Technical analysis by David_financial_analyst about Symbol PAXG on 6/2/2025

1. Core drivers of fundamentalsGeopolitical risks escalateA number of "black swan" events occurred on the eve of the second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine: the collapse of bridges in two Russian states, the destruction of 41 Russian strategic bombers by Ukraine, and the resignation of the Ukrainian Army Commander, exacerbating the uncertainty of the situation.Tensions in the Middle East continue: Iran claims to be ready to defend its airspace at any time, and the Houthi armed forces use hypersonic missiles to attack Israeli airports.Trade policies repeatedly disturb the marketTrump plans to increase steel tariffs from 25% to 50%, and the EU has announced that it will take countermeasures, exacerbating global trade concerns.The U.S. Federal Court of Appeals has suspended the ban on Trump's tariffs, and policy uncertainty supports safe-haven demand.Federal Reserve policy and economic data gameThe U.S. PCE inflation data for April was weak (2.1% year-on-year), and the market bet that the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 87%, but Fed officials emphasized that more data is needed to assess the risk of stagflation.The U.S. dollar index fell to 99.33 (a two-week low) in early trading, providing short-term pricing support for gold.Long-term support factorsGlobal central banks continue to buy gold: the purchase volume in 2024 will exceed 1,000 tons, and China's gold imports in April hit an 11-month high.Citi raised its 0-3 month target price to US$3,500, and Minsheng Securities is optimistic about the upward movement of the gold price center.2. Key technical pointsSupport level:Short-term: 3280-3286 (4-hour Bollinger band middle track + gap).Strong support: 3260-3270 (weekly trend line, break down to 3245).Resistance level:Key pressure: 3325-3334 (previous high + daily Bollinger upper track).Breakthrough target: 3350-3365 (open the channel to 3400).Technical signal: daily MACD bottom divergence, 4-hour RSI oversold repair, but there is double top suppression above 3330.3. Optimal trading strategyShort-term operation (intraday)Long strategy (pullback and long):Entry conditions: Rebound to 3286-3292 range and stabilize, and the US dollar index does not break through 99.60.Target: 3310→3325→3334, stop loss: below 3280.Short strategy (rebound and high):Entry conditions: Rebound to 3326-3334 range and encounter resistance, or the US dollar index stabilizes at 99.80.Target: 3300→3286, stop loss: above 3340.Mid-term layout (1-2 weeks)Bullish logic: Central bank gold purchases + stagflation risk + normalization of geopolitical conflicts support long-term upward movement.Entry time: If the 3250-3270 area is not broken, build long orders in batches, stop loss 3230, target 3350-3400.IV. Risk Warning and Event ResponseKey Events:Results of the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks (Istanbul talks): If the talks break down, risk aversion will surge, and the gold price may hit 3350; if the talks go smoothly, the gold price will be suppressed.10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI: If it is lower than 48 (previous value 48.7), it will strengthen the expectation of economic slowdown and benefit gold.Risk Control Points:Position Control: Short-term ≤2% of total funds, medium-term ≤5%; margin ratio of high leverage accounts <10%.Strict stop loss: reduce positions before data is released to avoid fluctuations caused by ISM data.Operation Principle: Light position trading, give priority to the breakthrough direction of the 3286-3334 range, and the geopolitical situation dominates intraday fluctuations. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD