OuChiBoy

از دیدگاه ساختاری، نمودارهای روزانه و هفتگی BNBUSDT BNB، به همراه شاخص‌های بلندمدت، به نظر می‌رسد در یک نقطه عطف حیاتی قرار دارند. اگر بتواند با موفقیت از این سطح عبور کند - به ویژه با پشتیبانی از تحولات بنیادی کلان - ممکن است یک روند جدید شکل بگیرد. با این حال، تحلیل تکنیکال تنها می‌تواند به عنوان یک مرجع عمل کند و نباید به عنوان پیش‌بینی‌کننده تحقق ارزش بلندمدت به آن تکیه کرد.

In-Depth Study of Bitcoin's Value Trends: The Evolutionary Code Across Four HalvingsAuthors: SanTi Li, Nahida, LegolasAbstract: This paper focuses on Bitcoin's four halving events from 2012 to 2024, systematically reviewing the halving mechanism, inflation rate trends, and analyzing market performance before and after each halving to explore their impact on price movements. Through historical data analysis and macro comparisons, it is highlighted that Bitcoin has entered a cycle where its inflation rate is lower than that of gold, emphasizing its scarcity and establishing a long-term value logic comparable to traditional assets. Additionally, from the perspective of the four halving cycles, although the price increase post-2024 halving has been moderate, it is still in the accumulation phase, with the real window potentially opening between 2025 and 2026. The article concludes by discussing Bitcoin's core value foundations, including scarcity, decentralization mechanisms, and deflationary models, indicating its maturing logic as "digital gold."1.Bitcoin Halving Cycle: Block Rewards and Inflation RateBitcoin, designed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins. Initially, miners received 50 BTC per successfully mined block, with this reward halving approximately every 210,000 blocks (about four years), gradually reducing the new issuance. The halving cycle officially began in 2012, with subsequent halvings every four years. In 2024, the block reward became 3.125 BTC, leading to an annual inflation of 52,560 x 3.125 = 164,250 BTC, accounting for approximately 0.782% of the total supply.This inflation rate is already lower than that of most developed countries and gold, which has an annual production inflation rate of about 1.5%-2%. Currently, Bitcoin has entered a cycle with an inflation rate lower than that of gold.Fig.1 Bitcoin Halving Cycle Rewards and Inflation Rate ChartAs shown in the chart: When each block reward was 50 BTC, the annual increase was approximately 52,560 x 50 = 2.628 million BTC, about 12.5% of the total 21 million supply. In 2025, with a 6.25 BTC reward per block, the annual increase is 52,560 x 6.25 = 328,500 BTC, about 1.564% of the total supply.As of around 14:00 on May 7, 2025, approximately 19,861,268 BTC have been mined, accounting for about 94.58% of the total supply, with a total market capitalization of approximately $2.034 trillion. Compared to the previous halving cycle in 2020, when about 18,385,031 BTC had been mined (approximately 87.5% of the total supply) and the total market capitalization was about $161.8 billion, the market cap has increased by approximately 1,236% over five years.In the next four years, the annual inflation rate will be only 0.782%.Fig.2 Comparison of Inflation Rates in Major Countries (2019-2025)In 2019, China's inflation rate was about 2.9%, and the United States' was 2.3%. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and subsequent stimulus measures, it was predicted that the U.S. would experience significant inflation from 2020 to 2022. Indeed, the U.S. inflation rate reached a high of 8%, later decreasing to around 2.2% by 2024 due to Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. China's annual inflation rate is about 0.2%, effectively controlling inflation among major countries. Most developed countries have an inflation rate of around 2.5%, but the actual experience of currency devaluation may be more pronounced than statistical data suggests.At this time, the latest Bitcoin halving will further reduce BTC's inflation rate to a new historical low of 0.782%. A lower inflation rate is generally beneficial for any asset, as it increases scarcity. However, this does not necessarily mean the asset's value will increase by 100% in the short term, but it is an important factor in resisting devaluation.ii.Comparative Analysis of Market Performance After Four Bitcoin HalvingsSince Bitcoin's inception, each block reward halving has had a profound impact on BTC's market price. From 2012 to 2024, the four halving events exhibit relatively consistent cyclical characteristics. This paper compares market price trends before and after each halving to extract valuable patterns. History never repeats exactly, but before reaching peaks or nearing destruction, similar patterns often emerge.Fig.3 BTC Value Changes Across Four Halving CyclesThe chart in Fig.3 summarizes BTC's trend data six months before and one year after each halving, as well as the highest point within the corresponding cycle. It shows that after each halving, Bitcoin's price experienced significant increases.Using the closing price on the halving day as a baseline: 2012 halving: over 8,000% increase within one year 2016 halving: approximately 286% increase 2020 halving: approximately 475% increase 2024 halving: approximately 31% increase within one year (as of now), with a peak increase of 68.75% ($109,588)1.Significant Price Increases Six Months Before Halving Reviewing the four halving events,Bitcoin typically enters an upward trend six months prior to halving. For example:●2012 halving: 141.03% increase compared to six months prior●2024 halving: 118.88% increase compared to six months priorThis phase often corresponds to the market gradually pricing in the "halving expectation," serving as a strong preparatory signal.2.Core Explosion Period 6–12 Months After Halving,Not Necessarily the Peak Historical data shows that the 6–12 months following a halving are typically the main growth phase for Bitcoin:●2012: 8,181.51% increase within one year●2016: 286.29% increase●2020: 475.64% increase●2024: Currently, 31.18% increase, with a peak of 68.75% ($100.9k)Especially in 2012 and 2020, the structure showed "consolidation within six months, followed by an explosion." After one year, the market entered the most significant growth phase, reaching new historical highs. As the 2024 halving has just passed one year, if history repeats, the real explosion window may open between 2025 and Q1 2026.3.First-Year Post-Halving Trends Provide Preliminary ReferenceAfter the 2024 halving, Bitcoin increased by 10.02% within a month but then experienced two months of fluctuation and correction, remaining in the accumulation phase. By October 2024 (six months post-halving), the price had only slightly increased by 6.30% compared to the halving day, far from entering the main growth phase. However, this is not uncommon historically, as both 2016 and 2020 saw significant price movements starting six months after the halving.4.Bull Market Peaks Typically Occur 6–12 Months After HalvingBased on data from the first three cycles, the highest prices relative to the halving day's closing price occurred in the mid-term before the next halving:●2012: 9,237.15% increase●2016: 2,825.84% increase●2020: 700.28% increaseIn the current 2024 halving cycle, a peak of $109,588 has been observed, representing a 68.75% increase from the halving day, but it has not yet entered an exponential growth phase. This pattern applies only to the current cycle; if Bitcoin reaches values as high as $300,000–$500,000 or even $1 million, its valuation will be enormous. Unless there is significant devaluation of reference assets or further expansion of applications, such as interstellar exploration, it will be challenging to achieve multiple-fold growth in the next halving.Chart Summary: Bitcoin's historical halving cycles exhibit a highly consistent three-phase rhythm: Accumulation and price increase (six months before halving) Stable fluctuation (six months after halving) Main growth explosion (6–18 months after halving) As the 2024 halving approaches its one-year mark, the market may still be accumulating energy for the later explosion phase, similar to the prelude to 2017, coinciding with the early period of Trump's presidency.The Stock-to-Flow chart also indirectly supports the view that Bitcoin is still in a phase of accumulating strength. However, historical data and patterns are only for reference and should not be blindly followed; independent judgment and thorough research (DYOR) are essential.Fig.4 Bitcoin Price Stock-to-Flow ChartIII. Scientific Attributes of Bitcoin's Long-Term ValueThe value of an asset stems from both consensus and intrinsic worth. Long-term consensus, in particular, must be grounded in the asset’s inherent advancement, scientific underpinnings, and irreplaceable first-mover advantage. Bitcoin (BTC) is not merely a crypto asset — it is the culmination of breakthroughs in technology, economics, mathematics, cryptography, and more. Its long-term value is not sustained by market speculation alone, but rather built on a rigorous, verifiable, and manipulation-resistant system design.1. ScarcityAs previously discussed, Bitcoin has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins, encoded in its protocol by Satoshi Nakamoto. Through a programmed halving mechanism, block rewards are reduced approximately every four years, with all coins expected to be mined by around the year 2140. Unlike fiat currencies which can be printed infinitely, Bitcoin’s deflationary nature supports its long-term appreciation from a supply-demand perspective.Scarcity is the cornerstone of Bitcoin’s inflation resistance and lays the foundation for its status as "digital gold".2. Decentralization: Neutrality Guaranteed by Consensus MechanismBitcoin’s decentralized Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism relies on computational power. Any node can verify transactions and participate in ledger maintenance. This structure avoids issues found in traditional financial systems such as central points of failure, power abuse, or systemic control. Its globally distributed nature significantly reduces the likelihood of a 51% attack.3. Deflationary Model vs. Fiat Currency DevaluationAs shown in Fig.2 (not included here), Bitcoin's built-in deflationary issuance model starkly contrasts with the inflationary nature of global fiat currencies. Since 2020, central banks around the world have launched large-scale QE programs, resulting in currency overflows. Bitcoin has increasingly demonstrated its role as a hedge against fiat depreciation and asset bubbles. It is becoming a safe haven for capital in an era of diminishing trust in fiat money.4. Technological Attributes: Advanced Cryptography + P2P Network DesignBitcoin integrates multiple cutting-edge technologies:●ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm): Ensures account security and private key signatures.●SHA-256 Hash Algorithm: Guarantees data immutability.●Merkle Tree Structure: Enables efficient verification of transactions within a block.●Peer-to-Peer Network (P2P): Facilitates global value transfers without intermediaries.These technologies make Bitcoin a robust and unforgeable value transmission network, with infinite scalability potential — laying the groundwork for second-layer expansions like the Lightning Network and future applications. Bitcoin is not only an asset but also a masterpiece of cryptographic engineering. Future quantum-resistance updates are also worth watching.5. A Challenger to the Global Financial Order: A Non-Sovereign Asset Amidst Dollar TransitionThe world is witnessing a wave of de-dollarization, with international settlements shifting toward local currencies, gold, and decentralized assets. With its non-sovereign neutrality, global accessibility, and scarcity, Bitcoin has become a crucial channel for capital transfer and value storage, especially in emerging markets and unstable regions. It offers an alternative financial model coexisting with — yet independent from — the dollar and gold: a neutral system of consensus-based currency. In times when national creditworthiness is questioned, reliance on algorithmic credibility could become a strategic moat. Of course, this will require further regulatory oversight to prevent illegal activities.6. A Potential Financial Infrastructure for Interplanetary Civilizations (Speculative Idea)Bitcoin is the only current value protocol not reliant on any country, bank, or internet entity. Its ledger can exist across planetary nodes — as long as electricity and computing power are available, the network can be maintained. This structure makes it naturally suitable for future space exploration scenarios, such as on Mars or the Moon, where fast and direct usage would be advantageous. While human space exploration is still in its infancy, with no major breakthroughs in stable planetary settlement, this idea remains speculative. However, from a 30–50 year perspective, initial interplanetary applications may not be entirely implausible. Bitcoin (or credit-like tokens) could serve as the base-layer token of human digital civilization.Summary: BTC's Scientific Foundation●Supply Ceiling (Scarcity) + Consensus Strength (Decentralization)●Real-World Context: Weakening trust in fiat currency and expanding debt bubbles●In the face of future uncertainty, Bitcoin's "anchor-like properties" become increasingly prominent.4. Summary of BTC’s Long-Term Value TrendsThrough the analysis of Bitcoin's halving cycles and scientific fundamentals, the following conclusions can be drawn:Bitcoin’s four halving cycles to date have demonstrated a consistent market rhythm: price rises in anticipation before each halving, followed by short-term consolidation, then a major rally. Post-2024 halving, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate has dropped to 0.78% — lower than gold for the first time — reinforcing its role as a scarce asset.Against the backdrop of persistent global fiat inflation, expanding credit, and growing fiscal deficits, Bitcoin’s deflationary model and decentralized structure are attracting increasing attention and allocation from traditional capital.Although short-term volatility remains and black swan events cannot be ruled out, Bitcoin's long-term value logic is becoming clearer: it is not just a cryptocurrency, but a new type of asset based on cryptographic trust and decentralized consensus. In future cycles, Bitcoin's value potential, inflation-hedging ability, technical uniqueness, and expanding ecosystem will continue to empower it, building the essential value moat of a true “digital gold”.Disclaimer on Perspectives:Some people dismiss Bitcoin due to market speculation or scam-like projects. However, equating it entirely with such phenomena is an unobjective approach. Projects that rely solely on hype — such as many memecoins — tend to lack sustainability.Risk Warning:This article serves only as educational research and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and make independent judgments. Never blindly follow anyone — DYOR (Do Your Own Research). BTCUSD ETHUSD

In-Depth Study of Bitcoin's Value Trends: The Evolutionary Code Across Four HalvingsAuthors: SanTi Li, Nahida, Legolas Abstract: This paper focuses on Bitcoin's four halving events from 2012 to 2024, systematically reviewing the halving mechanism, inflation rate trends, and analyzing market performance before and after each halving to explore their impact on price movements. Through historical data analysis and macro comparisons, it is highlighted that Bitcoin has entered a cycle where its inflation rate is lower than that of gold, emphasizing its scarcity and establishing a long-term value logic comparable to traditional assets. Additionally, from the perspective of the four halving cycles, although the price increase post-2024 halving has been moderate, it is still in the accumulation phase, with the real window potentially opening between 2025 and 2026. The article concludes by discussing Bitcoin's core value foundations, including scarcity, decentralization mechanisms, and deflationary models, indicating its maturing logic as "digital gold." 1.Bitcoin Halving Cycle: Block Rewards and Inflation Rate Bitcoin, designed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins. Initially, miners received 50 BTC per successfully mined block, with this reward halving approximately every 210,000 blocks (about four years), gradually reducing the new issuance. The halving cycle officially began in 2012, with subsequent halvings every four years. In 2024, the block reward became 3.125 BTC, leading to an annual inflation of 52,560 x 3.125 = 164,250 BTC, accounting for approximately 0.782% of the total supply. This inflation rate is already lower than that of most developed countries and gold, which has an annual production inflation rate of about 1.5%-2%. Currently, Bitcoin has entered a cycle with an inflation rate lower than that of gold. [url=x.com/SantiLi1021/status/1920297273080361307 ]x.com/SantiLi1021/status/1920297273080361307 Fig.1 Bitcoin Halving Cycle Rewards and Inflation Rate Chart As shown in the chart: When each block reward was 50 BTC, the annual increase was approximately 52,560 x 50 = 2.628 million BTC, about 12.5% of the total 21 million supply. In 2025, with a 6.25 BTC reward per block, the annual increase is 52,560 x 6.25 = 328,500 BTC, about 1.564% of the total supply. As of around 14:00 on May 7, 2025, approximately 19,861,268 BTC have been mined, accounting for about 94.58% of the total supply, with a total market capitalization of approximately $2.034 trillion. Compared to the previous halving cycle in 2020, when about 18,385,031 BTC had been mined (approximately 87.5% of the total supply) and the total market capitalization was about $161.8 billion, the market cap has increased by approximately 1,236% over five years. In the next four years, the annual inflation rate will be only 0.782%. Fig.2 Comparison of Inflation Rates in Major Countries (2019-2025) In 2019, China's inflation rate was about 2.9%, and the United States' was 2.3%. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and subsequent stimulus measures, it was predicted that the U.S. would experience significant inflation from 2020 to 2022. Indeed, the U.S. inflation rate reached a high of 8%, later decreasing to around 2.2% by 2024 due to Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. China's annual inflation rate is about 0.2%, effectively controlling inflation among major countries. Most developed countries have an inflation rate of around 2.5%, but the actual experience of currency devaluation may be more pronounced than statistical data suggests. At this time, the latest Bitcoin halving will further reduce BTC's inflation rate to a new historical low of 0.782%. A lower inflation rate is generally beneficial for any asset, as it increases scarcity. However, this does not necessarily mean the asset's value will increase by 100% in the short term, but it is an important factor in resisting devaluation. ii.Comparative Analysis of Market Performance After Four Bitcoin Halvings Since Bitcoin's inception, each block reward halving has had a profound impact on BTC's market price. From 2012 to 2024, the four halving events exhibit relatively consistent cyclical characteristics. This paper compares market price trends before and after each halving to extract valuable patterns. History never repeats exactly, but before reaching peaks or nearing destruction, similar patterns often emerge. Fig.3 BTC Value Changes Across Four Halving Cycles The chart in Fig.3 summarizes BTC's trend data six months before and one year after each halving, as well as the highest point within the corresponding cycle. It shows that after each halving, Bitcoin's price experienced significant increases. Using the closing price on the halving day as a baseline: 2012 halving: over 8,000% increase within one year 2016 halving: approximately 286% increase 2020 halving: approximately 475% increase 2024 halving: approximately 31% increase within one year (as of now), with a peak increase of 68.75% ($109,588) 1.Significant Price Increases Six Months Before Halving Reviewing the four halving events,Bitcoin typically enters an upward trend six months prior to halving. For example: ●2012 halving: 141.03% increase compared to six months prior ●2024 halving: 118.88% increase compared to six months prior This phase often corresponds to the market gradually pricing in the "halving expectation," serving as a strong preparatory signal. 2.Core Explosion Period 6–12 Months After Halving, Not Necessarily the Peak Historical data shows that the 6–12 months following a halving are typically the main growth phase for Bitcoin: ●2012: 8,181.51% increase within one year ●2016: 286.29% increase ●2020: 475.64% increase ●2024: Currently, 31.18% increase, with a peak of 68.75% ($100.9k) Especially in 2012 and 2020, the structure showed "consolidation within six months, followed by an explosion." After one year, the market entered the most significant growth phase, reaching new historical highs. As the 2024 halving has just passed one year, if history repeats, the real explosion window may open between 2025 and Q1 2026. 3.First-Year Post-Halving Trends Provide Preliminary Reference After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin increased by 10.02% within a month but then experienced two months of fluctuation and correction, remaining in the accumulation phase. By October 2024 (six months post-halving), the price had only slightly increased by 6.30% compared to the halving day, far from entering the main growth phase. However, this is not uncommon historically, as both 2016 and 2020 saw significant price movements starting six months after the halving. 4.Bull Market Peaks Typically Occur 6–12 Months After Halving Based on data from the first three cycles, the highest prices relative to the halving day's closing price occurred in the mid-term before the next halving: ●2012: 9,237.15% increase ●2016: 2,825.84% increase ●2020: 700.28% increase In the current 2024 halving cycle, a peak of $109,588 has been observed, representing a 68.75% increase from the halving day, but it has not yet entered an exponential growth phase. This pattern applies only to the current cycle; if Bitcoin reaches values as high as $300,000–$500,000 or even $1 million, its valuation will be enormous. Unless there is significant devaluation of reference assets or further expansion of applications, such as interstellar exploration, it will be challenging to achieve multiple-fold growth in the next halving. Chart Summary: Bitcoin's historical halving cycles exhibit a highly consistent three-phase rhythm: Accumulation and price increase (six months before halving) Stable fluctuation (six months after halving) Main growth explosion (6–18 months after halving) As the 2024 halving approaches its one-year mark, the market may still be accumulating energy for the later explosion phase, similar to the prelude to 2017, coinciding with the early period of Trump's presidency. The Stock-to-Flow chart also indirectly supports the view that Bitcoin is still in a phase of accumulating strength. However, historical data and patterns are only for reference and should not be blindly followed; independent judgment and thorough research (DYOR) are essential. Fig.4 Bitcoin Price Stock-to-Flow Chart III. Scientific Attributes of Bitcoin's Long-Term Value The value of an asset stems from both consensus and intrinsic worth. Long-term consensus, in particular, must be grounded in the asset’s inherent advancement, scientific underpinnings, and irreplaceable first-mover advantage. Bitcoin (BTC) is not merely a crypto asset — it is the culmination of breakthroughs in technology, economics, mathematics, cryptography, and more. Its long-term value is not sustained by market speculation alone, but rather built on a rigorous, verifiable, and manipulation-resistant system design.1. ScarcityAs previously discussed, Bitcoin has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins, encoded in its protocol by Satoshi Nakamoto. Through a programmed halving mechanism, block rewards are reduced approximately every four years, with all coins expected to be mined by around the year 2140. Unlike fiat currencies which can be printed infinitely, Bitcoin’s deflationary nature supports its long-term appreciation from a supply-demand perspective.Scarcity is the cornerstone of Bitcoin’s inflation resistance and lays the foundation for its status as "digital gold".2. Decentralization: Neutrality Guaranteed by Consensus MechanismBitcoin’s decentralized Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism relies on computational power. Any node can verify transactions and participate in ledger maintenance. This structure avoids issues found in traditional financial systems such as central points of failure, power abuse, or systemic control. Its globally distributed nature significantly reduces the likelihood of a 51% attack.3. Deflationary Model vs. Fiat Currency DevaluationAs shown in Fig.2 (not included here), Bitcoin's built-in deflationary issuance model starkly contrasts with the inflationary nature of global fiat currencies. Since 2020, central banks around the world have launched large-scale QE programs, resulting in currency overflows. Bitcoin has increasingly demonstrated its role as a hedge against fiat depreciation and asset bubbles. It is becoming a safe haven for capital in an era of diminishing trust in fiat money.4. Technological Attributes: Advanced Cryptography + P2P Network DesignBitcoin integrates multiple cutting-edge technologies:●ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm): Ensures account security and private key signatures.●SHA-256 Hash Algorithm: Guarantees data immutability.●Merkle Tree Structure: Enables efficient verification of transactions within a block.●Peer-to-Peer Network (P2P): Facilitates global value transfers without intermediaries.These technologies make Bitcoin a robust and unforgeable value transmission network, with infinite scalability potential — laying the groundwork for second-layer expansions like the Lightning Network and future applications. Bitcoin is not only an asset but also a masterpiece of cryptographic engineering. Future quantum-resistance updates are also worth watching.5. A Challenger to the Global Financial Order: A Non-Sovereign Asset Amidst Dollar TransitionThe world is witnessing a wave of de-dollarization, with international settlements shifting toward local currencies, gold, and decentralized assets. With its non-sovereign neutrality, global accessibility, and scarcity, Bitcoin has become a crucial channel for capital transfer and value storage, especially in emerging markets and unstable regions. It offers an alternative financial model coexisting with — yet independent from — the dollar and gold: a neutral system of consensus-based currency. In times when national creditworthiness is questioned, reliance on algorithmic credibility could become a strategic moat. Of course, this will require further regulatory oversight to prevent illegal activities.6. A Potential Financial Infrastructure for Interplanetary Civilizations (Speculative Idea)Bitcoin is the only current value protocol not reliant on any country, bank, or internet entity. Its ledger can exist across planetary nodes — as long as electricity and computing power are available, the network can be maintained. This structure makes it naturally suitable for future space exploration scenarios, such as on Mars or the Moon, where fast and direct usage would be advantageous. While human space exploration is still in its infancy, with no major breakthroughs in stable planetary settlement, this idea remains speculative. However, from a 30–50 year perspective, initial interplanetary applications may not be entirely implausible. Bitcoin (or credit-like tokens) could serve as the base-layer token of human digital civilization.Summary: BTC's Scientific Foundation●Supply Ceiling (Scarcity) + Consensus Strength (Decentralization)●Real-World Context: Weakening trust in fiat currency and expanding debt bubbles●In the face of future uncertainty, Bitcoin's "anchor-like properties" become increasingly prominent.4. Summary of BTC’s Long-Term Value TrendsThrough the analysis of Bitcoin's halving cycles and scientific fundamentals, the following conclusions can be drawn:Bitcoin’s four halving cycles to date have demonstrated a consistent market rhythm: price rises in anticipation before each halving, followed by short-term consolidation, then a major rally. Post-2024 halving, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate has dropped to 0.78% — lower than gold for the first time — reinforcing its role as a scarce asset.Against the backdrop of persistent global fiat inflation, expanding credit, and growing fiscal deficits, Bitcoin’s deflationary model and decentralized structure are attracting increasing attention and allocation from traditional capital.Although short-term volatility remains and black swan events cannot be ruled out, Bitcoin's long-term value logic is becoming clearer: it is not just a cryptocurrency, but a new type of asset based on cryptographic trust and decentralized consensus. In future cycles, Bitcoin's value potential, inflation-hedging ability, technical uniqueness, and expanding ecosystem will continue to empower it, building the essential value moat of a true “digital gold”.Disclaimer on Perspectives: Some people dismiss Bitcoin due to market speculation or scam-like projects. However, equating it entirely with such phenomena is an unobjective approach. Projects that rely solely on hype — such as many memecoins — tend to lack sustainability.Risk Warning: This article serves only as educational research and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and make independent judgments. Never blindly follow anyone — DYOR (Do Your Own Research).

5 Key Points for Blockchain Future 【old articles published on 2022】During 2020-2022, the blockchain industry experienced extremely rapid changes. From 2019 to the first half of 2020, there were almost no interesting primary projects and new ideas, until Compound directly drove the Defi boom, then followed by DEX, NFT, Metaverse, GameFi, and the upsurge of entrepreneurship.However, all industries of life follow the law of nature and the law of harmony between Yin and Yang. When the tide rises, the tide will ebb.The last wave of the X to Earn boom will be driven by StepN in 2022, when the "grand debut" of the LUNA crash, the top 3 in the industry, directly cools down the overheated market just like the arrival of the moon at night. Combined with the global supply-side imbalances caused by the Fed's interest rate hike strategy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the market has experienced extreme volatility and uncertainty.The sudden breakup of two supposedly friendly exchanges, Binance and FTX, is an indirect reminder that we are living in a period of extreme instability and diversification. The black swan and the white swan are more indistinguishable.There are great opportunities and uncertainties in the future. In order to better embrace the new rhythm, we may pay attention to the following five points:(The Chinese version was published at Nov, if you like reading Chinese, you can find that version)1. The blockchain world will expand larger ecosystems and exchanges, but not need as many.From the historical trend, everything is going to be unified after merger and elimination, and it is the same in the field of blockchain.Now, the ecology of the large platform of the layer 1 public chain has gradually entered the white-hot stage of the competition. With the test of the bear market, it is inevitable that more than one LUNA and FTX will leave and be eliminated from the projects and exchanges we are familiar with. LUNAUSDT FTTUSDT Of course, the fierce competition is also the alchemist of high-quality ecology, to test who can stabilize the internal situation to grasp the historical trend and become the next chain on the world leader.Therefore, risk avoidance and allocation should be done as early as possible. Focus on projects with long-term value and stay away from projects with lip service and over-the-top bragging.2. Conduct spiritual enrichment exercises as early as possible to meet the alternative fantasy world brought by the metaverse and Virtual age and effectively deal with deeper loneliness.The continuous progress of science and technology often brings more convenient living conditions and a more lonely spiritual world. With quick access to information, cool virtual effects, and big trends in VR and AR, we can basically see the future moving towards movies like and .According to the law of conservation of the universe, spiritual energy must also be conserved. For a simple example, when technology was not developed in the 1980s and 1990s, the friends who asked you to go downstairs to play every day, and the children born after the 2000s and 2010s basically play with iPad in their childhood. The latter has significantly more communication online, while the former has more face-to-face offline, and this sense of loneliness and distance will only get bigger as the tech trend flows.However, many post-00s suffer from depression and other mental diseases at an early age. The premature bombardment of technology and information is more likely to destroy people's spirits before the barriers and defensive lines of values are built. In the high-octane world of fintech, it's even more complicated, with an extra layer of Money that magnifies its power by at least 2.5 times.Therefore, as early as possible to carry out the psychological construction of the spiritual level, we can avoid inadaptation suffering as early as possible when the tide of The Times comes. A small number of people are eliminated by competition, and most of them are eliminated by The Times ( we can start with some classic books).3. Most projects said that they have Tech DNA but actually not Tech, Blockchain will be everywhereReal Tech projects tend to survive bear markets. Because they only need computers and shelter, they can continue to develop the project and do not need to spend a lot of money to hire too many expensive technical personnel. (Like Airbnb's early stage)This is important for the early and mid-term development of a project, and it is also crucial for engineers to resist the temptation of blockchain technology to make it easier when they are suddenly faced with the temptation of huge financing. Therefore, sometimes, projects under the guise of technology and slogan are often more deceiving than pyramid projects, because people will be CPUed.But one thing is certain, blockchain technology will be everywhere in the next five years, and the closest and fastest popularization should be: Historical relics NFT, ticketing systems (such as Ant Financial ticketing application, World Cup ticketing application), authentication systems (property ownership certificate, education certificate, birth certificate, etc.) and object traceability (various blockchain applications in milk, wine, luxury goods), the popularity of asset tokenization (apartment ownership, company tokenization, etc.), And countries' recognition of BTC as a currency outside the asset.Let ourselves catch up with the trend of The Times as soon as possible, in order to catch the last train more effectively. Because it's already branching out.4. People understand hot water hurts hands. But in the face of hot trends and hot spots, we often flock to and forget the risk.What is very easy to understand in our daily lives is often reversed when applied to the same things in other areas.For example, the simplest way to avoid hot water is because hot water has our physical nervous system acting as a force to protect the stress response, and can also avoid excessive injury. But the market contains the risk of hot topics, our spirit is often paralyzed in the temptation of interests, thus ultimately causing regrets and loss of money.Therefore, in the future virtual and technological era, there will be more sugar-coating bombardment, so our judgment to keep relatively objective has become a very important ability. So that you can ride on the hot trend, but also have a protection system to prevent yourself from injury.This is something that someone who is very good at following hot spots has been teaching us. Each time, he walked in with hot topics, fool the investors, and walked away. The most obvious of these is NFT, GameFi's early hype.5. Value will not change its core nature as times change. But it is a harder test of self-choice judgment and self-recognition ability.With the development of The Times and technology, they will become more and more intertwined with each other. Once a very simple business model, it may become more relevant after the integration of blockchain, VR, AR, and other technologies. But the core is still the same, just as a normal man, no matter how fancy he is, no matter how coquettish he is, his physical structure is also male (except for surgery).But the test of judgment and cognitive ability is more demanding, and complex at the same time, there are more opportunities. Because there are likely to be more Hamlets for the same enterprise or project, it is particularly important to keep updating our learning pool. At the same time, the influence of individuals like KOL on society will be further enhancedSummary:2022 is a transitional year before a new era, and in the next 20-30 years, there is a high probability that we will enter a more technological phase in which humans are not separated. In this stage, in my opinion, the most critical point is the second of the five points.Material and technological progress may lead to spiritual regression, but the good news is that our cultural foundation is deep enough. If you can understand Traditional Chinese, it will be a much more spiritual gem. Enough to fill our hearts and make us fully ready for the new world.Blockchain technology, whether public chain, private chain, or alliance chain, or sidechain is a big trend in technology popularization. It won't die even though some people hold negative views on it, but won't create gods because of some pyramid.For an ordinary person like us, the best way is to keep learning to enrich ourselves, and keep calm at all times, and stay away from the complicated and mixed-up areas of special strategies.This article has no financial advice or any guidance content

【Old article on 2024-3-5】-republish due to private indicators beforeTime flies, nearly four years have passed since we wrote a similar article, and we feel quite satisfied as 95% of the predictions have been met. Except for Boeing, which surprisingly didn't take off, Bilibili ($19), BTC ($3800), Tiger $3, and PDD ($19) achieved the expected 5-10x growth within two years. The subsequent performances of ACH,UOS, NEAR, and ALGO provided even greater surprises with 10-80x gains.However, I continuously reflect and hope to improve my judgment since, compared to readers who directly read the articles, those of us immersed in the sea of information sometimes have our initial judgments clouded by various external factors.We prefer to express our views at relatively low or high points in advance, allowing time to silently validate these opinions. Real-time perspectives are highly attractive but also constantly at risk, demanding much energy and health. Many have faced health warnings, and we hope everyone remains healthy and happy in 2024. I lean towards identifying the start and end points, then trusting the driver and natural progression for everything in between.Returning to the topic, it has been over two and a half years since a similar article, and I will discuss a few targets and core catalysts I believe are underestimated:1.Bitcoin (BTC) BTCUSD Introduction: Born in January 2009 as a hedge against inflation after the 2008 financial crisis, BTC has experienced nearly 16 years. Its underlying logic and blockchain technology have birthed foundational blockchains like Ethereum, ADA, SOL, AVAX, CFX, and Algo. BTC's development attributes have expanded potential applications, such as Stacks and RGB protocols. My ultimate expectation for BTC is simple: it could be valued highly just as a new E-GOLD for decades to come. If its ecosystem applications further explode, it could become one of this century's leading assets.Key Catalysts: The 2024 halving, reducing block rewards to 3.125 and resulting in a yearly inflation of about 0.782%, which is lower than the inflation rates of most developed countries. The next wave of funding entering the industry could be expedited by the SEC’s approval of ETFs, the alleviation of sell pressure from Grayscale's repositioning and MGOT, and traditional financial risks causing forced rescue actions by BTC-holding companies to pass.● Expected Valuation: $200,000 MC: 4.2 trillion USD, marking the beginning of a new world, extensively unfolding application scenariosReminder: It's important to emphasize that long-term expected valuations do not imply a straight path upwards from current price points. There might be an average upward trend, but short-term intense volatility is possible. Always remember not to engage in long-term commitments with high leverage. This reminder is also placed here for additional caution.2.Telegram Ime ( LIMEUSDT Lime) & TON ( TONUSDT TON)IntroductionIme Messenger is a special version of Telegram, integrating functionalities such as a multi-chain wallet, enabling direct transfers of various blockchain assets like BTC, ETH, AVAX, BNB, Polygon, Mantle, AVAX, etc., among Telegram friends. It incorporates features like Binance Pay, direct Google Translate in Twitter and TG conversations, and optimizes Telegram's overall layout and usability.Telegram accounts and chat histories, along with other crucial data, can be directly utilized in the Ime version of Telegram without the need for a new account. Similarly, chat histories in the IME version will automatically sync with the original Telegram version, facilitating easy switching. The Ime version essentially acts as an integrator, merging the Web3 world into the TG ecosystem, with TON leaning towards the chain ecosystem.TON is a native public blockchain ecosystem developed on top of Telegram, serving as an inherited blockchain project from TG's original project team. It introduces more development possibilities and diversity to Telegram's native ecosystem growth.● Core Logic:Within three years, the user base of the Ime version increased from 2 million to 10 million users, a 500% increase. The friendly relationship with Telegram's founding team enables seamless connection to Telegram's 700 million users. The latest multi-chain Token group red packet function uses Lime as the Gas fee, which will greatly benefit the project's operation and promotion if more convenient modes are optimized in the future. Ime's multi-chain integration feature can help project parties integrate into the Telegram ecosystem faster. Currently, LIME's FDV fluctuates between $5M and $10M, far below the valuation of many primary market projects.TON, as TG's native underlying public blockchain, ranks at the forefront in terms of operational level and market promotion. It can be directly used in the original version of TG, reducing the teaching cost. Although it doesn't support multi-chain, the wallet is a single-chain wallet in the form of a dialogue box. TON itself also has enough potential, and its FDV has surpassed $10 billion, indicating the market's expectations for Telegram.● Keys to Launch:Ime Lime:Due to the presence of many hardcore tech personnel from Russia and Ukraine, the involvement of core operational PR is needed to enhance the project's self-marketing capability.Further optimization of the TG group members' ability to freely use the red packet function to send various TOKENs as rewards to group members.More optimization of TG functionalities to be utilized.Further support and policies from Russia towards blockchain applications.TON:A more lenient regulatory stance from the SEC towards the official Telegram TON.Collaboration and output of SocialFi Killer-level projects on the chain.An increase in GameFi entering through TG as a portal.● Expected Valuation:Lime: Current MC FDV: $5.7M, Expected FDV: 3B-5BTON: Current MC FDV: $MUN:10B, Expected FDV: $60B3.Conflux (CFX) CFXUSDT ● Basic Introduction:Conflux is a Layer 1 public blockchain supported by a team that includes a Turing Award winner and technical advisors from Tsinghua University's Yao Class, aimed at long-term development platforms for dApps, e-commerce, Web 3, and metaverse infrastructures. Its Tree-Graph consensus mechanism, which combines Proof of Work (PoW) and Proof of Stake (PoS) algorithms, is considered one of the most prominent purely domestic projects in my opinion.● Core Logic:Conflux's unique Tree-Graph consensus algorithm achieves high scalability and low latency, driven by a technology-focused team, ensuring smoothness and convenience comparable to high-valuation blockchain projects like SOL and ETH. It aligns quickly with the mainstream development pace of Web3, waiting only for further opening and an increase in active users to unlock significant potential. Trendy applications are gradually making their way onto CFX.● Keys to Launch:Further support and liberalization for blockchain public chain applications and the metaverse by mainland China.Further popularization of the public chain as a pilot test in China's Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan regions.More official cooperation and implementation with institutions like CITIC, Xiaohongshu, leading to the complete disappearance of traditional capital suppression.Gradual maturity of Conflux's own development and formal, successful support for BTC L2.● Expected Valuation:Current MC FDV of CFX: Fluctuating around $0.9B, Expected FDV: $36B-$80B4.Opulous (OPUL) OPULUSDT ● Basic Introduction:A music RWA+DeFi project, where RWA has already achieved application cooperation with singers. Investors can participate in purchasing a portion of album rights with OPUL to earn subsequent album revenue shares from the artist. The new feature, Opulous OLOAN, creates a unique bridge between RWA and the music industry. By staking USDC in the pool, it provides funding for musicians and earns extra income on the staked USDC.OVAULT is a unique staking pool on the Opulous platform that allows you to stake USDC to access a diverse music library. This library, curated by Opulous music experts, features popular and high-performing songs. Participating in OVAULT not only grants access to this music library but also rewards, offering a way to engage with the music industry and profit from staking.● Core Logic:The company has a rich network of core music resources, with dittos being a music collaboration company of ED Sheeran, Overall, Opulous maintains a relatively leading position in market rhythm control, ranking as one of the more playful project parties on the Algorand and Arb chains. The pressure from private placements has been fully released.● Key to Launch:The further popularization of music applications, as well as the actual revenue generated by high-profit artists.● Expected Valuation:OPUL current MC FDV fluctuates around $50M-100M, with an expected FDV of $MUN:10B-$30B5.Bilibili (BILI) BILI ● Basic Introduction:A video creation and live streaming platform, a haven for secondary elements, and a platform concentrated with young purchasing power, which has invested in a bunch of enterprises leading to poor financial reports in recent years. Thus, the stock price has plummeted from its peak, so let's just drink to that.● Core Logic:Currently, the only platform in China that seems capable of competing with YouTube.Gaming may catch up to the era of Web3 entry points.High user stickiness, but consumer rights are currently somewhat limited to anime series.● Key to Launch:Encourage more original creative educational videos, as most Chinese videos now are summary-based, and original content is much less compared to YouTube. Activating this "wasteland" could be a significant source of revenue for Bili, as many are willing to pay for quality knowledge, but management needs to be stricter to prevent bad money from driving out good.Investments from the past two years are beginning to generate exit profits.Revise the business distribution; the current mix of live streaming and gaming services with the website is a bit odd.● Expected Valuation:Bili's current valuation: $3.8B MC FDV, with an expected valuation in 5 years of $50-100B.6.Avalanche / Polygon / Near / Algorand/ Solana AVAX NEARUSDT MATICUSD ALGOUSDT SOLUSDT ● Basic Introduction:Alt-L1 is a core foundational public blockchain infrastructure. AVAX and Polygon are more akin to Ethereum's sidechains, while Sol / Near / Algo have their own underlying architectures + EVM+BTC virtual machine compatibility or stand-alone projects to enhance compatibility with Ethereum. Each public blockchain has its own unique ecosystem. In 2024, it's more suitable for each chain to be discussed separately in a comprehensive series due to their foundational architectures, which cannot be fully covered here without extending into tens of thousands of words.● Core Logic:The security of L1's underlying architecture has become increasingly refined. Although there have been debates regarding Sol's foundational security, it's undeniable that Solana has become the largest ecosystem outside of Ethereum, even leading in popularity at times. However, with the initiation of Ethereum's layering series, Ethereum's ecosystem could potentially introduce more gameplay. AVAX, SOL, and Matic are perfect examples of market rhythm mastery, with Near being average in convenience, and Algo being the least market-savvy but having the highest prestige in terms of technical strength and collaborations.The other L1s are advancing similarly, now engaging in mutual competition. After an uninteresting two years, the public chain ecosystem is finally starting to show some vitality again.● Key to Launch:After global macroeconomic black swan events are thoroughly cleared, the new era's focus will shift further towards AI, blockchain, and informational fields, increasing the exploration desire for reservoirs and funds. LSD, Restaking, Rollup, and various new DeFi gameplay will further penetrate major ecosystems, sparking new value bubbles.● Expected Valuation:Future MC FDV:AVAX: 150BSOL: 300BALGO: 60B-150B (300B--- if the team optimizes and gets designated by US policies)NEAR: 50B-100BMATIC: 80B-100B (250B--- if designated by Indian policies)7.Tiger Brokers (Tiger) TIGR ● Basic Introduction:A youthful brokerage with excellent trading experience, superb data provision, and UI design, providing ample information on financial reports and data.● Core Logic:Undervalued, with virtual licenses approved. The support for compliant tokens like USDC for deposit could significantly increase trading volume and financial income.● Key to Launch:Further relaxation and support for compliant KYC by domestic policies.Overall recovery and accumulation in the financial markets.● Expected Valuation:Current FDV: 0.58B, Expected FDV: 10-20 B8.Planetswatch (Planets)● Basic Introduction:An eco-friendly project monitoring air quality through air sensors, allowing for real-time air quality data transmission via different sensor nodes in exchange for token rewards.● Core Logic:High early valuation and low circulation rate, with prices significantly dropping due to the bear market and inflation impacts, a common issue for early-stage projects with low circulation rates.● Key to Launch:Further global emphasis on environmental infrastructure, with Eco projects becoming a focal point in blockchain discussions.● Expected Valuation:Current MC FDV: 2M, Expected FDV: 20M-200M9.ContextLogic (Wish) $NASDAQ:WISH LOGC ● Basic Introduction:Wish is a U.S.-based e-commerce platform founded in 2010 by former Google employee Piotr Szulczewski and former Yahoo employee Danny Zhang. Its parent company, ContextLogic Inc., is headquartered in San Francisco, USA, primarily selling inexpensive household items, clothing, jewelry, electronics, toys, etc.● Core Logic:Overhyped by consortia like Goldman Sachs in 2020, leading to a steady fall to the verge of delisting. Prices are near low, with recent market actions and promotions starting to revive.● Key to Launch:Further reliance on group buying, especially the expectation of cheap group purchases by the consumption downgrade population.Entry of new major institutions into the acquisition process.Revival in financial reports and business.● Expected Valuation:Current MC FDV: 0.1B, Expected MC FDV: 2B-10B10.Waves Enterprises (West) $KUCOIN:WESTUSDT WESTUSDT ● Basic Introduction:Waves Enterprise is an enterprise-grade blockchain platform for building fault-tolerant digital infrastructures. As a hybrid solution, it combines enterprises, service providers, and decentralized applications in a trustless environment, leveraging the advantages of public permissioned blockchain across a wide range of business use cases.Sidechains are used for building private or hybrid infrastructures, storing metadata on the mainnet. The platform is powered by Waves Enterprise System Token (WEST), the native utility token for all network operations.● Core Logic:Enterprise-grade public and private hybrid blockchain protocols may be more easily accepted by traditional enterprises.● Key to Launch:Further support for blockchain technology from Russia, with traditional oligarchs and consortiums responding to related policies.Further popularizationExpected Valuation:Current MC FDV: 2-5M fluctuation, Expected MC FDV: 2B-5B (20-50B--- if designated by Russia)Summary:This article analyzes the long-term potential value of several projects. Some have survived through significant trials and tribulations, and others possess superior fundamentals and philosophies but lack market operation capabilities and are in need of a discerning eye. Therefore, while they have potential, it does not guarantee they will meet expectations, and they may also suffer unexpected setbacks.The global economy has not yet emerged from the mire; in fact, it can be likened to treading on thin ice where the superficial prosperity cannot mask the unresolved core flaws. Certain festering issues and malignancies have yet to be addressed, so even as the future for AI and blockchain seems bright, it's prudent for individuals and institutions to adhere to a set of personal principles.For emerging public chains like SEI, TIA, and Layer 2 solutions, as well as diverse projects like Altlayer, Manta, Dymension, Edenlayer, Zeta involving Restaking, LSD, and other novel mechanisms, the extended lock-up periods of this investment round make early valuations even more challenging to gauge. This tests the responsibility and habits of the project teams since the majority of tokens are still in their hands. If the foundation dumps early, new projects could experience significant setbacks. However, there's also the possibility of projects like TIA achieving "vintage" valuations, though such outcomes are difficult to predict swiftly.The development of the blockchain industry is expected to be relatively bright in the coming years. However, it's important to reiterate the caution stated at the beginning of this article: long-term valuations do not mean a continuous upward trend from current price points. The market could experience intense volatility, similar to a scenario where BTC suddenly drops to 1K and then rebounds to $40k, although such an event is highly unlikely. If one can maintain a healthy position in such scenarios, there should be no cause for concern.Remember not to engage in long-term commitments with high leverage. Try to avoid or minimize engagement with contracts unless for entertainment and if you possess sufficient self-discipline. Do Your Own Research (DYOR) remains the primary way to maintain a healthy investment strategy.Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment or financial advice but merely reflects the author's opinions and insights, hoping for mutual learning and progress.

Valuation Potential of iMe Messenger: Why It Has the Prospect to Reach 5-20% of Telegram's $30 Billion Valuation?Authors: SanTi Li, Naxida, Feng Yu, Li FeiyuAbstract:In the Web3 era, the functionality of messaging applications is no longer limited to information transmission. Many failures of Web3 social applications (SocialFi) stem from a lack of sustained user engagement and long-term foundation, or their core functionality merely copying existing platforms (such as borrowing from Twitter). Additionally, the integration of tokens into these platforms often lacks depth and practical utility. Social applications, once adopted by users, establish strong defensive moats, and further integrating Web3 elements such as multi-domain payments, multi-chain interaction, financial services, and decentralized applications can significantly enhance their intrinsic value.iMe Messenger (LIME), as an extension of Telegram's ecosystem, enhances and optimizes its functionality while maintaining a unique market position. This has attracted growing attention from users, investors, and institutional clients.By analyzing market trends, user demands, and the synergies between Telegram, its public blockchain TON, and iMe Messenger, this paper explores why iMe Messenger has the potential to reach 5-20% of Telegram's valuation and how it fits within the triad of TON, Telegram, and iMe to mutually enhance value.1. Market Positioning and User Value of iMe Messenger1.1 Compatibility with Telegram: Lowering User Migration and Learning CostsiMe Messenger ( LIMEUSDT LIME) is not only a standalone social application but also a Pro-version developed on top of Telegram, allowing seamless synchronization of chat history, contacts, and channels. This drastically reduces migration costs, enabling iMe to inherit Telegram's ecosystem rather than building an entirely new application from scratch.Essentially, every Telegram user can also be an iMe user, and all iMe users are inherently Telegram users.1.2 Enhanced Features for Greater User Engagement and ExperienceBuilding upon Telegram's core, iMe offers additional features such as:●Integrated Wallets: Supporting multi-chain payments and fund transfers among Telegram friends, including BSC, Solana SOLUSDT , ETH, and TON.●Translation & Content Organization: Enabling translation for personal and group chats without requiring Telegram's Star VIP subscription.●Payment and Exchange Integration: Supports Binance Pay and Uniswap's DEX functionalities.●Improved Group Features: Introduces Crypto Box, similar to WeChat's red packet and gifting features.●AI Assistant & Antivirus Protection: Enhances user experience with AI-driven features.●Latest AI Integrations: Users can directly utilize AI models like Gemini and GPT for multi-format content creation and image generation.●Enhanced Privacy: Strengthened encryption and privacy protection.●Customizable UI: More personalized interface options than Telegram, appealing to specific user demographics.These enhancements make iMe a superior choice for certain use cases compared to Telegram's native experience.Feature Telegram iMe MessengerCore Messaging ✅ ✅ + Premium AntivirusCross-Platform Sync ✅ ✅AI Translation & Speech-to-Text ✅ (VIP only) ✅ (Free via Lime token)Multi-Chain Transfers ❌ ✅ (Supports Sol, BSC,ETH, etc.)AI BOT Integration ✅ ✅ (Advanced AI models)Functional Optimization ❌ ✅ (More user-friendly UI)Payment System ❌ ✅ (Binance Pay, CryptoBox)Staking Services ❌ (Requires third-party access) ✅ (Directly accessiblein Wallet module)Telegram API Requirement ✅ (Native API) ❌ (Requires externalAPI access)Independent App Download ✅ (App Store) ✅ (App Store)2. Valuation Comparison: iMe vs. Telegram2.1 Telegram's Valuation LogicTelegram is currently valued at approximately $30 billion, primarily due to:1.A massive user base of 900 million to 1 billion with rapid growth.2.A deep ecosystem including groups, channels, Bot economy, ad revenue, and potential Web3 applications.3.TON blockchain integration, enhancing payment and application functionalities.4.An expected IPO and its role in the broader blockchain and AI landscape.Telegram's valuation is based on user scale × monetization potential × technology moat × IPO expectations, with some influence from its blockchain interactions with TON.2.2 iMe's Growth PotentialCurrently, iMe's Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is around $20 million, with 18 million users. While this is significantly lower than Telegram's 900+ million users, its interoperability with Telegram provides substantial user growth potential.Considering Web3 applications with over 10 million real registered users are rare, iMe's niche appeal could further bolster its valuation. With a 600% growth over 3.5 years, iMe has promising expansion potential.Factors contributing to iMe’s ability to achieve 5-20% of Telegram’s valuation:1.User Growth: If iMe captures 5-10% of Telegram's user base (45M-90M users), its market valuation would rise accordingly.2.Monetization Potential: Ad revenue, VIP subscriptions, Binance Pay integration, and staking services expand its financial ecosystem.3.Token Utility & Burning Mechanism: Increased usage of Lime token for payments and transactions enhances its long-term value.4.Multi-Chain Support: Since Telegram prioritizes TON, other blockchain tokens need a third-party solution—iMe fills this gap.5.TON Ecosystem Integration: iMe strengthens its value by serving as a gateway for blockchain applications within Telegram’s ecosystem.2.3 Other Reasons for the Valuation Growth Potential of iMe MessengerThere are many projects in the market with overestimated and inflated values, but it is indeed difficult to find undervalued Web3 projects. The core reasons for this mostly relate to the operational strategies of project teams over a period of time, project management styles, and the experiences and habits of personnel. There are even intricate connections with partner institutions, investors, and other stakeholders.Apart from the valuation growth potential points compared in sections 2.1 and 2.2, the hidden value and potential of the iMe project are also related to the following factors:1.iMe’s operational model primarily exists within its internal ecosystem and lacks sufficient collaboration with media, rating agencies, and third-party content platforms. This has resulted in valuable updates and the five advantages we mentioned earlier being largely unknown to many investors and enthusiasts.2.Limited collaboration with KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) in value-driven or hype-driven streams. In fact, this project was discovered as early as the end of 2021, but we waited to see if others would also identify its value and write about it. However, we found that very few people had actually created content on it. Later, after communicating with the project team, we discovered that they indeed lacked deep collaboration with content institutions and KOLs. Unlike 2018, when PR agencies were of relatively high quality—such as Block72 and Winkrypto, which had at least dozens of team members providing comprehensive support—by 2025, many so-called PR agencies consisted of just one or two individuals. This has significantly increased the difficulty for project teams in making the right choices and the probability of encountering pitfalls. This situation is as challenging as distinguishing between Dogecoin in 2020 and the tens of thousands of meme tokens emerging daily today.3.Since 2024, Lime has only gradually been listed on new exchanges. Previously, it was primarily listed on Gate, which is known for its extensive range of trading pairs but lacks significant independent AMA (Ask Me Anything) sessions or media promotion through research reports. From 2023 onwards, many major exchanges adopted a strategy of listing only entirely new projects. This strategy undoubtedly impacted a group of high-quality projects that were listed around 2021 and had successfully endured the bear market. With the recent wave of meme token promotion and the market adjustments of 2024-2025, exchange operators and traders have begun to recognize the underlying issues in purely new projects and meme-based projects.4.The team has a strong technical mindset, focusing on R&D while lacking market operation experience. This issue is not unique to iMe’s team. Even a project as robust as Algorand, which had an MIT-backed “king bomb” team, later faced operational chaos due to blind hiring of Web2 product managers who lacked experience and made misguided decisions.5.Insufficient utilization of traffic and promotional platforms. During due diligence, we found that the iMe team produces high-quality animations and content. However, these materials are often only published within their own community and Twitter. Many high-quality users are not necessarily effective disseminators—just as in real life, many exceptionally talented individuals are not good at expressing themselves or spreading information. Therefore, leveraging high-quality third-party platforms and engaging in interactive campaigns (such as writing contests) is also key to furthering brand building.In summary, the fundamental prerequisite for a project to have sufficient growth potential is that its core technology is strong and its sector and market trends are favorable. However, a lack of brand promotion and groundwork is one of the primary reasons why high-quality content goes undiscovered. This issue can be mitigated with the support of large institutions, major exchanges, or influential figures. This is also one of the main reasons why undervalued projects have room for valuation growth.3. The Impact of the TONUSDT TON Ecosystem on IME’s Valuation3.1 Growth Potential of the TON Ecosystem TONUSDTTON, as the decentralized blockchain platform officially supported by Telegram, encompasses multiple application scenarios, including DeFi and GameFi. Telegram is actively promoting the TON ecosystem.1.TON’s growth potential: TON currently has a market valuation exceeding $10 billion, and with its integration into the Telegram ecosystem, its value could potentially double in the future.2.Potential of TON payments: IME has a built-in TON wallet, gradually making it one of the most important payment and transaction gateways within the TON ecosystem. This undeniably enhances IME’s long-term product value. Although the Lime token has not yet been launched on the TON chain, this development is likely imminent.3.Binding effect between TON and Telegram: TON is poised to become the Web3 core of Telegram’s economic system. As a Telegram-compatible all-in-one development application, IME is naturally positioned to benefit from this ecosystem’s growth.3.2 Direct Impact of TON on IME’s ValuationThe expansion of the TON ecosystem means that IME is no longer just a messaging app—it is becoming a Web3 gateway. If TON’s overall valuation grows to $20 billion or beyond, then iMe, as an important Web3 entry point, will also see an increase in its valuation. TON’s decentralized payment services and smart contract capabilities, combined with iMe’s built-in multi-chain wallet, provide strong support for Telegram-based iMe users. This transforms iMe from a mere communication tool into a cross-chain financial and social platform.(This also applies to native iMe users—i.e., institutional users who directly use the iMe software without relying on the Telegram client—bringing new users to Telegram’s ecosystem and creating potential TON adopters.)Risks and ChallengesOf course, the development of iMe Messenger is not without risks. As a platform based on decentralization and blockchain technology, it faces multiple challenges similar to those of Telegram, including technical security, user privacy protection, and regulatory policies. There is also the systemic risk of Telegram suddenly ceasing API development (although such a move would be self-sabotaging for Telegram itself). Additionally, the Web3 market is highly competitive, with new products continuously emerging, exerting competitive pressure on iMe. How to ensure user privacy and security while continuously optimizing product features and enhancing user experience will be key to iMe Messenger’s future development.4. Comprehensive Summary: Factors Affecting iMe’s ValuationBased on the above analysis, iMe’s development trajectory and speed suggest that it has the potential to reach 5-10% of Telegram’s user base. The expansion and growth of iMe also contribute to the overall expansion and development of Telegram. At the same time, by leveraging the mutual benefits of the Telegram and TON ecosystems, iMe can create additional value. This enables iMe to benefit from Telegram’s strong user retention moat while positioning itself as a potential Web3 or secondary version of Telegram.From the perspectives of user base, business model, TON enablement, integrated wallet, and Lime token functionalities, IME has the potential to achieve a valuation of 5%-20% of Telegram’s estimated value, equating to a valuation of over $1.5 billion. As the Telegram ecosystem matures and the TON network further develops, iMe’s market value may continue to grow, with potential for further valuation increases.Overall, iMe LIMEUSDT Lime is not merely a secondary development software utilizing Telegram’s API. Instead, it is a Web3 social communication and payment tool with significantly stronger utility. Its valuation model is closer to a combination of Wallet + Telegram + TON + AI, making it more akin to a Web3 version of WeChat. It holds the potential to become a fully realized Web3 social application. Hopefully, it will ultimately succeed alongside Telegram.Next, we will explore the long-term value of several public blockchain networks. May the force be with you~Friendly Reminder: This article is created for research and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Web3 space is simultaneously full of opportunities and risks. We encourage readers to conduct their own research (DYOR) on every project or topic.

Valuation Potential of iMe Messenger: Why It Has the Prospect to Reach 5-20% of Telegram's $30 Billion Valuation?Authors: SanTi Li, Naxida, Feng Yu, Li FeiyuAbstract:In the Web3 era, the functionality of messaging applications is no longer limited to information transmission. Many failures of Web3 social applications (SocialFi) stem from a lack of sustained user engagement and long-term foundation, or their core functionality merely copying existing platforms (such as borrowing from Twitter). Additionally, the integration of tokens into these platforms often lacks depth and practical utility. Social applications, once adopted by users, establish strong defensive moats, and further integrating Web3 elements such as multi-domain payments, multi-chain interaction, financial services, and decentralized applications can significantly enhance their intrinsic value.iMe Messenger (LIME), as an extension of Telegram's ecosystem, enhances and optimizes its functionality while maintaining a unique market position. This has attracted growing attention from users, investors, and institutional clients.By analyzing market trends, user demands, and the synergies between Telegram, its public blockchain TON, and iMe Messenger, this paper explores why iMe Messenger has the potential to reach 5-20% of Telegram's valuation and how it fits within the triad of TON, Telegram, and iMe to mutually enhance value.1. Market Positioning and User Value of iMe Messenger1.1 Compatibility with Telegram: Lowering User Migration and Learning CostsiMe Messenger (LIME) is not only a standalone social application but also a Pro-version developed on top of Telegram, allowing seamless synchronization of chat history, contacts, and channels. This drastically reduces migration costs, enabling iMe to inherit Telegram's ecosystem rather than building an entirely new application from scratch.Essentially, every Telegram user can also be an iMe user, and all iMe users are inherently Telegram users.1.2 Enhanced Features for Greater User Engagement and ExperienceBuilding upon Telegram's core, iMe offers additional features such as:●Integrated Wallets: Supporting multi-chain payments and fund transfers among Telegram friends, including BSC, Solana, ETH, and TON.●Translation & Content Organization: Enabling translation for personal and group chats without requiring Telegram's Star VIP subscription.●Payment and Exchange Integration: Supports Binance Pay and Uniswap's DEX functionalities.●Improved Group Features: Introduces Crypto Box, similar to WeChat's red packet and gifting features.●AI Assistant & Antivirus Protection: Enhances user experience with AI-driven features.●Latest AI Integrations: Users can directly utilize AI models like Gemini and GPT for multi-format content creation and image generation.●Enhanced Privacy: Strengthened encryption and privacy protection.●Customizable UI: More personalized interface options than Telegram, appealing to specific user demographics.These enhancements make iMe a superior choice for certain use cases compared to Telegram's native experience.Feature Telegram iMe MessengerCore Messaging ✅ ✅ + Premium AntivirusCross-Platform Sync ✅ ✅AI Translation & Speech-to-Text✅ (VIP only) ✅ (Free via Lime token)Multi-Chain Transfers ❌ ✅ (Supports Sol, BSC, ETH, etc.)AI BOT Integration ✅ ✅ (Advanced AI models)Functional Optimization❌ ✅ (More user-friendly UI)Payment System ❌ ✅ (Binance Pay, CryptoBox)Staking Services ❌ (Requires third-party access)✅ (Directly accessible in Wallet module)Telegram API Requirement✅ (Native API) ❌ (Requires external API access)Independent App Download✅ (App Store) ✅ (App Store)2. Valuation Comparison: iMe vs. Telegram2.1 Telegram's Valuation LogicTelegram is currently valued at approximately $30 billion, primarily due to:1.A massive user base of 900 million to 1 billion with rapid growth.2.A deep ecosystem including groups, channels, Bot economy, ad revenue, and potential Web3 applications.3.TON blockchain integration, enhancing payment and application functionalities.4.An expected IPO and its role in the broader blockchain and AI landscape.Telegram's valuation is based on user scale × monetization potential × technology moat × IPO expectations, with some influence from its blockchain interactions with TON.2.2 iMe's Growth PotentialCurrently, iMe's Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is around $20 million, with 18 million users. While this is significantly lower than Telegram's 900+ million users, its interoperability with Telegram provides substantial user growth potential.Considering Web3 applications with over 10 million real registered users are rare, iMe's niche appeal could further bolster its valuation. With a 600% growth over 3.5 years, iMe has promising expansion potential.Factors contributing to iMe’s ability to achieve 5-20% of Telegram’s valuation:1.User Growth: If iMe captures 5-10% of Telegram's user base (45M-90M users), its market valuation would rise accordingly.2.Monetization Potential: Ad revenue, VIP subscriptions, Binance Pay integration, and staking services expand its financial ecosystem.3.Token Utility & Burning Mechanism: Increased usage of Lime token for payments and transactions enhances its long-term value.4.Multi-Chain Support: Since Telegram prioritizes TON, other blockchain tokens need a third-party solution—iMe fills this gap.5.TON Ecosystem Integration: iMe strengthens its value by serving as a gateway for blockchain applications within Telegram’s ecosystem.2.3 Other Reasons for the Valuation Growth Potential of iMe MessengerThere are many projects in the market with overestimated and inflated values, but it is indeed difficult to find undervalued Web3 projects. The core reasons for this mostly relate to the operational strategies of project teams over a period of time, project management styles, and the experiences and habits of personnel. There are even intricate connections with partner institutions, investors, and other stakeholders.Apart from the valuation growth potential points compared in sections 2.1 and 2.2, the hidden value and potential of the iMe project are also related to the following factors:1.iMe’s operational model primarily exists within its internal ecosystem and lacks sufficient collaboration with media, rating agencies, and third-party content platforms. This has resulted in valuable updates and the five advantages we mentioned earlier being largely unknown to many investors and enthusiasts.2.Limited collaboration with KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) in value-driven or hype-driven streams. In fact, this project was discovered as early as the end of 2021, but we waited to see if others would also identify its value and write about it. However, we found that very few people had actually created content on it. Later, after communicating with the project team, we discovered that they indeed lacked deep collaboration with content institutions and KOLs. Unlike 2018, when PR agencies were of relatively high quality—such as Block72 and Winkrypto, which had at least dozens of team members providing comprehensive support—by 2025, many so-called PR agencies consisted of just one or two individuals. This has significantly increased the difficulty for project teams in making the right choices and the probability of encountering pitfalls. This situation is as challenging as distinguishing between Dogecoin in 2020 and the tens of thousands of meme tokens emerging daily today.3.Since 2024, Lime has only gradually been listed on new exchanges. Previously, it was primarily listed on Gate, which is known for its extensive range of trading pairs but lacks significant independent AMA (Ask Me Anything) sessions or media promotion through research reports. From 2023 onwards, many major exchanges adopted a strategy of listing only entirely new projects. This strategy undoubtedly impacted a group of high-quality projects that were listed around 2021 and had successfully endured the bear market. With the recent wave of meme token promotion and the market adjustments of 2024-2025, exchange operators and traders have begun to recognize the underlying issues in purely new projects and meme-based projects.4.The team has a strong technical mindset, focusing on R&D while lacking market operation experience. This issue is not unique to iMe’s team. Even a project as robust as Algorand, which had an MIT-backed “king bomb” team, later faced operational chaos due to blind hiring of Web2 product managers who lacked experience and made misguided decisions.5.Insufficient utilization of traffic and promotional platforms. During due diligence, we found that the iMe team produces high-quality animations and content. However, these materials are often only published within their own community and Twitter. Many high-quality users are not necessarily effective disseminators—just as in real life, many exceptionally talented individuals are not good at expressing themselves or spreading information. Therefore, leveraging high-quality third-party platforms and engaging in interactive campaigns (such as writing contests) is also key to furthering brand building.In summary, the fundamental prerequisite for a project to have sufficient growth potential is that its core technology is strong and its sector and market trends are favorable. However, a lack of brand promotion and groundwork is one of the primary reasons why high-quality content goes undiscovered. This issue can be mitigated with the support of large institutions, major exchanges, or influential figures. This is also one of the main reasons why undervalued projects have room for valuation growth.3. The Impact of the TON Ecosystem on IME’s Valuation3.1 Growth Potential of the TON Ecosystem TONUSDT TON, as the decentralized blockchain platform officially supported by Telegram, encompasses multiple application scenarios, including DeFi and GameFi. Telegram is actively promoting the TON ecosystem.1.TON’s growth potential: TON currently has a market valuation exceeding $10 billion, and with its integration into the Telegram ecosystem, its value could potentially double in the future.2.Potential of TON payments: IME has a built-in TON wallet, gradually making it one of the most important payment and transaction gateways within the TON ecosystem. This undeniably enhances IME’s long-term product value. Although the Lime token has not yet been launched on the TON chain, this development is likely imminent.3.Binding effect between TON and Telegram: TON is poised to become the Web3 core of Telegram’s economic system. As a Telegram-compatible all-in-one development application, IME is naturally positioned to benefit from this ecosystem’s growth.3.2 Direct Impact of TON on IME’s ValuationThe expansion of the TON ecosystem means that IME is no longer just a messaging app—it is becoming a Web3 gateway. If TON’s overall valuation grows to $20 billion or beyond, then iMe, as an important Web3 entry point, will also see an increase in its valuation. TON’s decentralized payment services and smart contract capabilities, combined with iMe’s built-in multi-chain wallet, provide strong support for Telegram-based iMe users. This transforms iMe from a mere communication tool into a cross-chain financial and social platform.(This also applies to native iMe users—i.e., institutional users who directly use the iMe software without relying on the Telegram client—bringing new users to Telegram’s ecosystem and creating potential TON adopters.)Risks and ChallengesOf course, the development of iMe Messenger is not without risks. As a platform based on decentralization and blockchain technology, it faces multiple challenges similar to those of Telegram, including technical security, user privacy protection, and regulatory policies. There is also the systemic risk of Telegram suddenly ceasing API development (although such a move would be self-sabotaging for Telegram itself). Additionally, the Web3 market is highly competitive, with new products continuously emerging, exerting competitive pressure on iMe. How to ensure user privacy and security while continuously optimizing product features and enhancing user experience will be key to iMe Messenger’s future development.4. Comprehensive Summary: Factors Affecting iMe’s ValuationBased on the above analysis, iMe’s development trajectory and speed suggest that it has the potential to reach 5-10% of Telegram’s user base. The expansion and growth of iMe also contribute to the overall expansion and development of Telegram. At the same time, by leveraging the mutual benefits of the Telegram and TON ecosystems, iMe can create additional value. This enables iMe to benefit from Telegram’s strong user retention moat while positioning itself as a potential Web3 or secondary version of Telegram.From the perspectives of user base, business model, TON enablement, integrated wallet, and Lime token functionalities, IME has the potential to achieve a valuation of 5%-20% of Telegram’s estimated value, equating to a valuation of over $1.5 billion. As the Telegram ecosystem matures and the TON network further develops, iMe’s market value may continue to grow, with potential for further valuation increases.Overall, iMe LIMEUSDT Lime is not merely a secondary development software utilizing Telegram’s API. Instead, it is a Web3 social communication and payment tool with significantly stronger utility. Its valuation model is closer to a combination of Wallet + Telegram + TON + AI, making it more akin to a Web3 version of WeChat. It holds the potential to become a fully realized Web3 social application. Hopefully, it will ultimately succeed alongside Telegram.Next, we will explore the long-term value of several public blockchain networks. May the force be with you~Friendly Reminder: This article is created for research and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Web3 space is simultaneously full of opportunities and risks. We encourage readers to conduct their own research (DYOR) on every project or topic.

Time flies, nearly four years have passed since we wrote a similar article, and we feel quite satisfied as 95% of the predictions have been met. Except for Boeing, which surprisingly didn't take off, Bilibili ($19), BTC ($3800), Tiger $3, and PDD ($19) achieved the expected 5-10x growth within two years. The subsequent performances of ACH, LSE:UOS, NEAR, and ALGO provided even greater surprises with 10-80x gains.However, I continuously reflect and hope to improve my judgment since, compared to readers who directly read the articles, those of us immersed in the sea of information sometimes have our initial judgments clouded by various external factors.We prefer to express our views at relatively low or high points in advance, allowing time to silently validate these opinions. Real-time perspectives are highly attractive but also constantly at risk, demanding much energy and health. Many have faced health warnings, and we hope everyone remains healthy and happy in 2024. I lean towards identifying the start and end points, then trusting the driver and natural progression for everything in between.Returning to the topic, it has been over two and a half years since a similar article, and I will discuss a few targets and core catalysts I believe are underestimated:1.Bitcoin (BTC) BTCUSD Introduction: Born in January 2009 as a hedge against inflation after the 2008 financial crisis, BTC has experienced nearly 16 years. Its underlying logic and blockchain technology have birthed foundational blockchains like Ethereum, ADA, SOL, AVAX, CFX, and Algo. BTC's development attributes have expanded potential applications, such as Stacks and RGB protocols. My ultimate expectation for BTC is simple: it could be valued highly just as a new E-GOLD for decades to come. If its ecosystem applications further explode, it could become one of this century's leading assets.Key Catalysts: The 2024 halving, reducing block rewards to 3.125 and resulting in a yearly inflation of about 0.782%, which is lower than the inflation rates of most developed countries. The next wave of funding entering the industry could be expedited by the SEC’s approval of ETFs, the alleviation of sell pressure from Grayscale's repositioning and MGOT, and traditional financial risks causing forced rescue actions by BTC-holding companies to pass.● Expected Valuation: $200,000 MC: 4.2 trillion USD, marking the beginning of a new world, extensively unfolding application scenariosReminder: It's important to emphasize that long-term expected valuations do not imply a straight path upwards from current price points. There might be an average upward trend, but short-term intense volatility is possible. Always remember not to engage in long-term commitments with high leverage. This reminder is also placed here for additional caution.2.Telegram Ime ( LIMEUSDT Lime) & TON (TON) IntroductionIme Messenger is a special version of Telegram, integrating functionalities such as a multi-chain wallet, enabling direct transfers of various blockchain assets like BTC, ETH, AVAX, BNB, Polygon, Mantle, AVAX, etc., among Telegram friends. It incorporates features like Binance Pay, direct Google Translate in Twitter and TG conversations, and optimizes Telegram's overall layout and usability.Telegram accounts and chat histories, along with other crucial data, can be directly utilized in the Ime version of Telegram without the need for a new account. Similarly, chat histories in the IME version will automatically sync with the original Telegram version, facilitating easy switching. The Ime version essentially acts as an integrator, merging the Web3 world into the TG ecosystem, with TON leaning towards the chain ecosystem.TON is a native public blockchain ecosystem developed on top of Telegram, serving as an inherited blockchain project from TG's original project team. It introduces more development possibilities and diversity to Telegram's native ecosystem growth.● Core Logic:Within three years, the user base of the Ime version increased from 2 million to 10 million users, a 500% increase. The friendly relationship with Telegram's founding team enables seamless connection to Telegram's 700 million users. The latest multi-chain Token group red packet function uses Lime as the Gas fee, which will greatly benefit the project's operation and promotion if more convenient modes are optimized in the future. Ime's multi-chain integration feature can help project parties integrate into the Telegram ecosystem faster. Currently, LIME's FDV fluctuates between 5M and 10M, far below the valuation of many primary market projects.TON, as TG's native underlying public blockchain, ranks at the forefront in terms of operational level and market promotion. It can be directly used in the original version of TG, reducing the teaching cost. Although it doesn't support multi-chain, the wallet is a single-chain wallet in the form of a dialogue box. TON itself also has enough potential, and its FDV has surpassed $10 billion, indicating the market's expectations for Telegram.● Keys to Launch:Ime Lime:Due to the presence of many hardcore tech personnel from Russia and Ukraine, the involvement of core operational PR is needed to enhance the project's self-marketing capability.Further optimization of the TG group members' ability to freely use the red packet function to send various TOKENs as rewards to group members.More optimization of TG functionalities to be utilized.Further support and policies from Russia towards blockchain applications.TON:A more lenient regulatory stance from the SEC towards the official Telegram TON.Collaboration and output of SocialFi Killer-level projects on the chain.An increase in GameFi entering through TG as a portal.● Expected Valuation:Lime: Current MC FDV: 5.7M, Expected FDV: 33B-55BTON: Current MC FDV: MUN:10B, Expected FDV: 60B3.Conflux (CFX) CFXUSDT ● Basic Introduction:Conflux is a Layer 1 public blockchain supported by a team that includes a Turing Award winner and technical advisors from Tsinghua University's Yao Class, aimed at long-term development platforms for dApps, e-commerce, Web 3, and metaverse infrastructures. Its Tree-Graph consensus mechanism, which combines Proof of Work (PoW) and Proof of Stake (PoS) algorithms, is considered one of the most prominent purely domestic projects in my opinion.● Core Logic:Conflux's unique Tree-Graph consensus algorithm achieves high scalability and low latency, driven by a technology-focused team, ensuring smoothness and convenience comparable to high-valuation blockchain projects like SOL and ETH. It aligns quickly with the mainstream development pace of Web3, waiting only for further opening and an increase in active users to unlock significant potential. Trendy applications are gradually making their way onto CFX.● Keys to Launch:Further support and liberalization for blockchain public chain applications and the metaverse by mainland China.Further popularization of the public chain as a pilot test in China's Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan regions.More official cooperation and implementation with institutions like CITIC, Xiaohongshu, leading to the complete disappearance of traditional capital suppression.Gradual maturity of Conflux's own development and formal, successful support for BTC L2.● Expected Valuation:Current MC FDV of CFX: Fluctuating around 0.9B, Expected FDV: 36B-80B4.Opulous (OPUL) OPULUSDT ● Basic Introduction:A music RWA+DeFi project, where RWA has already achieved application cooperation with singers. Investors can participate in purchasing a portion of album rights with OPUL to earn subsequent album revenue shares from the artist. The new feature, Opulous OLOAN, creates a unique bridge between RWA and the music industry. By staking USDC in the pool, it provides funding for musicians and earns extra income on the staked USDC.OVAULT is a unique staking pool on the Opulous platform that allows you to stake USDC to access a diverse music library. This library, curated by Opulous music experts, features popular and high-performing songs. Participating in OVAULT not only grants access to this music library but also rewards, offering a way to engage with the music industry and profit from staking.● Core Logic:The company has a rich network of core music resources, with dittos being a music collaboration company of ED Sheeran, Overall, Opulous maintains a relatively leading position in market rhythm control, ranking as one of the more playful project parties on the Algorand and Arb chains. The pressure from private placements has been fully released.● Key to Launch:The further popularization of music applications, as well as the actual revenue generated by high-profit artists.● Expected Valuation:OPUL current MC FDV fluctuates around 50M-100M, with an expected FDV of MUN:10B-30B5.Bilibili (BILI) BILI ● Basic Introduction:A video creation and live streaming platform, a haven for secondary elements, and a platform concentrated with young purchasing power, which has invested in a bunch of enterprises leading to poor financial reports in recent years. Thus, the stock price has plummeted from its peak, so let's just drink to that.● Core Logic:Currently, the only platform in China that seems capable of competing with YouTube.Gaming may catch up to the era of Web3 entry points.High user stickiness, but consumer rights are currently somewhat limited to anime series.● Key to Launch:Encourage more original creative educational videos, as most Chinese videos now are summary-based, and original content is much less compared to YouTube. Activating this "wasteland" could be a significant source of revenue for Bili, as many are willing to pay for quality knowledge, but management needs to be stricter to prevent bad money from driving out good.Investments from the past two years are beginning to generate exit profits.Revise the business distribution; the current mix of live streaming and gaming services with the website is a bit odd.● Expected Valuation:Bili's current valuation: 3.8B MC FDV, with an expected valuation in 5 years of $50-100B.6.Avalanche / Polygon / Near / Algorand/ Solana AVAXUSDT BINANCE:MATICUSDT ALGOUSDT NEARUSDT SOLUSDT ● Basic Introduction:Alt-L1 is a core foundational public blockchain infrastructure. AVAX and Polygon are more akin to Ethereum's sidechains, while Sol / Near / Algo have their own underlying architectures + EVM+BTC virtual machine compatibility or stand-alone projects to enhance compatibility with Ethereum. Each public blockchain has its own unique ecosystem. In 2024, it's more suitable for each chain to be discussed separately in a comprehensive series due to their foundational architectures, which cannot be fully covered here without extending into tens of thousands of words.● Core Logic:The security of L1's underlying architecture has become increasingly refined. Although there have been debates regarding Sol's foundational security, it's undeniable that Solana has become the largest ecosystem outside of Ethereum, even leading in popularity at times. However, with the initiation of Ethereum's layering series, Ethereum's ecosystem could potentially introduce more gameplay. AVAX, SOL, and Matic are perfect examples of market rhythm mastery, with Near being average in convenience, and Algo being the least market-savvy but having the highest prestige in terms of technical strength and collaborations.The other L1s are advancing similarly, now engaging in mutual competition. After an uninteresting two years, the public chain ecosystem is finally starting to show some vitality again.● Key to Launch:After global macroeconomic black swan events are thoroughly cleared, the new era's focus will shift further towards AI, blockchain, and informational fields, increasing the exploration desire for reservoirs and funds. LSD, Restaking, Rollup, and various new DeFi gameplay will further penetrate major ecosystems, sparking new value bubbles.● Expected Valuation:Future MC FDV:AVAX: 150BSOL: 300BALGO: 60B-150B (300B--- if the team optimizes and gets designated by US policies)NEAR: 50B-100BMATIC: 80B-100B (250B--- if designated by Indian policies)7.Tiger Brokers (Tiger)● Basic Introduction:A youthful brokerage with excellent trading experience, superb data provision, and UI design, providing ample information on financial reports and data.● Core Logic:Undervalued, with virtual licenses approved. The support for compliant tokens like USDC for deposit could significantly increase trading volume and financial income.● Key to Launch:Further relaxation and support for compliant KYC by domestic policies.Overall recovery and accumulation in the financial markets.● Expected Valuation:Current FDV: 0.58B, Expected FDV: 10-20 B8.Planetswatch (Planets)● Basic Introduction:An eco-friendly project monitoring air quality through air sensors, allowing for real-time air quality data transmission via different sensor nodes in exchange for token rewards.● Core Logic:High early valuation and low circulation rate, with prices significantly dropping due to the bear market and inflation impacts, a common issue for early-stage projects with low circulation rates.● Key to Launch:Further global emphasis on environmental infrastructure, with Eco projects becoming a focal point in blockchain discussions.● Expected Valuation:Current MC FDV: 2M, Expected FDV: 20M-200M9.ContextLogic (Wish) NASDAQ:WISH ● Basic Introduction:Wish is a U.S.-based e-commerce platform founded in 2010 by former Google employee Piotr Szulczewski and former Yahoo employee Danny Zhang. Its parent company, ContextLogic Inc., is headquartered in San Francisco, USA, primarily selling inexpensive household items, clothing, jewelry, electronics, toys, etc.● Core Logic:Overhyped by consortia like Goldman Sachs in 2020, leading to a steady fall to the verge of delisting. Prices are near low, with recent market actions and promotions starting to revive.● Key to Launch:Further reliance on group buying, especially the expectation of cheap group purchases by the consumption downgrade population.Entry of new major institutions into the acquisition process.Revival in financial reports and business.● Expected Valuation:Current MC FDV: 0.1B, Expected MC FDV: 2B-10B10.Waves Enterprises (West) KUCOIN:WESTUSDT ● Basic Introduction:Waves Enterprise is an enterprise-grade blockchain platform for building fault-tolerant digital infrastructures. As a hybrid solution, it combines enterprises, service providers, and decentralized applications in a trustless environment, leveraging the advantages of public permissioned blockchain across a wide range of business use cases. Sidechains are used for building private or hybrid infrastructures, storing metadata on the mainnet. The platform is powered by Waves Enterprise System Token (WEST), the native utility token for all network operations.● Core Logic:Enterprise-grade public and private hybrid blockchain protocols may be more easily accepted by traditional enterprises.● Key to Launch:Further support for blockchain technology from Russia, with traditional oligarchs and consortiums responding to related policies.Further popularizationExpected Valuation:Current MC FDV: 2-5M fluctuation, Expected MC FDV: 2B-5B (20-50B--- if designated by Russia)Summary:This article analyzes the long-term potential value of several projects. Some have survived through significant trials and tribulations, and others possess superior fundamentals and philosophies but lack market operation capabilities and are in need of a discerning eye. Therefore, while they have potential, it does not guarantee they will meet expectations, and they may also suffer unexpected setbacks.The global economy has not yet emerged from the mire; in fact, it can be likened to treading on thin ice where the superficial prosperity cannot mask the unresolved core flaws. Certain festering issues and malignancies have yet to be addressed, so even as the future for AI and blockchain seems bright, it's prudent for individuals and institutions to adhere to a set of personal principles.For emerging public chains like SEI, TIA, and Layer 2 solutions, as well as diverse projects like Altlayer, Manta, Dymension, Edenlayer, Zeta involving Restaking, LSD, and other novel mechanisms, the extended lock-up periods of this investment round make early valuations even more challenging to gauge. This tests the responsibility and habits of the project teams since the majority of tokens are still in their hands. If the foundation dumps early, new projects could experience significant setbacks. However, there's also the possibility of projects like TIA achieving "vintage" valuations, though such outcomes are difficult to predict swiftly.The development of the blockchain industry is expected to be relatively bright in the coming years. However, it's important to reiterate the caution stated at the beginning of this article: long-term valuations do not mean a continuous upward trend from current price points. The market could experience intense volatility, similar to a scenario where BTC suddenly drops to 1K and then rebounds to 40k, although such an event is highly unlikely. If one can maintain a healthy position in such scenarios, there should be no cause for concern.Remember not to engage in long-term commitments with high leverage. Try to avoid or minimize engagement with contracts unless for entertainment and if you possess sufficient self-discipline. Do Your Own Research (DYOR) remains the primary way to maintain a healthy investment strategy.Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment or financial advice but merely reflects the author's opinions and insights, hoping for mutual learning and progress.

در حال حاضر ، هم از منظر اصول و هم تجزیه و تحلیل فنی ، ما به یک آستانه بحرانی رسیده ایم. در سطح اساسی ، وضعیت بدهی ایالات متحده ، نقدینگی محکم تر بازار و همچنین ادعاهای مربوط به مبادلات ارز دیجیتال و نشانه های مربوطه ، همه به یک مقطع مهم رسیده اند. بخش اعظم احساسات در معاملات بازار ثانویه منعکس می شود (اگرچه ممکن است تأخیر و گمانه زنی داشته باشد) ، و روندهای فعلی کاملاً این نکته را تأیید می کند. منطقه نمودار شمعدان قبلاً شکل گرفته است و فقط منتظر حرکت بعدی است. به طور تصادفی ، تورم data قرار است در سیزدهم منتشر شود ، که کاملاً کاملاً تراز شده است. BTCUSD ETHUSD SPX

1. اگر SVB مشکل ادامه یابد ، پول موسسه حیرت زده می شود ، آنها راهی جز فروش نشانه های نقدینگی یا کار روزانه ندارند ، ممکن است قیمت آن تکان بخورد. 2. اگر مشکل USDC ادامه یابد ، از یک طرف BTC ممکن است به دلیل کاهش ارزش USDC بالا برود ، اما از طرف دیگر ، BTC ممکن است به دلیل از دست دادن اعتماد به نفس در بازار کاهش یابد. 3. مشکل بدهی جهانی ، مشکلات صندوق های متقابل ، بحران نقدینگی 4. قیمت BTC ممکن است به طرز چشمگیری بالا برود ، اگر موسسات زیادی تعطیل شوند ، فدرال رزرو راهی جز کاهش علاقه یا ایجاد تورم به 20 ٪ برای صرفه جویی در اقتصاد داشت. اگر این اتفاق بیفتد ، قیمت جهانی دارایی بسیار بالا می رود. 5. سیاست چین