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On Wednesday (June 11), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, showing lower-than-expected inflationary pressures. The overall CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the market's expectation of 0.2%, and rose 2.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than the expected 2.5%, but higher than 2.3% in April. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.1% month-on-month and remained flat at 2.8% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 2.9%. . .The mild data, coupled with concerns raised by Trump's tariff remarks, triggered a sharp market reaction, and investors quickly adjusted their expectations of the Fed's policy and their judgments on asset price trends. This article will analyze the market's immediate reaction, compare the interpretations of institutions and retail investors on the X platform, and assess future trends. . .Market background and immediate reactionBefore the release of the CPI data, market sentiment was tense, and investors paid close attention to whether inflation accelerated due to Trump's tariff remarks. CPI, employment data and PCE are key macro indicators, and the U.S. stock index may be close to a turning point. If the CPI exceeds 2.5% year-on-year, the expectation of a rate cut in 2025 may be shattered; if it is lower than 2.4%, it may be temporarily beneficial to risky assets. These views show that market expectations fluctuate, and generally tend to favor CPI slightly higher than expected (2.5%), as tariffs may push up prices. . .The actual data was mild, triggering a rebound in risk appetite. The U.S. stock market rose rapidly, with the Nasdaq index rising more than 1% after the release, reflecting optimism about easing inflation. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 2.6 basis points to 4.45%, indicating that market concerns about continued inflation have eased. The U.S. dollar index fell about 40 points in the short term to 98.6279 as traders lowered their expectations for the hawkish Fed. Precious metals performed strongly, with spot gold rising 1.13% to $3,360.05/ounce and the main COMEX gold futures contract rising 1.15% to $3,381.70/ounce. Spot platinum broke through $1,260/ounce, up 3.74%. The main contract of NYMEX crude oil futures rose 2.11% to $66.35 per barrel, despite a 3.5% year-on-year decline in energy CPI. . .European markets also turned to risk appetite, with eurozone stocks rising and German 10-year government bond yields rising slightly by 0.5 basis points to 2.53%, but 2-year yields fell by 2 basis points to 1.84%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 0.56 points to 16.39, the lowest since February 21, reflecting the easing of market tensions. . .Interpretation of institutions and retail investorsAfter the release of CPI data, institutional and retail investors had different views. Institutional analysis is more rational, focusing on Fed policy and long-term inflation trends. The lower-than-expected CPI reinforced expectations of two interest rate cuts in 2025, and the market's pricing for the rate cut in the next year has increased from 67 basis points to 77 basis points, which is good for the stock and bond markets. Another agency acknowledged that the data was mild, but warned that tariffs in the second half of 2025 could push up inflation, and suggested paying attention to US policy uncertainty. . .The reaction of retail investors was mixed with surprise and caution. Some investors were surprised by the soft data, believing that the market's previous expectations of 0.1% month-on-month CPI and core CPI were too pessimistic, but doubted whether the rising trend could continue, as the tariff effect could push up prices. Some investors also mentioned the "hidden dangers" of limited BLS data collection, believing that inflation may be underestimated, echoing reports of BLS staff shortages (reduced by at least 15%). It is believed that although the data is favorable for expectations of interest rate cuts, policy or geopolitical changes may trigger sharp fluctuations in asset prices. . .Compared with before the release, market sentiment has shifted from concerns about high inflation to balanced discussions. Before the release, retail investors were worried that high CPI would suppress expectations of interest rate cuts, while institutions expected a moderate upward trend. The mild data reversed this trend, and institutions were more optimistic about interest rate cuts, while retail investors questioned the sustainability of the rise. . .The impact of Fed policy and market dynamicsThe May CPI data reinforced the Fed's cautious stance. Both the headline CPI (2.4%) and the core CPI (2.8%) were above the 2% target but below expectations, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% at its June meeting. Real weekly wages rose 1.5% year-on-year and hourly wages rose 1.4%, indicating stable consumer purchasing power, reducing pressure for an immediate rate cut. However, the market's pricing of a 77 basis point rate cut by mid-2026 (about two 25 basis point rate cuts) reflects confidence in the Fed's shift to easing, especially when tariffs have not yet significantly increased inflation. . . .Retailers stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, delaying the price transmission effect. Data show that retailers such as Walmart have begun to raise prices, and inflation is expected to rise in the second half of 2025. BLS resource shortages (suspending CPI data collection in three cities and planning to stop publishing about 350 PPI indices from August) have raised concerns about data reliability, which may further disrupt market expectations. . . .The rise in precious metals reflects the market's safe-haven demand for geopolitical risks such as tariff rhetoric and the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The decline in the US dollar is consistent with the reduction of inflation concerns, while the rise in crude oil prices is driven by supply-side factors. The Nasdaq, led by technology stocks, benefited from easing expectations, but the VIX fell to a multi-month low, indicating that the market may be too optimistic and external shocks may trigger a correction. . .Future OutlookLooking ahead, the market faces a delicate balance. The mild CPI provides breathing space for risky assets, but the risk of tariffs pushing up inflation remains. Well-known institutions expect inflation to be close to 3% in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 as retailers gradually pass on costs. If the PCE data continues the CPI trend, expectations for rate cuts may be suppressed. Geopolitical and policy uncertainties such as the situation between Russia and Ukraine and tariff rhetoric may exacerbate volatility in commodity and currency markets. . .In the short term, risk appetite is dominant, and stocks and precious metals may continue to rise unless PCE or employment data unexpectedly rise. The bond market reacted mildly, and the stability of Treasury yields shows that investors are still skeptical about the continued decline in inflation. Retail price trends and BLS data quality need to be closely monitored. If the market believes that inflation is underestimated, confidence may be damaged. . .In short, the May CPI data injected short-term optimism into the market, driving up risk assets and reinforcing expectations of rate cuts. However, tariff rhetoric, geopolitical risks and data reliability issues mean that volatility will remain the main theme in 2025. . . XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD

On Tuesday (June 10), spot gold rebounded slightly from around 3,300 during the session, and maintained a sideways consolidation pattern in the European session, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Traders focused on the second day of high-level talks between major economies in London, waiting for more clear signals to determine the direction of the next stage. At the same time, the strong non-farm data in the United States last week pushed the dollar to rebound, suppressing gold prices. However, the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the future, and the escalation of the geopolitical situation has provided some support for gold. . .Fundamental analysis: 👇👇👇👉The current trend of gold is constrained by multiple macro factors. On the one hand, the strong US non-farm payrolls data reduced the probability of the Fed's immediate interest rate cut this year, boosting the US dollar in the short term and suppressing non-yielding assets such as gold. At the same time, as the US Treasury yields rebounded in stages, it also put pressure on gold prices.👉On the other hand, the market still holds strong expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut path in 2025. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently expect the probability of a rate cut in September to be close to 60%. In addition, the poor fiscal situation and expanding deficits in the United States still cause long-term inflation concerns in the market, increasing the demand for gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation properties.👉In terms of geopolitics, Reuters reported that Russia's large-scale attack on Ukraine once again ignited market risk aversion, which also limited the downward space of gold prices to a certain extent.Technical side: 👇👇👇👉From the daily chart, spot gold is currently maintaining a consolidation near the middle track of the Bollinger band. The narrowing of the Bollinger channel shows that the market volatility continues to compress, and the market has entered a "Bollinger band squeeze" state, suggesting that the window for a change is approaching.👉The K-line combination is characterized by a continuous small real candlestick line, with a gradually narrowing volatility, a typical sideways pattern, and the price repeatedly saws around 3330. The Bollinger middle rail (3307.22) provides some support, and the Bollinger upper and lower rails are located at 3424.72 and 3189.73 respectively, forming a short-term range.👉The key support level can be seen at the 3250 mark, which corresponds to the previous consolidation platform and the structure below the Bollinger middle rail. If it falls below, it may trigger a further decline to the 3189 area. The upper resistance is concentrated at 3380 and 3425. The latter is the overlapping area of ​​the Bollinger upper rail and the previous high. If it breaks through, it is expected to open up room for growth.👉In terms of MACD indicators, DIFF and DEA continue to stick together, and the histogram oscillates close to the zero axis. There is a lack of momentum guidance, and the trend is not clear yet. The RSI indicator hovers around 53, which is also in a neutral to strong area, indicating that market sentiment has not yet reached extremes.👉Overall, gold is in a typical "consolidation market", and traders are concerned about whether the direction selection is triggered by news.Market sentiment observation: 👇👇👇🤩🤩🤩The market is currently in a state of high alert, with technical graphics and fundamentals forming an intertwined influence. On the one hand, traders still have hope for the future path of the Fed's interest rate cuts, which makes bargain-hunting buying power still exist; on the other hand, the strong performance of non-agricultural data has caused some funds to wait and see, waiting for two key inflation data, CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday, to judge the Fed's policy trends.In addition, the steady performance of risk assets has limited the large inflow of safe-haven funds into gold. Risk preference and risk aversion are intertwined, making gold lack clear trend momentum in the short term.Outlook for the future: 👇👇👇🤩🤩🤩Short-term outlook: 👇👇👇🤩🤩🤩In the short term, gold may continue to maintain a consolidation structure, and the market will wait for the results of inflation data to be oriented again. Analysts believe that if CPI weakens and the Fed's expectations of rate cuts increase, gold prices may break through the 3380 line; if the data is strong, we need to be wary of a retracement below the Bollinger middle track to the 3250 area.Medium- and long-term outlook: 👇👇👇🤩🤩🤩In the medium and long term, analysts believe that gold still has the macro logic of buying low and deploying medium-term long positions against the backdrop of the Fed's expectations of an easing cycle and the failure of US fiscal pressure to substantially ease. The continued escalation of geopolitics also constitutes medium-term support, but traders are wary of the linkage between US bond yields and the US dollar index. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

On Monday (June 9), spot gold (XAU/USD) once fell below the important mark of $3,300. Boosted by factors such as the dollar correction, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the intensification of geopolitical tensions, it rebounded to around $3,328 during the day. However, due to the cooling of the Fed's expectations for rate cuts this year, the bullish momentum is insufficient, the rebound is limited, and the overall European session remains in a range consolidation pattern.Fundamental analysis:The market is playing a game around the direction of the Fed's policy. Although the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in May was 139,000, higher than the expected value of 130,000, the revised 147,000 from the previous value did not significantly boost the dollar. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage growth rate was 3.9%, which was also slightly higher than market expectations. The overall performance of the data was solid, which weakened the possibility of a rapid rate cut this year.At the same time, the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit and the decline in U.S. Treasury yields suppressed the U.S. dollar. In addition, the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza continued, providing safe-haven support for gold, but the impact was limited and failed to push prices to break through the upper resistance.Technical aspects:From the daily chart, spot gold has been fluctuating and bottoming out since the high of $3499.83. The current Bollinger Bands are in a sideways narrowing pattern, with the upper track at $3424.13 and the lower track at $3189.53. The middle track of the Bollinger Bands is at $3306.83, and the gold price is fluctuating around the middle track.The daily K-line shows that in recent days, there have been many small positive and small negative staggered real K-lines, indicating that the forces of both long and short sides are balanced, and it is currently in a typical box oscillation range (US$3250-3380). The short-term support level is at $3250. If it is lost, it will drop to the lower track of the Bollinger Band at $3189; the upper resistance is concentrated at $3380, and it is expected to test the April high area again after breaking through.The MACD indicator shows that the DIFF line and the DEA line are running above the zero axis, and the bar chart changes alternately between red and green, and the momentum shows a continuous convergence trend. This pattern indicates that the trend direction is unclear. The current market structure is a typical oscillating market with a lack of clear trend drivers. Analysts believe that if the subsequent gold price fails to effectively break through the middle track of the Bollinger Band and continue to rise, it is necessary to be vigilant about the accelerated downward risk after the MACD crosses downward.RSI (14) remains at 51.59, which is in the neutral area and has not yet entered the overbought or oversold range. It also supports the current state of oscillating consolidation. RSI has failed to form a new high for many days, suggesting that the market's buying power is limited and the bullish momentum is insufficient. If it falls below the key level of 50, it may indicate that the short-term bearish trend will be further clarified.Market sentiment observation:Currently, the gold market sentiment is in a cautious neutral state. The US dollar index is under pressure due to the US fiscal health issues and the downward trend of US Treasury yields, but the non-agricultural data has suppressed the Fed's expectations of a rapid interest rate cut this year. Although risk aversion still exists, it has not formed enough synergy to push up gold. The market is cautiously optimistic about the prospects of high-level negotiations between important economies, while being vigilant about the sudden fluctuations that may be caused by geopolitical risks. Overall, the short-term market lacks clear driving factors, and traders are cautious and tend to operate in a range.Market outlook:Short-term outlook:Gold prices rebounded quickly after losing the key support of $3,300, indicating that there is still strong buying support below. Currently, traders focus on the Bollinger middle rail of $3,306. If gold prices stand above it and break through $3,380 with large volume, it will open up room for rebound and further test the $3,420-3,450 area. On the contrary, if it falls below $3,250, it is necessary to be vigilant about the technical retracement to the Bollinger lower rail of $3,189.Medium- and long-term outlook:Analysts believe that in the context of global geopolitical conflicts, the expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, and the uncertainty of the monetary policy shift cycle, the medium- and long-term logic of gold is still supported. However, before the Fed's expectation of maintaining a "high interest rate for longer" policy is loosened, the path of gold's rebound may be tortuous, and it needs to rely on geopolitical or US dollar fluctuations to trigger trend market conditions. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

(June 9) In the early Asian session, spot gold rose slightly and is currently trading around $3,307.62 per ounce. The large-scale riots in Los Angeles, USA, attracted some safe-haven buying to support gold prices.On the afternoon of June 8, local time, police officers from the Los Angeles Police Department in California, USA, wearing riot gear, withdrew after confronting protesters near the Edward Roybal Federal Building. At about the same time, the Los Angeles Police Department announced that the city was on tactical alert, allowing supervisors to keep police officers on duty in the event of an emergency or major incident and maintain a high level of staffing. It is reported that such alerts are intended to authorize police officers to work overtime.Gold price performance last weekIn the past week, gold prices rose and fell. Affected by factors such as geopolitical concerns, spot gold rose nearly 3% to around 3,380 on Monday (June 2) last week, and fluctuated in the following trading days. Due to poor performance of US economic data, it once rose to $3,402/ounce on Thursday (June 6), but with optimistic news about the international trade situation, gold prices began to give up gains. As non-agricultural data was stronger than market expectations, spot gold fell 1.22% last Friday to close at $3,311.86/ounce, with a weekly increase of about 0.65%.The US dollar rose 0.47% against other major currencies last Friday to 99.20, as data showed that US employment growth in May was better than expected, although the growth rate slowed down from the previous month, indicating that the Federal Reserve may wait longer before cutting interest rates. This factor is also one of the reasons for the decline in gold prices last Friday.Data from the U.S. Labor Department showed that employers added 139,000 jobs in May, fewer than the 147,000 in April, but more than the 130,000 increase predicted by a survey of economists.The dollar has been weighed down by President Trump's tariff policy and uncertainty about the prospects for negotiations with trading partners including China, the bill being considered by the U.S. Senate after the House passed the deficit spending and tax bill, and the trajectory of recent economic data, said Eugene Epstein, head of North American structures at Moneycorp.But Epstein said the market began to reverse some short positions on the dollar after stronger-than-expected economic data, including the employment data.After the data was released, financial markets bet that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates until September, and the probability of a September rate cut fell from 88% to 60%, with a total of two rate cuts in 2025, cutting bets on a possible third rate cut.In the coming week, the market will usher in major trade consultations and heavyweight U.S. CPI data, which investors need to pay close attention to.Kitco SurveyThe survey shows that Wall Street analysts are divided on the outlook for gold prices, while ordinary investors have become more optimistic as gold prices hold key support levels.Last week, 14 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and Wall Street analysts have a large analysis of the future trend of gold. 50% (7 experts) expect gold prices to rise in the next week, 43% (6) expect a fall, and 7% (1) believe that gold prices will consolidate.Meanwhile, the Kitco online poll received 256 votes, and Main Street (retail investors) is more optimistic about the future after gold prices hold their ground. 66% (169) retail traders expect gold prices to rise in the next week, 15% (39) expect a fall, and 19% (48) believe that gold prices will continue to consolidate.Summary of analyst viewsBullish camp:Rich Checkan (Asset Strategies): Momentum is good for gold and silver. Despite possible profit-taking, gold prices are expected to rise in the coming week due to a weaker dollar, a stalled peace process in Ukraine in the Middle East, the continued impact of tariffs, and awareness of the U.S. Senate bill (increasing debt, monetary expansion and inflation).Adrian Day (Adrian Day Asset Mgmt): North American investors are willing to buy gold again (although not in large quantities), and the trend is changing.Darin Newsom (Barchart): There may be setbacks in the short term, but gold remains a safe haven for central banks and long-term investors.Jim Wyckoff (Kitco): Safe-haven demand remains, and technical charts remain bullish.Bearish camp:Adam Button (Forexlive): The White House shows signs of reaching an agreement. Gold is currently a proxy for the trade war, and the announcement of the agreement may trigger a mild sell-off.Marc Chandler (Bannockburn): Slightly better employment data and expected strong U.S. CPI in May may support a stronger dollar, and gold prices may be under pressure to fall below $3,300.Neutral/cautious view:Kevin Grady (Phoenix Futures): The decline on Friday seemed like conventional profit taking. The market is mainly dominated by speculators, and there is little interest in holding positions. Investors are waiting for direction (pay attention to CPI, trade agreements, and bond yields in the next week). If CPI approaches 2%, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points this summer (energy prices are the key to inflation).Sean Lusk (Walsh Trading): The employment report is okay, easing recession concerns, boosting the dollar and bond yields, and suppressing gold prices. There are doubts about the attractiveness of the current gold price level (strong stock market). Although geopolitical risks exist, short selling on the weekend should be cautious. If key support is lost (such as $3294-3287, especially the May low of $3150), gold prices may fall sharply. Be cautious at the end of the month and the end of the quarter, and bulls need new momentum.Focus of the week: China-US trade negotiations, inflation dataAfter a week of intensive employment data, the focus this week shifted to inflation data, and key price stability indicators will be released one after another:Monday (June 9): US New York Federal Reserve 1-year inflation expectations in May. In addition, at the invitation of the British government, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will visit the UK from June 8 to 13. During this period, the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will be held with the US side. Investors need to pay close attention.In addition, US federal law enforcement officers continued to search for illegal immigrants in many places in Los Angeles County on the 7th, and had serious conflicts with local community residents for the second consecutive day. Investors also need to pay attention to the impact of market sentiment.Law enforcement officers from federal agencies such as the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) searched for illegal immigrants on the 6th, raided at least 7 locations in Los Angeles, including shopping malls and factories, and arrested 44 people. During the operation, law enforcement officers were surrounded by local community residents and continued to have physical conflicts.On June 7, local time, U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth said on social media that the protests in Los Angeles are a huge national security risk, and the U.S. Department of Defense is mobilizing the National Guard to Los Angeles to support federal law enforcement officers. If the violence continues, the active Marines will also be mobilized, "they are on high alert."On June 7, U.S. President Trump ordered the deployment of the National Guard to Los Angeles, California, to deal with the riots caused by the local search for illegal immigrants. This decision triggered a domestic backlash, and the Democratic Party called it "deliberate incitement" of tensions.On June 8, local time, it was learned that the first batch of members of the California National Guard had arrived in downtown Los Angeles before 4 a.m. on the 8th. The Los Angeles Police Department issued a statement on the same day saying that the protests that occurred during immigration enforcement on the evening of the 7th had "ended peacefully" and no accidents occurred during the period. The police will continue to remain on high alert to deal with potential riots.At noon on the 8th, local time, dozens of protesters clashed with the National Guard deployed in front of the federal law enforcement agency in downtown Los Angeles, USA. Reporters saw at the scene that the National Guard kept firing tear gas to try to disperse the protesters, but the number of protesters was increasing.On June 8, local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Real Social" that Los Angeles has been "invaded and occupied" by illegal immigrants and criminals, and violent insurgents have gathered and attacked federal agents in an attempt to hinder the government's deportation operations. Trump instructed officials such as Secretary of Homeland Security Noem, Secretary of Defense Hegseth and Attorney General Bondi to work with relevant departments and agencies to take all necessary actions to "liberate Los Angeles from the invasion of immigrants and end these immigrant riots." Trump emphasized that order will eventually be restored, illegal immigrants will be deported, and Los Angeles will regain "freedom."Wednesday (June 11): US May CPI (Consumer Price Index) - Revealing the Fed's willingness to adjust interest rates.Thursday (June 12): US May PPI (Producer Price Index) and weekly initial jobless claims.Friday (June 13): University of Michigan June consumer confidence preliminary value (the index's inflation expectations have risen significantly for two consecutive months).Pay attention to the situation in Russia and UkraineIt is worth mentioning that the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine still needs attention.According to a Reuters report on the 7th, anonymous US officials revealed that the United States believes that Russia's retaliation for Ukraine's drone attack on a Russian military airport on May 31 has not yet been truly implemented. According to information disclosed by US officials, Russia's retaliation may be a major, multi-pronged blow.Sources said that the timing of Russia's comprehensive response is unclear and is expected to be implemented within a few days. Earlier on the 6th, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that in response to Ukraine's "terrorist acts", the Russian army launched a large-scale attack on Ukrainian targets.According to a recent report by the US "Washington Post", a source revealed that the Ukrainian National Security Agency had considered sending unmanned boats hidden in containers to attack Russian ships at sea. But so far they have not launched these operations.Another person familiar with the matter speculated that Russia may use missiles and drones to launch attacks. A Reuters source in the Western diplomatic community said that Russia's retaliation may target important targets, such as government buildings.Military analyst Michael Kaufman believes that Moscow may try to strike the headquarters of the Ukrainian Security Service, which played a key role in Operation Spider Web, or the offices of other regional intelligence agencies, and may use medium-range ballistic missiles to carry out the attack. XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

https://www.tradingview.com/x/dtAigcf8/With the May U.S. employment report set to be released on Friday (June 6), global investors and economists are once again focusing on the latest developments in the U.S. labor market. This report will not only reveal the current health of the U.S. economy, but may also provide important clues for future monetary policy and economic trends. The importance of this report is even more prominent as the U.S. labor market is showing initial signs of slowing down amid increasing uncertainty in the global trade environment.Initial signs of a slowdown in the labor marketThe U.S. labor market has recently shown signs of weakness, and the latest data provides evidence of this trend. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits climbed to 247,000 last week, the highest level in seven months. The rise in this number indicates that some workers are losing their jobs and companies are becoming more cautious about hiring new employees. In addition, unofficial statistics from the private sector further show that companies' willingness to hire is gradually declining, which is closely related to the uncertainty brought about by the rapidly changing tariff policy. The new tariff policy has caused companies to worry about future profitability and market environment, thereby slowing down the pace of expansion.Rising layoffs and cautious corporate mentalityIn addition to the increase in the number of first-time unemployment claims, Challenger, Gray & Christmas' monthly survey report provides more evidence of the weakness of the labor market. The report shows that the number of layoffs in the United States reached 94,000 in May 2025, a significant increase from 64,000 in the same period last year, an increase of nearly 47% year-on-year. More worryingly, the number of layoffs in American companies has surged by 80% this year compared with the same period last year. This trend reflects that companies tend to respond to potential economic risks by cutting labor costs when facing policy uncertainties. However, as Don Rissmiller, an economist at research firm Strategas, pointed out, despite the increase in layoffs, companies have not yet taken large-scale layoffs, but have more suspended recruitment plans, which has made it significantly more difficult for workers to find new job opportunities.Differences between ADP report and official dataADP's monthly employment survey provides another perspective for the market. Data showed that only 37,000 new jobs were added in the private sector in the United States in May, the lowest increase in more than two years in the report. Although many economists believe that there is a certain deviation between the predictive power of the ADP report and official labor market data, this sluggish figure undoubtedly reinforces market concerns about the weakness of the labor market. Rees Miller said that the current data shows that there are "small cracks, not big cracks" in the labor market, suggesting that the economy has not yet fallen into a serious recession, but the growth momentum is weakening.Expectations and differences in the May employment reportAccording to a survey of analysts by the Wall Street Journal, the market generally expects the U.S. Department of Labor to release the May employment report to show 125,000 new jobs, lower than the average increase of 155,000 in the previous three months. At the same time, analysts expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, partly due to the reduction in net immigration during the Trump administration, which has limited the supply of the labor market. However, Jonathan Millar, a U.S. economist at Barclays, has a different view. He predicts that the number of new jobs in May will reach 150,000, citing the sharp increase in U.S. imports earlier this year and the accumulation of corporate inventories that have not yet been fully affected by the new tariff policy. Miller pointed out that these inventories will be gradually consumed in the future, which may put pressure on subsequent economic activity and the job market.The delicate game between the Fed's policy and economic balanceOver the past year, the U.S. labor market has experienced a process from weakening in the first half of the year to gradually stabilizing, with the unemployment rate fluctuating between 4% and 4.2%. For the Fed, the current employment situation seems to be in a state of balance, which is also an important basis for its decision to suspend interest rate cuts this year after a cumulative interest rate cut of one percentage point in the last few months of 2024. However, this balance is not stable. Barclays' Miller said that despite the difficulties faced by companies, most still tend to avoid layoffs, which provides a certain resilience to the labor market. But he also warned that as inventories are gradually digested and the impact of tariff policies gradually emerges, the labor market may face greater pressure in the future.Analysis of the impact on the US dollar and gold pricesOn the whole, the upcoming May employment report will become an important indicator for the market to judge the direction of the US economy. If the report shows that the number of new jobs is significantly lower than expected, it may further exacerbate market concerns about the slowdown of the US economy, thereby exerting downward pressure on the US dollar. Weak employment data may trigger the market to reassess the Fed's future monetary policy and may even rekindle expectations of interest rate cuts, which will weaken the attractiveness of the US dollar.For gold prices, a weak labor market is usually good for gold as a safe-haven asset. If the employment report performs poorly, coupled with the impact of global economic uncertainty and tariff policies, investors may increase their allocation to gold, pushing up gold prices. However, if the report shows that the labor market is more resilient than expected, the US dollar may be supported and gold prices may face short-term correction pressure. In general, the May employment report is not only a "big test" for the US labor market, but also an important turning point for the global financial market. Investors need to pay close attention to the results of the report and the market reaction it triggers to grasp the future trend of the US dollar and gold prices. 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قیمت لحظه‌ای طلا در طول روز در حدود 3380 دلار معامله شد، که فاصله چندانی با بالاترین سطح چند هفته‌ای روز سه‌شنبه ندارد. در حال حاضر، بازار در انتظار گزارش حقوق و دستمزد غیرکشاورزی ایالات متحده (U.S. non-farm payrolls) در حاشیه قرار دارد و گاوهای طلا همچنان منتظر شکست زیر حمایت عوامل بنیادی هستند. عوامل بنیادی 👇 آخرین داده‌های اقتصادی منتشر شده توسط ایالات متحده در مجموع ضعیف بود و حمایت کوتاه‌مدتی از طلا به عمل آورد. گزارش اشتغال ADP نشان داد که تنها 37000 شغل جدید توسط شرکت‌های خصوصی در ایالات متحده در ماه می ایجاد شده است که پایین‌ترین رقم از مارس 2023 است. در عین حال، شاخص PMI خدمات ISM به طور غیرمنتظره‌ای به 49.9 سقوط کرد و برای اولین بار از ژوئن سال گذشته وارد محدوده انقباضی شد. تضعیف هم اشتغال و هم بخش خدمات (service) باعث تقویت انتظارات بازار مبنی بر اینکه فدرال رزرو در سال 2025 نرخ بهره را بیشتر کاهش داد، شده است. در همین حال، بازده اوراق قرضه خزانه‌داری ایالات متحده (U.S. Treasury yields) کاهش یافت و بازده اوراق دو ساله و ده ساله به پایین‌ترین سطح از اوایل ماه می رسید که نشان دهنده پذیرش مسیر آتی تسهیل سیاست‌های پولی است. افزایش کسری بودجه و نگرانی‌های بازار در مورد دور جدید کاهش مالیاتی ترامپ نیز بر دلار فشار وارد کرده و جذابیت دارایی‌های بدون بهره مانند طلا را بیشتر کرده است. علاوه بر این، ریسک‌های ژئوپلیتیکی جهانی نیز در حال افزایش است. به گزارش رویترز، وضعیت در اوکراین بهبود نیافته است و ایالات متحده برای پنجمین بار پیشنهاد سازمان ملل برای آتش‌بس در غزه را وتو کرده است که تقاضای پناهگاه امن برای طلا را در سطح بالایی حفظ کرده است. قبل از گزارش حقوق و دستمزد غیرکشاورزی روز جمعه، بازار عموماً محتاط بود و نیروهای خرید و فروش به طور موقت در حال کشمکش بودند. جنبه فنی: 👇🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 از نمودار روزانه، طلا در حال حاضر بین خطوط میانی و بالایی باندهای بولینگر در نوسان است و هنوز در مرحله تثبیت روند صعودی قرار دارد. پس از عبور از 3300 دلار، قیمت به طور موقت در 3430 دلار متوقف شد، که منطقه اوج قبلی و مقاومت کوتاه‌مدت مربوط به خط بالایی باندهای بولینگر است. تحلیلگران بر این باورند که اگر حجم معاملات بعدی از 3430 دلار عبور کند، انتظار می‌رود دوباره اوج 3499.83 دلار را به چالش بکشد. از نظر شاخص‌های MACD، خط سریع (DIFF) و خط کند (DEA) بالاتر از محور صفر هستند و یک تقاطع طلایی ملایم را نشان می‌دهند و نمودار هیستوگرام (histogram) کمی قرمز می‌شود و حرکت (momentum) شروع به اصلاح می‌کند، که نشان می‌دهد احتمال تقویت بیشتر در کوتاه‌مدت وجود دارد. شاخص قدرت نسبی (RSI) در حال حاضر در حدود 58 در نوسان است و هیچ سیگنال خرید بیش از حد (overbought) وجود ندارد، که نشان می‌دهد احساسات بازار نسبتاً خنثی و صعودی است و فضایی برای افزایش‌های بعدی باقی می‌گذارد. از نظر ساختار کلی، طلا یک الگوی نوسانی جعبه‌ای شکل واضح را نشان می‌دهد، با سطح حمایت که به سطح 3300 دلار اشاره دارد و سطح مقاومت که بر سطح 3430 دلار متمرکز است. هنگامی که این سطح شکسته شود، انتظار می‌رود فضای بالایی بیشتر باز شود. مشاهده احساسات بازار 👇 احساسات فعلی بازار محتاطانه اما نه بدبینانه است. اگرچه گاوها فاقد ترویج قاطع هستند، اما موقعیت کلی همچنان ترجیح ریسک‌گریزی را نشان می‌دهد. انتظارات بازار برای نقطه عطف سیاست نرخ بهره ایالات متحده به طور فزاینده‌ای روشن می‌شود و احساسات احتیاطی در برابر رویدادهای ژئوپلیتیکی نیز در حال افزایش است. اگرچه معامله‌گران قبل از انتشار داده‌های NFP در حاشیه قرار دارند، اما تحلیلگران بر این باورند که عقب‌نشینی‌ها به عنوان فرصتی برای شکار ارزان (bargain hunting) در نظر گرفته می‌شود، که نشان می‌دهد اجماع بازار همچنان تمایل به صعودی بودن طلا در میان‌مدت دارد. چشم انداز آینده 👇 چشم انداز کوتاه‌مدت: روند کوتاه‌مدت طلا به عملکرد گزارش NFP (NFP) در روز جمعه بستگی دارد. اگر گزارش حقوق و دستمزد غیرکشاورزی (non-farm) همچنان ضعیف باشد، باعث می‌شود طلا از مقاومت 3430 دلار عبور کند و به سرعت اوج قبلی 3499 دلار را آزمایش کند. برعکس، اگر گزارش (report) به طور غیرمنتظره‌ای قوی باشد، ممکن است امکان عقب‌نشینی به حمایت 3300 دلار وجود داشته باشد. چشم انداز میان‌مدت و بلندمدت: در پس زمینه افزایش عدم اطمینان سیاسی جهانی و تقویت انتظارات از تغییر سیاست توسط فدرال رزرو، احتمال حفظ روند صعودی طلا نسبتاً زیاد است، به ویژه با انتظار تسهیل حاشیه‌ای نقدینگی دلار آمریکا. نقش دوگانه طلا به عنوان یک پناهگاه امن و ابزار پوشش ریسک دارایی همچنان مورد علاقه بازار بود. XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD

The US ADP employment report for May was released as scheduled at 8:15, and the data was far below market expectations, triggering a violent market reaction. According to the ADP National Employment Report, the US private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, far below the market expectation of 110,000, the lowest increase since March 2023. Compared with the revised 60,000 new jobs in April, the slowdown in the labor market has further emerged. Although this data, known as the "small non-agricultural", is not directly equivalent to the non-agricultural employment report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics to be released on Friday, as a leading indicator, it has ignited the market's heated discussion on the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.Market immediate reaction: The dollar plunged and gold surgedAfter the data was released, the financial market responded quickly. The US dollar index plunged by about 20 basis points in the short term, hitting a low of 98.9783, breaking the 99 mark, and is currently at 99.0442, showing the market's sensitivity to weak employment data. The U.S. bond market was also under pressure, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield falling 0.58% to 4.421% during the day, reflecting investors' growing concerns about slowing economic growth. At the same time, spot gold rose by $6 in the short term, reaching a high of $3,354.52 per ounce, and is currently trading at $3,352.53 per ounce, highlighting the rising risk aversion sentiment.Institutional investors quickly captured the weak signal of the data. Some analysts said, "The ADP data was far below expectations, only 37,000, the lowest in more than two years. The trend is obvious, and the U.S. recruitment momentum is losing." Retail traders have more complicated emotions. Some traders pointed out: "ADP expected 112,000, but the actual number was only 111,000, slightly below expectations, which may become a trigger for the dollar to sell." In contrast, before the data was released, the market's expectations for the ADP data were relatively optimistic. The market had predicted: "If the ADP data is significantly lower than 112,000, the market may panic due to the slowdown of the employment engine." The actual data was far lower than this expectation, verifying the cautious judgment of some traders.Fed rate cut expectations: market sentiment turns to cautious optimismThe unexpected weakness of the ADP data adds a new variable to the Fed's rate cut expectations. Recently, market discussions on the Fed's monetary policy have heated up due to economic uncertainty caused by tariff rhetoric. Previously, the Fed's March meeting statement adjusted "uncertainty in the economic outlook" to "increased uncertainty", suggesting concern about the downside risks of the economy. The sluggish performance of the ADP data in May further reinforced this concern, and some institutions believe that this may prompt the Fed to reassess the pace of rate cuts.After the data was released, some institutions pointed out: "Job growth has slowed sharply, combined with the JOLTS job vacancy data (1.03 vacancies per unemployed person in April), the labor market is sending a danger signal." Retail traders believe that the timely ADP data has led to a short-term decline in the US dollar, but they are still bullish on the US dollar in the medium and long term. This view was partially fulfilled after the data was released.From a broader market sentiment perspective, the ADP data has exacerbated investors' concerns about an economic slowdown. Well-known institutions pointed out that the labor market continued to cool down under the uncertainty brought about by tariff rhetoric, and companies' willingness to recruit declined. Some companies only selectively filled vacancies and waited for the economic environment to become clear. In contrast, in the last quarter of 2024, ADP employment data showed strong resilience, such as 164,000 new jobs in December and 183,000 new jobs in January, both exceeding market expectations. The sharp decline in May data marks a shift from resilience to weakness in the labor market, which may provide the Federal Reserve with more room for interest rate cuts.Market trend impact: short-term volatility and long-term uncertainty coexistAfter the release of ADP data, the market fluctuated significantly in the short term. The rapid decline of the US dollar index reflects investors' reassessment of the economic outlook, while the rise of gold indicates an increase in safe-haven demand. The euro was boosted against the US dollar and is currently trading around 1.14, in line with the three-month target price predicted by recent institutions. It is worth noting that the total amount of speculative bets on the euro is close to US$12 billion, and traders are generally bullish on the euro, but if the exchange rate falls back to the 1.09-1.10 range, bulls may face the risk of losses. This dynamic echoes the dollar weakness caused by the ADP data, which may further push up the euro in the short term.In the U.S. stock market, the reaction after the data was released was relatively mild, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq index futures fell slightly in pre-market trading, indicating that the market's concerns about the economic slowdown have intensified. In contrast, when the ADP data for October 2024 was released (an increase of 233,000, exceeding expectations), U.S. stocks had a short-term rise. The current market sentiment is more cautious, and investors are waiting for Friday's non-farm data to confirm the true state of the labor market.From a historical perspective, the ADP data is consistent with the long-term trend of the non-farm payrolls report, but short-term fluctuations are not completely related. The ADP data in February 2025 only added 77,000, a 7-month low, and the non-farm data was also weak afterwards, triggering market concerns about a recession. The sluggish performance of the ADP data this time may indicate that the non-farm data on Friday will also be lower than the expected 125,000, which will further increase market volatility.Future trend outlook: Non-farm data is the key, and expectations of interest rate cuts may dominate the marketLooking ahead, Friday's non-farm payrolls will become the focus of the market. Institutions generally expect 130,000 new non-farm payrolls in May and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%. If the non-farm data also falls short of expectations, expectations of a Fed rate cut may further increase, the US dollar index may continue to be under pressure, and safe-haven assets such as gold are expected to continue their gains. On the contrary, if the non-farm data exceeds expectations, the market may reassess the resilience of the labor market, and the US dollar may rebound.Retail investor sentiment shows that traders have great differences in their views on short-term market trends. Some traders believe that "this week's initial jobless claims and non-farm data will determine the direction of the market, and ADP is just a prelude." Institutions are more concerned about long-term trends. Well-known institutions analyzed that "the slowdown in the labor market may prompt the Fed to release a clearer signal of a rate cut in its interest rate decision on June 19." Combined with historical data, after the weak ADP data in August 2024, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September rose to 45%, driving a short-term rebound in US stocks. In the current market environment, a similar scenario may repeat itself.Overall, the unexpected weakness of the ADP employment data in May sounded the alarm for the market. The signal of a slowing labor market and the economic uncertainty caused by tariff rhetoric have made investors more sensitive to the expectations of the Fed's policies. In the short term, the US dollar may continue to be under pressure, while assets such as gold and the euro are expected to benefit. In the long term, continued weakness in the labor market may force the Fed to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts, but the results of Friday's non-farm data will be crucial. Traders need to pay close attention to subsequent data and the Fed's statements to capture opportunities in the market with increased volatility. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD

قیمت طلا (XAU/USD) در طول جلسه معاملاتی آسیا در روز سه شنبه اندکی عقب نشینی کرد ، عمدتاً به دلیل بازگشت متوسط ​​دلار از پایین شش هفته و بهبودی در احساسات. افزایش یک شبه دارایی های ریسک باعث تضعیف تقاضای امن و ایمن می شود و باعث می شود برخی از گاوهای طلایی سود کسب کنند. با این حال ، بازار نسبت به اوضاع جهانی هوشیار است. ادامه گسترش کسری مالی ایالات متحده ، تشدید تنش های تجاری بین قدرتهای آسیایی و ایالات متحده و عدم موفقیت دور دوم مذاکرات صلح بین اوکراین و روسیه ، از این ریسک ریسک بازار حمایت می کند و حمایت از طلای آخر هفته ، رئیس جمهور ایالات متحده Trump متهم قدرتهای آسیایی به نقض توافق نامه های اولیه از 25 صد درصد است. دولت آمریکا همچنین از کشورها خواسته است که تا 8 ژوئیه بهترین پیشنهادات تجاری خود را ارائه دهند و نشان می دهد که موقعیت آن در مورد تعرفه ها سخت تر می شود. علاوه بر این ، انتظارات سیاست فدرال فدرال نیز پشتیبانی مهمی از قیمت های طلا را ارائه می دهد. با وجود بازگشت مجدد کوتاه مدت به دلار آمریکا ، بازار هنوز انتظار دارد که فدرال رزرو حداقل دو کاهش نرخ بهره 25 پایه را در سال 2025 کاهش دهد. نظرات چندین مقام فدرال فدرال در این هفته نشان می دهد که اگر روند عقب نشینی تورم ادامه یابد و عدم اطمینان سیاست ادامه یابد ، ممکن است زمان کاهش نرخ بهره به وجود بیاید. رئیس جمهور فدرال فدرال شیکاگو خاطرنشان کرد: جایی برای کاهش نرخ بهره در 12-18 ماه آینده وجود دارد. پس از شکستن منطقه 3324-3326 دلار ، قیمت طلا همچنان رو به افزایش است و از منطقه مقاومت کلیدی 3355 دلار شکسته شد. در حال حاضر ، این موقعیت به پشتیبانی تبدیل شده است. اگر تعدیل کوتاه مدت در زیر این منطقه قرار نگیرد ، به عنوان یک فرآیند تأیید برای عقب نشینی در نظر گرفته می شود. پشتیبانی پایین تر به ترتیب 3324 دلار و 3300 دلار است. پس از گذشت ، ممکن است سطح 3286-3285 دلار را آزمایش کند. شرایط مقاومت بالایی ، اگر قیمت طلا از علامت عدد صحیح 3400 دلاری شکسته شود ، فضای حرکت رو به بالا را باز می کند ، با هدف در حال نگاه به منطقه 3430-3432 دلار است. اگر حرکت ادامه یابد ، انتظار می رود مجموعه تاریخی مرتفع در ماه آوریل دوباره به چالش بکشد و hit سطح روانشناختی مهم 3500 دلار. نظر ویرایشگر: بازار فعلی در یک جنگ جنگی است که بین قیمت کوتاه مدت دلار آمریکا و انتظار می رود که انتظار می رود ، اما عوامل بنیادی چندگانه ، هنوز هم برای طلای صعود می کنند ، به ویژه از نظر ریسک های رونق یافته و رشد ناپایداری مالی. انتظار می رود قیمت های گولد پس از بازگشت به حمایت از نزدیک 3،355 دلار ، روند صعودی خود را از سر بگیرند. به راهنمایی های غیر کشاورزی data که روز جمعه با دلار و طلای آمریکا منتشر می شود ، توجه کنید. Xauusd Xauusd Gold Xauusd Gold Xauusd

Spot Gold دستاوردهای داخلی خود را ادامه داد و در جلسه اروپا به یک هفته یک هفته نزدیک 3،359 دلار رسید. نگرانی در مورد رو به وخامت وضعیت مالی در ایالات متحده ، همراه با انتظار کلی بازار مبنی بر اینکه فدرال رزرو دوباره نرخ بهره را در سال 2025 کاهش می دهد ، باعث شده است که دلار به پایین ماهانه کاهش یابد. این روند پشتیبانی مهمی را برای Gold.fundental Analysisu ارائه داده است. S. اقتصادی data نشان داد که فشارهای تورمی همچنان به سهولت ادامه می یابد. Data منتشر شده توسط ایالات متحده جمعه گذشته نشان داد که شاخص قیمت مصرف شخصی (PCE) در ماه آوریل 2.1 ٪ نسبت به سال گذشته افزایش یافته است و از فوریه 2021 به پایین ترین سطح جدید رسیده است. شاخص اصلی قیمت PCE ، که از قیمت مواد غذایی و انرژی بی ثبات ، در سال گذشته 2.5 ٪ افزایش یافته است ، از 2.7 ٪ در ماه مارس کاهش یافته است. این data بیشتر انتظارات بازار را برای فدرال رزرو برای کاهش نرخ بهره تقویت کرد. کریستوفر والر ، فرماندار ذخیره فدرال روز دوشنبه گفت که حتی اگر سیاست تعرفه دولت Trump ممکن است به طور موقت فشارهای قیمت را افزایش دهد ، نرخ کاهش اواخر امسال هنوز امکان پذیر است. معامله گران همچنان شرط می بندند که فدرال رزرو نرخ بهره را در ماه سپتامبر کاهش می دهد و انتظار دارد که در ماه دسامبر کاهش نرخ دیگری را کاهش دهد. چندین عضو FOMC در این هفته صحبت کرد ، از جمله حضور رئیس جمهور فدرال جروم پاول بعداً در روز دوشنبه ، که سرنخ های مهمی در مورد چشم انداز سیاست های پولی ارائه می دهد. طبق رویترز ، خطرات ژئوپلیتیکی همچنان گرم می شوند. اوکراین در آستانه دور دوم مذاکرات مستقیم صلح ، حمله هواپیماهای بدون سرنشین در مقیاس بزرگ به فرودگاه های نظامی را در پنج منطقه روسیه آغاز کرد. در همین حال ، اسرائیل به شدت دخالت در این حادثه را که باعث کشته شدن حداقل 30 فلسطینی شد و حماس را به شلیک به غیرنظامیان گرسنه که برای دریافت کمک های بشردوستانه جمع شده بودند ، متهم کرد. این تنش های ژئوپلیتیکی پشتیبانی بیشتری را برای طلای دارایی ایمن به دست آورد. تکنیکی: از نمودار روزانه ، Spot Gold با موفقیت از منطقه مقاومت کلیدی 3325-3326 دلار عبور کرد و باعث هجوم خرید فنی شد. قیمت زیر بولینگر فوقانی Band با 3409.08 دلار در حال اجرا است ، مسیر میانی با قیمت 3295.04 دلار پشتیبانی پویا را ارائه می دهد ، و مسیر پایین تر 3181.00 دلار پشتیبانی دور است. مقاومت مهم در بالا 3،400 دلار است و این نشان می دهد 3،430 $ بالا ، و پشتیبانی از زیر 3،300 دلار و 3،300 دلار و 3،300 دلار و 3،250 دلار 23.11 و خط DIF 22.85 است. فاصله باریک بین دو خط نشان می دهد که یک سیگنال متقاطع به سمت بالا ممکن است ظاهر شود. در شرایط نشانگر RSI ، RSI 14 روزه 56.63 است که در منطقه خنثی قرار دارد و نشان می دهد که هنوز جایی برای رشد وجود دارد. نشانگر RSI یک روند رو به بالا را نشان می دهد ، و ارتباط مثبت با روند قیمت را تشکیل می دهد ، و تأیید اثربخشی روند رو به بالا. فشار عمومی بر بازار سهام نشان دهنده کاهش اشتهای ریسک و وجوه flow به دارایی های سنتی ایمن مانند طلا است. شاخص دلار آمریکا به پایین ماهانه کاهش یافته و پشتیبانی بیشتری از قیمت طلا دارد. انتظارات بازار از تغییر سیاست پولی فدرال رزرو دائماً در حال گرم شدن است. کاهش نرخ بهره در ماه سپتامبر تقریباً نتیجه گیری نهایی است و انتظارات از کاهش نرخ بهره دیگر در ماه دسامبر نیز در حال افزایش است. این هفته ها در حال تماشای سخنان فشرده مقامات فدرال رزرو این هفته ، به ویژه سخنان پاول ، برای سرنخ های بیشتر در مورد سیاست های پولی هستند. در همین زمان ، اقتصادی مهم data در ابتدای ماه منتشر می شود ، از جمله PMI تولید ISM در روز دوشنبه ، که آخرین ارزیابی از سلامت اقتصاد ایالات متحده را به بازار ارائه می دهد. عدم اطمینان ژئوپلیتیکی همچنان ادامه دارد و اوضاع در اوکراین و تنش در خاورمیانه پشتیبانی مداوم تقاضای امن برای طلا را فراهم می کند. چشم انداز ترم-تورم: با پیشرفت های فنی و اصول مثبت ، انتظار می رود طلا در کوتاه مدت 3،400 دلار دور را آزمایش کند. اگر می تواند به طور موثری از این موقعیت عبور کند ، فضای بیشتری را برای رشد به بالا 3،430 دلار باز می کند. با این حال ، معامله گران نسبت به فشار سودآوری احتیاط می کنند ، و منطقه 3،325-3330 دلار به یک پشتیبانی مهم تبدیل شده است. چشم انداز طولانی مدت: انتظارات فدرال رزرو از یک چرخه کاهش نرخ ، ادامه خطرات ژئوپلیتیکی و نگرانی در مورد وضعیت مالی ایالات متحده به حمایت از روند میان مدت و طولانی مدت طلا ادامه داد. با این حال ، اگر اقتصادی ایالات متحده data قوی تر از حد انتظار باشد یا موضع فدرال فدرال به لرزه در می آید ، ممکن است سود طلا را محدود کند. معامله گران نگران اثربخشی پشتیبانی میان مدت 3،250 دلار هستند و از دست دادن این موقعیت ممکن است الگوی رو به بالا را تغییر دهد. طلای Xauusd طلای Xauusd

1. محرک های اصلی خطرات مربوط به جبهه و سیاسی ، تعداد رویدادهای "قو سیاه" در آستانه دور دوم مذاکرات صلح بین روسیه و اوکراین رخ داده است: فروپاشی پل ها در دو کشور روسی ، نابودی 41 بمب افکن استراتژیک روسی توسط اوکراین ، و استعفای اوضاع و احریم. ادامه: ایران ادعا می کند که در هر زمان آماده دفاع از فضای هوایی خود است ، و نیروهای مسلح حوثی ها از موشک های هیپرسونیک برای حمله به فرودگاه های اسرائیلی استفاده می کنند. سیاست های اصلی بارها و بارها برنامه های بازار را برای افزایش تعرفه های فولادی از 25 ٪ به 50 ٪ ایجاد کرده است ، و اتحادیه اروپا اعلام کرده است که این اقدامات متقابل را انجام می دهد ، تشدید نگرانی های جهانی تجارت جهانی. دادگاه تجدیدنظر فدرال ممنوعیت تعرفه های ترامپ را به حالت تعلیق درآورد ، و عدم اطمینان سیاست از تقاضای ایمن-هون پشتیبانی می کند. سیاست ذخیره فدرال و اقتصادی data Gamethe U. S. تورم PCE data برای ماه آوریل ضعیف بود (2.1 ٪ نسبت به سال گذشته) ، و شرط بندی بازار مبنی بر اینکه احتمال کاهش نرخ در ماه سپتامبر به 87 ٪ افزایش یافته است ، اما مقامات فدرال تأکید کردند که بیشتر data برای ارزیابی خطر ابتلا به رکود مورد نیاز است. شاخص دلار در معاملات اولیه به 99.33 (پایین دو هفته) سقوط کرد و پشتیبانی از قیمت گذاری کوتاه مدت برای طلا را فراهم کرد. فاکتورهای پشتیبانی طولانی مدت بانکهای مرکزی همچنان به خرید طلا ادامه می دهند: حجم خرید در سال 2024 بیش از 1000 تن است و در آوریل واردات طلای چین می شود hit یک 11 ماهه بالا و قیمتی را به دست آورد. از مرکز قیمت طلا .2. سطح فنی کلیدی سطح پشتیبانی: کوتاه مدت: 3280-3286 (4 ساعته بولینجر band مسیر میانی + شکاف). پشتیبانی از پشتیبانی: 3260-3270 (خط روند هفتگی ، تقسیم به 3245). سطح مقاومت: فشار کلیدی: 3325-3334 (کانال های قبلی + Daily Trackthrough Trackthrough). 3400) سیگنال تکنیکی: واگرایی روزانه MACD پایین ، تعمیر 4 ساعته RSI Oversold ، اما سرکوب دو برابر بالاتر از 3330.3 وجود دارد. استراتژی بهینه استراتژی شرت (Intraday) استراتژی طولانی (کشش و طولانی): شرایط ورود: بازگشت به دامنه 3286-3292 دامنه و تثبیت ، و شاخص دلار آمریکا از طریق 99.60.TARGET: 3310 → 3334 ، از دست دادن توقف: زیر 3280.short (Resport and Resport). مقاومت ، یا شاخص دلار آمریکا در 99.80 تثبیت می شود. هدف: 3286 3300 ، از دست دادن: بالاتر از 3340. طرح بندی مدت زمان (1-2 هفته) منطق صعودی: خریدهای طلای بانک مرکزی + خطر ابتلا به ریسک + عادی سازی از ساخت و سازهای طولانی مدت به سمت بالا حرکت می کند. 3230 ، هدف 3350-3400.IV. هشدار خطر و رویدادهای پاسخ به رویداد: نتایج مذاکرات صلح روسی و اوکراین (مذاکرات استانبول): اگر مذاکرات از بین برود ، ریسک ریسک افزایش می یابد و قیمت طلا ممکن است hit 3350 ؛ اگر مذاکرات هموار پیش برود ، قیمت طلا سرکوب شد. 10: 00 US ISM تولید PMI: اگر پایین تر از 48 باشد (ارزش قبلی 48.7) ، انتظار کاهش سرعت اقتصادی و سود طلا را تقویت می کند. نقاط کنترل نقاط کنترل: کنترل موقعیت: 2 ٪ از کل وجوه ، متوسط ​​متوسط ​​5 ٪ ؛ نسبت حاشیه حسابهای اهرم بالا <10 ٪. از دست دادن توقف استریت: کاهش موقعیت ها قبل از data برای جلوگیری از نوسانات ناشی از ISM data طلای Xauusd Gold Xauusd Xauusd