundamentals forming an intertwined influence. On the one hand, traders still have hope for the future path of the Fed's interest rate cuts, which makes bargain-hunting buying power still exist; on the other hand, the strong performance of non-agricultural data has caused some funds to wait and see, waiting for two key inflation data, CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday, to judge the Fed's policy trends.In addition, the steady performance of risk assets has limited the large inflow of safe-haven funds into gold. Risk preference and risk aversion are intertwined, making gold lack clear trend momentum in the short term.Outlook for the future: 👇👇👇🤩🤩🤩Short-term outlook: 👇👇👇🤩🤩🤩In the short term, gold may continue to maintain a consolidation structure, and the market will wait for the results of inflation data to be oriented again. Analysts believe that if CPI weakens and the Fed's expectations of rate cuts increase, gold prices may break through the 3380 line; if the data is strong, we need to be wary of a retracement below the Bollinger middle track to the 3250 area.Medium- and long-term outlook: 👇👇👇🤩🤩🤩In the medium and long term, analysts believe that gold still has the macro logic of buying low and deploying medium-term long positions against the backdrop of the Fed's expectations of an easing cycle and the failure of US fiscal pressure to substantially ease. The continued escalation of geopolitics also constitutes medium-term support, but traders are wary of the linkage between US bond yields and the US dollar index. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

On Monday (June 9), spot gold (XAU/USD) once fell below the important mark of $3,300. Boosted by factors such as the dollar correction, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the intensification of geopolitical tensions, it rebounded to around $3,328 during the day. However, due to the cooling of the Fed's expectations for rate cuts this year, the bullish momentum is insufficient, the rebound is limited, and the overall European session remains in a range consolidation pattern.Fundamental analysis:The market is playing a game around the direction of the Fed's policy. Although the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in May was 139,000, higher than the expected value of 130,000, the revised 147,000 from the previous value did not significantly boost the dollar. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage growth rate was 3.9%, which was also slightly higher than market expectations. The overall performance of the data was solid, which weakened the possibility of a rapid rate cut this year.At the same time, the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit and the decline in U.S. Treasury yields suppressed the U.S. dollar. In addition, the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza continued, providing safe-haven support for gold, but the impact was limited and failed to push prices to break through the upper resistance.Technical aspects:From the daily chart, spot gold has been fluctuating and bottoming out since the high of $3499.83. The current Bollinger Bands are in a sideways narrowing pattern, with the upper track at $3424.13 and the lower track at $3189.53. The middle track of the Bollinger Bands is at $3306.83, and the gold price is fluctuating around the middle track.The daily K-line shows that in recent days, there have been many small positive and small negative staggered real K-lines, indicating that the forces of both long and short sides are balanced, and it is currently in a typical box oscillation range (US$3250-3380). The short-term support level is at $3250. If it is lost, it will drop to the lower track of the Bollinger Band at $3189; the upper resistance is concentrated at $3380, and it is expected to test the April high area again after breaking through.The MACD indicator shows that the DIFF line and the DEA line are running above the zero axis, and the bar chart changes alternately between red and green, and the momentum shows a continuous convergence trend. This pattern indicates that the trend direction is unclear. The current market structure is a typical oscillating market with a lack of clear trend drivers. Analysts believe that if the subsequent gold price fails to effectively break through the middle track of the Bollinger Band and continue to rise, it is necessary to be vigilant about the accelerated downward risk after the MACD crosses downward.RSI (14) remains at 51.59, which is in the neutral area and has not yet entered the overbought or oversold range. It also supports the current state of oscillating consolidation. RSI has failed to form a new high for many days, suggesting that the market's buying power is limited and the bullish momentum is insufficient. If it falls below the key level of 50, it may indicate that the short-term bearish trend will be further clarified.Market sentiment observation:Currently, the gold market sentiment is in a cautious neutral state. The US dollar index is under pressure due to the US fiscal health issues and the downward trend of US Treasury yields, but the non-agricultural data has suppressed the Fed's expectations of a rapid interest rate cut this year. Although risk aversion still exists, it has not formed enough synergy to push up gold. The market is cautiously optimistic about the prospects of high-level negotiations between important economies, while being vigilant about the sudden fluctuations that may be caused by geopolitical risks. Overall, the short-term market lacks clear driving factors, and traders are cautious and tend to operate in a range.Market outlook:Short-term outlook:Gold prices rebounded quickly after losing the key support of $3,300, indicating that there is still strong buying support below. Currently, traders focus on the Bollinger middle rail of $3,306. If gold prices stand above it and break through $3,380 with large volume, it will open up room for rebound and further test the $3,420-3,450 area. On the contrary, if it falls below $3,250, it is necessary to be vigilant about the technical retracement to the Bollinger lower rail of $3,189.Medium- and long-term outlook:Analysts believe that in the context of global geopolitical conflicts, the expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, and the uncertainty of the monetary policy shift cycle, the medium- and long-term logic of gold is still supported. However, before the Fed's expectation of maintaining a "high interest rate for longer" policy is loosened, the path of gold's rebound may be tortuous, and it needs to rely on geopolitical or US dollar fluctuations to trigger trend market conditions. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

(June 9) In the early Asian session, spot gold rose slightly and is currently trading around $3,307.62 per ounce. The large-scale riots in Los Angeles, USA, attracted some safe-haven buying to support gold prices.On the afternoon of June 8, local time, police officers from the Los Angeles Police Department in California, USA, wearing riot gear, withdrew after confronting protesters near the Edward Roybal Federal Building. At about the same time, the Los Angeles Police Department announced that the city was on tactical alert, allowing supervisors to keep police officers on duty in the event of an emergency or major incident and maintain a high level of staffing. It is reported that such alerts are intended to authorize police officers to work overtime.Gold price performance last weekIn the past week, gold prices rose and fell. Affected by factors such as geopolitical concerns, spot gold rose nearly 3% to around 3,380 on Monday (June 2) last week, and fluctuated in the following trading days. Due to poor performance of US economic data, it once rose to $3,402/ounce on Thursday (June 6), but with optimistic news about the international trade situation, gold prices began to give up gains. As non-agricultural data was stronger than market expectations, spot gold fell 1.22% last Friday to close at $3,311.86/ounce, with a weekly increase of about 0.65%.The US dollar rose 0.47% against other major currencies last Friday to 99.20, as data showed that US employment growth in May was better than expected, although the growth rate slowed down from the previous month, indicating that the Federal Reserve may wait longer before cutting interest rates. This factor is also one of the reasons for the decline in gold prices last Friday.Data from the U.S. Labor Department showed that employers added 139,000 jobs in May, fewer than the 147,000 in April, but more than the 130,000 increase predicted by a survey of economists.The dollar has been weighed down by President Trump's tariff policy and uncertainty about the prospects for negotiations with trading partners including China, the bill being considered by the U.S. Senate after the House passed the deficit spending and tax bill, and the trajectory of recent economic data, said Eugene Epstein, head of North American structures at Moneycorp.But Epstein said the market began to reverse some short positions on the dollar after stronger-than-expected economic data, including the employment data.After the data was released, financial markets bet that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates until September, and the probability of a September rate cut fell from 88% to 60%, with a total of two rate cuts in 2025, cutting bets on a possible third rate cut.In the coming week, the market will usher in major trade consultations and heavyweight U.S. CPI data, which investors need to pay close attention to.Kitco SurveyThe survey shows that Wall Street analysts are divided on the outlook for gold prices, while ordinary investors have become more optimistic as gold prices hold key support levels.Last week, 14 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and Wall Street analysts have a large analysis of the future trend of gold. 50% (7 experts) expect gold prices to rise in the next week, 43% (6) expect a fall, and 7% (1) believe that gold prices will consolidate.Meanwhile, the Kitco online poll received 256 votes, and Main Street (retail investors) is more optimistic about the future after gold prices hold their ground. 66% (169) retail traders expect gold prices to rise in the next week, 15% (39) expect a fall, and 19% (48) believe that gold prices will continue to consolidate.Summary of analyst viewsBullish camp:Rich Checkan (Asset Strategies): Momentum is good for gold and silver. Despite possible profit-taking, gold prices are expected to rise in the coming week due to a weaker dollar, a stalled peace process in Ukraine in the Middle East, the continued impact of tariffs, and awareness of the U.S. Senate bill (increasing debt, monetary expansion and inflation).Adrian Day (Adrian Day Asset Mgmt): North American investors are willing to buy gold again (although not in large quantities), and the trend is changing.Darin Newsom (Barchart): There may be setbacks in the short term, but gold remains a safe haven for central banks and long-term investors.Jim Wyckoff (Kitco): Safe-haven demand remains, and technical charts remain bullish.Bearish camp:Adam Button (Forexlive): The White House shows signs of reaching an agreement. Gold is currently a proxy for the trade war, and the announcement of the agreement may trigger a mild sell-off.Marc Chandler (Bannockburn): Slightly better employment data and expected strong U.S. CPI in May may support a stronger dollar, and gold prices may be under pressure to fall below $3,300.Neutral/cautious view:Kevin Grady (Phoenix Futures): The decline on Friday seemed like conventional profit taking. The market is mainly dominated by speculators, and there is little interest in holding positions. Investors are waiting for direction (pay attention to CPI, trade agreements, and bond yields in the next week). If CPI approaches 2%, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points this summer (energy prices are the key to inflation).Sean Lusk (Walsh Trading): The employment report is okay, easing recession concerns, boosting the dollar and bond yields, and suppressing gold prices. There are doubts about the attractiveness of the current gold price level (strong stock market). Although geopolitical risks exist, short selling on the weekend should be cautious. If key support is lost (such as $3294-3287, especially the May low of $3150), gold prices may fall sharply. Be cautious at the end of the month and the end of the quarter, and bulls need new momentum.Focus of the week: China-US trade negotiations, inflation dataAfter a week of intensive employment data, the focus this week shifted to inflation data, and key price stability indicators will be released one after another:Monday (June 9): US New York Federal Reserve 1-year inflation expectations in May. In addition, at the invitation of the British government, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will visit the UK from June 8 to 13. During this period, the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will be held with the US side. Investors need to pay close attention.In addition, US federal law enforcement officers continued to search for illegal immigrants in many places in Los Angeles County on the 7th, and had serious conflicts with local community residents for the second consecutive day. Investors also need to pay attention to the impact of market sentiment.Law enforcement officers from federal agencies such as the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) searched for illegal immigrants on the 6th, raided at least 7 locations in Los Angeles, including shopping malls and factories, and arrested 44 people. During the operation, law enforcement officers were surrounded by local community residents and continued to have physical conflicts.On June 7, local time, U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth said on social media that the protests in Los Angeles are a huge national security risk, and the U.S. Department of Defense is mobilizing the National Guard to Los Angeles to support federal law enforcement officers. If the violence continues, the active Marines will also be mobilized, "they are on high alert."On June 7, U.S. President Trump ordered the deployment of the National Guard to Los Angeles, California, to deal with the riots caused by the local search for illegal immigrants. This decision triggered a domestic backlash, and the Democratic Party called it "deliberate incitement" of tensions.On June 8, local time, it was learned that the first batch of members of the California National Guard had arrived in downtown Los Angeles before 4 a.m. on the 8th. The Los Angeles Police Department issued a statement on the same day saying that the protests that occurred during immigration enforcement on the evening of the 7th had "ended peacefully" and no accidents occurred during the period. The police will continue to remain on high alert to deal with potential riots.At noon on the 8th, local time, dozens of protesters clashed with the National Guard deployed in front of the federal law enforcement agency in downtown Los Angeles, USA. Reporters saw at the scene that the National Guard kept firing tear gas to try to disperse the protesters, but the number of protesters was increasing.On June 8, local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Real Social" that Los Angeles has been "invaded and occupied" by illegal immigrants and criminals, and violent insurgents have gathered and attacked federal agents in an attempt to hinder the government's deportation operations. Trump instructed officials such as Secretary of Homeland Security Noem, Secretary of Defense Hegseth and Attorney General Bondi to work with relevant departments and agencies to take all necessary actions to "liberate Los Angeles from the invasion of immigrants and end these immigrant riots." Trump emphasized that order will eventually be restored, illegal immigrants will be deported, and Los Angeles will regain "freedom."Wednesday (June 11): US May CPI (Consumer Price Index) - Revealing the Fed's willingness to adjust interest rates.Thursday (June 12): US May PPI (Producer Price Index) and weekly initial jobless claims.Friday (June 13): University of Michigan June consumer confidence preliminary value (the index's inflation expectations have risen significantly for two consecutive months).Pay attention to the situation in Russia and UkraineIt is worth mentioning that the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine still needs attention.According to a Reuters report on the 7th, anonymous US officials revealed that the United States believes that Russia's retaliation for Ukraine's drone attack on a Russian military airport on May 31 has not yet been truly implemented. According to information disclosed by US officials, Russia's retaliation may be a major, multi-pronged blow.Sources said that the timing of Russia's comprehensive response is unclear and is expected to be implemented within a few days. Earlier on the 6th, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that in response to Ukraine's "terrorist acts", the Russian army launched a large-scale attack on Ukrainian targets.According to a recent report by the US "Washington Post", a source revealed that the Ukrainian National Security Agency had considered sending unmanned boats hidden in containers to attack Russian ships at sea. But so far they have not launched these operations.Another person familiar with the matter speculated that Russia may use missiles and drones to launch attacks. A Reuters source in the Western diplomatic community said that Russia's retaliation may target important targets, such as government buildings.Military analyst Michael Kaufman believes that Moscow may try to strike the headquarters of the Ukrainian Security Service, which played a key role in Operation Spider Web, or the offices of other regional intelligence agencies, and may use medium-range ballistic missiles to carry out the attack. XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

https://www.tradingview.com/x/dtAigcf8/With the May U.S. employment report set to be released on Friday (June 6), global investors and economists are once again focusing on the latest developments in the U.S. labor market. This report will not only reveal the current health of the U.S. economy, but may also provide important clues for future monetary policy and economic trends. The importance of this report is even more prominent as the U.S. labor market is showing initial signs of slowing down amid increasing uncertainty in the global trade environment.Initial signs of a slowdown in the labor marketThe U.S. labor market has recently shown signs of weakness, and the latest data provides evidence of this trend. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits climbed to 247,000 last week, the highest level in seven months. The rise in this number indicates that some workers are losing their jobs and companies are becoming more cautious about hiring new employees. In addition, unofficial statistics from the private sector further show that companies' willingness to hire is gradually declining, which is closely related to the uncertainty brought about by the rapidly changing tariff policy. The new tariff policy has caused companies to worry about future profitability and market environment, thereby slowing down the pace of expansion.Rising layoffs and cautious corporate mentalityIn addition to the increase in the number of first-time unemployment claims, Challenger, Gray & Christmas' monthly survey report provides more evidence of the weakness of the labor market. The report shows that the number of layoffs in the United States reached 94,000 in May 2025, a significant increase from 64,000 in the same period last year, an increase of nearly 47% year-on-year. More worryingly, the number of layoffs in American companies has surged by 80% this year compared with the same period last year. This trend reflects that companies tend to respond to potential economic risks by cutting labor costs when facing policy uncertainties. However, as Don Rissmiller, an economist at research firm Strategas, pointed out, despite the increase in layoffs, companies have not yet taken large-scale layoffs, but have more suspended recruitment plans, which has made it significantly more difficult for workers to find new job opportunities.Differences between ADP report and official dataADP's monthly employment survey provides another perspective for the market. Data showed that only 37,000 new jobs were added in the private sector in the United States in May, the lowest increase in more than two years in the report. Although many economists believe that there is a certain deviation between the predictive power of the ADP report and official labor market data, this sluggish figure undoubtedly reinforces market concerns about the weakness of the labor market. Rees Miller said that the current data shows that there are "small cracks, not big cracks" in the labor market, suggesting that the economy has not yet fallen into a serious recession, but the growth momentum is weakening.Expectations and differences in the May employment reportAccording to a survey of analysts by the Wall Street Journal, the market generally expects the U.S. Department of Labor to release the May employment report to show 125,000 new jobs, lower than the average increase of 155,000 in the previous three months. At the same time, analysts expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, partly due to the reduction in net immigration during the Trump administration, which has limited the supply of the labor market. However, Jonathan Millar, a U.S. economist at Barclays, has a different view. He predicts that the number of new jobs in May will reach 150,000, citing the sharp increase in U.S. imports earlier this year and the accumulation of corporate inventories that have not yet been fully affected by the new tariff policy. Miller pointed out that these inventories will be gradually consumed in the future, which may put pressure on subsequent economic activity and the job market.The delicate game between the Fed's policy and economic balanceOver the past year, the U.S. labor market has experienced a process from weakening in the first half of the year to gradually stabilizing, with the unemployment rate fluctuating between 4% and 4.2%. For the Fed, the current employment situation seems to be in a state of balance, which is also an important basis for its decision to suspend interest rate cuts this year after a cumulative interest rate cut of one percentage point in the last few months of 2024. However, this balance is not stable. Barclays' Miller said that despite the difficulties faced by companies, most still tend to avoid layoffs, which provides a certain resilience to the labor market. But he also warned that as inventories are gradually digested and the impact of tariff policies gradually emerges, the labor market may face greater pressure in the future.Analysis of the impact on the US dollar and gold pricesOn the whole, the upcoming May employment report will become an important indicator for the market to judge the direction of the US economy. If the report shows that the number of new jobs is significantly lower than expected, it may further exacerbate market concerns about the slowdown of the US economy, thereby exerting downward pressure on the US dollar. Weak employment data may trigger the market to reassess the Fed's future monetary policy and may even rekindle expectations of interest rate cuts, which will weaken the attractiveness of the US dollar.For gold prices, a weak labor market is usually good for gold as a safe-haven asset. If the employment report performs poorly, coupled with the impact of global economic uncertainty and tariff policies, investors may increase their allocation to gold, pushing up gold prices. However, if the report shows that the labor market is more resilient than expected, the US dollar may be supported and gold prices may face short-term correction pressure. In general, the May employment report is not only a "big test" for the US labor market, but also an important turning point for the global financial market. Investors need to pay close attention to the results of the report and the market reaction it triggers to grasp the future trend of the US dollar and gold prices. 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Spot gold traded around $3,380 during the day, not far from the multi-week high hit on Tuesday. Currently, the market remains on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, and gold bulls continue to wait for a breakthrough under the support of fundamentals.Fundamentals 👇The latest economic data released by the United States was weak overall, providing short-term support for gold. ADP employment data showed that only 37,000 new jobs were added by private enterprises in the United States in May, a new low since March 2023; at the same time, the ISM service PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.9, marking the first time it has fallen into a contraction range since June last year. The weakening of both employment and service data has strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates in 2025.At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with both two-year and ten-year yields falling to their lowest levels since early May, reflecting recognition of the future path of monetary easing. The widening fiscal deficit and market concerns about Trump's new round of tax cuts have also put pressure on the dollar, further boosting the attractiveness of interest-free assets such as gold.In addition, global geopolitical risks are also heating up. According to Reuters, the situation in Ukraine has not eased, and the United States has vetoed the UN's proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza for the fifth time, which has kept the safe-haven demand for gold at a high level. Before Friday's non-farm payrolls report, the market was generally cautious, and the long and short forces were temporarily tug-of-war.Technical side: 👇🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀From the daily chart, gold is currently oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands, and is still in the consolidation stage of the upward trend. After breaking through $3,300, the price was temporarily blocked at $3,430, which is the previous high area and the short-term resistance corresponding to the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. Analysts believe that if the subsequent volume breaks through $3,430, it is expected to re-challenge the high of $3,499.83.In terms of MACD indicators, the fast line (DIFF) and the slow line (DEA) are above the zero axis, showing a mild golden cross, and the bar chart slightly turns red, and the momentum begins to repair, suggesting that there is a possibility of further strengthening in the short term.The relative strength index (RSI) is currently hovering around 58, and there is no overbought signal, indicating that the market sentiment is relatively neutral and bullish, leaving room for subsequent increases.From the overall structure, gold shows an obvious box-shaped oscillation pattern, with the support level referring to the $3,300 mark and the resistance level focusing on the $3,430 level; once it breaks through, the upper space is expected to open up further.Market sentiment observation 👇Current market sentiment is cautious but not pessimistic. Although the bulls lack decisive promotion, the overall position still shows a risk-averse preference. The market's expectations for the turning point of US interest rate policy are becoming increasingly clear, and the precautionary sentiment against geopolitical events is also heating up. Although traders remain on the sidelines before the release of NFP data, analysts believe that the pullback is regarded as a bargain hunting opportunity, indicating that the market consensus still tends to be bullish on gold in the medium term.Outlook for the future👇Short-term outlook: The short-term trend of gold depends on the performance of NFP data on Friday. If the non-farm data continues to be weak, it will trigger gold to break through the resistance of $3,430 and quickly test the previous high of $3,499; on the contrary, if the data is unexpectedly strong, there may be a possibility of a retracement of the support of $3,300.Medium- and long-term outlook: Against the backdrop of increasing global political uncertainty and strengthening expectations of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve, the probability of gold maintaining an upward trend is relatively high, especially under the expectation of marginal easing of US dollar liquidity. Gold's dual role as a safe-haven and asset hedging tool will continue to be favored by the market. XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD

The US ADP employment report for May was released as scheduled at 8:15, and the data was far below market expectations, triggering a violent market reaction. According to the ADP National Employment Report, the US private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, far below the market expectation of 110,000, the lowest increase since March 2023. Compared with the revised 60,000 new jobs in April, the slowdown in the labor market has further emerged. Although this data, known as the "small non-agricultural", is not directly equivalent to the non-agricultural employment report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics to be released on Friday, as a leading indicator, it has ignited the market's heated discussion on the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.Market immediate reaction: The dollar plunged and gold surgedAfter the data was released, the financial market responded quickly. The US dollar index plunged by about 20 basis points in the short term, hitting a low of 98.9783, breaking the 99 mark, and is currently at 99.0442, showing the market's sensitivity to weak employment data. The U.S. bond market was also under pressure, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield falling 0.58% to 4.421% during the day, reflecting investors' growing concerns about slowing economic growth. At the same time, spot gold rose by $6 in the short term, reaching a high of $3,354.52 per ounce, and is currently trading at $3,352.53 per ounce, highlighting the rising risk aversion sentiment.Institutional investors quickly captured the weak signal of the data. Some analysts said, "The ADP data was far below expectations, only 37,000, the lowest in more than two years. The trend is obvious, and the U.S. recruitment momentum is losing." Retail traders have more complicated emotions. Some traders pointed out: "ADP expected 112,000, but the actual number was only 111,000, slightly below expectations, which may become a trigger for the dollar to sell." In contrast, before the data was released, the market's expectations for the ADP data were relatively optimistic. The market had predicted: "If the ADP data is significantly lower than 112,000, the market may panic due to the slowdown of the employment engine." The actual data was far lower than this expectation, verifying the cautious judgment of some traders.Fed rate cut expectations: market sentiment turns to cautious optimismThe unexpected weakness of the ADP data adds a new variable to the Fed's rate cut expectations. Recently, market discussions on the Fed's monetary policy have heated up due to economic uncertainty caused by tariff rhetoric. Previously, the Fed's March meeting statement adjusted "uncertainty in the economic outlook" to "increased uncertainty", suggesting concern about the downside risks of the economy. The sluggish performance of the ADP data in May further reinforced this concern, and some institutions believe that this may prompt the Fed to reassess the pace of rate cuts.After the data was released, some institutions pointed out: "Job growth has slowed sharply, combined with the JOLTS job vacancy data (1.03 vacancies per unemployed person in April), the labor market is sending a danger signal." Retail traders believe that the timely ADP data has led to a short-term decline in the US dollar, but they are still bullish on the US dollar in the medium and long term. This view was partially fulfilled after the data was released.From a broader market sentiment perspective, the ADP data has exacerbated investors' concerns about an economic slowdown. Well-known institutions pointed out that the labor market continued to cool down under the uncertainty brought about by tariff rhetoric, and companies' willingness to recruit declined. Some companies only selectively filled vacancies and waited for the economic environment to become clear. In contrast, in the last quarter of 2024, ADP employment data showed strong resilience, such as 164,000 new jobs in December and 183,000 new jobs in January, both exceeding market expectations. The sharp decline in May data marks a shift from resilience to weakness in the labor market, which may provide the Federal Reserve with more room for interest rate cuts.Market trend impact: short-term volatility and long-term uncertainty coexistAfter the release of ADP data, the market fluctuated significantly in the short term. The rapid decline of the US dollar index reflects investors' reassessment of the economic outlook, while the rise of gold indicates an increase in safe-haven demand. The euro was boosted against the US dollar and is currently trading around 1.14, in line with the three-month target price predicted by recent institutions. It is worth noting that the total amount of speculative bets on the euro is close to US$12 billion, and traders are generally bullish on the euro, but if the exchange rate falls back to the 1.09-1.10 range, bulls may face the risk of losses. This dynamic echoes the dollar weakness caused by the ADP data, which may further push up the euro in the short term.In the U.S. stock market, the reaction after the data was released was relatively mild, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq index futures fell slightly in pre-market trading, indicating that the market's concerns about the economic slowdown have intensified. In contrast, when the ADP data for October 2024 was released (an increase of 233,000, exceeding expectations), U.S. stocks had a short-term rise. The current market sentiment is more cautious, and investors are waiting for Friday's non-farm data to confirm the true state of the labor market.From a historical perspective, the ADP data is consistent with the long-term trend of the non-farm payrolls report, but short-term fluctuations are not completely related. The ADP data in February 2025 only added 77,000, a 7-month low, and the non-farm data was also weak afterwards, triggering market concerns about a recession. The sluggish performance of the ADP data this time may indicate that the non-farm data on Friday will also be lower than the expected 125,000, which will further increase market volatility.Future trend outlook: Non-farm data is the key, and expectations of interest rate cuts may dominate the marketLooking ahead, Friday's non-farm payrolls will become the focus of the market. Institutions generally expect 130,000 new non-farm payrolls in May and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%. If the non-farm data also falls short of expectations, expectations of a Fed rate cut may further increase, the US dollar index may continue to be under pressure, and safe-haven assets such as gold are expected to continue their gains. On the contrary, if the non-farm data exceeds expectations, the market may reassess the resilience of the labor market, and the US dollar may rebound.Retail investor sentiment shows that traders have great differences in their views on short-term market trends. Some traders believe that "this week's initial jobless claims and non-farm data will determine the direction of the market, and ADP is just a prelude." Institutions are more concerned about long-term trends. Well-known institutions analyzed that "the slowdown in the labor market may prompt the Fed to release a clearer signal of a rate cut in its interest rate decision on June 19." Combined with historical data, after the weak ADP data in August 2024, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September rose to 45%, driving a short-term rebound in US stocks. In the current market environment, a similar scenario may repeat itself.Overall, the unexpected weakness of the ADP employment data in May sounded the alarm for the market. The signal of a slowing labor market and the economic uncertainty caused by tariff rhetoric have made investors more sensitive to the expectations of the Fed's policies. In the short term, the US dollar may continue to be under pressure, while assets such as gold and the euro are expected to benefit. In the long term, continued weakness in the labor market may force the Fed to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts, but the results of Friday's non-farm data will be crucial. Traders need to pay close attention to subsequent data and the Fed's statements to capture opportunities in the market with increased volatility. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

Gold prices (XAU/USD) retreated slightly during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, mainly due to the dollar's modest rebound from a six-week low and the recovery in risk sentiment. The overnight rise in risk assets weakened safe-haven demand, prompting some gold bulls to take profits.However, the market remains vigilant about the global situation. The continued expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the escalation of trade tensions between Asian powers and the United States, and the failure of the second round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have kept the market's risk aversion supportive of gold.Last weekend, US President Trump accused Asian powers of violating the preliminary tariff agreement and announced an increase in steel import tariffs from 25% to 50%. The US government also asked countries to submit their best trade proposals by July 8, showing that its position on tariffs is getting tougher.In addition, the Fed's policy expectations also provide important support for gold prices. Despite the short-term rebound in the US dollar, the market still expects the Fed to make at least two 25 basis point interest rate cuts in 2025. Comments from several Fed officials this week indicate that if the trend of inflation retreat continues and policy uncertainty is resolved, the timing of interest rate cuts may be brought forward.Fed Governor Waller said that even if the new tariffs may temporarily push up price pressure, there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts this year; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee pointed out that there is room for interest rates to fall in the next 12-18 months.After breaking through the $3324-3326 area, gold prices continued to rise and broke through the key resistance area of ​​$3355. At present, this position has turned into support. If the short-term adjustment does not fall below this area, it will be regarded as a confirmation process of stepping back. The lower support is at $3324 and $3300 respectively. After breaking through, it may test the $3286-3285 level.In terms of upper resistance, if the gold price breaks through the $3400 integer mark, it will open up space for upward movement, with the target looking at the $3430-3432 area. If the momentum continues, it is expected to challenge the historical high set in April again and hit the important psychological level of $3500.Editor's opinion:The current market is in a tug-of-war between the short-term recovery of the US dollar and the medium- and long-term safe-haven demand, but multiple fundamental factors are still bullish for gold, especially the rising geopolitical risks and trade concerns, the Fed's dovish expectations, and the background of US fiscal instability.Gold prices are expected to resume their upward trend after falling back to support near $3,355. Pay attention to the guidance of the non-agricultural data to be released on Friday on the US dollar and gold. XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

Spot gold continued its intraday gains, hitting a one-week high near $3,359 in the European session. Concerns about the deteriorating fiscal situation in the United States, coupled with the market's general expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in 2025, have caused the dollar to fall back to near the monthly low; this trend has provided important support for gold.Fundamental analysisU.S. economic data showed that inflationary pressures continued to ease. Data released by the United States last Friday showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in April increased by 2.1% year-on-year, hitting a new low since February 2021. The core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.5% year-on-year, down from 2.7% in March. This data further strengthened the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that even if the Trump administration's tariff policy may temporarily push up price pressures, a rate cut later this year is still possible. Traders continue to bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September and expect another rate cut in December. Several FOMC members will speak this week, including an appearance by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell later on Monday, which will provide important clues about the outlook for monetary policy.According to Reuters, geopolitical risks continue to heat up. Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on military airports in five Russian regions on the eve of the second round of direct peace talks. Meanwhile, Israel strongly denied involvement in the incident that killed at least 30 Palestinians and accused Hamas of firing on hungry civilians gathered to receive humanitarian aid. These geopolitical tensions provided additional support for safe-haven asset gold.Technical:From the daily chart, spot gold successfully broke through the key resistance area of ​​$3325-3326, triggering a technical buying influx. The price is running below the upper Bollinger Band at $3409.08, the middle track at $3295.04 provides dynamic support, and the lower track at $3181.00 constitutes far-end support.The important resistance above is at the integer level of $3,400 and the previous high of $3,430, and the support below is $3,300 and $3,250 respectively.The MACD indicator shows that the DEA line is 23.11 and the DIF line is 22.85. The narrowing distance between the two lines indicates that an upward crossover signal may appear.In terms of the RSI indicator, the 14-day RSI is 56.63, which is in a strong position in the neutral area, suggesting that there is still room for growth. The RSI indicator shows a gradual upward trend, forming a positive correlation with the price trend, confirming the effectiveness of the current upward trend.Market sentiment observationThe current market sentiment is clearly biased towards risk aversion. The general pressure on the equity market reflects the decline in risk appetite, and funds flow to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. The US dollar index fell back to near the monthly low, providing additional support for gold prices. The market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy shift are constantly heating up. The interest rate cut in September is almost a foregone conclusion, and expectations of another interest rate cut in December are also increasing.Traders are watching the intensive speeches of Fed officials this week, especially Powell's speech, for more clues on the direction of monetary policy. At the same time, important economic data will be released at the beginning of the month, including the ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, which will provide the market with the latest assessment of the health of the US economy. Geopolitical uncertainty continues, and the situation in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East provide continued safe-haven demand support for gold.OutlookShort-term outlook: With technical breakthroughs and positive fundamentals, gold is expected to test the $3,400 round mark in the short term. If it can effectively break through this position, it will open up further room for growth to the previous high of $3,430. However, traders are wary of profit-taking pressure, and the $3,325-3,330 area has become an important support.Long-term outlook: The Fed's expectations of a rate cut cycle, continued geopolitical risks, and concerns about the US fiscal situation will continue to support the medium- and long-term trend of gold. However, if US economic data is stronger than expected or the Fed's stance turns hawkish, it may limit gold's gains. Traders are concerned about the effectiveness of the medium-term support of $3,250, and the loss of this position may change the current upward pattern. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD

1. Core drivers of fundamentalsGeopolitical risks escalateA number of "black swan" events occurred on the eve of the second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine: the collapse of bridges in two Russian states, the destruction of 41 Russian strategic bombers by Ukraine, and the resignation of the Ukrainian Army Commander, exacerbating the uncertainty of the situation.Tensions in the Middle East continue: Iran claims to be ready to defend its airspace at any time, and the Houthi armed forces use hypersonic missiles to attack Israeli airports.Trade policies repeatedly disturb the marketTrump plans to increase steel tariffs from 25% to 50%, and the EU has announced that it will take countermeasures, exacerbating global trade concerns.The U.S. Federal Court of Appeals has suspended the ban on Trump's tariffs, and policy uncertainty supports safe-haven demand.Federal Reserve policy and economic data gameThe U.S. PCE inflation data for April was weak (2.1% year-on-year), and the market bet that the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 87%, but Fed officials emphasized that more data is needed to assess the risk of stagflation.The U.S. dollar index fell to 99.33 (a two-week low) in early trading, providing short-term pricing support for gold.Long-term support factorsGlobal central banks continue to buy gold: the purchase volume in 2024 will exceed 1,000 tons, and China's gold imports in April hit an 11-month high.Citi raised its 0-3 month target price to US$3,500, and Minsheng Securities is optimistic about the upward movement of the gold price center.2. Key technical pointsSupport level:Short-term: 3280-3286 (4-hour Bollinger band middle track + gap).Strong support: 3260-3270 (weekly trend line, break down to 3245).Resistance level:Key pressure: 3325-3334 (previous high + daily Bollinger upper track).Breakthrough target: 3350-3365 (open the channel to 3400).Technical signal: daily MACD bottom divergence, 4-hour RSI oversold repair, but there is double top suppression above 3330.3. Optimal trading strategyShort-term operation (intraday)Long strategy (pullback and long):Entry conditions: Rebound to 3286-3292 range and stabilize, and the US dollar index does not break through 99.60.Target: 3310→3325→3334, stop loss: below 3280.Short strategy (rebound and high):Entry conditions: Rebound to 3326-3334 range and encounter resistance, or the US dollar index stabilizes at 99.80.Target: 3300→3286, stop loss: above 3340.Mid-term layout (1-2 weeks)Bullish logic: Central bank gold purchases + stagflation risk + normalization of geopolitical conflicts support long-term upward movement.Entry time: If the 3250-3270 area is not broken, build long orders in batches, stop loss 3230, target 3350-3400.IV. Risk Warning and Event ResponseKey Events:Results of the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks (Istanbul talks): If the talks break down, risk aversion will surge, and the gold price may hit 3350; if the talks go smoothly, the gold price will be suppressed.10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI: If it is lower than 48 (previous value 48.7), it will strengthen the expectation of economic slowdown and benefit gold.Risk Control Points:Position Control: Short-term ≤2% of total funds, medium-term ≤5%; margin ratio of high leverage accounts <10%.Strict stop loss: reduce positions before data is released to avoid fluctuations caused by ISM data.Operation Principle: Light position trading, give priority to the breakthrough direction of the 3286-3334 range, and the geopolitical situation dominates intraday fluctuations. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD