تحلیل تکنیکال David_financial_analyst درباره نماد PAXG در تاریخ ۱۴۰۴/۳/۱۹

On Monday (June 9), spot gold (XAU/USD) once fell below the important mark of $3,300. Boosted by factors such as the dollar correction, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the intensification of geopolitical tensions, it rebounded to around $3,328 during the day. However, due to the cooling of the Fed's expectations for rate cuts this year, the bullish momentum is insufficient, the rebound is limited, and the overall European session remains in a range consolidation pattern.Fundamental analysis:The market is playing a game around the direction of the Fed's policy. Although the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in May was 139,000, higher than the expected value of 130,000, the revised 147,000 from the previous value did not significantly boost the dollar. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage growth rate was 3.9%, which was also slightly higher than market expectations. The overall performance of the data was solid, which weakened the possibility of a rapid rate cut this year.At the same time, the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit and the decline in U.S. Treasury yields suppressed the U.S. dollar. In addition, the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza continued, providing safe-haven support for gold, but the impact was limited and failed to push prices to break through the upper resistance.Technical aspects:From the daily chart, spot gold has been fluctuating and bottoming out since the high of $3499.83. The current Bollinger Bands are in a sideways narrowing pattern, with the upper track at $3424.13 and the lower track at $3189.53. The middle track of the Bollinger Bands is at $3306.83, and the gold price is fluctuating around the middle track.The daily K-line shows that in recent days, there have been many small positive and small negative staggered real K-lines, indicating that the forces of both long and short sides are balanced, and it is currently in a typical box oscillation range (US$3250-3380). The short-term support level is at $3250. If it is lost, it will drop to the lower track of the Bollinger Band at $3189; the upper resistance is concentrated at $3380, and it is expected to test the April high area again after breaking through.The MACD indicator shows that the DIFF line and the DEA line are running above the zero axis, and the bar chart changes alternately between red and green, and the momentum shows a continuous convergence trend. This pattern indicates that the trend direction is unclear. The current market structure is a typical oscillating market with a lack of clear trend drivers. Analysts believe that if the subsequent gold price fails to effectively break through the middle track of the Bollinger Band and continue to rise, it is necessary to be vigilant about the accelerated downward risk after the MACD crosses downward.RSI (14) remains at 51.59, which is in the neutral area and has not yet entered the overbought or oversold range. It also supports the current state of oscillating consolidation. RSI has failed to form a new high for many days, suggesting that the market's buying power is limited and the bullish momentum is insufficient. If it falls below the key level of 50, it may indicate that the short-term bearish trend will be further clarified.Market sentiment observation:Currently, the gold market sentiment is in a cautious neutral state. The US dollar index is under pressure due to the US fiscal health issues and the downward trend of US Treasury yields, but the non-agricultural data has suppressed the Fed's expectations of a rapid interest rate cut this year. Although risk aversion still exists, it has not formed enough synergy to push up gold. The market is cautiously optimistic about the prospects of high-level negotiations between important economies, while being vigilant about the sudden fluctuations that may be caused by geopolitical risks. Overall, the short-term market lacks clear driving factors, and traders are cautious and tend to operate in a range.Market outlook:Short-term outlook:Gold prices rebounded quickly after losing the key support of $3,300, indicating that there is still strong buying support below. Currently, traders focus on the Bollinger middle rail of $3,306. If gold prices stand above it and break through $3,380 with large volume, it will open up room for rebound and further test the $3,420-3,450 area. On the contrary, if it falls below $3,250, it is necessary to be vigilant about the technical retracement to the Bollinger lower rail of $3,189.Medium- and long-term outlook:Analysts believe that in the context of global geopolitical conflicts, the expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, and the uncertainty of the monetary policy shift cycle, the medium- and long-term logic of gold is still supported. However, before the Fed's expectation of maintaining a "high interest rate for longer" policy is loosened, the path of gold's rebound may be tortuous, and it needs to rely on geopolitical or US dollar fluctuations to trigger trend market conditions. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD