NVDAX

The Fed Funds Rate and Inflation: Understanding the Fed's Stance and Investment Implications The Federal Reserve's key interest rate and the official inflation rate are two critical benchmarks for financial markets. Their interplay determines whether monetary policy is accommodative or restrictive and provides clues about its future direction. To assess true financial conditions, analysts focus not on nominal figures but on the difference between them: the real interest rate. Current Key Figures: Nominal Fed Funds Rate: Following the December 2025 cut, the target range is 3.50–3.75%. Official Inflation (PCE): The Fed's primary gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is rising at approximately 2.8% year-on-year. The more commonly cited Consumer Price Index (CPI) is slightly higher, at around 3.0%. Calculating the Real Interest Rate: The formula is: Real Interest Rate = Nominal Fed Funds Rate – Inflation. Using the upper bound of the Fed's rate and the PCE index: 3.75% – 2.8% = 0.95%. A positive real rate indicates that the cost of borrowing exceeds the pace of inflation. This acts as a brake on the economy, intended to cool demand and steer inflation back toward the Fed's 2% target. Where is the "Neutral" Rate? The neutral rate (often denoted as r* or "r-star") is the theoretical level of the real interest rate at which monetary policy is neither stimulating nor restricting the economy, allowing for stable growth at full capacity. The Fed's consensus estimates the long-term neutral real rate at approximately 1%. This implies that to achieve a neutral stance, the nominal policy rate should be about 1% above the inflation target (2%), or roughly 3%. Analysis of the Current Stance: The current real rate of ~0.95% is very close to the estimated neutral rate of ~1%. This proximity explains why the Fed recently communicated that its policy stance is nearing neutral. This assessment is reflected in the regulator's projections, which, as of early 2026, signal a more cautious approach, potentially involving only a single rate cut throughout the year. The real interest rate directly influences borrowing costs for businesses and households, thereby shaping the pace of economic growth and asset valuations. Investment Considerations: Policy Shifts: While the current Fed leadership has signaled a pause, a future shift in leadership or a deterioration in economic data could renew a rate-cutting cycle. This would be a tailwind for interest-rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities. Global Divergence: In recent years, while the US maintained relatively high rates, other major central banks were more aggressive in cutting. Since most "Magnificent Seven" companies (excluding Amazon and Microsoft) derive over half their revenue from international markets, this global liquidity provided a significant boost to their earnings, contributing to their historical outperformance. Domestic vs. International Exposure: Small-cap stocks (e.g., Russell 2000 index) are typically focused on the domestic US market. Their performance is therefore more directly tied to US financial conditions. As the real rate moves from restrictive levels toward neutral or accommodative territory, it alleviates pressure on these smaller, often more indebted companies, making it easier for them to service debt and invest. Conclusion: Monitoring the gap between the real Fed Funds rate and the estimated neutral rate provides a powerful framework for gauging monetary policy. For investors, a move toward the "neutral zone" suggests a more favorable environment for domestic-focused companies and small-caps, as lower real rates reduce the burden of net debt and support domestic expansion.

NVDA is no longer trending cleanly — it’s compressing, and that’s exactly why this area matters. On the 15-minute chart, price is holding inside a rising channel while momentum has clearly slowed. We already saw a CHoCH printed earlier, signaling that upside momentum weakened. Since then, NVDA has been grinding sideways, respecting structure rather than impulsively selling. This is not random chop — it’s controlled balance. Key technical observations: * Price is holding above the recent demand base (~186–187) after the CHoCH * The lower channel trendline continues to act as dynamic support * Upside attempts are stalling near 189–191, showing hesitation rather than strength * This structure favors reaction first, continuation later As long as NVDA stays inside this range, patience matters more than prediction. Technical Levels to Watch * Bullish trigger: Clean reclaim and hold above 191.5 * Bearish trigger: Loss of 186 with acceptance below the channel * Neutral zone: 187–190 (expect chop and fake moves) GEX & Options Positioning (Context, Not Prediction) GEX confirms why price is behaving this way. * Strong CALL resistance sits above ~192–193 → dealers likely suppress upside acceleration * PUT support is concentrated near ~182–185, aligning with the technical demand zone * This creates a pinning effect, keeping NVDA compressed intraday * Until price breaks away from these zones, mean-reversion dominates In simple terms:
👉 Options flow is reinforcing the range, not fighting it. Trade Scenarios (Framework, Not Signals) CALL idea:
Only valid after a strong break and hold above 191.5–192, targeting the next gamma pocket higher. No chase inside the range. PUT idea:
Only valid after a clean breakdown below 186, opening downside toward 182–180 where PUT support thins. Inside the range? Do nothing. Bottom line: This is the kind of setup that rewards discipline, not aggression.
NVDA isn’t giving easy money right now — it’s waiting for commitment. When price and GEX align, the move will be obvious. Until then, let the chart come to you. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage risk and trade your own plan.

How to become successful in forex and stock trading: 1.Master fundamentals and technical analysis. 2,Build and follow a solid trading plan. 3.Apply strict risk management (1–2% rule). 4.Stay disciplined—control fear and greed. 5.Record and analyze every trade. 6.Focus on high-quality setups only. 7.Diversify across assets and markets. 8.Keep evolving—study, adapt, and grow daily.

🔶 Downside structure Looking at NVDA on the daily chart, one level clearly stands out on the downside: 170 PUT support , where price has bounced multiple times in the past. This level has been well defended by put positioning, creating a solid structural floor. 🔴 🔶 Consolidation behavior Over the past weeks, price spent a considerable amount of time sitting on the 50-day moving average , repeatedly testing it from below but failing to break through decisively. That dynamic now appears to be changing. NVDA is starting to push higher, suggesting a potential breakout from this consolidation range. 🟢 🔶 Upside reference level If this breakout holds, the next key level to watch is 200 Call Resistance . This is currently the largest Call Resistance on the board, and it also aligns with an 8/8 MM level , adding technical confluence to the zone. 🟢 🔶 Options sentiment context What’s important here is sentiment: 🔵 Call Pricing Skew is currently minimal, meaning the options market is not aggressively positioned for upside yet. This keeps the move cleaner and reduces the risk of an overcrowded bullish trade. In other words, this is not a euphoric call-heavy environment, which often allows price to travel further if momentum builds. 🔶 Scenario 🟢 If NVDA successfully breaks out of this consolidation and holds above the 50-day MA , a move toward the 200 Call Resistance becomes a very realistic upside target. 🔶 Key levels 🔴 PUT Support: 170 🔵 Trigger: Sustained breakout above the 50-day MA 🟢 Upside Target: 200 Call Resistance (8/8 MM) Not financial advice — just a clean structure driven by price, positioning, and option market context.

tradingview.com/chart/FvPElJ7r/ This is what we planned: A bullish entry above 186.00 with a possible exit in the 192.00 area. hope you also took this trade.Note: I also have a YouTube channel: robertotraderwithoutstress If you'd like, you can subscribe.

Wow. Ichimoku shows us a classic "bad cross" from the Kijun and Tenkan lines. With a high degree of probability, the asset is awaiting a strong correction.

NVDA is stuck in a clean daily rectangle after a strong run into early November, with price repeatedly rotating between $178 support and $198 resistance. With EMA 20/60/120 now tightly clustered and volatility compressing, the market is effectively coiling—waiting for a decisive catalyst rather than offering easy trend follow-through inside the range. The most actionable plan is still the upside resolution: a decisive daily close above $198 (ideally supported by a clear volume expansion) would signal the range has broken and the prior trend is attempting to resume. If that breakout holds, the next magnet is the prior high area near $210, with the first risk-managed “line in the sand” being a loss back below the breakout zone. If price fails to reclaim the top of the box and instead breaks down, the structure flips. A daily close below $178 would invalidate the rectangle and shift focus to a deeper correction, with $160 as the next meaningful downside objective. This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations. Thought of the Day 💡 Compressing volatility doesn’t predict direction—but it often predicts a larger move once the market chooses. ------------------------- Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts!

In the context of the current bullish trend, I prefer to hold off on making an entry until there is a clear indication that the trend will persist. It's important to note that this strategy reflects my individual viewpoint and should not be considered as investment advice. Good luck with your trading decision! Remember to stay informed and analyze market conditions thoroughly before making any moves. Understanding the broader macroeconomic factors and keeping an eye on key indicators can provide valuable insights. Stay disciplined, trust your strategy, and always be prepared to adapt as the market evolves. Happy trading!

tradingview.com/chart/FvPElJ7r/ Our strategy is as follows: we will enter a long position above 186.00 with a possible exit in the 192.00 resistance zone. Once it surpasses 192.00, if it does, it could reach 194.00, encountering resistance at that price and also at 198.00. Keep an eye on these levels. A short entry could be considered below 184.00/182.00 with a significant downward potential.

This is my prediction for NVIDIA in the coming days, strike price was 192.5 ITM when I entered. Lets see how it goes!