TanukiTrade

🔶 Downside structure Looking at NVDA on the daily chart, one level clearly stands out on the downside: 170 PUT support , where price has bounced multiple times in the past. This level has been well defended by put positioning, creating a solid structural floor. 🔴 🔶 Consolidation behavior Over the past weeks, price spent a considerable amount of time sitting on the 50-day moving average , repeatedly testing it from below but failing to break through decisively. That dynamic now appears to be changing. NVDA is starting to push higher, suggesting a potential breakout from this consolidation range. 🟢 🔶 Upside reference level If this breakout holds, the next key level to watch is 200 Call Resistance . This is currently the largest Call Resistance on the board, and it also aligns with an 8/8 MM level , adding technical confluence to the zone. 🟢 🔶 Options sentiment context What’s important here is sentiment: 🔵 Call Pricing Skew is currently minimal, meaning the options market is not aggressively positioned for upside yet. This keeps the move cleaner and reduces the risk of an overcrowded bullish trade. In other words, this is not a euphoric call-heavy environment, which often allows price to travel further if momentum builds. 🔶 Scenario 🟢 If NVDA successfully breaks out of this consolidation and holds above the 50-day MA , a move toward the 200 Call Resistance becomes a very realistic upside target. 🔶 Key levels 🔴 PUT Support: 170 🔵 Trigger: Sustained breakout above the 50-day MA 🟢 Upside Target: 200 Call Resistance (8/8 MM) Not financial advice — just a clean structure driven by price, positioning, and option market context.

META – Holding Above HVL, 50 DMA Reclaim in Progress, Upside Call Resistance at 700 META is currently trading below the 200-day moving average , but recent price action suggests a potential structural improvement rather than continued weakness. From an options perspective, the broader structure remains Positive GEX , indicating that dealer positioning is still supportive on pullbacks. At the same time, IV remains low , which typically favors range expansion and directional follow-through once key technical levels are reclaimed. On the daily chart, price is now starting to reclaim the 50-day moving average , a level that previously acted as dynamic resistance. Importantly, META is also holding above the High Volatility Level (HVL) , which keeps the short-term regime constructive rather than defensive. Volatility conditions remain favorable: Call Pricing Skew is elevated (~31.6%), showing persistent call demand IV remains controlled, allowing price to move without immediate volatility compression pressure Looking forward, the most important upside call resistance is the 700 level, which represents: Highest core call resistance on the Feb 20 (Optimal Monthly) expiration A major gap fill from the prior breakdown A clear technical resistance zone visible on the daily chart This confluence makes 700 a logical upside target if price can hold above HVL and fully reclaim the 50 DMA. Key structure to watch: 200 DMA – higher timeframe resistance overhead 50 DMA – short-term trend reclaim in progress HVL – holding above keeps structure constructive 700 – primary upside target (gap fill + core call resistance) As long as price holds above HVL with supportive GEX structure, rotational upside toward 700 remains the higher-probability path .200 MA stilll holds....waiting for the momentum

February 20 Expiration – GEX & Options Structure Looking at the February 20 expiration, the options and GEX structure suggests that price is currently sitting at a critical decision zone . Put side The chart shows a clear put support level around 310 . Price has briefly traded through this level, but there has been no strong downside continuation . This keeps the scenario alive that 310 can still act as put support into this expiration. Call side / Decision point The next core resistance is located around 320 . This level represents a bullish decision zone . A clean break and acceptance above 320 could quickly shift dealer positioning. Such a move would open the door for a potential gamma squeeze to the upside. Technical context Since summer, this is already the third similar bull flag structure on the daily chart. The previous two structures resolved to the upside. The current pattern has not yet confirmed a breakout. This makes the 320 level especially important for technical confirmation. Upside scenario If price accepts above 320 , the next logical magnet becomes the next core resistance. Based on daily structure and call wall positioning, this sits around 350 . Volatility & Skew Core pricing skew is currently around +25% , favoring calls. Implied volatility has been compressing for several sessions . This supports the idea that a directional expansion could follow once price resolves this range. Summary 310 = key put support 320 = bullish decision point Acceptance above 320 increases the probability of gamma-driven upside toward higher call resistance levels

🧠 SPX Weekly Outlook — Gamma Breakout + Short Week Setup The bulls finally broke through after weeks of painful grinding — and they did so with force. 📈 Thursday & Friday brought a textbook gamma squeeze as SPX sliced through the long-standing 6100 call wall , triggering sharp upside acceleration. We are now firmly in positive Net GEX territory. 🔺 Entire GEX structure has shifted higher. 🎯 New squeeze zone at 6225 , with major call resistance near 6200 . 🔍 What Just Happened? 📊 The 6060–6120 zone acted as a tough resistance range for weeks — until last week’s breakout. 💥 Put skew collapsed , suggesting downside hedges are being unwound. 📉 VIX and IV keep dropping , confirming a shift toward lower-volatility environment . 🧲 Strong Net GEX across expiries created sustained upward dealer pressure → we’re in long gamma mode . ✅ Bullish Bias — But Stay Tactical We're in a bullish gamma regime , so dips are likely to be bought. Key pullback zone to watch: 6125–6060 . 🛠️ Strategy Ideas: • Wait for a 6060–6125 retest before re-entering longs • Use shorter-DTE bull put spreads or 0DTE gamma scalps above 6130+ • Scale out or trim risk near 6200–6225 ⚠️ Risks to Watch We’re overextended short-term. 🚨 Losing 6130–6125 could spark a quick flush to 6050 . Bearish signals to monitor: • IV spike or renewed put buying • Loss of 6100 = no-man’s land without confirmation • Consider short-term debit put spreads if breakdown confirms 🗓️ Short Trading Week Note 🇺🇸 U.S. markets closed Friday, July 5 for Independence Day. This compresses flows into 4 sessions. Expect: 📌 Early week dealer hedging 📌 Possible positioning unwind on Thursday 💡 Weekly Trade Idea — Structure in Place 💼 Setup: • Put Butterfly below spot • 3x Call Diagonal Spreads above spot (5pt wide) • Slight net negative delta , 11 DTE 🎯 Why it works: • Leverages IV backwardation • Profits from time decay • Favors a stable or modestly bullish week • Takes advantage of horizontal skew (July 11 vs July 14) 💰 Profit Target: 10–20% return on ~$1,730 risk. Take profits before time decay kills the center valley — don’t overstay. 🏃💨 📌 Final Thoughts: The 6100 breakout was technically & gamma-structurally significant , but big moves often retest before continuing. Let price breathe. Stay aligned with gamma exposure profile. 🔄We've reached the maximum gamma level for this week, wow, what a buying power here :) Happy July 4th everyone!Calendar + butterfly combo trade closed in 15% profit - nice move I'm out ;)

📊 Weekly GEX Map (SPX) This week’s GEX profile looks nearly identical to last week: Positive bias above 6020 up to 6100 But a sticky chop zone remains from 5975 to 6020 Below 5950? That’s where things get interesting… ⚠️ What Happens If 5950 Fails? In that case - welcome to negative gamma territory: Delta becomes unstable → fast, erratic moves Gamma loses influence → hedging effectiveness drops Dealer hedging lags → market makers chase, not lead Vega + theta distort readings → charm decay accelerates Result: GEX zones lose clarity. Pinning breaks down. Reactions become nonlinear and emotional. If we drop below 5950, we might see acceleration instead of stabilization — despite the positive GEX profile. 💡 Trade Idea of the Week – With Caution If not for Wednesday's macro risk (Fed rate decision), I'd suggest a bullish diagonal spread toward 6100–6150: Limited downside Defined risk Covers the full squeeze zone But with FOMC looming, I'd only hold this trade until Thursday and close once the debit doubles or earlier. 🧨 Macro + Geo Risks Fed is priced for “no move” → any surprise = volatility spike Rising tensions with Iran → oil and futures could react violently Recommendation : Avoid OIL this week, especially futures and naked strategies 🛡️ Prefer Downside Protection? If you expect weakness on SPX weekly: Consider a put debit spread with the short leg at 5950, where the second strongest Put Support sits. This type of structure can offer up to 6:1 reward-to-risk, making it one of the most efficient bearish hedges for this week. If you enjoyed the above breakdown, feel free to check out my previous weekly analyses or explore my tools as well. Until next time – Trade what you see, not what you hope, – Greg @ TanukiTradeJust like last week: - 6050 tested - 6050 failed - now we are going to the transition zone and to the negative GEX territory📢 06/18 FOMC Interest Rate & 0DTE GEX Update 📊 Unusually Wide 0DTE GEX Range The current SPX 0DTE GEX range is extremely wide — I honestly can’t recall the last time I saw this 2 hours before expiry. Market participants are heavily — and quite evenly — hedged on both sides: 🟢 Call side (bullish camp) is positioned around the 6035–6040 range, which is ~12–15 OTM delta from the current spot price. 🔴 Put side (bearish targets) are concentrated around 5910–5915, a 6–7 OTM delta — which would seem extreme on a regular day, but is completely normal on a high-impact macro day like today. --- 🧭 What the Market Is Signaling This tells me that the market is anticipating a significant directional move in SPX after the FOMC announcement, from the current 5995–6000 zone — regardless of direction. We’ve been stuck in this “limbo” zone for nearly 2 weeks now, and dealers are clearly bracing for a break. The hedged zone today is 5910–6040. If we stay within this zone, we might just see a directional drift — no major gamma squeeze. But if we break outside this range post-FED and a gamma squeeze triggers (either positive or negative), it could seriously destabilize the market — especially to the downside, where emotional panic could escalate fast.Quad Witching: We've closed right at this week's PUT support (5970–5975)[06/30] Weekly Update:

Last week’s outlook played out quite well — as anticipated, SPX hit the 6000 level, closing exactly there on Friday. This was the realistic target we highlighted in last week's idea. 🔭 SPX: The Bigger Outlook It's difficult to say whether the rising SPX trend will continue. We're still in the "90-day agreement period" set by the administration, and so far, the market has shown resilience, avoiding deeper pullbacks like the one we saw in April. With VIX hovering around 17–18, we’ve reached a zone where further SPX upside would require volatility. For the index to continue rising meaningfully, it needs to reverse the current bearish macro environment, and that can only happen with strong buying momentum — not a slow grind. The parallel downward channel drawn a few weeks ago is still technically valid. Even a short 100-point squeeze would fit within this structure before a larger move down unfolds. GEX levels give us useful clues heading into Friday. We're currently in a net positive GEX zone across all expirations, giving bulls a structural advantage, just like last week. As of Monday’s premarket, SPX spot is at 6009.The Gamma Flip zone is between 5975–5990, with a High Volume Level (HVL) at 5985. 🔍 Let’s zoom in with our GEX levels — this gives us a deeper view than our GEX Profile indicator for TradingView alone. 🐂 🟢 If SPX moves higher, the following are logical profit-taking zones: 6050 (Delta ≈ 33) 6075 (Delta ≈ 25) 6100 (Delta ≈ 17) 🎯 Targeting above 6100 currently feels irrational — for instance, the next major gamma squeeze zone is at 6150, but that corresponds to a delta 6 level (≈94% chance the price closes below it), so I won’t aim that high yet. 🐻🔴 In a bearish scenario: 5975 and 5950 are the first nearby support zones (Deltas 30 and 38). If momentum picks up, 5900 becomes reachable quickly, even if it's technically a 17-delta distance — because that’s deep in the negative GEX zone. 📅 Don’t forget: On Wednesday premarket, we’ll get Core Inflation Rate data — a key macro risk that could shake things up, regardless of TSLA drama fading. 📌 SPX Weekly Trading Plan Conclusion Whatever your bias, keep cheap downside hedges in place. We've been rising for a long time, and even if SPX breaks out of the descending channel temporarily, resistance and the gamma landscape may pull price back swiftly.6050-6060 was the first major support, we've tested today and the price bounced back. Let's see the rest of the week.Played out well : - upside bullish T1+T2 reached - after premarket selloff T1+T2 reached Done for this week, dog conquer Fridays.06/16 weekly update:[06/30] Weekly Update:

Last week, TSLA dropped hard, likely due to political tensions. Let’s not forget — just a month ago, their EVs were showcased at the White House entrance... In the span of 30 hours, TSLA fell -22% (see red line below), while SPX barely reacted. Why? Because both realized and implied volatility dropped — remember VIX is around 17/18. This sharp TSLA drop already seemed overdone, which helped fuel the +5% bounce on Friday.Most TSLA options positions are near-term and still show negative sentiment — but further expirations grow increasingly bullish. 🔍 If you use options GEX matrix , you’ll see the bearish hedging flow gradually turns more neutral-to-bullish. Most cumulative support/resistance zones lie between 250–340, with spot currently just under the chop zone. 🧠 TSLA Trade Idea It’s been a while since I posted a neutral Iron Condor, but TSLA might be an exception. Despite last week’s IV spike, call pricing skew still dominates across expirations — as seen in our Options Overlay indicator.This tells me the market doesn’t fear TSLA crashing below 200. So, I’m aiming to capture premium on the July 18th expiry without day trading. I’m thinking of something simple, well-manageable in either direction.To refine leg placement, I use visual GEX zones. 🐻🔴 Downside: Strong put support at 250 Gradual support layers up to 280 🐂 🟢 Upside: Target area: 340–350 for the July 18 expiry. 📅 Closing the Trade:I'll consider closing or adjusting at 21 DTE or when 50% max profit is hit — per TastyTrade’s studies. 🔁 Rolling Plan:IF short delta on one side drops below ~14 and price pulls away, I’ll roll the untested side to collect more credit. 🧑‍🏫 I’ll likely post trade management live in Discord for educational purposes. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 🦋 Bonus Idea: TSLA Broken Wing Butterfly If you think TSLA has more downside, a Put Broken Wing Butterfly — like the one shown in my previous YT video — is also a great way to structure this trade using the same GEX levels. There’s no single way to use Gamma Exposure — it’s the most actionable hedging signal we have. Combine it with your knowledge of strategies and you can trade almost any scenario. One thing’s for sure — this market moves faster than ever.A single day of internal conflict wiped -22% off TSLA…The next morning, the market already moved on, so as always: Trade Safe Out There!YESTERDAY OPENED, with a bit modified the legs BTO TSLA 225P 7/18/25 at $4.65 STO -1× TSLA 245P 7/18/25 at $7.72 STO -1× TSLA 345C 7/18/25 at $8.93 BTO TSLA 365C 7/18/25 at $5.85 Total: $615 credit recieved

The biggest event last week was undoubtedly the court ruling involving Trump. The market responded with optimism, and on Thursday premarket, SPX surged toward the 6000 level — only to get instantly rejected. That strong rejection suggests this is a firm resistance zone. From the GEX expiry matrix, it's clear that the market is hedging upward for this week, but downward for next week. To me, this indicates that while the near-term GEX sentiment remains slightly bullish, the market may be preparing for a pullback or retest in the medium term. This week, SPX has already entered a GEX zone surrounded by positive strikes — up to around the 6000 level. That makes 6000 an “easy target” for bulls, and we’ll likely see profit-taking here, just like we did last Thursday premarket. ⚠️ However, if we look more closely at the weekly net open interest: ...we can see a strong bullish net OI build-up starting to emerge around the 6100 level — a price zone that currently feels distant and even unreachable. But if the 6000 resistance breaks, we could see a fast gamma-driven squeeze up to 6050 and possibly 6100 before the next wave of profit-taking kicks in. As is often the case during bullish moves, the market seems blind to the bigger picture — no one’s looking down, only up. The mood is greedy, and momentum favors the bulls... for now. Never underestimate FOMO — but also never underestimate Trump. He’s unlikely to accept the court’s decision on tariffs quietly. Any new negative headline could shake the market, no matter where price is sitting…5990...will be the squeeze released to 6000 by this week or not? This is the question ⁉️🚀 Today we finally reached the 6000 level – a major milestone! There was a lot of hedging around here, and it was a huge target for the bulls. The final stretch was a real grind, and as soon as we hit it, sellers immediately stepped in on the SPX. 📉 For now, it looks like a very strong resistance level. 💥

⚠️ Unbalanced GEX & Institutional Hedging – A Closer Look I haven’t seen such an asymmetric GEX setup in quite a while — and it’s definitely not a pretty one 😬. The current profile suggests a highly skewed positioning in the market: 📍 Massive upside expectation: It feels like the market is almost exclusively preparing for a move toward 6000. 🛑 Limited downside protection: Below the current level, there's very little hedging in place — especially unusual with Friday’s expiry approaching. 🔻 Current Key Zone: 5925-5930 The largest put open interest is sitting right around 5925, which is also close to spot. Below that? Things get murky. The GEX profile becomes fragmented and mixed, with no clear put support until much lower. Interestingly, most of the current downside hedging is clustered around the 5900–5925 range, which includes ITM puts — not OTM, as you’d typically expect from retail. 🧠 Institutional Footprint vs. Retail This hedging pattern — closer to ATM rather than deep OTM — suggests institutional players are managing downside risk with precision. In contrast, retail traders don’t seem to be actively hedging the downside with OTM puts, which is a notable shift from typical behavior in high-IV weeks like this. 🔼 What to Watch: The 5930 Breakout If SPX can break and hold above 5930, it enters a clear, call-dominated zone. From there, the path to 6000 looks much cleaner, with lighter resistance and the potential for a gamma-driven push 📈. The details show the same picture when examining more details: SPX conclusion 😬 In short: we’re at a tipping point. Below 5900, hedging is tactical and institutional. Above 5900, the path is open to 6000 — but only if bulls can take control at 5930!Volatility has clearly been held up in SPX so far this week, but as soon as NVDA reported, the VIX started dropping. We’ve now entered the green zone, just as expected once we crossed 5930! Based on the current setup, I don’t expect significant resistance until we reach 6000.

NVDA reports earnings this Wednesday, and it’s a big deal. A major move could impact both the indexes and broader tech sector. The OTM 16 delta curve essentially overlaps with both the GEX profile and the expected probability zone — signaling strong confluence. 📈 Rising IV with falling call skew: Volatility is rising into earnings, while the call skew is dropping — a sign of growing interest in downside hedging/speculation. 🔷 Key inflection zone (129): Above 129, the market is unlikely to surprise. Below it, however, a domino effect could trigger increased volatility and put-side flows. Implied move into earnings is 6.62%, reflecting binary risk expectations from the options market. Strong gamma squeeze territory exists between 140–145, with significant call wall buildup around 140. The nearest expiry shows a positive net GEX — supporting short-term mean-reversion or hedging flow stability above 129, at least until the earnings print. 🔴 Downside risk scenario: In the event of a downward move, the market is most heavily hedged around the 125 level, which aligns with the deepest put support. 💡 Wheeling Opportunity Idea ONLY IF you want to own NVDA long-term around the $130 level (even if it drops short/mid-term), this might be a great time to start the wheeling strategy. Because earnings inflate volatility, you can sell a near-term cash-secured put (CSP) for solid premium — even on a 53DTE (July) option. Based on current GEX levels, we’re seeing: -Support (squeeze zone) around $125 -Call resistance around $140 -A potential upside squeeze extending to $145-$150 These align roughly with ~20 delta OTM options, so the premium is attractive. How would I personally start this: Sell a CSP for May 30 with the intention to get assigned if NVDA drops. If I do get assigned, I’m happy to own shares. Then, I sell a 60DTE covered call right after to collect another round of premium. If I’m not assigned, I sell a new 45–60DTE put the following week — still benefiting from the relatively high IV. 👉 Remember: High IV = synthetic time value. With this two-step method, you can harvest premium twice in quick succession. I used the same technique with INTC , and it’s been performing well. 💥 ONLY IF you want to own NVDA long-term around the $130 level (even if it drops short/mid-term)!After the earnings announcement, the price shot up, and as expected, the call resistance — which essentially marks a profit-taking level — successfully halted the sudden move. Bingo.