SebastianofMoon

Hello! Currently, I only see two possibilities of what Bitcoin will be doing. The first one is that we just continue rising without big interruptions, and we will be going to at least 100k, possibly between 100k and 150k. The second one is, that this is all just a giant bulltrap, we go to 40k-ish, and then go much lower than anyone would have thought possible. Why these two extremes? Simple, because too many people think that we'll get a repeat of 2020/21 or 2017/18. I am pretty sure that therefore, exactly this will NOT happen. If we get a rally to 100k+, then this will be a surprise to everybody, and the same if the second thing happens. Both would be quite unexpected, because everybody believes that we will only see a new ATH in 2024 and later. And I think something new will happen, something unexpected, and these are the two most unexpected things, that don't fit the usual 4 year cycle theory, a theory which I think is wrong by the way. We only had 4 year cycles, because we were super lucky that the SP500 or Dow Jones made new Alltime highs since 2010, and on average also every 4 years. That whas driving Bitcoin's price, and not as much the halvings as I had initially thought. So the first scenario of 100k+ will happen if the FED pauses rate hikes, in that pause, which could last the whole year (but only if inflation comes down), then we will see a huge stock rally and then Bitcoin can also rise. But if stocks will fall and we will see a crash event like in 2008, which cannot be excluded, then it will drag Bitcoin down with it. Be prepared for both scenarios. It will be decided in the 40-50k range.

So XRP did disappoint in the 2021 rally, but in hindsight, as always, one could have expected it. Damn hindsight :) It appears that XRPUSD is forming a gigantic multiyear mega wedge, similar to the first megawedge of 2013-2017, this would be the second one from 2018-2024, so 2 years longer than the first one. Of course, the direction of the breakout will depend on: 1. The conclusion of the SEC case 2. The direction which BTC will take So if SEC resolves well for Ripple AND BTC makes new all time highs in the 2024/25 cycle, then yes, XRP will reach nice valuations of at least 10 USD. If SEC resolves badly for Ripple AND BTC pumps, expect much lower target prices. If SEC resolves well for Ripple AND BTC dumps, then also much lower target prices. Worst case is of course BTC dumps, so no rally in 2024, and they also lose the case. Then expect this mega wedge to break to the downside. So we can see, it all depends on the SEC case and BTC. But a buy in if BTC goes to ATH levels in 2024 would make sense, since the risk/reward could pay off well. The worst thing that could happen then, is that it pumps only a little if they lose the case. So that is the longterm plan for XRP. A really brutal coin, probably by far the most unfun to hodl for long periods of time. But the risk reward in 2024 and later if everything goes well, could be large.

It's time for an update on the longterm bitcoin trend channel. Basically all Bitcoin logarithmic growth channels were far too optimistic. Bitcoin is growing a lot slower than most people would like, but that is just the reality, and we have to accordingly expect much lower targets in the future. If this trend continues, and that is a big if, then we can expect around 130-150k USD as a target for Bitcoin sometime in early to late 2025. I have drawn the length of time it took for BTC to reach a top after each halving, and it was always in the timeframe from 300 something to 500 something days. The 2021 rally was strange because there was some sort of double peak, so it depends what we see as the top. But we have to say goodbye to the outlandish targets of hundreds of thousands imho. 130-150k in 2025 is what we're realistically gonna get, with a lot of luck 180k, but I think that would already be a very excellent goal. Better to be on the conservative side. In 2021, BTC managed to only go 3x over the previous top, and that ratio seems to be declining, so a 2x over the 2021 would not seem too pessimistic. The problem is that adoption is a lot slower than anybody expected. We just have to look at the daily transactions and numer of unique wallets used: These charts grow a lot slower than most people would have believed. Of course, please keep in mind that, should the stockmarket crash dramatically, this scenario here will not happen, because then it will drag Bitcoin down into the Abyss. This scenario here can only happen if stocks remain stable and go sideway-ish at worst. And I don't know how realisitc such a scenario is with the very high inflation + super inverted yield curve. Very uncertain times, and this is the first time in history, where I only see a 50-70% chance of a new Bitcoin cycle even occuring. But should it occur, then we must live with much lower price targets than most people would have liked.

This looks really bad now. I thought that we would enter a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern, but Bitcoin's continued weakness let's me fear for a worst-case scenario. There is still time and we could get lucky for a Wyckoff pattern, but should BTC really go lower, it is likely that we would visit the 12k area. Many people would then think: Awesome, cheap coins ! This is excellent ! I will buy cheap coins and then Bitcoin will make new All-time highs after the next halving. But wait ! From a technical perspective, this is really bad if Bitcoin goes really so low. It basically breaks all important support levels, and this would mean that the entire runup from 2010 until 2022, has been a completed 5-Wave Eliott structure. And that would mean that we would get a huge ABC correction, where the A wave goes to 12k, and consequently the C wave would go much lower, to around 2k. Sounds insane, but that is what would happen from a technical perspective. The B wave would go to around 40k, and people would be really optimistic again, we would see lots of "CCMF" and laser eyes, and whatnot, but in reality it would just be a bounce. And this would also coincide for when I think the real recession will come: Normally it starts about 6-12 months after the FED pivot . The FED is expected to pivot in Q1 2023. Thus, we would see the start of the real bearmarket in early 2024. THis in turn means, that there would not be a new alltime high for the Bitcoin Halving. Yes, sure, some coins would pump nicely, but we would not get the typical super mania phase where many many coins pump like crazy. On the right side I drew ETHUSD , which did something very similar a few years ago. The structure is very similar, and I think that this is what BTC would do. But of course I still hope that my previous idea will be the correct one, the Wyckoff accumulation pattern. Then we would soon see a bounce to 25k and the final spring at around 16k. Let's hope for that scenario, because the 12k scenario would mean quite a few years of brutal bearmarket.

Bitcoin's path will 100% depend on FED meeting Bitcoin has become really extremely correlated to the stock market, much to my disappointment to be honest. It is not the inflation hedge as which it was heralded, instead it behaves 100% like a tech stock. Thus, the monetary policy of the FED will decide the path forward. If the FED will raise interest rates strongly at the meeting on September 22nd, then we are going to dump. But Bitcoin will rise strongly, making everybody bullish again, and in good old Bitcoin fashion, it will then make a fool of bulls and bears alike. But should inflation come down strongly until late September, and this will have to be seen in the next CPI report in August, then there is a chance that the FED will start pivoting at some point sooner than expected. Should the FED not raise rates in September, expect a strong rally in stocks and bitcoin . I really see only these 2 paths forward, and I wish I could say that Bitcoin's behavior depends on this or that indicator, but tbh it doesn't make a lot of sense any more to look at BTC indicators, it makes much more sense to look at the stock market and analyze if it will rise or fall. Also, I think in either case, BTC will break the logarithmic downtrend resistance, even if it's only a bounce, because that would make many people bullish , and there's nothing that BTC likes more than to raise false hopes, before a total reversal into the opposite direction.

Bitcoin can ONLY rise if the Dollar DXY falls Hello, it's been a while since I published a chart on TV. It's time again :) There is one very simple rule or mechanism that has a very big influence on Bitcoin price development. There are of course the halvings, then there is adoption, but then there is a strong positive correlation with stocks and anti correlation with the Dollar. So a strong dollar will mean that BTC will not rise, even experience bearmarkets. The dollar is currently rising strongly, fueled by the interest rate hikes by the FED. 8-9 rate hikes are expected this year. So only if the FED decides to not raise rates as aggressively as they said they would, can Bitcoin rise, because that would lead DXY to massively dump. I don't like it, nobody likes it, but IF we get a rally this year, thus fully rests on the decisions of the FED. If they continue to aggressively hike => DXY bullmarket => BTC stays flat or Bearmarket If they decide to become more dovish, not hike as aggressively => DXY dumps => BTC rally It's really as simple as that currently. Just my thoughts on the current situation.