Technical analysis by David_financial_analyst about Symbol PAXG on 6/2/2025

The financial market is welcoming a thrilling week! The first week of June is not only a traditional data "super week", but also a multi-national central bank monetary policy game, a major test of the US job market, and Trump's tariff policy surprise attack. This article will take you to deeply analyze every key moment that may cause a huge market shock, and provide investors with a comprehensive trading guide.Geopolitical situationAccording to the news released by the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs on June 1, local time, the second round of talks between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations is scheduled to be held at 13:00 local time on June 2 (Monday) at the Cirali Palace in Istanbul.However, there are still big differences between the two sides on how to end the war, and the war is escalating. Investors need to pay close attention.ECB decision: Is the interest rate cut a foregone conclusion?Global attention will also focus on the ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday. The current market is betting with almost 99.46% certainty that the central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2%, which will be an important measure for the eurozone to cope with economic weakness. But more critical than the interest rate cut itself is the policy guidance given by President Lagarde at the press conference. Investors need to pay special attention to its statement on the future interest rate path. Any hint of "wait and see" or "further easing" will cause sharp fluctuations in the euro.Before the resolution, the eurozone will also release a series of important economic indicators. Tuesday's initial inflation and unemployment data will set the tone for the market first, followed by the final service PMI, PPI, retail sales and other data. Germany, as the economic engine of the eurozone, will also release final PMI, trade account and industrial production data, which will become an important basis for assessing the health of the European economy.US data feast: non-agricultural leads the all-star lineupThe United States across the Atlantic will stage a "serial cannon" of data. Monday's ISM manufacturing index will be the first to fire, followed by Tuesday's JOLTS job vacancies and ADP "small non-agricultural" data to warm up the job market. Wednesday's ISM non-manufacturing index, the Federal Reserve Beige Book and Thursday's initial jobless claims will be on stage, and finally on Friday, the finale will usher in the May non-agricultural employment report.The market generally expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 130,000, the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage to increase by 0.3% month-on-month. But what is more noteworthy is that 11 Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Powell, will speak intensively. These speeches may reveal the Fed's new policy ideas in the context of repeated inflation, laying the groundwork for the June interest rate meeting.Trump tariff bomb: global trade is in turmoil againThe market will usher in an uncertain factor on Wednesday - US President Trump plans to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%. This suddenly announced trade protection measure may trigger a new round of turmoil in the global supply chain, especially for major metal exporting economies such as Canada and the European Union. Traders need to be wary of abnormal fluctuations in related currency pairs and chain reactions in commodity markets.Bank of Canada: Behind the inactionCompared with the European Central Bank's active actions, the Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its 5% benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday. Although the country's core inflation unexpectedly rebounded in April, 76% of market expectations show that policymakers are more inclined to wait and see. Investors should pay close attention to the assessment of inflation trends in the policy statement. Any statement that "high interest rates need to be maintained for a longer period of time" may boost the Canadian dollar.Asia-Pacific market: Chinese data in focusIn the Asia-Pacific region, China's Caixin manufacturing and service PMIs will become key indicators to measure the recovery progress of the world's second-largest economy. Australia will release heavy data such as first-quarter GDP and current account, and the minutes of the central bank meeting may also reveal policy clues. Japan is relatively calm, but Friday's household spending data is still worth paying attention to. The speeches of the central bank governor and deputy governor may hint at the possibility of monetary policy fine-tuning.UK market: relatively flatThe UK's economic calendar this week is relatively light, with only minor data such as the construction industry PMI. But the "fireside chat" of monetary policy committee member Mann may reveal the central bank's latest judgment on the stubbornness of inflation.Conclusion: Fasten your seat belts to welcome volatilityThis week's financial market is like a roller coaster. From central bank decisions to heavy data, from trade frictions to political risks, every trading day may cause violent market fluctuations. Investors are advised to strictly control their positions and focus on the sustainability of the ECB's policy shift, the resilience of the US job market, and the evolution of sudden trade conflicts. In this eventful week, flexibility and vigilance will be the key to success.