NoOneWhoIsSomeone

Throughout history, one can always look back and categorize a period of time such as "The Great War", "The Great Depression", "The Progressive Era", "The Gilded Age", etc. We humans do not think of the present in such terms because everything feels as it is. There is no cognitive thought that can pinpoint that we are in a historical period until we reach what is known as hindsight. A pivotal point of reflection on the past that enlightens in a way that was not previously possible. This exact dynamic is why historical data and charts are so important in not necessarily predicting the future, but by considering a calculated perception not possible without this information. So, let's use this information to our advantage. Here are just a few historical facts: ~No bear market in history ended before the recession ~No bear market in history ended with the Fed raising rates ~No bear market in history ended before the true Fed pivot ~No bear market persistent inversion was NOT followed by a recession ( US10Y-US02Y has been inverted since July) & (US10Y-US03M inverted in October). President Biden last week touted, "The US economy is expanding, and income has increased faster than inflation". Okay well, two things: First, here is a simple but impactful fact; Since the start of this year, Stock Market losses have wiped $9 Trillion from Americans' wealth https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/stock-ma... Second, if wages are growing faster than inflation ( Inflation grew exponentially in comparison to the last 40 years), then why is the data showing an immense gap between Labor costs & Corporate profits? https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-profi... Its best to see the data for yourself, but here is a snippet: Corporate profits- (2020 Q2-2021 Q4= 53.9%) & (1979-2019= 11.4%) Unit Labor Cost- (2020 Q2-2021 Q4= 7.9%) & (1979-2019= 61.8%) That is roughly a 155% difference in the WRONG direction. (Unit Labor Cost) This exact same dynamic was the main reason for the Great Depression to have happened in the first place. Corporation profits grew larger while Labor Wages vastly lagged behind. It not only led to a complete collapse of industrial spending but would condemn the economy to almost a decade of misery and mediocrity. Let's move on to arguably the most important part of the post which is the FED's preferred Recession Indicator. (US10Y-US3M). It has finally flashed a Recession warning as it has inverted for the 4th time since 2000. Each time this has happened there has been a Recession that followed. Pair this with the Energy crisis across the world which has also marked very valid Recession signals: It is also well known that the housing market holds the majority of individual wealth so let's take a peek at where it stands: This chart from a technical perspective almost guarantees a local top after housing prices soared by almost 27% following the 2020 recovery. Take a look at the RSI paired with rapid acceleration to the upside. What follows is pretty clear, at least locally. Interestingly enough, a FED Pivot / Inflation Peaking is amongst the most popular narratives being passed along and at face value it makes sense, but once you dive deeper the matter makes anything but sense. Let me explain: Here is Inflation overlayed with the FEDS Fund Rate: As you can see, not only was the FED late to the party regarding policy to fight inflation (possibly intentional due to exponential debt) but it also wasn't until Interest Rates matched the Level of Inflation was when Inflation truly peaked. This has not been met today. Furthermore, let's see what happens once the FED pivots and begins decreasing rates again: Again, if you notice when the FED began to decrease rates, the market did NOT act the way the public is expecting it to react today. It is a counterintuitive proposition because it is positive that monetary policy is more favorable but WHY is the FED decreasing rates? Most likely because of economic weakness. If the FED is hiking confidently, this means the economy is still intact and able to hold the brunt of the impact. This dynamic is missed by a great majority of market participants. One thing I want to focus on in the last chart is the 40-year trend break of monetary policy . We see this break in all charts representing yields/rates in terms of governmental sectors. For example; Here is the US10Y: Breaking a 40-Year trend As well as the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage does the exact same thing: This to me indicates we are in a historical transitional period. If this is in fact the case, this would mean we would be transitioning from the old trend to a new trend. Now let's think about what trend we have been in for the last 20 years minimum. Its been astronomical QE and endless money printing which has brought us to today. What's on the flip side of this coin?

This is going to be a very extensive post so it will take some time to fully grasp most of these concepts but I am going to try my best to explain my perspective of the current economic landscape and what implications certain factors can have going forward. First, let us look at the Original Chart in the post and explain it: As you can see I have laid out the Resistance and 3 different layers of support. One local support at ($3850) and Two long Term Supports at ($3400) & ($2850) respectively. Current Criteria: IF the price pushes past the current Resistance labeled in the chart, I expect more upside over the next few weeks to months as the market expands and ignores recession fears for now. Remember, in this scenario, markets can remain irrational FAR longer than you can remain solvent. IF the price rejects off of this Resistance, it highly suggests Local support will be tested and if that is lost then the two long-term supports will come into play. I have labeled why the price would make it there and where the sentiment would likely be in this scenario. Now let's try to understand the current Recession Delima and where we stand: Today we live in a world where the past isn't considered a measure. To be a historian today would mean you would be doubted by most, saying "This time is different", "Past performance is not indicative of future performance", "Dinosaurs didn't exist", Etc etc. Our perception of the world and the lives we live are constantly changing. This new digital Era has connected the world in ways never seen before in humanity. So inherently, the way we think, what we believe, and how we anticipate the future has changed and is ever-changing. So much so, that even the most basic understanding of an economy comes into question. Over the last week, we have seen the "Definition" of a Recession be explained in vastly different ways. To such an extent Wikipedia actually blocked any edits in relation to the actual definition. The White House has downplayed Recession fears repeatedly and we have heard Powell mention a "Strong economy" just about every time he has spoken. Let us ask ourselves this first; what were these same people saying before the snowball actually started to roll down the hill? "Inflation is transitory", "No Recession Risks". Today we find this guidance to be incredibly misleading and incorrect. "But no one could have predicted this".... Wrong. Many people saw the red flags and predicted the tailwind effects of these dynamics. Even if the ones in power ultimately know, they can never let us in on the "know". If you've ever run a company or led any kind of extensive group, there are information highways. Certain information goes to certain groups, while others are left in the dark. Think of us, the regular working-class individuals, as the group that's left in the dark. Governments are run on the base concept of the people do not know what's best for them so we created a system that we believe will lead to better decisions for the betterment of society. A real downside to this reality is that there will always be a communication deficiency between the Government and the People. This is where the strange Re-Definition of a Recession comes into play. A commonly accepted definition of a Recession is simply, Two or more Quarters of Negative GDP Prints. We have seen just that. Although this isn’t the end all be all definition, it is one check mark down. "Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter. The smaller decrease in the second quarter primarily reflected an upturn in exports and a smaller decrease in federal government spending". https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domes... But US President Biden rejected the idea that the U.S. is in a recession, and instead touted continued job growth, low unemployment, and growing investment from manufacturers. Sure these are valid reasons, but WHY is that the case? Is it from pure organic growth or is it coming after the complete shut down of an entire country for 2 years? To put the job growth into perspective, we aren't even back to 2020 Employment levels before Covid hit: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-stat... So to play their game, What exactly is the definitely of Job Growth or Strong Employment? You see, words and data can be very misleading. This is why, "Don't trust, but verify" is crucial to surviving in this world. If you're waiting on someone to give you a warning or for someone to give you the official green light on something, you'll hear about it after it's already too late. It is very likely if there is a true Recession coming, most officials won't claim it so until we are already about 25% into it. We may very well look back on today a year or two from now and think, "It was so obvious". Now that we have covered the psychological aspect of the situation, let us look at it objectively and with some charts. Here I will first show a comparison between 2000 and 2008: This shows the Price Action of both 2000 and 2008 leading up to the ultimate wipe-out of the economy. I have labeled the percentage (%) of Drawdowns relative to both the peak and the rejection off resistance. These percentages can prove important because it reflects a potentially pivotal point in which the market finds a new Fair Value. Now, if we look at our current position, you can see just how similar the Price Structure is. Price has seen a significant breakdown and then followed up with a retest of this support that has now turned resistance. I have labeled the same percentages as 2000 & 2008 just so the comparison can be made and why these levels are truly significant: We are currently seeing the retest of the lost support, which occurred both in 2000 and 2008 very similarly. Although it is not guaranteed to repeat, it is something significant to note nonetheless. Next lets look at the US10Y-US01Y which has been a signal for the last 6 Recessions, which occurs after there has been a significant Yield Inversion: (I have outlined each time we have seen the beginning of the inversion so what happens after can be perceived) If you look at the chart, you can see there has been a significant inversion after inverting for a very short time back in March. We haven’t seen an inversion of this caliber since 2000 and 2008. To further support this development, if you just look at the US10Y , you can see it has once again parabolically rallied from its sharpest drop to its strongest impulse up to reach the historical trend line: I have labeled what has occurred following this development, as well as showing SPX in relation. Pay attention to each RSI level as well. Okay? So What? You can also say there have been gains after an inversion occurred… Sure this is true, but ask yourself this, are you prepared, and do you have a well enough plan laid out to properly secure those profits when the time comes? You have to remember, timing is absolutely everything so while an Index may have a 10% rise overall if you didn’t buy the absolute bottom, that 10% would actually be more like 5% or 6% for you. Furthermore, unless you sell with the right timing, those profits are not secured. Let's lay out some quick math because this concept seems to be missed by quite a few. Let us say an index goes from 1,000 to 6,000 and generated a 500% return on your money. Great. So now why worry about just a correction when you are up 500% already? Well, here's a reason… A 50% correction from this level does NOT leave you with a 450% gain. Instead, a 50% correction subtracts 3,000 points, reducing that 500% gain to just 200%. Then the problem becomes of regaining those lost 3,000 points to recover lost profits or to cut and make sure that the last 200% profit is secured. Long story short, profits are not profits until you sell. End of story. These decisions could mean early retirement or no retirement. I know this is a really extended post but let's touch on just a few more things I deem very important. Let's take a look at the Dow Jones (DJI) and see where it stands: Here you will see a very similar approach in a few other charts below where I have labeled the Deviations from the original trend which marks a “Blow off the Top” type of event. Whenever the value is extended beyond usual terms, is when the chances of a significant reversal increase. It marked warnings for both 2000 and 2008. Next, let's look at an aspect of the Housing Market which would be the Average Sales Price of Homes sold in the US: As you can see I have once again labeled a possible Deviation. This along with the massive RSI Divergence building over a 40-year period, the “Safe Heaven” of the housing market may not be as bulletproof as most would believe. Furthermore, let's analyze the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the US: We have seen the sharpest impulse in Fixed Mortgages since 1980 and a possible break of a 40-year downtrend. What exactly would that mean for new homeowners over the next 20 years? Moving on, let's look at the VIX and what it can mean for the market: A general rule of thumb is if using the VIX as a reference, you want to look for positions when VIX is at significant resistance (Or after a parabolic rise) and you want to exit positions/use caution when VIX is at support. This is very prevalent in thinking Medium/Long term. As you can see the VIX has been steadily trending upwards since February of 2018 and I have labeled other points in time for reference. Here’s a small reference to DXY which has had a historical rally in a time that no one really expected: As you can see there has been a breakout of very important resistance, and if DXY holds strength and investors continue to value the dollar in ways not consistent in the past, liquidity will remain dry in relation. Now, let's talk about USOIL which holds a significant % in CPI changes. If Oil /Energy continues to climb here over the next few months then so will CPI . If Oil falls below its deviation zone, then CPI will likely subside for some time before any significant changes. Here is a reference to see this deviation level with respect to the SPX: I have marked every time USOIL lost this level to see possible effects. This does not mean the "Inflation Peak" narrative is one of any substance. Inflation peaking will not inherently change anything as it will take most likely Years to get Inflation down to FED target of 2%. So the actual strain of inflation on most of society will remain even despite an inflation peak. In fact, If CPI prints at 0% every single month between now and December, we will still finish 2022 with 6.3% YoY inflation . Also, in 2000 and 2008, it wasn't until after USOIL lost its deviation zone is when the worst was seen in the economy. Remember again, all those that said Inflation is "Transitory", "Controlled", and "Peaking" were all dead wrong. Remember that despite the consensus and despite leadership, the SPX Year-To-Date Performance (In Real Terms) is the WORST since 1872. That may sound extreme but check for yourself (Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg). Please keep in mind even if Markets continue to rally, DONT forget where we are and where we were. As everyone has said this would be the most anticipated Recession of all time, it will likely be when everyone either forgets about it or expects the worst is over, which is when the Recession actually hits. Stay Focused. To further understand more about the current Economy I will refer you to my last extensive post on the SPX which I will link here below: This post expands on things I do not touch on here and will give greater insight overall. Most information is complementary to each other from post to post, so the more you understand about one, the more you will understand about the other. If you've made it this far into the post I would like to Thank You immensely for taking the time to read the analysis. My goal is to expand thought and perspectives to hopefully give a greater understanding of the current situation. Please let me know if there are any questions, as I would be more than happy to answer or converse on the subject. Again, Thank you!

Bitcoin (BTC): Long and Enduring Process I've been waiting to post an update on BTC because there are dramatic developments in the space. We have finally seen the capitulation I've laid out over the last few months and now it's time to reassess. Have we reached a Long Term Bottom, is BTC headed for New All-Time Highs soon? Likely, No. Crypto for the first time in its lifetime has found itself in the middle of an Economic Crisis. Not just a crisis in one country, but the entire World. This led to LUNA's collapse, which influenced Three Arrows Capital to become insolvent, along with Celcius freezing all assets and locking all capital from anyone holding an account. You can file this down as FUD but I will remind you, that these are the industry leaders. The pioneers that were supposed to lead the evolution of Crypto, yet they chose Greed over the health of the future. These are just the ones we know about, the ripple effects will likely create waves for some time to come. There were 100's of Billions lost in this disaster. This is represented by the Total Market Cap here which has found itself on the 200W MA with an astounding 75% drawdown: And we aren't even in the "Recession" yet. Projections have grown to 50% likelihood a Recession is inevitable. To look at the situation objectively im not going to make any hard predictions, but rather, give clean criteria for short-term upside or downside for now. If you look at the chart above, I have outlined a Blue Channel that is very important for BTC . IF the price manages to close ABOVE the bottom of the Blue Channel, then Short-term upside is likely. IF the price manages to close BELOW the bottom of the Blue Channel, then Short-term downside is likely. There are two ways to draw this chart, both represent the same levels but suggest slightly different things: If you notice in this one, you can see just how bad of a spot BTC is in currently. It not only broke down from the bottom of the Decending Channel it was in, but now it is bearishly retesting this area. But again, the criteria remain the same. This is a time where things outside of Crypto are going to continue to affect the space, so if you're currently basing your perspective on just Crypto-related elements, you will find the next few months+ to be very confusing.Comment: I realize I left this post off implying that forces outside of Crypto are going to continue to weigh on the market, so I thought Id link what I meant by that. Hopefully, this gives a greater perspective:

Bitcoin (BTC): Last Long Term Support If you found yourself wondering why BTC has done nothing but chop back and forth for roughly a month now, look no further. This represents the absolute last remanence of the current uptrend. This support holding has not been my base case for BTC as I've expected the price to find itself at least to the 200W MA for quite a long time now. Something important to note is that this channel is only reliant on considering the Covid low to be a valid point on the chart. I think an argument can be made that since it was a complete Black Swan Event (Outlier) it is reasonable to take the next valid point which would be here: As you can see it paints an entirely different picture, but again, I think validity is up for interpretation here. One thing I must note which I think is very important is the comparison to previous Bull Runs. If you take a look at the chart; it shows you the strong rejection BTC had right before breaking out leading to a blow off the top (May 2021). Every cycle in the past led to a parabolic rise when this channel was broken and when this time it wasn't, the market was confused. Market makers thought they could squeeze a bit more out (which they did) since we didn't see that blow off the top and BTC bounced once again in July 2021. My overall point here is that this shows us there is real suppression in the markets. There are Cyclical Forces in the mix. Something greater than FED Policy because remember, they are only reactionary. If the market didn't force them, then they would have never acted. So they are only a pawn on a big chess board. I speak of the FED because their policy affects the stock market, which in turn affects Crypto. It seems like many don't know this, but it is the same big entities playing both markets. The same big money that front-run stocks, also (Id argue more precisely) front-run Crypto. The World Economy is in a very rough state. Between Geopolitical tensions, Supply chain issues, soaring energy prices (Gas at $5.00), Inflation still raging, Food Crisis, etc, many people's lives are truly being affected. Many people can't even properly afford to live their lives and keep a roof over their heads, not to mention the ones who are still trying to are maxing out their credit to keep up. Total Revolving Credit is historically at an all-time high (look it up). Over the last few years, there has been an unpreceded amount of crisis. The rich are able to capitalize on these opportunities and the poor get to suffer the consequences. The wealth gap we see today has never been greater in our lifetime and honestly beyond. There will be consequences to pay for this wealth gap that has completely erased the middle class. To put it simply It's been surprising to see price hold for some long in this area without breaking up or down. It shows just how much uncertainty there is. I can make a strong argument why we will not see strong long-term moves to the upside for quite some time but that is not what this post is for. That will come with a follow-up post. For now, I just want the chart to speak for itself and plead its own case without noise. While touching on a few things I consider important. I understand this is an extended post, but I think it is important to expand our perception and understand the broader fundamentals because ultimately all the dominoes fall in order. Once you understand this, seeing the big picture instead of the small one becomes easier. The last thing I'll say which I think is the most strange of all, pay attention to the bottom left of the chart. Notice that extended wick at exactly November 21, 2011? Isn't it really strange that one wick represented the exact top and bottom of this channel? Can't really wrap my head around that one. Anyways, cheers

Cardano (ADA): May Have Flown Too Close To The Sun As with Icarus, Cardano enjoyed its trip to the sun. But just as fast as the Euphoria comes, it also passes. The sentiment regarding ADA has undeniably flipped over the last year. This project went from one of the most beloved, to one of the most doubted. If the ($0. 40 ) mark indicated in the chart is lost, it is safe to say the sun has set and ADA holders will have to strap on their scuba gear. It'll be a long trip underwater.

Ethereum (ETH): More Downside To Come Clear Head & Shoulders Pattern played out very similarly to the 2018 Bear Market. The last time we saw this type of breakdown we can see the bottom wicks were very similar and did NOT suggest a bottom. The First Support is at $1450. The Second Support, if we see a World Wide Recession play out, is $460. I know that the second target seems impossible but I promise you if a World Recession plays out, it will become realistic VERY fast. For now, we just target First support. Hope this helps, Good luck!

Bitcoin (BTC): Name That Pattern This is just going to be a short-term update on BTC as we are finally seeing some structured form after the recent bloodbath. This is purely a technical setup on LTF . If you're wondering about the title, it is in reference to the Bear Flag that originally brought us here in the first place. And yet here we go again... The last thing to note here is BTC has never made a long-term bottom in this manner. I will have a follow-up analysis to support this claim. For now, just trust the trendlines in the chart. Share any thoughts down below;

Bitcoin (BTC): Be Patient Just going to leave this here as we head into the weekend. I don't claim to have a crystal ball but I'm going to go out on a limb here and say BTC simply hasn't made a long-term bottom. BTC can bounce to $34,000-$35,000. From there I'm expecting another move down to test the 200W MA or the exact middle of the Channel. Too much confluence in this area. Can't be a coincidence. This is very likely a Bear Market. Something also to note is BTC has never formed a significant bottom, closing a Daily candle like this. Both Red and not filled. The only other time I noticed this same type of candle under similar conditions was during the 2018 Bear Market: Anyways just my thoughts here, Let me know your perspectives! (Side Note): Working on an SPX and NASDAQ update, and will post them probably Sunday.

Bitcoin: BTC.D Suggests Bear Market This break-out is quite significant and realistically potentially indicates a real turning point in the market. Up until recently, it was still questionable whether BTC would find a bottom and may continue the Bull Run. But after the carnage this week and the Luna catastrophe, the market has lost all momentum. Alts are bleeding to nothing and BTC has become king again. If we simply use this chart to gauge where we are at on the Macroscale, this highly suggests we are well underway into the 2022 Bear market. Now it is important to understand the targets for the BTC Domanence as it will prove to be potential turning points. The first target being 50% and the second target being 60%. If we compare the last Bear Market in 2018, it wasn't until after BTC Dom reached 60% before it found a bottom. Now I'm not saying it has to hit 60% again this time, but I am definitely targeting 50% from here. That is the next point of interest. My Bearish sentiment doesn't just stem from Crypto, it reaches far out toward the broader stock market and enormous macro headwinds. I can't possibly explain it all in this post to keep everyone's attention but if you check back through my previous posts, there are soo many Gems to learn from to navigate this environment. Now is the time to LEARN and grow your knowledge so you can benefit from all this chaos later on. Now is when success is made, not at the top of the Bull Run. Let me know if you have any questions!

Bitcoin Dominance Suggests Bear Market This break-out is quite significant and realistically potentially indicates a real turning point in the market. Up until recently, it was still questionable whether BTC would find a bottom and may continue the Bull Run. But after the carnage this week and the Luna catastrophe, the market has lost all momentum. Alts are bleeding to nothing and BTC has become king again. If we simply use this chart to gauge where we are at on the Macroscale, this highly suggests we are well underway into the 2022 Bear market. Now it is important to understand the targets for the BTC Domanence as it will prove to be potential turning points. The first target being 50% and the second target being 60%. If we compare the last Bear Market in 2018, it wasn't until after BTC Dom reached 60% before it found a bottom. Now I'm not saying it has to hit 60% again this time, but I am definitely targeting 50% from here. That is the next point of interest. My Bearish sentiment doesn't just stem from Crypto, it reaches far out toward the broader stock market and enormous macro headwinds. I can't possibly explain it all in this post to keep everyone's attention but if you check back through my previous posts, there are soo many Gems to learn from to navigate this environment. Now is the time to LEARN and grow your knowledge so you can benefit from all this chaos later on. Now is when success is made, not at the top of the Bull Run. Let me know if you have any questions!